Yesterday, Lauren Egan — who authors The Bulwark’s newsletter about Democrats — sent out a newsletter edition entitled “Get Ready for the Dem Court-Expansion Litmus Test.” (Egan tends to be fairly dismissive of Democrats’ intentions, with a kind of mainstream media vibe.) Today Chief Justice John Roberts is complaining that the public is misinformed thinking that the Supreme Court is made up of corrupt political actors. As I’ve written repeatedly, there are deep inertia pools of opposition to Supreme Court reform. It’s a much heavier, though just as critical, lift than contesting the gerrymandering wars or abolishing the filibuster. But these and other hints show that a movement and a coherent push are beginning to take shape.
Continue reading “Are Democrats Warming to Reforming the Supreme Court?”Dallas Republicans Warned That Texas Was Turning Blue. Then They Wrecked an Election.
DALLAS – For this city’s Republican Party, the 2026 primaries were supposed to set a national example. Led by Col. Allen West, the party wanted to run the election as purely as it could: no electronic voting machines. A full hand count.
Continue reading “Dallas Republicans Warned That Texas Was Turning Blue. Then They Wrecked an Election.”The Annals of Self-Womping
Yesterday I wrote a post basically arguing for a broad resistance to allowing the avalanche of corrupt and criminal conduct under the second Trump administration to take on the color of normality and acceptability. The answer to that is broad criminal accountability. The post was entitled, “The Law is Coming.” This was partly a reference to a phrase I used frequently during the first Trump administration, after which the cause of accountability was at best uneven and ultimately a failure, a story we all know well and from bitter experience.
Continue reading “The Annals of Self-Womping”GOP Races to Entrench Structural Power Advantages
The Trump II Consolidation of Power
From the racist redistricting rush across the South to the weaponization of the Justice Department to the criminalizing of opposition ideology, we’re witnessing Trump Republicans using the power of the state to consolidate and entrench their own political power and squeeze out Democrats’ ability to meaningfully contest that power.
It’s happening at the federal and state level simultaneously. In the long term, it’s an attempt to create permanent or near-permanent structural advantages for the GOP, with a big lift from the Roberts Court. In the short term, it’s aimed at hobbling Democrats with criminal investigations (or threat thereof) from the Trump DOJ and on-the-fly redistricting to keep them from effectively slowing down the Republican putsch.
Let’s start with the latest on the GOP’s anti-Black redistricting bonanza.
The Great Whitening: South Carolina Jumps Into the Fray
South Carolina
Under pressure from President Trump, the state House in South Carolina has kicked off the process of congressional redistricting before this year’s midterms, with the goal of eliminating the state’s sole majority-Black seat, held by Rep. James Clyburn (D).
The state House passed a resolution late last night on a 87-25 party-line vote that opens the door to redistricting even after the legislative session ends on May 14. It doesn’t guarantee redistricting will happen, but it keeps GOP lawmakers’ options open and allows the pressure from MAGA forces to build.
The state Senate, where a two-thirds vote is required, is expected to vote on the resolution as soon as today. Trump is aggressively lobbying Republican state Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey, with phone calls on Monday and Tuesday, pushing him to fall in line, Politico reports. Massey has been a vocal opponent of redistricting, concerned it could actually cost the GOP seats in the House.
Qualifying for House races has already closed, and military ballots have already been mailed, but things have shifted dramatically in South Carolina since the Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais. Furthermore, Trump allies are trying to leverage his successful primarying of anti-redistricting statehouse Republicans in Indiana this week to increase the pressure on reluctant GOP lawmakers in the South.
Mississippi
In an interview with the Daily Caller, Gov. Tate Reeves (R) exhibited quite a bit of wobbliness over whether he’ll push to redraw congressional maps before the midterms. In a sign of the pressure he’s under, Reeves left open the possibility of expanding an already-called special session of the legislature to include congressional redistricting, even though House primary elections have already been held.
“No final decisions have been made on congressional redistricting,” Reeves said. “We’re also looking at whether any new maps may or may not apply in 2026 or 2028.”
The state’s sole majority-Black district is held by Rep. Bennie Thompson (D).
Alabama
In an extraordinary move, the Alabama House passed a contingent measure that requires the governor to call a special session for House redistricting this summer if the Supreme Court lifts an injunction barring the state from using a 2023 map with only one majority-Black district.
What makes it extraordinary is that it would void the results of the upcoming May 19 primary and hold do-over primaries for four of the seven congressional districts where the map would change.
