Trump Wraps Plodding Speech on a Saccharine Note

President Trump gave what he promised would be a “long speech” to the nation Tuesday night amid a flurry of bad-for-Trump headlines. 

His approval rating, particularly among independent voters, has sunk to new lows; his Department of Homeland Security — the one tasked with carrying out his top campaign promise to deport undocumented immigrants en masse — is stuck in shutdown purgatory, with immigration enforcement operating on a slush fund and key TSA and FEMA services on the brink of suspension; the Supreme Court, which he stacked with his own conservative nominees, just blocked his signature tariff policy; and he is mulling taking military action in Iran, a move that is unpopular even among his supporters

Catch up on our live coverage below:

Sum Up

The first half of the speech was very low energy. Trump didn’t seem to have his heart in it. He roused to talk about tariffs and then gruesome murders by undocumented immigrants. American Carnage, Part II, basically. My overall sense is still that it was generally shambling and scattered, which is to say more or less like the administration itself at the moment. The non-standing and non-clapping by Democrats really seemed to get to him. It was kind of remarkable how much it seemed to get to him. Like, they’re the opposition. They’re really against him. Did it surprise him? On tariffs, what did he say exactly? The vibe seemed to be that they’ll continue? Or in spirit? What? I see nothing here that changes a bit of the current political trajectory. The speech writers don’t seem to have had much idea of how that could happen. It’s still full speed ahead with the same program until November, perhaps slightly warmed over. The collision is inevitable.

Josh’s Bespoke Live Blog #1

10:14 p.m.: The no clapping thing is really starting to get to him.

10:11 p.m.: There’s a weird fuzziness on the front of Trump’s pompadour. I’m wondering if there’s something fuzzy sprayed on it. Because something is different. Don’t pretend you don’t see this. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

10:08 p.m.: This is really giving me flashbacks of my earlier life as an avid Wally George watcher/ironic fan.

10: 05 p.m.: The through-line generally is clear: very, very low energy until he got to tariffs and graphic descriptions of murders by undocumented immigrants.

10:02 p.m.: The whole “angel mom,” “angel families” thing is simply the most disgusting and malevolent thing imaginable. Imagine any other group singled out like this. Hideous gutter politics from white nationalist degenerates.

9:56 p.m.: By my read, Trump’s energy level has risen a bit approaching the second hour.

9:49 p.m.: Trump seems to be saying he has an Obamacare replacement? But of course he doesn’t. We had a debate here at TPM about what what he was saying about Tariffs. He seemed to be saying that the foreign countries are so happy they’ll just voluntarily keep paying the tariffs. The whole logic of it seems to be that the tariffs will continue. In any case one of my colleagues suggested that he was talking about the “deals”, i.e., this or that country agreeing to invest a trillion or a gazillion dollars in the U.S. I’m not really clear.

9:43 p.m.: Tariffs seemed to be the first time he really got his energy back. But it seems to be subsiding.

9:28 p.m.: I get the sense that they knew this was turning out to be a total snoozer so they’re just going to do the rest about the hockey team.

9:16 p.m.: Still seems super low energy. (Don’t try to do this kind of commentary at home.)

9:13 p.m.: Honestly this seems a bit low energy. Not just the content but the energy in the room? Curious what people in the hall are seeing. But he also has that kind of sullen low energy thing.

How to View Trump’s Feral State of the Union

With Trump’s first official State of the Union of his second term upon us, I wanted to share a few previewing thoughts. First, who knows the particulars we’re going to see in this speech. We start with the degenerate unpredictability of Trump and added to it we have whatever mix of senescence or loosening we’ve seen so clearly in the last year. And there I am really open to either possibility. I think sometimes that in term two he has kind of maxed out on all his desires for power, for adulation. And getting everything we want has a way of undoing many people, at least putting a lot of slack in the inner chords that give us quickness and alacrity. In any case, we start with Trump and all the additional feralness and distention we have in this second term. So who the eff knows what to expect.

But this is the prism I think we should be looking at the speech through.

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Oversight Dem Says DOJ ‘Appears to Have Illegally Withheld FBI Interviews’ Around Trump Accusation

The top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee said Tuesday that he is opening an investigation into the Justice Department potentially withholding documents about an accusation against President Trump in the Epstein files. 

