No, It’s Really Not a ‘Race to the Bottom’ on Redistricting

Callais, combined with today’s court ruling in Virginia, has jolted Democrats and sent commentators into bemoaning an accelerating “race to the bottom” and, to paraphrase Jeff Zeleny on CNN this afternoon, the end to norms that have organized American politics and redistricting for generations.

I’d like to offer a significantly different view of the situation. What we have seen over recent months is that Democrats have largely abandoned the mode of the last decade plus in which with one hand they fought the partisan battles of the day and with the other assume the mantle of defending the political norms Republicans have already destroyed. In other words, it was the responsibility of Democrats both to be contestants and referees. Republicans violated norms; Democrats tried to uphold them. That of course meant no partisan battle was ever on equal terms and Republicans almost always won them.

Continue reading “No, It’s Really Not a ‘Race to the Bottom’ on Redistricting”

Insta-Pod Coming

With the big news out of Virginia this morning, in addition to the fallout from the Callais decision, we decided that an insta-pod edition of the podcast was important to bring you up to date with what all this means. Kate and I recorded one about an hour ago and it should be in your podcast feeds this afternoon. So if you’re eager to unpack this barrage of news, Kate and I will be answering those questions in this emergency edition of the podcast.

The Great Whitening Comes Without Irony or Shame

America’s Original Sin

Republicans stripping majority-Black Memphis, where 39-year-old Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., was assassinated 58 years ago, of its majority-Black congressional district takes its place in a rancid arc of American history that seems to be bending backwards.

The same folks who fought integration tooth and nail in the 1960s, continued to drag their feet in the 1970s and ’80s, and spent the intervening decades fomenting racial strife for their own electoral gains became the first people to insist — without irony or self-awareness, let alone repentance or shame — that racism was behind us.

Integration went from never to too soon to enough already.

One of the features of white supremacy, if you’re a white supremacist, is you get to expurgate your own sins.

You can shed the robe and hood. You can get cosmetic surgery, as David Duke literally did, and made yourself inoffensive and telegenic. You can craft elaborately self-serving legal theories stripped of overt racial animus. You can even flip the script and play indignant victim when accused of racism. But you never ever have to be accountable for America’s original sin.

In blue states, there will soon be a real tension between maximizing partisan gerrymandering to counter Republicans and maximizing minority representation. Once again, Black Americans will be asked, if only implicitly, to sacrifice for some greater good, to take the the long view, to settle for now.

Faced with the old burdens anew, State Rep. Justin J. Pearson (D), who was running for the eliminated congressional seat in Memphis, echoed civil rights leaders of the past in drawing on scripture: “This is not over. We will fight and will not stop until justice rolls down like waters and righteousness like an ever-flowing stream.”

Sign of the Times

BREAKING: Virginia Supreme Court Overturns Democratic Redistricting

The Virginia Supreme Court has just invalidated the state referendum that Democrats used to pick up an expected four seats.

The Great Whitening

  • Tennessee: Amid loud protests at the state capitol, the legislature passed and Gov. Bill Lee (R) signed into law a new congressional district map that eliminates the state’s sole majority-Black district, in Memphis. The NAACP quickly filed suit in state court challenging the new map under state law.
  • Alabama: The Alabama Senate could vote as soon as today on a plan to come back into special session later this year, void the results of the congressional primary set for later this month, revert to the 2023 map that eliminates one of the state’s two Black-held seats, and re-run the congressional primaries. It’s all dependent on the Roberts Court lifting an injunction that bars Alabama from using the 2023 map.
  • South Carolina: The state Senate adjourned for the week without taking up a state House-passed measure that would give the the legislature the option of coming back into special session this summer and eliminating the state’s sole majority-Black district. A Senate vote could come next week, but some GOP senators remain leery that the newly released map would actually net Republicans more House seats.

Alito Cited Misleading Data

In his majority opinion in the landmark Louisiana v. Callais case, Justice Samuel Alito cited voter turnout numbers in the state that were based on a misleading data analysis provided by the Trump DOJ, The Guardian reports.

Must Read

A great piece by TPM’s Josh Kovensky: A unique feature of Texas’ electoral system that allows county political parties to run primaries gave the local GOP in Dallas a sandbox in which to build its ideal election. It was a disaster.

