Inside TPM: David Kurtz

Here it is, due to popular demand, the latest episode of Inside TPM with executive editor David Kurtz. How did he come to join TPM? How does he approach the Morning Memo? What does an executive editor do? How does this election differ from others? Who will win the World Series? We go through it all, and more — hope you enjoy.

Latest Person To Give Alito A Gift: German Princess And ’80s Party Scenester-Turned-Catholic Reactionary

In 1985, Vanity Fair described Princess Gloria von Thurn und Taxis, a member of the German aristocracy, as “a wild version of her friend,” Princess Diana. Known in the tabloids as “Princess TNT,” she hosted royalty and celebrities such as Andy Warhol and Mick Jagger and was photographed endlessly sporting towering, technicolored hair and dresses reminiscent of disco balls.

Now, she hangs out with U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sam Alito.

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Philadelphia DA Steps In To Fight Musk’s Million-Dollar MAGA Lottery Scheme

As the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, actively campaigns for Donald Trump and pushes a daily, million-dollar giveaway stunt to influence voters in the upcoming presidential election, the Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office stepped in on Monday to attempt to shut down Musk’s endeavor.

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What To Know About The Ballot Drop Box Incidents In Oregon And Washington

The FBI, alongside local and state law enforcement, is investigating two incidents of ballot drop boxes catching fire on Monday in Portland, Oregon and Vancouver, Washington.

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Election Miscellany #1

I’m seeing more and more data points and testimonials – from both sides of the aisle – that the Democratic ground game in multiple states is superior to the Republican one, in many cases by a substantial degree. Now it’s Republicans who are starting to say it. For Republicans saying this is itself a get out the vote effort, warning of the danger to shake more Republican voters loose and get them to the polls. But looking at it in toto I think they’re saying it because they mean it.

Intelligence Expert Who Aired Early Warnings About Jan 6 Discusses Risks Ahead Of Election

January 6, 2021 is a day that will live in infamy. And nearly four years after the smoke cleared from the attack on the Capitol building, our election system remains under assault with former President Trump’s continuing, false insistence that he won the presidential race in 2020 becoming a core campaign issue for the Republican Party and a sprawling grassroots movement. 

Now, Election Day — and, with it, another electoral certification on Jan. 6, 2025 — is approaching alongside the specter of violence.

To understand what to expect, TPM spoke with an intelligence expert who was on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6 and has continued to monitor the far-right. 

Continue reading “Intelligence Expert Who Aired Early Warnings About Jan 6 Discusses Risks Ahead Of Election”

A Good Piece on Polling

We’ve discussed repeatedly in recent months how poll results aren’t just “the numbers” in some hard, incontestable sense. They include a set of assumptions about the nature of the electorate. For most TPM readers, this is a fairly straightforward point that doesn’t require much convincing or explanation. But this post by a professor at Vanderbilt provides a really helpful real-world illustration. Josh Clinton takes sample data and shows that by using different reasonable and good faith assumptions about the electorate he can get results ranging from Harris +.9 to Harris +8. Don’t pay attention to the fact that these results are all still in her favor. The point is that the assumptions baked into the poll can yield results 7 points apart. It could as easily be Trump +3 to Harris +4. Again, it’s one thing to understand this in the abstract. But the specific explanation and the concrete outputs tell the story in a different way.

If nothing else, this is why that 7 point spread is just a bright flashing neon light that many of us are disregarding or not even seeing while we’re obsessing about win or loss margins of like half a percentage point.

‘Put Them in Trauma’: Inside a Key MAGA Leader’s Plans for a New Trump Agenda

This article was first published by ProPublica and Documented. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

A key ally to former President Donald Trump detailed plans to deploy the military in response to domestic unrest, defund the Environmental Protection Agency and put career civil servants “in trauma” in a series of previously unreported speeches that provide a sweeping vision for a second Trump term.

In private speeches delivered in 2023 and 2024, Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, described his work crafting legal justifications so that military leaders or government lawyers would not stop Trump’s executive actions.

He said the plans are a response to a “Marxist takeover” of the country; likened the moment to 1776 and 1860, when the country was at war or on the brink of it; and said the timing of Trump’s candidacy was a “gift of God.”

ProPublica and Documented obtained videos of the two speeches Vought delivered during events for the Center for Renewing America, a pro-Trump think tank led by Vought. The think tank’s employees or fellows include Jeffrey Clark, the former senior Justice Department lawyer who aided Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election result; Ken Cuccinelli, a former acting deputy secretary in the Department of Homeland Security under Trump; and Mark Paoletta, a former senior budget official in the Trump administration. Other Trump allies such as former White House adviser Steve Bannon and U.S. Reps. Chip Roy and Scott Perry either spoke at the conferences or appeared on promotional materials for the events.