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Immigration Court Watchers Will Be Front and Center at Trump’s State of the Union

Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) has been a central figure in the ongoing efforts to resist President Donald Trump’s mass deportation push in New York City. And, when Trump delivers his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, Goldman is making sure some of the observers who have been monitoring the masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in court and helping detained immigrants win their release will be in the room. 

Goldman has invited Father Fabian Arias of Saint Peter’s Church in Manhattan and Peter Melck Kuttel as his guests for the presidential speech. The pair have worked closely with Goldman as the congressman has turned his district office into what he has dubbed a “whole triage center” for detainees and their families. 

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Five Points on the Rep. Tony Gonzales Affair Allegations Disrupting the Texas Primaries

You’ve probably been hearing the name Tony Gonzales a lot over the past couple of weeks. 

The Texas Republican represents the Lone Star state’s largest congressional district, and is running for reelection in a seat the GOP is desperate to hold onto given their razor-thin House majority. But Gonzales, who is married with six children, has been accused of having an affair with a former staffer, who later died by suicide. Though the allegations are not new, the scandal has resurfaced with new details over the past month, prompting calls for his resignation from members of Gonzales’ own party. 

The Office of Congressional Conduct has conducted — and concluded — an investigation into the alleged affair. But the results will remain out of the public eye for now. The Texas primary is March 3, and the office is prohibited from releasing any report involving alleged misconduct by a member to the House Ethics Committee within 60 days of an election involving that congressmember.

Here are five points to get you caught up on the ongoing scandal.

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Aileen Cannon’s Latest Misdeed Could Have Been Way Worse. No, Really.

Worst-Case Scenario Avoided

Maybe my standards are slipping and I’m resigning myself to levels of corruption that I heretofore would not have tolerated, but I was actually relieved by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s ruling yesterday barring the public release of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s report on the Mar-a-Lago documents case.

To my mind, the most important thing Cannon did was to deny the former Trump co-defendants’ request to destroy Volume II of the Smith report entirely (my emphasis): “Any additional relief requested in either Motion, including an order of destruction of Volume II, is denied.”

If she had gone as far as the co-defendants wanted, it would have set off a race to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, with outside groups trying to beat the Trump DOJ to the punch before it promptly destroyed the report so damaging to Trump. It may feel like small solace that we avoided that outcome, but it does take the worst case scenario off the table and leave space for the 11th Circuit to consider the entire case at a more sober pace.

I’ve been following developments in the case closely over the last few weeks, but I’ve largely spared you the details because at this stage of things the real ballgame is at the 11th Circuit. You have only so much attention to spare, and other things were more pressing. But that doesn’t mean Cannon hasn’t continued to conduct herself in atrocious ways that look like an ostentatious audition for an appeals court or Supreme Court seat:

  • Cannon’s rulings prohibiting the public release of Volume II of the Smith report are ungrounded in the law or history, overtly political, and designed to foil challenges to her rulings.
  • Cannon has failed to account for the fact that Trump, his former co-defendants, and the Trump DOJ are now all on the same side, making it no longer an adversarial proceeding. Despite that, she repeatedly cited in yesterday’s ruling the “unopposed” nature of the motions before her, which is a bug not a feature. Cannon has repeatedly refused to let outside advocacy groups intervene in the case to preserve some semblance of adversarial proceedings.
  • Cannon continues to drag Jack Smith, the pre-Trump DOJ, and implicitly every other judge who has ever upheld the special counsel regulations, which is to say every other judge but her.

Even before yesterday’s ruling, which made her earlier preliminary ruling permanent, it’s been up to the 11th Circuit to set things right (I’m not convinced the Supreme Court will feel the need to weigh in if the 11th Circuit does the right thing here, but obviously that’s still TBD). The next thing to watch for is whether the 11th Circuit sweeps up all the pending challenges, including the outside groups trying to intervene, into a single appeal that it can consider all at once.

Mass Deportation Watch

  • Star Tribune: U.S. District Judge Eric Tostrud of Minnesota found the Trump administration in civil contempt for transferring an immigrant to Texas and releasing him there last month without his belongings in violation of a court order. As sanction, the judge ordered the government to cover the $568.29 cost of the immigrant’s return flight to Minnesota, which his lawyer had paid.
  • Roger Parloff in Lawfare: Lessons From the [Earlier] Minnesota Civil Contempt Case
  • NYT: Former ICE lawyer Ryan Schwank, who was also an instructor at the federal government’s law enforcement training academy in Georgia, blew the whistle on the Trump’s administration alleged dismantling of the program for training new ICE agents, rendering it “deficient, defective and broken.”