Trump DOJ Watch

Sweeping up a few developments that got pushed to the backburner because of the GOP redistricting-palooza in the South:

  • FBI Director Kash Patel has ordered polygraphs of more than two dozen members of his team as part of his criminal leak investigation into who leaked details of his alleged on-the-job drinking and other proclivities to The Atlantic.
  • Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche: “I wake up with a very clean conscience every morning. We are absolutely doing nothing but what we should be doing at the Department of Justice.”
  • The Trump DOJ is attempting to sabotage E. Jean Carroll’s $83.3 million jury verdict against Donald Trump for defaming her by seeking to intervene and asking the Supreme Court to replace Trump as defendant with the United States. “That would require dismissal of the case because the federal government can’t be sued for defamation,” as Politico reports.

Quote of the Day

“As with every other aspect of the norms and best practices of the Department of Justice, Blanche, consumed by a desire to impress the president, has turned the standard to underpromise and overdeliver on its head.”—Former U.S. Attorney Harry Litman

Jan. 6 Never Ends

A federal judge in Georgia denied Fulton County’s request for the FBI to return the 2020 ballots it seized as part of DOJ’s Big Lie “investigation” of Trump’s election loss.

In related news: Lawfare has obtained and published part of the investigative file in the since-abandoned RICO case brought by Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis over Trump’s interference in the state’s 2020 election.

Special Counsel to Investigate DOJ Lawyer

The federal judges in Rhode Island have appointed a special counsel to investigate whether a Trump DOJ lawyer should be disciplined for failing to disclose to one of the judges an outstanding arrest warrant on murder charges for an ICE detainee she ordered released. Despite telling the DOJ attorney not to disclose the warrant, the Trump DHS then attacked the judge as an “activist Biden judge” for the release.

Mass Deportation Watch

Some of the week’s most important developments:

  • In the original Alien Enemies Act case, the ACLU is attempting to salvage U.S. District Judge James Boasberg’s contempt of court inquiry into the Trump administration’s conduct by asking the full D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals to overrule a Trump-appointee-heavy three-judge panel that blocked Boasberg’s efforts.
  • The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals became the second appeals court to reject the Trump administration policy of mandatory detention of undocumented immigrants without bond hearings. That makes two circuits opposed and two in favor of the administration’s radical new interpretation of a 30-year-old law. A fifth appeals court, the 7th Circuit, deadlocked on the issue earlier this week.

Trump Tariffs Blocked Again

The Court of International Trade overturned new tariffs that President Trump enacted to replace the tariffs previously blocked by the Supreme Court.

NEH Thumps DOGE

U.S. District Judge Colleen McMahon of Manhattan ruled Thursday that DOGE-driven cancellation of more than 1,400 previously approved grants by the National Endowment for the Humanities was unconstitutional.

Hot tips? Juicy scuttlebutt? Keen insights? Let me know. For sensitive information, use the encrypted methods here.

Virginia State Supreme Court Strikes Down Dem Redistricting Proposal

In a major loss for Democrats on Friday, the Virginia state Supreme Court rejected, in a 4-3 decision, the state’s recently approved redistricting proposal, which could have given Democrats four additional congressional seats, improving their chances of taking control of the U.S. House this year. 

Continue reading “Virginia State Supreme Court Strikes Down Dem Redistricting Proposal”

There’s an Obvious Reason Why The Republican Justices Sound So Nervous

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis.  It was originally published at Balls and Strikes.

Chief Justice John Roberts addressed a judicial conference in Hershey, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday and grumbled about the public’s purported failure to appreciate how impartial the Supreme Court is. “I think they view us as truly political actors,” said Roberts, “which I don’t think is an accurate understanding of what we do.” He lamented the perception that the justices are “making policy decisions” based on their personal views about how “things should be,” as opposed to what “the law provides.” 

He did so exactly one week after the Republican majority on the Supreme Court overrode the plain text of both the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution in order to destroy historic protections for voters of color. And about two weeks after the New York Times published internal memoranda revealing Roberts’s strikingly law-deficient rationales for deviating from the Court’s normal processes to block President Barack Obama’s signature climate policy. And about three weeks after Justice Clarence Thomas gave a speech in which he denounced progressivism as incompatible with “the basic premises of the Declaration of Independence,” and as “intertwined” with “Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, and Mao.”