Vought does not hide his agenda or shy away from using extreme rhetoric in public. But the apocalyptic tone and hard-line policy prescriptions in the two private speeches go further than his earlier pronouncements. As OMB director, Vought sought to use Trump’s 2020 “Schedule F” executive order to strip away job protections for nonpartisan government workers. But he has never spoken in such pointed terms about demoralizing federal workers to the point that they don’t want to do their jobs. He has spoken in broad terms about undercutting independent agencies but never spelled out sweeping plans to defund the EPA and other federal agencies.

Vought’s plans track closely with Trump’s campaign rhetoric about using the military against domestic protesters or what Trump has called the “enemy within.” Trump’s desire to use the military on U.S. soil recently prompted his longest-serving chief of staff, retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, to speak out, saying Trump “certainly prefers the dictator approach to government.”

Other policies mentioned by Vought dovetail with Trump’s plans, such as embracing a wartime footing on the southern border and rolling back transgender rights. Agenda 47, the campaign’s policy blueprint, calls for revoking President Joe Biden’s order expanding gender-affirming care for transgender people; Vought uses even more extreme language, decrying the “transgender sewage that’s being pumped into our schools and institutions” and referring to gender-affirming care as “chemical castration.”

Since leaving government, Vought has reportedly remained a close ally of the former president. Speaking in July to undercover journalists posing as relatives of a potential donor, Vought said Trump had “blessed” the Center for Renewing America and was “very supportive of what we do,” CNN reported.

Vought did not respond to requests for comment.

“Since the Fall of 2023, President Trump’s campaign made it clear that only President Trump and the campaign, and NOT any other organization or former staff, represent policies for the second term,” Danielle Alvarez, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said in a statement. She did not directly address Vought’s statements.

Karoline Leavitt, his campaign’s national press secretary, added there have been no discussions on who would serve in a second Trump administration.

In addition to running his think tank, Vought was the policy director of the Republican National Committee’s official platform committee ahead of the nominating convention. He’s also an architect of Project 2025, the controversial coalition effort mapping out how a second Trump administration can quickly eliminate obstacles to rolling out a hard-right policy agenda.

As ProPublica and Documented reported, Project 2025 has launched a massive program to recruit, vet and train thousands of people to “be ready on day one” to serve in a future conservative administration. (Trump has repeatedly criticized Project 2025, and his top aides have said the effort has no connection to the official campaign despite the dozens of former Trump aides and advisers who contributed to Project 2025.)

Vought is widely expected to take a high-level government role if Trump wins a second term. His name has even been mentioned as a potential White House chief of staff. The videos obtained by ProPublica and Documented offer an unfiltered look at Vought’s worldview, his plans for a Trump administration and his fusing of MAGA ideology and Christian nationalism.

A Shadow Government in Waiting

In his 2024 speech, Vought said he was spending the majority of his time helping lead Project 2025 and drafting an agenda for a future Trump presidency. “We have detailed agency plans,” he said. “We are writing the actual executive orders. We are writing the actual regulations now, and we are sorting out the legal authorities for all of what President Trump is running on.”

Vought laid out how his think tank is crafting the legal rationale for invoking the Insurrection Act, a law that gives the president broad power to use the military for domestic law enforcement. The Washington Post previously reported the issue was at the top of the Center for Renewing America’s priorities.

“We want to be able to shut down the riots and not have the legal community or the defense community come in and say, ‘That’s an inappropriate use of what you’re trying to do,’” he said. Vought held up the summer 2020 unrest following George Floyd’s murder as an example of when Trump ought to have had the ability to deploy the armed forces but was stymied.

Vought’s preparations for a future Trump administration involve building a “shadow” Office of Legal Counsel, he told the gathered supporters in May 2023. That office, part of the Justice Department, advises the president on the scope of their powers. Vought made clear he wants the office to help Trump steamroll the kind of internal opposition he faced in his first term.

Historically, the OLC has operated with a degree of independence. “If, all of a sudden, the office is full of a bunch of loyalists whose only job is to rubber-stamp the White House’s latest policy directive, whose only goal is to justify the ends by whatever means, that would be quite dangerous,” said an attorney who worked in the office under a previous Republican administration and requested anonymity to speak freely.

