One must-read delivered daily to your inbox

What’s the Best Outcome Tonight? Let’s Discuss.

 Member Newsletter
January 23, 2024 2:05 p.m.
HAMPTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE - JANUARY 23: Republican presidential candidate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is joined by New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu as they visit a polling location at Winnacunnet High School to g... HAMPTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE - JANUARY 23: Republican presidential candidate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is joined by New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu as they visit a polling location at Winnacunnet High School to greet voters on January 23, 2024, in Hampton, New Hampshire. voters are heading to the polls as the state holds its primary. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) MORE LESS

Tonight is the night of the first and very likely the last meaningful primary of the 2024 primary calendar. Polls suggest a similar outcome to what we saw last week in Iowa: a bare majority for Trump, which in a normal contest would be a big win but is less clearly so when the candidate is the party leader and de facto incumbent. The difference is that unlike in Iowa where most of the remaining vote was split between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, now most will go to Haley.

People will be talking all day about just where we should place the thresholds over which Haley overperforms and keeps some semblance of a faux primary campaign going or Trump does the same and gets everyone to finally admit that this thing is completely absolutely done.

I’d put the number for Haley somewhere between 35% and 40%. For Trump, maybe if he goes over 60%. The truth is I have no idea. By any reasonable calculus, if she can’t win in New Hampshire she can’t win anywhere. And really … it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.

Want to keep reading?

Join TPM and get The Backchannel member newsletter along with unlimited access to all TPM articles and member features.

I'm already subscribed

Not yet a TPM Member?

I'm already subscribed

One must-read from Josh Marshall delivered weekly to your inbox

Your subscription could not be saved. Please try again.
Your subscription has been successful.

One must-read from Josh Marshall delivered weekly to your inbox

Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: