Musk Says Jump, A Spending Bill Lands In The Trash and Johnson’s Gavel Is Again On The Line

Posted on by Kate Riga

The biggest question to me about Trump II is where the administration will land on the spectrum of incompetence to malice. Based on this current preview, the New York Times needle is currently quivering over the red-hot incompetence zone. 

This is a live question because Republicans under Donald Trump’s unified government will have more incentive to set aside their obstructionist instincts and cooperate than ever before; the party is much more MAGAfied than in 2017, with many of the reluctants and resisters forced out. If there’s one thing the conference’s rightward flank loves more than gunking up the gears of legislating, it’s performing fealty to Trump. 

But Trump has to be actively engaged in governing to snap the foot soldiers into line. And as we’ve seen this past week, he continues to refuse to do that. Georgetown’s Matt Glassman put this well in his newsletter: “If he had just laid out his position at Thanksgiving — maybe ‘clean-ish CR, with disaster relief, with farm bill extension, etc.’ — the House GOP would have absolutely passed that bill and then Johnson and company could have negotiated a decent deal with the Senate and moved on.” 

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) also put it simply: “What does President Trump want Republicans to do: vote for the CR or shut down government? Absent direction, confusion reigns.”

This time, rather than his typical swooping in at the 11th hour to blow up the carefully crafted compromise of his own accord, “President-Elect Musk” forced Trump’s hand. Democrats’ gleeful goading of Trump as Musk’s puppet is the most energized I’ve seen them since the election. 

Add to this stew that Trump, in a baffling turn of events, now wants the debt ceiling lifted — or even repealed altogether. It’s a bizarre request to tack on for a number of reasons. First, the only people who actually weaponize the debt ceiling are Republicans, and most only care about it when Democrats are in office. If Trump hadn’t called attention to it, Republicans would have lifted or suspended it as usual, with Democratic votes offsetting the Republican fiscal hawks. It’s Democrats who occasionally mutter about taking this weapon out of the GOP arsenal, only to drop the subject until the next clash.

This has caused bickering between Trump and aforementioned fiscal hawks, as the President-elect is now urging a primary against the “unpopular,” “weak” and “ineffective” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who in the past has been a particularly loud voice against raising the debt limit (and who also, unforgivably, initially endorsed Ron DeSantis in the primary). 

Many involved, including Trump, are also now venting their spleen at Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). 

“We’ll see. What they had yesterday was unacceptable,” Trump told NBC, referring to the original continuing resolution, when asked if he still had confidence in Johnson. “In many ways it was unacceptable. It’s a Democrat trap.”

Of course, it has to be at least a little friendly to Democrats by design; if some Republicans will never vote for anything but their dream hard-right spending bill, it paradoxically moves the bill to the left, as Johnson needs Democratic support to make up for it and get the bill through. This is a tale as old as time. 

A handful of House Republicans are openly telling reporters that Johnson is losing their support, and Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY) are sycophantically calling for Musk (who we’re watching discover how the government operates in real time) to be installed as speaker instead. 

If Johnson manages to keep the government funded — his team is leaking news of a plan for a three-month extension, reportedly cutting measures like lowering prescription drug costs that had been included to keep Democrats on board — some of this furor might die down before the speaker elections on Jan. 3. Trump immediately endorsed the bill, though there’s still a Democratic Senate to contend with, even if it does pass through the House. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) called the “Trump-Musk-Johnson proposal” “laughable.”

Johnson may ultimately survive, not least, because, given the above, who the hell else would want this job? 

One thing to keep in mind: If Johnson does win the election to retain his title for the incoming Congress, he’ll enjoy a degree of security neither he nor Kevin McCarthy before him ever had. The new rules package requires nine votes to trigger the motion to vacate, up significantly from the current one.

The Best Of TPM Today

Republicans Turn Eating Their Own Into A Spectator Sport

Georgia Appeals Court Disqualifies Fani Willis From Trump RICO Case

Yesterday’s Most Read Story

Trump Casts The Worst And Dimmest For Season 2

What We Are Reading

OpenAI Pleads That It Can’t Make Money Without Using Copyrighted Materials for Free — Noor Al-Sibai, Futurism

LA Times owner asks editorial board to ‘take a break’ from writing about Trump – report — Dani Anguiano, The Guardian

Majority of Americans oppose Trump’s proposals to test democracy’s limits — Colby Itkowitz, Emily Guskin and Scott Clement, The Washington Post

15% Of Global Population Lives Within A Few Miles Of A Coast—And The Number Is Growing Rapidly

Posted on by John Light

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

Coastal populations are expanding quickly around the world. The rise is evident in burgeoning waterfront cities and in the increasing damage from powerful storms and rising sea levels. Yet, reliable, detailed data on the scale of that population change has been hard to pin down, until now.

We study human geography as a sociologist at Mississippi State University and a computer scientist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Using newly available data from Oak Ridge that combines census results, satellite images and data science techniques, we were able to track growth patterns of coastal populations around the world.

The results show a striking pattern: The largest number of people by far — about 10% of the global population — live within 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) of the coast, and another 5% of the world’s people live between 5 and 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from the coast. In the rings beyond 10 kilometers, the population declines swiftly.

That’s a lot of people

The United Nations estimates that Earth’s population passed 8 billion people in 2022, an increase of 1 billion in just over a decade.

We found that over 2 billion of those people — 29% of the total global population — lived within 50 kilometers (31 miles) of shore in 2018, based on Oak Ridge Laboratory’s publicly available dataset. About half of those inhabitants — over 1 billion people, or about 15% of the global population — lived within 10 kilometers of the water.

If you picture a globe, that means 15% of the world’s population was living on 4% of the Earth’s entire inhabitable landmass.

People are drawn to coastal areas for many reasons. Coastal cities are often economic hubs, meaning job opportunities, access to trade and exposure to bustling communities. These areas also offer access to nature, including fisheries and recreation.

We found that between 2000 and 2018, the global population living within 10 kilometers of the water increased by about 233 million inhabitants — about 28%. That’s equivalent to adding 23 new megacities with 10 million inhabitants each — about twice the size of the Miami metro area — right near the water’s edge.

Costly consequences

Human settlement patterns have profound consequences for people’s exposure to risk, particularly near the coasts.

Rising sea levels contribute to high-tide flooding, more extreme storm surge during hurricanes and erosion in regions around the world. In some areas, particularly Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands, rising saltwater has infiltrated farm fields and freshwater sources. Hurricanes and typhoons, which gain strength over warm water, have intensified as temperatures have risen.

Coastal ecosystems, including fragile mangroves, wetlands and coral reefs, are also sensitive to the expanding coastal populations and to the infrastructure and pollution accompanying human settlement.

Social Science Research Center, Mississippi State University; data from LandScan, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, CC BY

Despite the importance of understanding these population patterns in coastal regions, trying to get a global picture of the growth has been hazy at best. The LandScan Global project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is changing that by starting to allow public access to annual high-resolution population data. We can used that data to estimate the magnitude and growth patterns of coastal populations on an annual basis.

Where coastal populations are booming

Coastal growth is happening across the globe, but we found the strongest growth patterns on two continents: Asia and Africa.

Currently, Asia has four of the five most populated countries: China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan. It also has 60% of the Earth’s coastal population. In comparison, Africa has about 12%, Europe has 11%, North America has 9% and South America has 7%.

But Africa has the fastest-growing population. Between 2000 and 2018, Africa’s coastal population grew 61%, with 58 million more people living within 10 kilometers of the oceans. Asia added 125 million more inhabitants within 10 kilometers of the coast – a more modest 25% increase.

The population of Ghana, in West Africa, has doubled over the past 30 years. Its greatest population density is on the coast. Ulrich Hollmann/Moment via Getty Images

Collectively, about 78% of the coastal growth was on those two continents.