Another priority, according to Vought, was to “defund” certain independent federal agencies and demonize career civil servants, which include scientists and subject matter experts. Project 2025’s plan to revive Schedule F, an attempt to make it easier to fire a large swath of government workers who currently have civil service protections, aligns with Vought’s vision.

“We want the bureaucrats to be traumatically affected,” he said. “When they wake up in the morning, we want them to not want to go to work because they are increasingly viewed as the villains. We want their funding to be shut down so that the EPA can’t do all of the rules against our energy industry because they have no bandwidth financially to do so.

“We want to put them in trauma.”

Vought also revealed the extent of the Center for Renewing America’s role in whipping up right-wing panic ahead of the 2022 midterms over an increase in asylum-seekers crossing at the U.S.-Mexico border.

In February 2022, Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich released a legal opinion claiming the state was under “invasion” by violent cartels and could invoke war powers to deploy National Guard troops to its southern border. The legally dubious “invasion” theory became a potent Republican talking point.

Vought said in the 2023 speech that he and Cuccinelli, the former top Homeland Security official for Trump, personally lobbied Brnovich on the effort. “We said, ‘Look, you can write your own opinion, but here’s a draft opinion of what this should look like,’” Vought said.

The nonpartisan watchdog group American Oversight later obtained an email in which Vought pitched the “invasion” framework to Brnovich.

Brnovich wrote in an email to ProPublica that he recalled multiple discussions with Cuccinelli about border security. But he added that “the invasion opinion was the result of a formal request from a member of the Arizona legislature. And I can assure you it was drafted and written by hard working attorneys (including myself) in our office.”

In the event Trump loses, Vought called for Republican leaders of states such as Florida and Texas to “create red-state sanctuaries” by “kicking out all the feds as much as they possibly can.”

“Nothing Short of a Quiet Revolution”

The two speeches delivered by Vought, taken together, offer an unvarnished look at the animating ideology and political worldview of a key figure in the MAGA movement.

Over the last century, Vought said, the U.S. has “experienced nothing short of a quiet revolution” and abandoned what he saw as the true meaning and force of the Constitution. The country today, he argued, was a “post-constitutional regime,” one that no longer adhered to the separation of powers among the three branches of government as laid out by the framers.

He lamented that the conservative right and the nation writ large had become “too secular” and “too globalist.” He urged his allies to join his mission to “renew a consensus of America as a nation under God.”

And in one of his most dramatic flourishes, he likened the 2024 election to moments in America’s history when the country was facing all-out war.

“We are here in the year of 2024, a year that very well [could] — and I believe it will — rival 1776 and 1860 for the complexity and the uncertainty of the forces arrayed against us,” Vought told his audience, referring to years when the colonies declared independence from Britain and the first state seceded over President Abraham Lincoln’s election. “God put us here for such a time as this.”

Vought said that independent agencies and unelected bureaucrats and experts wield far too much power while the traditional legislative process is a sham. He extended that critique to agencies like the Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve, whose independence from the White House had long been protected by both political parties.

“The left in the U.S. doesn’t want an energetic president with the power to motivate the executive branch to the will of the American people consistent with the laws of the country,” he said in the 2024 speech. “They don’t want a vibrant Congress where great questions are debated and decided in front of the American people. They don’t want empowered members. They want discouraged and bored backbenchers.”

He added, “The all-empowered career expert like Tony Fauci is their model, wielding power behind the curtains.” Fauci was one of the top public health experts under Trump at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and a key figure in coordinating the national response.

What sets Vought apart from most of his fellow conservative activists is that he accuses powerful organizations on the right of being complicit in the current system of government, singling out the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies, the conservative and libertarian legal network co-chaired by activist Leonard Leo. The society is widely seen as an instrumental force in cultivating young conservative lawyers and building a bench of future judges whose embrace of legal theories like originalism and textualism have led to decisions overturning abortion rights, environmental protections and social welfare policies.

Yet in his 2024 speech, Vought accused the Federalist Society and “originalist judges” of being a part of the problem, perpetuating the “post-constitutional structure” that Vought lamented by not ruling more aggressively to weaken or dismantle independent regulatory agencies that Vought and his allies view as illegitimate or unconstitutional.

It was “like being in a contract quietly revoked two decades ago, in which one party didn’t tell the other,” he said. “At some point, reality needs to set in. Instead, we have the vaunted so-called Federalist Society and originalist judges acting as a Praetorian Guard for this post-constitutional structure.”

Echoing Trump’s rhetoric, Vought implicitly endorsed the false claim of a stolen 2020 election and likened the media’s debunkings of that claim to Chinese Communist propaganda.

“In the aftermath of the election, we had all these people going around saying, ‘Well, I don’t see any evidence of voter fraud. The media’s not giving enough [of] a compelling case,’” he said. “Well, that compelling case has emerged. But does a Christian in China ask and come away saying, ‘You know, there’s no persecution, because I haven’t read about it in the state regime press?’ No, they don’t.”

Vought referred to the people detained for alleged crimes committed on Jan. 6, 2021, as “political prisoners” and defended the lawyers Jeffrey Clark and John Eastman, who have both faced criminal charges for their role in Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Federal law enforcement agencies, he added, “are keeping political opponents in jail, and I think we need to be honest about that.”

The left, Vought continued, has the ultimate goal of ending representative democracy altogether. “The stark reality in America is that we are in the late stages of a complete Marxist takeover of the country,” he said, “in which our adversaries already hold the weapons of the government apparatus, and they have aimed it at us. And they are going to continue to aim it until they no longer have to win elections.”

When Democrats called Trump an “existential threat to democracy,” they were not merely calling for his defeat at the ballot box, he said, but were using “coded language the national security state uses overseas when they are overthrowing other governments” to discourage the military from putting down anti-Trump protests should he win.

“They’re making Trump out to be a would-be dictator or an authoritarian,” he said. “So they’re actively working now to ensure, on a number of levels, that the military will perceive this as dictatorial and therefore not respond to any orders to quell any violence.”

Trump, Vought insisted, has the credibility and the track record to defeat the “Marxist” left and bring about the changes that Vought and his MAGA allies seek. In his view, the Democratic Party’s agenda and its “quiet revolution” could be stopped only by a “radical constitutionalist,” someone in the mold of Thomas Jefferson or James Madison. For Vought, no one was in a better position to fill that role than Trump.

“We have in Donald Trump a man who is so uniquely positioned to serve this role, a man whose own interests perfectly align with the interests of the country,” Vought said. “He has seen what it has done to him, and he has seen what they are trying to do to the country.

“That,” he added, “is nothing more than a gift of God.”

Trump’s MSG Rally Incited MAGA To Do Whatever It Takes To Seize Power

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Madison Square Garden Redux

The narcissism, the rancid “jokes,” the racism, the misogyny, and every other major element of Donald Trump’s neo-fascist movement to retake the White House was on ugly display in Manhattan Sunday night in his closing incitement to the American people.

A sampling of the coverage:

  • NYT: A Closing Carnival of Grievances, Misogyny and Racism
  • Axios: MAGA speakers unleash ugly rhetoric at Trump’s MSG rally
  • Politico: Trump’s New York homecoming sparks backlash over racist and vulgar remarks
  • WaPo: Trump rally speakers lob racist insults, call Puerto Rico ‘island of garbage’
  • NYDN:

As Heather Cox Richardson noted: “It turns out that the 2024 October surprise was the Trump campaign’s fascist rally at Madison Square Garden, a rally so extreme that Republicans running for office have been denouncing it all over social media tonight.” 

Perhaps the best analysis came from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) who properly places the MSG rally in the context of what comes next (4:00 mark):

“This was a hate rally. This was not just a presidential rally, this was also not just a campaign rally. I think it’s important for people to understand these are mini January 6 rallies, these are mini Stop the Steal rallies. These are rallies to prime an electorate into rejecting the results of an election if it doesn’t go the way that they want.”

AOC’s assessment is backed by experts like Ruth Ben-Ghiat, who pointed specifically to rally speakers claiming an unspecified “they” tried to assassinate Trump: “The purpose of this is to conjure a threat environment sufficient to justify authoritarian action if they win. Old trick of those planning coups as well.”

The MSG rally was a harbinger of what’s to come, not just in a Trump II presidency, but as soon as election night next week. Consider yourself warned.

Fascism Watch

  • NYT Magazine: Is It Fascism? A Leading Historian Changes His Mind.
  • CBS News: Elon Musk says people accusing Trump of endangering democracy are the real danger
  • WaPo: Vance defends Trump on using U.S. military against Americans
  • TPM: Trump Is Not A Fascist, Insists Man Who Called Him ‘America’s Hitler’

EXCLUSIVE

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 27: Tesla and X CEO Elon Musk raises his hands as he takes the stage during a campaign rally for Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

WaPo: “Long before he became one of Donald Trump’s biggest donors and campaign surrogates, South African-born Elon Musk worked illegally in the United States as he launched his entrepreneurial career after ditching a graduate studies program in California, according to former business associates, court records and company documents obtained by The Washington Post.”