A Note on the Abrego Garcia Case

The Trump DOJ filed its amended witness list ahead of Thursday’s evidentiary hearing on Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s claim that he is the victim of a vindictive prosecution — and it appears to include one small concession by the government.

Its original witness list, filed back in October, didn’t include then-acting U.S. Attorney Robert McGuire. The administration asserted that McGuire’s two previous sworn declarations filed in the case would suffice to establish that he independently made the decision to prosecute Abrego Garcia without interference from Main Justice or the White House:

Mr. McGuire will obviously be present in court during the hearing and fully expects to be called by the defense as a witness. Even if the defense does not call Mr. McGuire as a witness, Mr. McGuire will still be available and to answer the Court’s questions under oath.

But now McGuire is listed as a government witness on the amended witness list, which I suspect is a sign that the administration has gotten the message from the judge that the burden is on it to establish that this was a legitimate prosecution. So it appears now that McGuire is not going to sit this one out, as originally planned. (One bit of housekeeping: A permanent U.S. attorney was confirmed last year, and McGuire is now the first assistant U.S. attorney in Nashville.)

I’ll be in Nashville Thursday for the hearing in what is now the premier vindictive prosecution case testing the bounds of the Trump DOJ’s lawlessness. Stay tuned.

The Retribution: Foiled for Now Edition

After a grand jury unanimously rejected the case, D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro has decided to stop pursuing the prosecution of six Democratic lawmakers who made a video urging members of the military and intel communities not to comply with unlawful orders, NBC News reports.

Lawless Boat Strike No. 44

Three people were killed in another U.S. strike on an alleged drug-smuggling boat in the Caribbean, bringing the known death toll in President Trump’s lawless high seas campaign to at least 150.

The Pentagon’s Decaying Legal Culture

Jack Goldsmith, who headed the DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel under Bush II, observes that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assault on the Pentagon’s rule-of-law culture is happening on three fronts:

First, it has sought to ensure that the senior ranks of lawyers are filled with loyalists. …

Second, the administration has issued formal directives to eliminate lawyers’ independent judgment. …

Third, the administration has fired, threatened, or sidelined lawyers in the government who express disagreement with the party line established in the White House (or who were connected to past legal actions against Trump). 

This is a historic shift that reverses a half century of post-Vietnam reckoning for the U.S. military.

The Corruption: Pardon Edition

WSJ:

Weeks after President Trump granted a pardon to convicted Binance founder Changpeng Zhao in October, executives at the crypto exchange dismantled a staff investigation into $1 billion that had recently moved through Binance to a network funding Iran-backed terror groups, according to company documents and people familiar with Binance’s operations. …

Binance subsequently fired the investigators who had uncovered the transfers—and the network remained active.

Trickle-down corruption.

Jeffrey Epstein Watch

  • Peter Mandelson, the former UK ambassador to the United States, was arrested Monday at his home in London in connection with allegations that he had passed confidential government information to Jeffrey Epstein. He was released on bail several hours later.
  • NPR: The Trump DOJ has withheld some Epstein files related to allegations that President Trump sexually abused a minor:

NPR reviewed multiple sets of unique serial numbers appearing before and after the pages in question, stamped onto documents in the Epstein files database, FBI case records, emails and discovery document logs in the latest tranche of documents published at the end of January. NPR’s investigation found dozens of pages that appear to be catalogued by the Justice Department but not shared publicly.

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Women Are Just as Likely as Men to Hold Christian Nationalist Views

This story was originally reported by Mariel Padilla of The 19th. Meet Mariel and read more of their reporting on gender, politics and policy.

Pastor Doug Wilson is a self-proclaimed Christian nationalist who advocates for a patriarchal society where sodomy is criminalized, women submit to their husbands and women lose the right to vote. He also preached at the Pentagon this week after being personally invited by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, a member of the pastor’s church network. 

Wilson’s presence in the nation’s capital highlights how a fringe conservative evangelical Christian belief system has gained more traction in politics. 

Three in 10 Americans qualify as Christian nationalism adherents or sympathizers, according to Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) survey data released this week. American women are just as likely as American men to hold Christian nationalist views. 

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