On all of these continents, human population growth along the coast followed a similar pattern: The highest concentrations of inhabitants are in the bands closest to shore, decreasing rapidly as they move inland. Given the great differences among the cultures, economies and histories of the continents, it is remarkable to find consistent human population patterns.

Coastal regions are hubs of economic activity and infrastructure development, often playing critical roles in national and global economies. However, the rapid population growth is accelerating human and environmental risks.

Understanding these coastal population growth patterns is fundamental to addressing this global challenge.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Get Them While Ye Can!

Posted on by Josh Marshall

If you’re thinking about joining us for our first live-audience version of the podcast on January 15th down in DC, definitely get your tickets now. We’ve got 200 seats/tickets and we’ve already sold half of them in the first 36 hours. As noted, it’s a live-audience version of the podcast followed by a Q&A and then drinks, with your first drink included in the price of admission. Join us. It’ll be fun. Tickets are $75 if you’re not a member and $50 for Prime and Prime AF members. For Inside members, the ticket is included in the price of your membership. If you’re a member you’ll already have gotten the discounted link sent directly to your inbox. Seriously, we can’t wait to see all of you.

Listen To This: AOC Snubbed

Posted on by Jackie Wilhelm

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh discuss Democrats’ vote against elevating AOC to a prominent role, the great capitulation of the CEOs and Biden’s acts of mercy.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Continue reading “Listen To This: AOC Snubbed” →

Georgia Appeals Court Disqualifies Fani Willis From Trump RICO Case

Posted on by Josh Kovensky

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is, for now, off the Trump election interference RICO case after the Georgia Court of Appeals ruled on Thursday that a conflict of interest disqualified her.

Continue reading “Georgia Appeals Court Disqualifies Fani Willis From Trump RICO Case” →

Republicans Turn Eating Their Own Into A Spectator Sport

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Welcome To Trump II

MAGA Republicans led by Elon Musk and under pressure from Donald Trump are now poised to ruin Christmas with a government shutdown and New Year’s with an internecine fight over whether Mike Johnson will be re-elected as speaker of the House.

With a government shutdown deadline looming tomorrow, Trump blew up the bipartisan deal for a continuing resolution to fund the government through mid-March via an unhinged social media post late Wednesday afternoon. The details of the CR itself barely matter because this isn’t about legislation or compromise or striking a deal. It’s about creating a public spectacle, and nothing made that more clear than Trump’s last-minute demand that Congress raise the debt ceiling before he even takes office.

Those are the facts of what happened, but after years of GOP brinksmanship, chronic self-ownage, disarray, and dysfunction, it is hard to credibly muster the same kind of alarm or dismay in the face of these facts.

Republicans created this debacle on purpose. They own it. They are the only ones who can stop it. Elected Democrats can’t save Republicans from themselves, aren’t to blame for this folly, and are merely bystanders like the rest of us to performative hijinks that are divorced from the reality of governance.

Real people will be hurt or will have to endure another round of living under the threat of harm. It’s a colossal waste of public resources and private emotional energy. It’s another spectacle for the sake of spectacle, and we are not even the audience.

The Public Menace Of Elon Musk

Driving the right-wing backlash against House Republicans over the now-abandoned continuing resolution to fund the federal government through mid-March was the erratic and impetuous richest man in the world, posting furiously on the social media platform he owns:

  • WSJ: “With a 4:15 a.m. ET social-media post on Wednesday, Elon Musk declared that a must-do spending bill ‘should not pass.’ By early evening, the bill was dead, leaving the government barreling toward a weekend shutdown just before Christmas.”
  • WaPo: “Over the ensuing 12 hours, Musk went on a prolific tirade against the bill — with more than 60 updates, some of which boosted false claims — that stood out even for a chronic poster who has commanded an audience of more than 200 million followers by broadcasting his largely uninhibited views on the site he owns.”
  • Politico: “Among the 100-plus tweets Musk sent as part of his campaign were a number of misleading or outright false claims — a possible preview of the mogul’s new role as co-leader of a Trump-blessed effort to slash government funding.”
  • TPM’s Josh Marshall: “Trump has sewn himself into a sack with Elon Musk, a few billion dollars, a cat and a snake, and had the sack tossed into the Tiber. That’s the story here. And it will go on for a while.”

