There Was A Second Race in New Hampshire Last Night

While the Republican primary got the most attention last night, there was a Democratic contest too.

So let’s look at those results.

President Biden didn’t campaign in the state because New Hampshire refused to abide by the DNC’s new primary calendar which put South Carolina and Nevada at the front of the nomination line. His name didn’t appear on the ballot either. He appears on track to get a bit over 65% of the vote as a write-in. He’s likely one of the few and possibly only presidential candidate ever to win a primary as a write-in.

Continue reading “There Was A Second Race in New Hampshire Last Night”

Trump’s Extraordinary Win In New Hampshire And The Painful Road Ahead

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

The Historic Moment

While last night’s coverage of New Hampshire reinforced that political journalism is not up to the task of covering the 2024 election, I should confess that I have no real idea how to cover a presidential campaign where the presumptive major party nominee is a former president who auto-couped, faces criminal indictments in four jurisdictions, promises to abuse the powers of the office he seeks to exact retribution against his perceived enemies, has no real policy interests or platform, and is bent on strongman rule if re-elected.

This is uncharted territory, and the usual campaign and election coverage is not suited to navigating it, fails to appreciate the seriousness of the moment, reinforces and celebrates Trump’s worst tendencies, and leaves voters ill-informed and under the illusion that this is somehow all normal.

Parsing Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire is absurdism. As my colleague Josh Marshall put it yesterday: “We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.” But political journalists held a goddamned hoedown last night on the head of that imaginary pin.

So let me just run through a quick list of things that made Trump’s victory in New Hampshire last night extraordinary:

  • In the modern era (and with rare exceptions, throughout U.S. history), presidents who lose re-election have no future political viability. The fact that Trump was able to maintain control of the GOP after his 2020 loss and has all but re-won his party’s nomination is highly unusual. Be skeptical anytime you see Trump called the “de facto incumbent.” That’s not normally how this works.
  • As the NYT points out, no Republican presidential candidate who was not a sitting president has ever won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary back-to-back like Trump just did.
  • Trump narrowed the primary field to one opponent after Iowa, and then beat Nikki Haley by double digits in a New Hampshire primary with record turnout. New Hampshire was Haley’s best chance of winning anywhere, and she is now running on fumes with no clear path ahead. Who was the last non-incumbent to lock up the nomination this soon?

Those are just the purely political metrics. They don’t include the criminal charges for couping, mishandling classified documents, obstruction of justice, and cheating to win in 2016 by covering up his dalliance with a porn star. Good god.

On top of all of that, the criminal justice system is struggling mightily to hold Trump to account for the rule of law before the election. Its inability to respond to the current moment — even when its own very existence is potentially at stake — is something future generations will find bewildering. Let the record show that the current generation is bewildered, too.

Whatever Haley does in the short term, we’re in general election mode now. In some ways that is clarifying. It sharpens the mind on the choices before us. It eliminates clutter and sideshows. But political journalism is not ready for this. Neither is our court system. It’s going to be a long, bumpy, painful road to November.

No Dignity Left To Give

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) leaves all his dignity on the field:

South Carolina is NOT Nikki Haley’s Firewall

Republican presidential hopeful and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks after results came in for the New Hampshire primaries during a watch party in Concord, New Hampshire, on January 23, 2024. Nikki Haley sought to warn Republican voters away from rival Donald Trump after he defeated her in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, saying nominating the controversial US ex-president would spell victory for Joe Biden in November. (Photo by Joseph Prezioso / AFP) (Photo by JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images)

I’d be a little surprised if Nikki Haley sticks around to take it on the chin in her home state on Feb. 24. She’s trailing badly in the polls, and the pressure on her to drop out will only increase over the next month. To-wit:

RNC Ready To Move On To General Election

I Detect A Theme

Emphasis mine:

  • WSJ: Trump Won New Hampshire, but There Are Warning Signs for November
  • Politico: Trump’s New Hampshire win had some bright red warning signs
  • WSJ (same story): “Moreover, Trump in New Hampshire was carrying 33% of independent voters who chose to cast ballots in the GOP primary, another yellow warning light for his candidacy.”

2024 Ephemera

  • President Biden won the write-in vote in New Hampshire after the DNC desanctioned its primary at Biden’s behest to elevate South Carolina into “first primary” status.
  • O’Malley Dillon and senior adviser Mike Donilon are moving from the White House to top positions on Biden’s re-election campaign.
  • The Biden campaign is treating Trump’s win in new Hampshire as the kickoff of the general election campaign.

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Trump’s Gag Order In Jan. 6 Case Survives Appeal

The full D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals declined to rehear Donald Trump’s appeal of the gag order imposed on him in the Jan. 6 case.

Disqualification Clause Status Check

  • Massachusetts: Citing jurisdictional and procedural reasons, the Massachusetts State Ballot Law Commission dismissed a challenge to Donald Trump’s candidacy in the GOP primary under the Constitution’s Disqualification Clause.
  • Maine: The state’s highest court appears skeptical that it has jurisdiction to hear an appeal at this stage by Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, whose decision to remove Trump from the GOP primary ballot under the Disqualification Clause has been blocked by a lower court.

