DAVOS, SWITZERLAND - JANUARY 22: U.S. President Donald Trump gestures after holding a signing ceremony for the “Board of Peace” at the World Economic Forum (WEF) on January 22, 2026 in Davos, Switzerland. The US... DAVOS, SWITZERLAND - JANUARY 22: U.S. President Donald Trump gestures after holding a signing ceremony for the “Board of Peace” at the World Economic Forum (WEF) on January 22, 2026 in Davos, Switzerland. The US-backed “Board of Peace” is intended to administer the fragile ceasefire in the Gaza Strip after the war between Israel and Hamas. The final makeup of the board has not been confirmed. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) MORE LESS

With Trump’s first official State of the Union of his second term upon us, I wanted to share a few previewing thoughts. First, who knows the particulars we’re going to see in this speech. We start with the degenerate unpredictability of Trump and added to it we have whatever mix of senescence or loosening we’ve seen so clearly in the last year. And there I am really open to either possibility. I think sometimes that in term two he has kind of maxed out on all his desires for power, for adulation. And getting everything we want has a way of undoing many people, at least putting a lot of slack in the inner chords that give us quickness and alacrity. In any case, we start with Trump and all the additional feralness and distention we have in this second term. So who the eff knows what to expect.

But this is the prism I think we should be looking at the speech through.

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