Can Mike Johnson Survive As Speaker?

Support for Mike Johnson to remain as speaker seemed to evaporate Wednesday:

  • Punchbowl: “The speaker election is in 15 days. There are members–more than a dozen–who assert that Johnson won’t be the speaker in the next Congress. It’s early. Let’s see how Johnson gets out of this mess.”
  • Politico: “Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, a frequent Johnson antagonist, on Wednesday became the first Republican to publicly say he will vote against him for speaker on Jan. 3. Other Republicans, including some who previously said they would support him, now won’t commit to backing him, despite Trump endorsing Johnson just over a month ago.”
  • WaPo: “Two other GOP members, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic, said the question of support [for Johnson] was likely moot: Based on defections that had yet to become public, Johnson would probably be forced out of the running before lawmakers would have to make up their minds on Jan. 3, the member said.”

At one level, who cares if Mike John survives. It’s a thankless job trying to lead a unleadable band of reactionaries. Someone has to do it. Eventually. But if House Republicans re-create a speakership mess like they produced for Kevin McCarthy in 2023 – not elected until the 15th ballot, on Jan. 7 – it could bump up against the Jan. 6 deadline for certifying the Electoral College results. I know.

The Full Extent Of Patel’s Awfulness

WaPo: “In the remarks, made before his selection to be FBI director, Patel floated criminal probes of lawmakers and witnesses who gave evidence to the Jan. 6 select committee, accusing them of providing false testimony and of destroying evidence. Those include former Trump aide Cassidy Hutchinson and police officers who testified about defending the Capitol during the Jan. 6 attack.

Hegseth Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Politico:

At least a dozen senators are pushing to see the FBI’s background check on Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s embattled pick for Pentagon chief — a rare move for the committee that oversees his confirmation and a sign the former Fox News host still faces hurdles in the Senate.

Unlike some other committees, the Senate Armed Services usually limits access to these types of background checks to its two lead senators. But pressure is building from both Democrats and Republicans to provide more lawmakers with the ongoing report, whose contents could determine whether Hegseth makes it to the Pentagon.

But His Emails!

Politico’s Alice Miranda Ollstein: “Trump — who attacked his then-opponent Hillary Clinton over her use of a private email server for official business during his first presidential run — is overseeing a fully privatized transition that communicates from an array of @transition47.com, @trumpvancetransition.com and @djtfp24.com accounts rather than anything ending in .gov, and uses private servers, laptops and cell phones instead of government-issued devices.”

What Trump II Abuse Of Power Looks Like

The House GOP has created a bogus pretext for the FBI to investigate former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) for her role as vice chair of the Jan. 6 committee.

Judge Warns Of The Dangers Of Pardoning Stewart Rhodes

The Obama appointee who sentenced Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes to 18 years in prison for his seditious conspiracy conviction warned in court Wednesday of the dangers of pardoning him.

“The notion that Stewart Rhodes could be absolved is frightening and ought to be frightening to anyone who cares about democracy in this country,” U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, said as he was sentencing one of Rhodes’ former Oath Keeper allies.

House Ethics Committee Will Release Gaetz Report After All

CNN:

The House Ethics Committee secretly voted earlier this month to release its report into the conduct of former Rep. Matt Gaetz before the end of this Congress, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the matter.

The report is now expected to be made public after the House’s final day of votes this year as lawmakers leave Washington for the holidays, those sources said.

Quote Of The Day

“In my single days, I often sent funds to women I dated …” –Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), reacting to the news that the House Ethics Committee has reversed course and will publicly release its report on his alleged sexual misconduct

SCOTUS Takes Up TikTok Ban

Oh, hey, look the Supreme Court can expedite hearing an issue of national significance even over the holidays.