Interesting …

With New York Attorney General Letitia James seeking to ban Donald Trump for life from the New York real estate industry, she seized on a Second Circuit Court of Appeals ruling yesterday upholding a similar ban she won against Martin Shkreli in the pharmaceutical industry.

James immediately informed the judge in Trump’s civil trial of the ruling, which could be a factor as he considers his verdict in the just-finished trial, which is expected by the end of January.

Charles Osgood, 1933-2024

A quirky man from a different time. A proud anachronism. A reminder of what radio and TV could offer before it was polished to an homogenous sheen:

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Trump Wins New Hampshire Within Minutes Of Polls Closing

The Donald Trump show continues in New Hampshire after the Associated Press called the primary for him as soon as polls closed.

The state, with its high number of unaffiliated voters, independent streak and high level of educational attainment, gave Nikki Haley her best shot at making Trump’s campaign wobble and giving herself a boost of momentum. That is not developing, as Trump is headed for a comfortable margin of victory.

Haley gave a victory-esque speech early — “we got close to half the vote” — and vowed to stay in the race. She cast her sights on to South Carolina — where Trump is currently walloping her by nearly 40 points.

Trump gave a very angry speech, fixated on Haley’s, and issued a vaguely ominous threat that Haley would come under investigation for unidentified reasons (and that DeSantis would have too, if he hadn’t dropped out).

That’s a Wrap, And Not a Bad One

Let’s call this a split decision. Not terrible for Trump. But definitely not great either. Losing would have been terrible. (Terrible on the way to winning the nomination.) At the moment Trump is beating Haley by about 54% to 45%, which isn’t a lot better. That margin may go up two or three points. As we knew last night and a year ago last night, Trump is absolutely going to be the nominee. But having a candidate who is basically no more than a stand-in for opposition to Trump pulling upwards of 50% is definitely suboptimal for him, to put it mildly.

Earlier today I said that Haley’s threshold was somewhere between 35% and 40%. She’s coming in at 45%. That’s solid.

Watching Trump speak tonight I got the sense that he was one of the few people watching the results tonight who realized this was kind of embarrassing for him.

Continue reading “That’s a Wrap, And Not a Bad One”

House Republicans Use SCOTUS Texas Ruling To Salivate Over ‘Civil War’

Some House Republicans are using yesterday’s Supreme Court decision, which allowed federal officials to cut through the razor wire Texas had installed at the border, as a rallying cry, urging Texas Republicans to “stand their ground” and elevating talk of “civil war.”

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What’s the Best Outcome Tonight? Let’s Discuss.

Tonight is the night of the first and very likely the last meaningful primary of the 2024 primary calendar. Polls suggest a similar outcome to what we saw last week in Iowa: a bare majority for Trump, which in a normal contest would be a big win but is less clearly so when the candidate is the party leader and de facto incumbent. The difference is that unlike in Iowa where most of the remaining vote was split between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, now most will go to Haley.

People will be talking all day about just where we should place the thresholds over which Haley overperforms and keeps some semblance of a faux primary campaign going or Trump does the same and gets everyone to finally admit that this thing is completely absolutely done.

I’d put the number for Haley somewhere between 35% and 40%. For Trump, maybe if he goes over 60%. The truth is I have no idea. By any reasonable calculus, if she can’t win in New Hampshire she can’t win anywhere. And really … it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.

Continue reading “What’s the Best Outcome Tonight? Let’s Discuss.”

Layla Outro Time for The Dead Bounce Ron Crew

Last week I pointed to signs that with Ron DeSantis’s campaign flatlining post-Iowa, Donald Trump was ready to settle scores with everyone who had backed DeSantis when he appeared to many to pose a genuine threat to Trump. The President and his top strategist strongly hinted that he would back a primary challenge (by Virginia ultra-Trumper John McGuire) against Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, who happens to the be newly elected chairman of the Freedom Caucus. Now it’s looking like that really will happen, or at least that Good has a serious problem on his hands.

Yesterday afternoon Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene went on Twitter to endorse state Senator McGuire, Good’s challenger. Among other things she calls Good “an angry, disloyal, MAGA traitor who was caught on camera trashing President Trump and doing everything he could to defeat President Trump. Bob Good is NO GOOD and cannot be trusted.”

Continue reading “Layla Outro Time for The Dead Bounce Ron Crew”

Raw, Rancid and Real

I wanted to flag to your attention this piece in the Times about the end of Ron DeSantis’s campaign. It contains a lot of themes you’re certainly familiar with. But I found it striking. Because it cuts through a lot of the pablum of conventional news coverage about how Trump operates and what Trump is about. In short, it explains how Trump devoted a solid year to a ritual and often sexualized humiliation of DeSantis which reached its crescendo in demonstrating that DeSantis was — in the face of Trump’s assault — unwilling or unable to defend himself. That last point was key. To the extent Trump was making an “argument” in the form of a performative and cacophonous psycho-sexual assault, it was DeSantis who made the final case about himself.

