A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
The Historic Moment
While last night’s coverage of New Hampshire reinforced that political journalism is not up to the task of covering the 2024 election, I should confess that I have no real idea how to cover a presidential campaign where the presumptive major party nominee is a former president who auto-couped, faces criminal indictments in four jurisdictions, promises to abuse the powers of the office he seeks to exact retribution against his perceived enemies, has no real policy interests or platform, and is bent on strongman rule if re-elected.
This is uncharted territory, and the usual campaign and election coverage is not suited to navigating it, fails to appreciate the seriousness of the moment, reinforces and celebrates Trump’s worst tendencies, and leaves voters ill-informed and under the illusion that this is somehow all normal.
Parsing Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire is absurdism. As my colleague Josh Marshall put it yesterday: “We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.” But political journalists held a goddamned hoedown last night on the head of that imaginary pin.
So let me just run through a quick list of things that made Trump’s victory in New Hampshire last night extraordinary:
- In the modern era (and with rare exceptions, throughout U.S. history), presidents who lose re-election have no future political viability. The fact that Trump was able to maintain control of the GOP after his 2020 loss and has all but re-won his party’s nomination is highly unusual. Be skeptical anytime you see Trump called the “de facto incumbent.” That’s not normally how this works.
- As the NYT points out, no Republican presidential candidate who was not a sitting president has ever won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary back-to-back like Trump just did.
- Trump narrowed the primary field to one opponent after Iowa, and then beat Nikki Haley by double digits in a New Hampshire primary with record turnout. New Hampshire was Haley’s best chance of winning anywhere, and she is now running on fumes with no clear path ahead. Who was the last non-incumbent to lock up the nomination this soon?
Those are just the purely political metrics. They don’t include the criminal charges for couping, mishandling classified documents, obstruction of justice, and cheating to win in 2016 by covering up his dalliance with a porn star. Good god.
On top of all of that, the criminal justice system is struggling mightily to hold Trump to account for the rule of law before the election. Its inability to respond to the current moment — even when its own very existence is potentially at stake — is something future generations will find bewildering. Let the record show that the current generation is bewildered, too.
Whatever Haley does in the short term, we’re in general election mode now. In some ways that is clarifying. It sharpens the mind on the choices before us. It eliminates clutter and sideshows. But political journalism is not ready for this. Neither is our court system. It’s going to be a long, bumpy, painful road to November.
No Dignity Left To Give
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) leaves all his dignity on the field:
South Carolina is NOT Nikki Haley’s Firewall
I’d be a little surprised if Nikki Haley sticks around to take it on the chin in her home state on Feb. 24. She’s trailing badly in the polls, and the pressure on her to drop out will only increase over the next month. To-wit:
RNC Ready To Move On To General Election
I Detect A Theme
Emphasis mine:
- WSJ: Trump Won New Hampshire, but There Are Warning Signs for November
- Politico: Trump’s New Hampshire win had some bright red warning signs
- WSJ (same story): “Moreover, Trump in New Hampshire was carrying 33% of independent voters who chose to cast ballots in the GOP primary, another yellow warning light for his candidacy.”
2024 Ephemera
- President Biden won the write-in vote in New Hampshire after the DNC desanctioned its primary at Biden’s behest to elevate South Carolina into “first primary” status.
- O’Malley Dillon and senior adviser Mike Donilon are moving from the White House to top positions on Biden’s re-election campaign.
- The Biden campaign is treating Trump’s win in new Hampshire as the kickoff of the general election campaign.
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The Truce, from journalists Hunter Walker (of Talking Points Memo) and Luppe B. Luppen, explores the major fault lines that define Democratic politics today and asks big questions about the future of the party. An engrossing page-turner, The Truce grapples with the dangers that threaten American democracy and the complicated cast of characters who are trying to save it.
Trump’s Gag Order In Jan. 6 Case Survives Appeal
The full D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals declined to rehear Donald Trump’s appeal of the gag order imposed on him in the Jan. 6 case.
Disqualification Clause Status Check
- Massachusetts: Citing jurisdictional and procedural reasons, the Massachusetts State Ballot Law Commission dismissed a challenge to Donald Trump’s candidacy in the GOP primary under the Constitution’s Disqualification Clause.
- Maine: The state’s highest court appears skeptical that it has jurisdiction to hear an appeal at this stage by Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, whose decision to remove Trump from the GOP primary ballot under the Disqualification Clause has been blocked by a lower court.
Interesting …
With New York Attorney General Letitia James seeking to ban Donald Trump for life from the New York real estate industry, she seized on a Second Circuit Court of Appeals ruling yesterday upholding a similar ban she won against Martin Shkreli in the pharmaceutical industry.
James immediately informed the judge in Trump’s civil trial of the ruling, which could be a factor as he considers his verdict in the just-finished trial, which is expected by the end of January.
Charles Osgood, 1933-2024
A quirky man from a different time. A proud anachronism. A reminder of what radio and TV could offer before it was polished to an homogenous sheen:
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Poor misunderstood white guy , who is a killer
Military veteran charged in Capitol riot is ordered released from custody (msn.com)
BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — A military veteran charged with attacking police officers with a baton during a mob’s Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol was ordered released from custody on Tuesday, a day after his arrest.
A federal prosecutor had argued for the pretrial detention of Edward Richmond Jr., a former U.S. Army soldier who was convicted of manslaughter for fatally shooting a handcuffed civilian in Iraq approximately two decades ago.
Assistant U.S. Attorney Lyman Thornton III said authorities found an AR-15 rifle and ammunition when they searched Richmond’s Louisiana home this week. Richmond was prohibited from possessing a firearm due to his criminal history, the prosecutor said.
Thornton said Richmond poses a flight risk, is a threat to the community and has a history of violence, including a “very aggressive posture toward law enforcement.”
“I think Jan. 6 was a culmination of deep-seated anger toward law enforcement,” Thornton said.
However, U.S. Magistrate Judge Erin Wilder-Doomes ordered Richmond’s release from custody after a detention hearing attended by relatives, including his 16-year-old son. Wilder-Doomes said Richmond has community ties and “appears to be a loving father.”
Defense attorney John McLindon said Richmond hasn’t been "hiding or running” in the three years since the Capitol riot.
I could’ve beEN fIRSt.
Suprise!!
New Transcript Blows Up James Comer’s Entire Hunter Biden Argument | The New Republic
Initially, Oversight Chair James Comer just released a list of paraphrased highlights from Morris’s testimony. Comer claimed that Morris informally loaned Hunter the money and does not expect to be repaid until after the 2024 election—or possibly ever. But the transcript shows this couldn’t be further from the truth.
In reality, Morris never once mentioned the possibility of forgiving the loans. Instead, he said he has a “100 percent” expectation that Hunter will repay him, and repeatedly states that he and Hunter have a series of promissory notes agreeing the younger Biden will pay back the money.
What’s more, Morris testified that there is a “balloon” on the loans set for after the election. This means that Hunter is currently making low or even no payments but will start making lump repayments in 2025.
The only person who mentions loan forgiveness in the entire interview is Representative Andy Biggs. The Arizona Republican has been a vocal critic of the Biden family, accusing them of criminal wrongdoing. Biggs asked what consequences Hunter would face if he defaulted on these loans
One of the best MM lines in recent memory.
Oh … right … the cat. Hang on.
CAT(1) General Commands Manual CAT(1) NAME cat – concatenate and print files SYNOPSIS cat [-belnstuv] [file ...] DESCRIPTION The cat utility reads files sequentially, writing them to the standard output. The file operands are processed in command-line order. If file is a single dash (‘-’) or absent, cat reads from the standard input. If file is a UNIX domain socket, cat connects to it and then reads it until EOF. This complements the UNIX domain binding capability available in inetd(8).How’s that?
Odin’s face when asked if he supports Trump!