Go Big Or Go Home

The losing GOP candidate for a Supreme Court seat in North Carolina has bypassed the lower courts and taken his case for throwing out 60,000 ballots straight to the state’s high court.

On Biden’s Insularity

WSJ: How the White House Functioned With a Diminished Biden in Charge

Meanwhile, In Climate News …

The Biden White House has announced an updated pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 61%-66% of 2005 levels, a target it says is achievable via local, state, and tribal initiatives despite the expected opposition from the incoming Trump administration.

Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!

Trump’s Trump

Posted on by Josh Marshall

As you’ve likely seen, things kind of went off the rails on Capitol Hill. Speaker Mike Johnson had assembled one of those big spending packages to avoid a government shutdown. Then Elon Musk went off on the bill and started a stampede for the exits among House Republicans. Then Trump turned against it too. Then JD Vance. By the end of the day, it was clear not only that the bill was dead, there was a real question about whether Johnson’s speakership will survive the vote for speaker coming up on January 3rd.

But none of those points are the critical ones. This is about Elon Musk.

Continue reading “Trump’s Trump” →

One Dem Tries To Remind Trump Transition That Ethics Still Exist

Posted on by Nicole LaFond

While it is likely to fall on deaf ears, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) reached out to the Donald Trump transition team this week to request that they do something, anything to prevent Elon Musk from using his role in the transition and the administration to further enrich himself.

Continue reading “One Dem Tries To Remind Trump Transition That Ethics Still Exist” →

Join Us In DC

Posted on by Joe Ragazzo

New year, new administration, and a new event from TPM. We hope you’ll start the year with Josh, Kate, and Jackie at TPM’s first ever live podcast recording.

On January 15th — less than a week before Donald Trump is sworn in for his second term — Josh & Kate will discuss expectations for the new administration and how Democrats can claw their way back into political power.

After the show there will be a brief audience Q&A, followed by a cocktail hour where some other TPM staffers will be around to chat. All attendees receive one complimentary cocktail.

Capacity is limited so please get your tickets as soon as possible!

Sponsor Message

This event made possible with with support by SnapStream, the AI-powered TV recording, monitoring, searching, and clipping product. TPM has been a customer of SnapStream for 15 years. Get a free trial for your team today

Date

January 15th, 2025

Time

Doors open at 6:30 p.m.

Pod begins at 7 p.m. with a brief audience Q&A to follow

Cocktail hour following the Q&A until 10 p.m.

Location

1201 K Street NW Washington DC, 20005

Ticket Information

(Members should have received an invite by email with special offer codes. Please check your email or email us at members dot talkingpointsmemo dot com to get your code)

Free for Inside Members

$50 for members

$75 for non-members

All attendees receive one complimentary cocktail

Some Thoughts on the Dylan Biopic

Posted on by Josh Marshall

I got the opportunity to see the new Dylan movie at an advance screening a couple nights ago. And I wanted to share a few thoughts about it. I don’t know how to write a movie review. And I don’t know enough about movies to write one anyway. These are just some of my reactions.

First, for a tl;dr: I liked it. I recommend it. Especially if you’re at all a fan of Bob Dylan.

I’m a difficult audience for this kind of film. I know every detail and anecdote from the history the movie chronicles — each meeting, plot point, verbal exchange, performance. That’s not bragging. It’s an admission. I’m way too deep into this stuff. What that means is that it’s really hard for a biopic to recreate or dramatize these events in a way that does not seem, at least for me, sentimental, cliched, overdone. Even if you don’t know all the details as an obsessive, this material has been discussed and mythologized endlessly. How can it possibly be fresh? Biopics such as these often have a stations-of-the-cross air to them, with the hero floating from one iconic moment to the next. So there’s like a Sword of Damocles of cliché and treacleiness hanging over a project like this.

But for me, Like a Complete Unknown managed to avoid this pitfall, which surprised me. The sword doesn’t come down.

Continue reading “Some Thoughts on the Dylan Biopic” →