Anyone with a passing familiarity with current events understands that Roberts’s argument — that the public is somehow mistaken about the Court’s function as the judicial arm of the Republican Party — is irreconcilable with reality. Even so, multiple justices are currently making the same claims. On May 6, for example, The New York Times published an interview with Justice Neil Gorsuch in which he emphasized that the Court decides “40 percent of our cases” unanimously. During an event on May 4, Justice Amy Coney Barrett similarly bemoaned the “narrative” that the Court decides “big cases” on party lines, claiming that that view was inconsistent with data, but that it “gets maybe more clicks or more people worked up.”

This raft of assurances about the Court’s impartiality is a continuation of Roberts’s decades-long effort to stave off threats to the Court’s unchecked power. During his confirmation hearings in 2005, for instance, Roberts famously said that “judges are like umpires” who apply rules rather than making them, and he pledged to remember that his job is “to call balls and strikes, and not to pitch or bat.” In a 2009 interview with C-SPAN, Roberts claimed that the Court is “not a political branch of government” because the public does not elect justices. “If they don’t like what we’re doing, it’s more or less just too bad,” he said. In 2025, when polling showed that 69 percent of Americans supported term limits for justices, Roberts published a report contending that life tenure has “served the country well.” 

Barrett and Gorsuch are now joining Roberts in insisting to the public, despite all evidence to the contrary, that the Court is just fine and there’s nothing to worry about. Their arguments haven’t been especially effective of late. Since Barrett’s confirmation yielded the current six-justice Republican majority in 2020, the Court’s public approval has been below 50 percent. Last year, it fell below 40 percent, for the first time since Gallup started conducting the poll in the early 2000s. And a 2024 AP poll found that 7 in 10 Americans believe the justices are primarily influenced by ideology. 

But it is useful to interrogate why the justices continue to put on their bravest faces and make this case in public. They like making bad decisions, and want to continue doing so unabated. But as more people recognize the reality of the Court, they may, as Barrett put it, get “worked up” — perhaps enough to start taking ideas like Supreme Court reform seriously. The conservative justices’ bet is that by insisting loudly and often that the Court isn’t broken, they can deter the public from demanding that lawmakers fix it.

FCC Chair Brendan Carr is Target for Congressional Oversight If Dems Defy Odds, Take Senate

The people who pay attention to this stuff — both the experts and people like you and me — have been skeptical of claims that Democrats will eke out a path to retaking the Senate in the fall. Regardless, and as they should, Democrats are beginning to look ahead to what they’d do with Senate control.

Continue reading “FCC Chair Brendan Carr is Target for Congressional Oversight If Dems Defy Odds, Take Senate”

Court Permanently Blocks Trump’s Newest Tariffs, Orders More Tariff Refunds

President Donald Trump’s signature economic policy hit another brick wall Thursday evening when the Court of International Trade overturned new tariffs Trump enacted to replace the tariffs blocked by the Supreme Court.

Continue reading “Court Permanently Blocks Trump’s Newest Tariffs, Orders More Tariff Refunds”

Louisiana Asks SCOTUS for Immediate Oral Arguments Over Mifepristone Restrictions Lifted Three Years Ago

Louisiana asked the Supreme Court Thursday to speed-run oral arguments in its case — if the Court maintains its stay on a lower court ruling that would reimpose in-person dispensing requirements on abortion pill mifepristone, barring the drug from being sent by mail.

Continue reading “Louisiana Asks SCOTUS for Immediate Oral Arguments Over Mifepristone Restrictions Lifted Three Years Ago”

U.S. Workers Are Getting Record-Low Compensation Based on Their Productivity

The widening rift between the haves and the have-nots continues to be borne out in federal data, as a Thursday Bureau of Labor Statistics report revealed U.S. workers are doing more and reaping less.

Workers are earning record low wages and other compensation compared to their labor output, according to the BLS productivity and costs report published Thursday. Called the “labor share,” this indicator essentially measures how much of the nation’s economic earnings is used to pay wages and other worker benefits. 

