I want to present a third view on the question of what will determine Trump’s decision on Iran. I suggest that the key factor will be what MbS and the other Middle Eastern leaders tell him they want. Ultimately Trump’s interest is in what will enrich him most and here Saudi Arabia and the others have by far the most to offer. For Trump, there is no money to be made in Israel or in regime change in Iran. Corruption overrides everything for him.
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3Wednesday that Tennessee’s ban on gender affirming care in cases of gender dysphoria does not trigger heightened legal protections. At the same time, it permitted the same exact care for minors going through other conditions like precocious puberty.
TPM Reader PT has a counterpoint to my post from last night on the offer Trump can’t resist. I’m not sure whether I agree with me or with him. If nothing else PT hits key elements of Trump’s MO …
I’m going to lay down a marker here: the US is not going to join the attacks on Iran. I say this because I think that Trump’s being driven by an entirely different dynamic than his desire to stamp his name on what looks increasingly like an “easy win.”
Let’s consider the context: just 3 days ago, Trump’s military parade was a bust and left him a laughingstock. Meanwhile, something like 2% of the population of the US turned out to protest his policies and his Presidency.
With such a large field of candidates and the primary less than a week away, it seems practically and logistically impossible for the Trump administration to target every single candidate in the NYC mayor’s race, but three major contenders so far isn’t too shabby:
February: Trump DOJ moved to dismiss without prejudice the federal political corruption case against NYC Mayor Eric Adams, who is running for re-election. Eventually, in April, a federal judge reluctantly dismissed the case, but did so with prejudice so that the Trump administration couldn’t use the prospect of refiling the case as a pressure point against Adams. The following day, Adams dropped out of the June 24 Democratic primary, deciding to run in the general election as an independent.
April: Around this time, at the behest of House Republicans, the Trump DOJ opened a criminal investigation into former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY), a leading candidate in the NYC mayor’s race. The investigation isn’t publicly revealed until a May report in the NYT. The ostensible focus of the investigation is whether Cuomo lied to Congress during testimony about his handling of the COVID pandemic while governor.
June: ICE agents arrest NYC mayoral candidate Brad Lander, the city comptroller, outside an immigration courtroom in a federal building in Manhattan. Lander was detained for a few hours after he tried to escort a migrant, who was also detained, out of the building. Lander has not yet been charged with any crime.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 17: NYC Comptroller And Mayoral Candidate Brad Lander arrives to speak at a rally after being released from ICE detention on June 17, 2025 in New York City. Lander was arrested by federal agents while visiting an immigration court and accompanying a person out of a courtroom. The trip to the immigration court was Lander’s third over the last month. He was held for over three hours before being released without charges. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
The Adams and Cuomo cases are by far the most concerning because they represent the two sides of the Trump DOJ’s abuse of its powers: using the rule of law as a shield for Trump’s allies and a sword for his foes. The Lander arrest comes in a different context: Democratic officials seeking to protest Trump’s mass deportation operation in public and provocative ways – an operation that Trump is using like a bludgeon against blue states.
While the totality of the corruption of the NYC mayoral election is obvious, it’s also in its own way imperceptible. By election night next week and certainly by the time the general election comes around, it will still be widely covered and perceived as a horse race – no matter the corrupt influence Trump has had on the field of horses and the track they’re running on.
Int’l Student Wins Complete Victory Against Trump Admin
U.S. District Judge Jerry Blackwell handed a sweeping victory to a Bangladeshi national in Minnesota who claimed that the revocation of his student visa and detention by the Trump administration was retaliation for his pro-Palestinian views.
In granting a writ of habeas corpus, Blackwell ruled that the Trump administration had violated Mohammed Hoque’s First Amendment right to free speech, his Fifth Amendment right to due process, and the Administrative Procedures Act.
Blackwell had already ordered Hoque released from detention last month.
Trump’s National Guard Order Likely To Be Upheld
In oral arguments Tuesday, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals didn’t seem inclined to find President Trump’s federalization of the California National Guard to be procedurally flawed, but it also seemed unlikely to ratify his maximalist position that his decision is not reviewable by courts. The three-judge panel – two Trump appointees and a Biden appointee – were considering last week’s ruling by U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer that sided with Gov. Gavin Newsom in blocking Trump’s order.