Tennessee
In a special session of the legislature, Tennessee Republicans unveiled a new congressional district map that would eliminate the state’s sole majority-Black district, represented by Steve Cohen (D), who is white. A vote on the new map could come as soon as today.
The Big Picture on Louisiana v. Callais
Still unspooling the many implications of what happened at the Supreme Court last month:
- A critical point from Duncan Hosie in The Atlantic on how Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion hamstrings Congress from ever reinvigorating the Voting Rights Act:
But to view Callais as merely the final hit in the Voting Rights Act’s destruction is to miss its deeper ambition. The bigger shift is that Callais also closes off the possibility that a future Congress could respond with new legislation combating racial discrimination in the electoral system. Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion, joined by the other Republican appointees, rests on an interpretation of the Fifteenth Amendment that effectively bars Congress from remedying the very inequities Callais unleashes—inequities the amendment itself was designed to eradicate and prevent.
- Gaby Goldstein in TPM on the the decision’s devastating impact on Black representation in state legislatures:
Most analysis since Callais has focused on Congress. But the devastation in state legislatures may be as bad or worse, and the consequences even more immediate for people’s daily lives. … Nearly half of all majority-minority state legislative districts in the South could simply disappear.
A Second Redemption
The historical perspective on where Louisiana v. Callais fits into America’s fitful fight over its own racism:
Because Louisiana v Callais is, in many ways, the culmination of a “backlash” against multiracial democracy, and because it will in turn fuel the escalating reactionary countermobilization, it signifies the end of a distinct phase in U.S. history. The Second Reconstruction is over; we are into the second “Redemption” now.
The decision in Louisiana v. Callais may be the Roberts Court’s most radical and far-reaching yet, rivaled only by the 2022 elimination of the right to abortion. It will almost certainly usher in a bleaching of the nation’s legislative bodies—federal, state, and local—unlike anything this country has seen since the “Redemption” of 1873–1877 ended Reconstruction and returned white supremacists to power throughout the South.
Pay Attention to Virginia
The Trump DOJ launched two frontal attacks on elected Democrats in Virginia yesterday:
- The FBI raided the offices and business of Sen. L. Louise Lucas (D) of Portsmouth in what is reportedly a corruption probe that originated under the Biden administration but didn’t go anywhere in any public way until after it was reportedly pushed by then-acting U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan to boost Republicans before the midterm elections. Lucas, a Black woman, was one of the strongest, most outspoken proponents of Democrats’ recent mid-decade redistricting in Virginia.
- The Trump DOJ announced a civil rights probe of Steve Descano, the elected Democratic state prosecutor in Fairfax County, the state’s largest, over conservative complaints that he’s too lenient on criminal defendants who are undocumented immigrants. Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon trumpeted the election-year investigation in typically MAGA terms: “This investigation will uncover whether this prosecutor is putting the community at risk in offering sweetheart deals to illegal immigrants charged with serious crimes.”
Quote of the Day
“We have a Department of Justice today that targets people for criminal prosecution simply because the president doesn’t like them. … We have a department that fails to move on cases because they might uncover facts that are inconvenient to narratives the president would like to press.”—former Special Counsel Jack Smith, in a video obtained by the NYT of remarks he made to a private gathering last month in D.C.
Criminalizing Political Opposition
As TPM’s Kosh Kovensky reported, MAGA goofball Sebastian Gorka finally rolled out a long-awaited Trumpified national counterterrorism strategy that ropes in purportedly left-wing ideologies as terroristic:
In addition to cartels and Islamist terror groups, our national CT activities will also prioritize the rapid identification and neutralization of violent secular political groups whose ideology is anti-American, radically pro-transgender, and anarchist. We will use all the tools constitutionally available to us to map them at home, identify their membership, map their ties to international organizations like Antifa, and use law enforcement tools to cripple them operationally before they can maim or kill the innocent.
This is part of the MAGA long con of creating an amorphous shadowy oppositional strawman not just to repeatedly knock down but to justify using the powers of the state to stifle political opposition.
Hot tips? Juicy scuttlebutt? Keen insights? Let me know. For sensitive information, use the encrypted methods here.
Gorka Fumes Against the Left in New Counterterrorism Strategy
Sebastian Gorka released a new counterterrorism strategy on Wednesday, singling out “violent left-wing extremists,” “extreme transgender ideologies,” and “violent secular political groups whose ideology is anti-American, radically pro-transgender, and anarchist.”