At 54.1%, workers are netting the lowest earnings compared to the income they’re producing since the data started being collected in 1947. Meanwhile, labor productivity increased 0.8%, output increased 1.5%, and people worked 0.7% more month over month. 

“I think it’s really disturbing news for workers,” Joseph McCartin, professor of labor history at Georgetown University, told TPM, “because it shows that even while the economy is growing, workers are getting a smaller and smaller share of the economic pie.”

Because the labor share represents the slice of worker productivity actually going to workers, it can also be used to indicate a growing divide between corporate earnings and people’s income. Wall Street reached new record highs Wednesday, a surge apparently tied in part to investors believing administration claims that the war in Iran is nearing its end, and in part to tech companies’ reported earnings.

“Ultimately, you can’t continue to have an economy that so skews towards the wealthy,” McCartin said. “And what these figures today show is that, yeah, probably Wall Street…is kind of jumping for joy because it means that stockholders are looking at increased profits that they don’t have to pay the workers.”

In January, the BLS reported the same record with a lower labor share figure. The agency told TPM the figure was revised, and Thursday’s publication represents the lowest labor share in nearly 70 years.

So, where are those buoyant corporate earnings going? To capital expenditures including shareholder dividends, according to commentary from the Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip.

“Capital, which includes businesses, shareholders and superstar employees, is triumphant, while the average worker ekes out marginal gains,” Ip wrote.

McCartin pointed to an ever-eroding labor movement as one cause for the decline in profit sharing between companies and their workers. 

“I think the present administration, while it has a rhetoric of being pro-worker, has not done anything about workers’ lack of power,” McCartin said. Workers need more power. They need more voice.”

The labor share has been falling for decades, so President Donald Trump’s economic and foreign policies can’t be blamed for the overall trend. But his anti-labor movement policies, anti-immigration campaign, costly tariffs, and even the Iran war are weighing on inputs that drive the working population and earning potential down. At the same time, the Republican president’s push for business deregulation and corporate tax cuts is a boon to companies.

The president inherited a recovering economy following the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting inflation spike which, while sticky, was on its way down. Trump then: eliminated hundreds of thousands of federal jobs, initiated a violent mass deportation campaign that fell far short of its stated deportation goals but still increased the number of people removed from the country or forced into hiding, executed an antediluvian tariff scheme that halted or reversed progress on inflation, and launched an ill-fated war in Iran that’s brought oil and gas prices to their highest levels in years.

In its April real earnings publication, the BLS reported hourly earnings were actually down month over month as higher prices ate up modest worker wage gains. During tax season, Republicans touted the president’s so-called working class tax cuts on overtime and tips, but a study from a slate of economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research found that spiking gas prices probably devoured any projected gains from higher tax returns.

For workers in the bottom two-thirds of the economy, the deteriorating situation is even more acute, said former BLS Commissioner William Beach.

“Certainly inflation continues to eat into take home pay and your purchasing power,” Beach told TPM. 

And the poorer you are, the higher your inflation rate is. 

“When we see an inflation rate of 3.5%,” Beach continued, “it probably is more like 4% in the bottom two-thirds.

Corporations are also investing in artificial intelligence, technological innovation that economists say will increase productivity and replace human workers. When those innovations will hit en masse is less clear, Beach and McCartin said. A March report from Goldman Sachs found widespread AI adoption will take around 10 years and gut 6-7% of jobs worked by people. Eventually, researchers at the investment banking firm found, AI could automate 25% of U.S. job tasks.

Beach cautioned, however, that Thursday’s reported labor share figure might be more closely related to Trump’s immigration policies than corporate greed. Trump’s mass removal of immigrants from the U.S. slowed the growth of the labor force by 50%, Beach told TPM.

“That share is the percentage of output that accrues to workers in the form of compensation,” Beach said. “And so if the total number of workers are growing less rapidly, then compensation is growing less rapidly. It doesn’t mean the individual worker is falling behind.”

But that logic doesn’t work for McCartin.