The Backlash To Billionaire Newspaper Owners

The separate 11th hour decisions by the billionaire owners of the LA Times and WaPo not to issue endorsements in the presidential race was another indicator of creeping authoritarianism. WaPo owner Jeff Bezos took the brunt of the backlash over the weekend:

  • WSJ: Washington Post in Turmoil After Opting Against 2024 Presidential Endorsement
  • Politico: Second Post columnist resigns while others defend publication
  • NYT: Inside The Washington Post’s Decision to Stop Presidential Endorsements
  • Former WaPo editor Marty Baron: “This is cowardice, with democracy as its casualty.”
  • TPM’s Josh Marshall: Trust, Bewilderment and Billionairedom: Understanding the Backlash Against Bezos

Do Not Obey In Advance

Yale historian Timothy Snyder on how the acquiescence of the billionaire owners of the LA Times and WaPo to the Trump threat violates the first rule of the fight against tyranny:

NYT Goes Big On The Trump Threat

The NYT Opinion section Sunday took a full page to deliver this message:

Important

The NYT has obtained recordings of more than 400 meetings, including over 400 hours of conversations, of longtime GOP election law bamboozler Cleta Mitchell’s Election Integrity Network.

Election Threats Watch

  • If he wins election next week, Donald Trump is promising anew to prosecute “Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials” who “CHEATED” in the 2024 election.
  • CNN: US intelligence assesses Russian operatives behind fake video showing Pennsylvania ballots being destroyed
  • WSJ: Democrats Ready Thousands of Lawyers for Final Days of Race

It Doesn’t Have To Be This Way

WSJ:

What many Americans may not realize is that U.S. elections are an outlier, especially compared to other industrialized democracies. Canada’s campaign typically lasts between 36 and 50 days. The total campaign bill for its 2021 election: $69 million in today’s dollars—about 1/27th the price tag per voter south of the border. U.S. elections cost about 40 times more per person than the U.K. or Germany. 

Senate In The Balance

  • TX-Sen: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads Rep. Colin Allred (D) 50%-46% among likely voters, according to the new NYT/Siena College poll.
  • NE-Sen: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) leads Dan Osborn (I) 48%-46% among likely voters, according to the new NYT/Siena College poll.
  • WSJ: Republicans Put Pressure on Democrats in ‘Blue Wall’ Senate Races

What You Need To Know About Salt Typhoon

  • WSJ: Chinese Hackers Targeted Phones of Trump, Vance, and Harris Campaign
  • WaPo: Chinese hackers said to have collected audio of American calls
  • NYT: What to Know About the Chinese Hackers Who Targeted the 2024 Campaigns

No Background Checks For Trump II Appointees

NYT: “A memo circulating among at least half a dozen advisers to former President Donald J. Trump recommends that if he is elected, he bypass traditional background checks by law enforcement officials and immediately grant security clearances to a large number of his appointees after being sworn in, according to three people briefed on the matter.”

The Merrick Garland Precedent

Would a GOP-controlled Senate confirm any Supreme Court nominee from President Harris?

NK Troops Deployed To Ukraine Front

NATO chief Mark Rutte told reporters Monday that North Korean soldiers assisting Moscow have been deployed to Kursk, the Russian region partly controlled by Ukrainian troops.

Michelle Obama On Fire

The former first lady lit it up in Michigan over the weekend, in a speech that was most fiery when she focused on abortion, women’s health, and sexism:

That speech Michelle Obama gave yesterday was one of the best of this entire cycle. She is unbelievable. Here’s how she brought it home.

– Aaron Rupar

Read on Substack

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Musk’s Attack On Media Matters Could Become ‘Playbook’ Under Trump II

Donald Trump’s antagonism towards the press has become so well-established as to be unremarkable. 

In a recurring bit, he gripes about some reporter or coverage he doesn’t like, gestures to the press pen at the back of his rallies and encourages his followers to boo the journalists. He sends out all-caps screeds about reporters who have wronged him, assigns them dehumanizing nicknames (see: Maggot Haberman), vows to jail those who don’t disclose their sources, threatens to revoke cable news stations’ broadcast licenses. 

Continue reading “Musk’s Attack On Media Matters Could Become ‘Playbook’ Under Trump II”