Continue reading “Gorka Fumes Against the Left in New Counterterrorism Strategy”Americans Think That Maybe These Two Shouldn’t Be Talking About God
‘Do So With the Truth’
It’s not just the evangelicals who were incensed and wringing their hands at President Trump’s blasphemy after he shared an AI-generated painting of himself healing the sick, depicted as Jesus Christ alongside a series of patriotic images and people praying to him.
Continue reading “Americans Think That Maybe These Two Shouldn’t Be Talking About God”The Law Is Coming
I’m hoping to bring you some news on the DOJ-in-Exile front in the not-too-distant future. It was probably simply too early in the spring and summer of 2025. It’s not too early now. But the DOJ-in-Exile idea was and is part of a more general ambition and agenda — to create a baseline record, a predicate and an expectation of future accountability for the Trump administration’s criminal conduct. Some of that effort is a kind of opposition therapy, resisting the authoritarian aim of convincing the public that the law, the ecosystem of criminal accountability has disappeared. It heartens people. It provides a framework of expectation: the law hasn’t disappeared. We’re in an interregnum. It will return, as will accountability. The battle over expectations about the future is a central battle in any authoritarian takeover.
But it’s not solely a matter of heartening, strengthening the morale of the opposition. It is also very directly and literally laying the groundwork for criminal accountability for a renegade executive and all the corrupt actors and criminals who now populate the executive branch.
Continue reading “The Law Is Coming”Assume DOJ Criminal Conduct
And there you have it. As the White House licks its wounds after Virginia’s successful move to redistrict its House map and net Democrats as many as four new seats, the leader of that effort (and most high-profile advocate) has her office raided by the FBI in some hitherto unknown federal investigation. The fact that the Feds tipped Fox News to the raid on state Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas’s office probably tells us all we need to know about this FBI action.
We Aren’t Paying Enough Attention to What the SCOTUS VRA Decision Means for State Legislatures
This post is a part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis.
In the fog of the redistricting wars to come, it may be easy to remember the audacity of President Trump demanding state legislatures immediately redraw maximally rigged maps. But this didn’t come out of nowhere. It is the next logical step in decades-long sequence of events that have led, rather predictably, to this moment.
In 2021, after the Supreme Court’s decision in Brnovich v. DNC deeply eroded the Voting Rights Act, I wrote with FairVote’s David Daley that “a central goal of conservative jurisprudence is the carving back of federal protections, and the empowerment of states over vast swaths of social and civil life.” We warned that Chief Justice John Roberts had been “patiently preparing to dismantle Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act for 40 years,” and that “his careful long game may end in checkmate for majority rule as we know it.”
That checkmate has arrived. In Louisiana v. Callais, the Court’s 6-3 ruling gutted Section 2 — the last enforceable provision of the Voting Rights Act — by requiring plaintiffs to prove intentional racial discrimination while allowing partisan gerrymandering as a defense. As Justice Elena Kagan wrote in dissent, the “decision renders Section 2 all but a dead letter.”
The immediate headlines focused on Congress: the potential loss of as many as 19 House seats held by Democrats, including as much as 30% of the Congressional Black Caucus. These consequences are grave. But an equally consequential and far less discussed impact is what Callais means for state legislatures — the overlooked institutions that have quietly been growing in power over the past few decades, and that now hold more of it than ever, with even fewer guardrails.
Continue reading “We Aren’t Paying Enough Attention to What the SCOTUS VRA Decision Means for State Legislatures”The Iran War May Be the Beginning of the End of Fossil Fuel Dominance
This story was originally published by Grist. Sign up for Grist’s weekly newsletter here.
For almost half a century, the vast majority of climate experts have agreed on a solution to global warming: stop burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas. But despite the political efforts of governments across the world to promote replacing these fuels, fossil sources have remained a stubbornly large share of global energy — around 80 percent at last count.
But the war in Iran, which the United States and Israel launched two months ago this week, may turn out to be the push that dislodges fossil fuels’ place atop the world’s energy system. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway near Iran through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies flow, has been blocked since early March, with no relief in sight. This has created the biggest energy crisis in modern history. Twenty-five countries are now reporting critical road fuel, jet fuel, or heating oil shortages.
But unlike the oil shock of the 1970s, which occurred in a time when substitutes for fossil fuels were not yet powerful or cheap enough to build at scale, this disruption is happening as renewable energy sources are beginning to outcompete fossil fuels, providing countries with new energy options at costs that have plummeted in recent years.
Continue reading “The Iran War May Be the Beginning of the End of Fossil Fuel Dominance”