“If you take those immigrant workers out of the workforce, they’re not creating any of the profit,” McCartin said. “And the question is, what’s happened to the distribution of the wealth created in their absence going to the workers who are still being measured?

“And what we’re finding is they’re getting less.”

The Red State Scramble to Gerrymander Away Black Electoral Power Has Been More Blatant Than You’d Expect

Hello, and welcome back to The Franchise!

Red states are scrambling to redraw their congressional maps in the aftermath of the Supreme Court ruling last week that struck down Louisiana’s second Black-majority congressional district in Louisiana v. Callais. The decision obliterated the Voting Rights Act and paved the way for red states to reshape majority-Black congressional districts. In that sense, it has also revitalized the Trump administration’s once-floundering redistricting campaign, giving some red states the greenlight to squeeze in a new gerrymandered map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. 

But the implications of this rush to gerrymander away Black electoral power in the South will have sweeping and devastating impacts that extend far beyond this election cycle and Trump’s presidency. Here’s the latest:

Last week, Louisiana’s Republican Gov. Jeff Landry suspended an already-active congressional primary election to give state lawmakers the chance to approve new GOP-favoring maps that are expected to flip at least one of the state’s two majority-Black districts for Republicans. 

The suspension comes after more than 100,000 mail-in ballots had already been sent out for this May 16 primary election. 

Tennessee, Alabama, and South Carolina have followed suit.   

Last week, Tennessee Republican Gov. Bill Lee immediately called for a special session on redistricting, in the hopes of flipping the state’s only Democratic congressional seat Republican. On Wednesday, the GOP-controlled state House and Senate advanced the proposal, which, if adopted, will flip the only Democratic districts by carving out Shelby County, which includes Memphis, into three districts. U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN), in a post on X on Wednesday, called the proposal a “corrupt power grab that would destroy the Black community’s and our entire city’s voice.”

Meanwhile, Alabama Republican Gov. Kay Ivey similarly called upon the state legislature on Friday to convene a special session on redistricting. 

Per a 2025 federal court injunction, Alabama is not allowed to redraw its maps until 2030. But following the Callais decision, Republican Attorney General Steve Marshall filed an emergency petition with the Supreme Court to remove that injunction and clear the way for the state to go back to using a congressional map passed in 2023 that was struck down for being racially gerrymandered. 

On Wednesday, the Alabama Republican-controlled House approved a bill that would allow Republicans to flip a congressional seat. The proposal requires Ivey to convene a special primary if a federal court lifts the injunction on the earlier map.

South Carolina has also faced pressure from Trump to approve a new map, specifically one that targets Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D-SC) district. 

On Wednesday, the South Carolina House, in a vote along party lines, advanced a proposal that will allow lawmakers to convene a special session on redistricting. The proposal will now go to the Senate for a vote. 

For the most up-to-date info about this race to redraw maps across the South, you can check out TPM’s live coverage here, from Kate Riga and me.

As always, there’s a lot more to cover this week. Let’s dig in. 

DOJ Demands 2020 Fulton County Election Workers’ Personal Info

As my colleague Nicole LaFond reported this week, the DOJ is demanding that the Fulton County Board of Registration and Elections release the names and personal information of every single Fulton County election worker and volunteer from the 2020 election, per a subpoena filed in April.

It is a major escalation in the Trump administration’s supposed ongoing investigation into the 2020 election, which the public was tipped off to when the FBI raided Fulton County’s election hub and seized equipment and records from the 2020 election earlier this year. The back story:

In January, the FBI executed a search warrant at a Fulton County election office related to the 2020 election. As you may remember, Fulton County was bombarded with election conspiracy theories in 2020 and beyond. The MAGA conspiracy theorists spread baseless rumors about “suitcases” of illegal ballots, massive ballots dumps in favor of would-be President Joe Biden and ballot harvesting — all used to help Trump perpetuate the myth that the 2020 election was stolen from him. The feverish spread of conspiracy theories about Fulton County culminated in January 2021 with Trump calling Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to urge him to “find” votes needed to overturn the election results in Georgia. 

This latest subpoena in the Trump administration’s effort to keep lies about the 2020 election alive and well was initiated by U.S. attorney for the Middle District of North Carolina Dan Bishop — a former congressman who voted against certifying the 2020 election — who was given the task of overseeing election-related investigations by former Attorney General Pam Bondi.  