By taking it. By not fighting back. By making a fool of himself. By being, in the Trump right’s vivid degenerate phantasmagoria, a total cuck.

Continue reading “Raw, Rancid and Real”

Rudy G Tries Dodging $148M Defamation Judgment With Bankruptcy

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

‘No Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow’

With fewer than $10 million in assets and more than $150 million in liabilities, Rudy Giuliani is in a world of hurt. He was a prime candidate for bankruptcy, but the fight is just beginning over what effect the bankruptcy will have, especially on his single biggest liability: the $148 million defamation judgment won against him by Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss.

In a series of developments last week, Freeman and Moss tried to get the bankruptcy court to limit Giuliani’s ability to fight the judgment. Giuliani wants the bankruptcy stay (which freezes the debtor’s affairs in place) lifted so that he can continue to challenge their judgment in court. Not fair, argued Freeman and Moss. Lifting the stay as to Giuliani would let him use the Chapter 11 filing as a sword to defeat their claim while hiding behind the shield it provides to prevent them from collecting on their judgment against him.

Giuliani’s creditors attended the first court hearing in the bankruptcy case Friday, where the judge mostly granted Giuliani’s request to continue to fight the defamation judgment:

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane on Friday agreed to Giuliani’s request to seek a new trial or to ask that the damages be reduced. Lane, however, stopped short of granting Giuliani permission to seek a full appeal. Lane stressed that the district court should have much discretion in deciding how to handle or whether to grant the request.

The key question right now is how the trial judge will exercise that discretion. It’s a complicated interplay of bankruptcy law and federal civil procedure, which I won’t bore you with and which doesn’t really speak to the larger issues around the 2020 election interference or the attack on the rule of law.

As for Giuliani’s ability to ever pay even a fraction of the judgment, his lawyer says his income at present comes from radio and podcast hosting, with his law license suspended, and he has no significant assets. “There’s no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow,” Giuliani’s attorney told the bankruptcy court.

No Smoking Gun In Georgia Prosecutor’s Divorce File

Two developments in sideshow to the Georgia RICO case:

  • The judge overseeing the divorce case of special prosecutor Nathan Wade paused the deposition of Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis sought by Wade’s wife.
  • The judge also unsealed the divorce case, but there was nothing in the record that substantiated the claims by a Trump co-defendant in the RICO case that Wade and Willis were/are engaged in a romantic relationship.

I’m struggling to make myself care about this side angle to the RICO case, but until we get an official response from Willis in a court filing and the evidentiary hearing is held next month in front of the judge in the RICO case, we’re stuck having to deal with this.

MAGA World Flips Out Over E. Jean Carroll Trial Delay

COVID forced the postponement of the E. Jean Carroll defamation trial against Donald Trump yesterday, and even though Trump’s own lawyer requested the delay, his supporters widely freaked out over alleged “election interference” because it meant the trial would resume on the day of the New Hampshire primary. By the end of the day, however, the judge punctured that balloon by delaying the trial until tomorrow.

The 2024 GOP Presidential Primary May End Today

The campaign wrapped up in fitting fashion:

  • Fake Joe Biden robocall tells New Hampshire Democrats not to vote today.
  • Nikki Haley won all six votes in Dixville Notch.
  • Trump closed his New Hampshire campaign sounding a lot like his own lawyers.

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Join the TPM team for live coverage.

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2024 Ephemera

  • Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, and Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey faced off in a California Senate debate last night. Porter has the night’s best line.
  • Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is frustrated with the Biden DOJ for failing to respond to a wave of threats against election workers and officials with sufficient urgency.
  • Politico: “A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.”

SCOTUS Sides With Feds On Abbott Border Stunt

By a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court lifted a lower court injunction that was preventing the federal government from removing barbed wire from the Rio Grande, placed there by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who is on a jihad to politicize the border by asserting state control over it.

Alternate headline: Four Justices Refuse To Recognize Federal Control Of The Border!

Good Read

Steve Vladeck has lots of smart things to say about Chevron, democratic accountability, and the unitary executive.

Congrats To TPM’s Hunter Walker

Today is the release date for The Truce: Progressives, Centrists and the Future of the Democratic Party by Hunter Walker and Luppe B. Luppen. To give you a taste, we’ve published a couple of pieces recently drawn from or related to the book:

Ziegler Cleared Of Rape Charge

Ousted Florida GOP Chair Christian Ziegler won’t face rape charges after police concluded that the sexual encounter with a woman Ziegler and his wife previously had engaged in a ménage à trois was “likely consensual.” But police are recommending Ziegler be charged with felony video voyeurism for recording the encounter without the woman’s knowledge or consent.

What Are We Doing Here?

This week, Alabama is planning to conduct the first U.S. execution using nitrogen hypoxia, on convicted murderer Kenneth Smith, who survived an earlier attempted execution by lethal injection.

High-Level Diplomacy

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Biden Admin Pokes At Upcoming Supreme Court Abortion Fight On Roe Anniversary 

As it does occasionally, especially on significant days, the Biden administration released a slate of measures it’s taking to protect abortion rights on Monday, the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade

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