Someone Is Finally Held In Contempt Of Court
U.S. District Judge Kathleen Williams of Miami has held Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier in civil contempt of court for an April violation of her restraining order that blocked enforcement of a new state law that criminalizes undocumented immigrants.
Mike Lee Deletes Gross Tweets
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) deleted his three personal tweets about the Minnesota assassination spree after he was confronted by Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN).
Anti-Trans Passport Rule Blocked
U.S. District Judge Julia Kobick of Boston broadened her preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration from limiting the choices of gender identity on passports to the sex citizens were assigned at birth.
Quick Catch-Up On BBB
Putting the “big” in BBB: The House GOP version of the “Big Beautiful Bill” would add about $3.4 trillion (including borrowing costs) to the national debt, according to the latest CBO analysis.
Senate version of BBB even worse on Medicaid: Hospitals – and some GOP senators – are balking at the even deeper Medicaid cuts in the Senate version of BBB, threatening the tight timeline for getting Trump’s centerpiece legislation to his desk.
This Is NOT Going To End Well
The Senate passed on a bipartisan basis a new light-touch regulatory regime for the cryptocurrency industry, reports TPM’s Josh Kovensky.
Where Have I Heard This One Before?
American president rejects the consensus view of the U.S. intelligence community about the WMD capabilities of a hostile Middle Eastern regime as a pretext for war.
The Big Lie Will Never Die
In written responses provided to the Senate Judiciary Committee, the first batch of Trump judicial nominees skirted answering directly whether President Trump lost the 2020 election, Jay Willis reports at Balls and Strikes. All five of the nominees provided answers that were some version of: “President Biden was certified as the winner of the 2020 presidential election and served as the 46th President of the United States.”
Patel Still Fueling Big Lie
In an X post, FBI Director Kash Patel announced that he had shared with Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) “alarming” allegations about 2020 election interference by the Chinese Communist Party – a callback to a long-running and unsubstantiated element of the Big Lie canard.
John Eastman’s Disbarment Upheld
A California court found that attorney John Eastman’s effort to subvert the 2020 election was so egregious — and his remorse so lacking — that the only remedy was to permanently prohibit him from practicing law, Politico reports.
Christian Nationalist Flag Flown at SBA HQ
Kelly Loeffler, the head of the Small Business Administration, posted on X an image of the Christian nationalist “Appeal to Heaven” flag flying at SBA headquarters in DC last week. The flag remained up for about a day, Wired reports, but the X post remains up:
I’m seeing a lot of articles about Trump’s turn on Iran, how it’s in response to pressure from Israel, his evolving views. I think these are all either overblown or irrelevant. As I noted earlier, what’s driving Trump here is the hunger to get in on a “win.” It might be best to see it as a typical Trumpian branding exercise. Israel has got a product ready to go to market and they’ve offered Trump the opportunity to slap the Trump name on it. But even beyond all that there’s something more. The U.S. has wanted to get rid of the Iranian nuclear program for a very long time. We’ve used coercive sanctions. We’ve engaged in espionage and sabotage. Barack Obama spent a huge amount of time putting together a diplomatic agreement to restrict it.
Local officials in Adams County, Pennsylvania are condemning a social media post shared by the county sheriff on Facebook that featured an image of a white pickup truck with red splatters across the front bumper, hood and tires. The image posted by Adams County Sheriff James Muller was captioned “The All New Dodge Ram Protester Edition.” The red splatters are very clearly supposed to be blood.
The Senate gave its stamp of approval on Wednesday to a massive and growing chunk of the cryptocurrency industry, blessing it with a light-touch regulatory regime that, experts say, may come with a price tag: the stability of the country’s financial system. It’s the most significant victory yet for the crypto lobby, which enjoys near-unanimous support in the Republican Party as well as significant backing from many Democrats.
This bill passed with 68 votes in support, 30 against. Eighteen Democrats joined nearly all Republicans in supporting the bill.
A panel on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals seemed inclined on Tuesday to keep President Trump in charge of the California National Guard, with judges pressing into just how little justification the White House needs to provide for sending troops into American cities.
The Senate Finance Committee, which oversees changes made to taxes and social safety net programs like Medicare and Medicaid, dropped their portion of edits to House Republicans’ reconciliation package on Monday afternoon.