In response to these latest demands from the DOJ — which includes a demand for the names, addresses, emails and phone numbers of 2020 election workers — the Fulton County Board of Registrations and Elections filed a motion in a federal court to quash the subpoena.

“Its purpose is to target, harass, and punish the President’s perceived political opponents; it is grossly overbroad and untethered to any reasonable need; it cannot yield any evidence that could result in a criminal prosecution (because, among other things, the statutes of limitations have expired for any purported 2020 election crimes); it burdens the First Amendment rights of election workers and will chill their participation in elections; and it unreasonably interferes with Georgia’s sovereign authority to administer elections,” the motion reads.

Fulton County Chairman Robb Pitts told me in an interview this week that the long-term goal of the administration’s investigation is to “take over elections nationally.”

“We are the target, we have been the target, and we’ll continue to be the target for him and his followers,” Pitt said, referencing Trump and his fervent base of supporters. “This wasn’t surprising to me, who knows what’s next because they cannot get away from the fact they lost in 2020.”

Pitts added that he thinks this latest subpoena is just the latest example of the federal government misusing the criminal process. 

“It’s another act of outrageous federal overreach that is designed to, in my judgement, intimidate and chill participation in our elections in 2026, but also in 2028,” he told me. 

Pitts believes that this is just the beginning of a new era of federal government overreach in elections. As Pitt describes it, he thinks that the Trump administration will “take this show on the road and go to other states and other counties.”

We have already seen evidence of this trend, as the Trump DOJ has recently expanded its election probe to Arizona and Michigan

And in some even more bad news for Fulton County, on Wednesday, a federal judge denied a request by Fulton County officials that the seized materials from January be returned, ruling that the DOJ is not required to return the ballots it seized from the county. 

“The Court disagrees with Petitioners’ argument that the Affidavit is “woefully deficient” just because, in their view, allegations of intent are lacking,” U.S. District Judge J.P. Boulee wrote in his order. 

“While the Affidavit was certainly far from perfect, this is not a situation where an officer left out all the facts that might undermine probable cause or where an officer intentionally lied,” The order said.

“…I strongly disagree with the judge’s denial of Fulton County’s request for the FBI to return the election records it wrongly seized on January 28,” Pitts said in a statement.

An (Illegal) Call for Law Enforcement Officers at Polling Places in Detroit

In more disturbing election news, Michigan GOP Senate candidate and former congressman Mike Rogers recently told the Kalamazoo County GOP that he was working with the Republican National Committee to recruit former and current law enforcement officers to be poll watchers in Detroit, according to an audio recording obtained by The Detroit News

(Wayne County, which houses the city of Detroit, is one of the areas that Trump and his election deniers fixated on in the aftermath of the 2020 election, and the 2024 election as well. The Justice Department recently demanded the county turn over its 2024 ballots.) 

“And I’ve been telling them, ‘You know what, let’s put police officers — retired or off-duty police officers — as our poll watchers in Detroit.’ Because, go ahead: Try to intimidate them. Please,” Rogers reportedly said. 

“We’re trying to find them,” he continued. “I mean, they wouldn’t be able to wear their uniforms, but they would, you know, all you got to do is open your jacket and you see the badge on the belt, right?” Rogers added.

Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum told the Detroit Free News that Rogers is trying to “intimidate and disenfranchise the city with the largest concentration of people of color in the state.”

It is worth emphasizing here that it is a federal crime for anyone, including federal, state, or local officials, to intimidate voters. It’s also a crime for U.S. officials to deploy “armed men at any place where a general or special election is held.”

These remarks come against the backdrop of the Trump administration being dodgy and generally confusing about whether or not it would send ICE agents to polling places during the 2026 midterm elections. This is illegal, but the administration has not ruled it out. 

In Other Election News

TPM: Indiana Republicans Who Wouldn’t Cave to Trump Pressure See Sweeping Losses in Primaries

Politico: DeSantis signs Florida’s new GOP-friendly congressional map into law — and is swiftly sued

Iowa Public Radio: Iowa shares sensitive voter data with the Department of Justice