Thoughts on Israel’s Iran Campaign and Donald Trump

I haven’t had a lot to say about Israel and Iran because I haven’t had a lot to add. But I want to suggest something about the possible entry of the United States into the war. These aren’t conclusions, more questions I’ve had and questions that help me frame how I’ve looked at what’s happening.

In the first couple days of this hot conflict, the conventional wisdom and reporting went from Israel doing this more or less entirely on its own, perhaps even interfering in U.S. diplomacy, to the idea that the apparent rush of diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran was actually a ruse concocted by Israel and United States to lull the Iranians into letting their guard down. At first this seemed to be what they call in the online world right wing “cope,” shoving Donald Trump back into the center of the story as He-Man hero when he had actually seemed marginal to the action. But then it started showing up in news reports. And from what I can tell at this point, it’s almost treated as a given, just part of the reported story.

This certainly may be accurate. But I’m not sure that it is. I think it’s also possible that the initial attack was fabulously successful in tactical terms (no one would deny that) and Trump basically wanted in on it. Because he likes success. In a normal administration, reporters might get a clearer read on what was real or what wasn’t. But this isn’t a normal administration. Much of “what the plan is” is an unknowable thing in Donald Trump’s head and a feature of the Trumpian personality cult is that once there’s an approved story, that is the story. Period. I could be right or wrong on my supposition here. But I’m not even sure if the people inside the administration actually know. In any case, I think there’s a pretty good chance the whole ‘we were secretly working together to lull Tehran into complacency’ is a complete fiction, an online MAGA speculation that the White House and Trump glommed onto and made real because it was convenient and helpful.

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Tina Smith Calls Out Mike Lee’s Rancid Social Media Posts

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

‘I Wanted Him To Hear From Me Directly’

Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) was among the worst culprits of trying to muddy the waters around the weekend assassination spree of Vance Luther Boelter in Minnesota – and Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) was having none of it.

In a memorable image captured Monday on the Hill, Smith was seen confronting Lee about his gross and misleading social posts that seemed to blame the victims and left-wing ideology:

“I wanted him to hear from me directly about how painful that was, and how brutal it was, to see that on what was just a horribly brutal weekend,” Smith told reporters afterward. “He didn’t say a lot, frankly. I think he was a bit stunned.”

One of Smith’s staffers sent a blistering email to Lee’s office, beseeching it to show some restraint:

New Details On Assassination Plot

According to officials, Vance Luther Boelter went to the homes of two other Minnesota lawmakers between the shootings at the homes of the Hoffmans and Hortmans. Other grim details of the the plot were revealed in the affidavit of a FBI agent.

holy shit — acting US attorney Thompson details that Boelter went to the homes of two other elected officials after shooting Hoffman but before going to Hortman's house. One cop encountered him at the third house but thought he was a police officer.

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-06-16T16:26:37.887Z

California No Kings Protester Injured

A No Kings protester was seriously injured in a hit-and-run Saturday in Riverside, California, that followed a confrontation between the crowd and the driver of a black SUV. Alexa Carrasco, 21, remains hospitalized. “We want to get out of the woods first,” her uncle, Rosalio Carrasco, told TPM’s Hunter Walker, in a Spanish-language interview last night. “I know many people are helping us with prayers and thats all we care about at this moment.”

Quote Of The Day

“Considered individually, defendants’ legal arguments are meritless. Considered in the aggregate, they are terrifying. Defendants’ interpretation of Section 12406 would empower the President to commandeer a State’s National Guard based merely on evidence that some civilians opposed his authority, disobeyed his commands, or presented operational difficulties for civil law enforcement officials—and without any input from (or even notice to) the Governor. Courts would be powerless to enforce the limits Congress imposed on the President’s exercise of that authority.”–lawyers for California, in a court filing challenging President Trump federalization of the state’s National Guard

Collateral Damage

U.S. citizens of Hispanic descent continue to be entrapped in the Trump administration’s mass deportation operation.

Big White House Flip-Flop On Immigration

The Department of Homeland Security quickly reversed its guidance from just last week that de-emphasized immigration enforcement in the agricultural, hotel, and restaurant industries.

UPDATE: South Sudan Deportees In Djibouti

Lawyers for the cluster of detainees stranded for weeks at a U.S. military base in Djibouti while en route to South Sudan were given contact information for them and a ICE intermediary who can arrange communications, the government told a federal court in Massachusetts in a status update.

Why The Rush?

The Trump administration is trying to sweep the original Abrego Garcia case under the rug before U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis is finished ascertaining whether it was in contempt of court for its months of stonewalling her orders. The Trump DOJ has now filed a motion to dismiss the case on the grounds that the administration’s return of Abrego Garcia to the United States to face trumped-up criminal charges deprives Xinis of any further jurisdiction.

For Your Radar …

One of the USAID cases is slowly moving toward possible contempt of court over the failure of the Trump administration to restore funding as ordered by U.S. District Judge Amir Ali of D.C. He has given the administration until next Monday to provide him with the next steps it plans to take to comply with his March 10 preliminary injunction. March 10! It’s June 17, for those keeping track.

Federal Judge Deplores The Racism Of NIH Cuts

U.S. District Judge William Young of Boston voided what he determined were illegal directives to terminate NIH grants meant to address LGBTQ and racial inequalities in health care.

“​​This represents racial discrimination and discrimination against America’s LGBTQ community,” said Young, an 84-year-old Reagan appointee. “That’s what this is. I would be blind not to call it out. My duty is to call it out — and I do so.”

DOGE Watch

  • NYT: Inside DOGE’s Chaotic Takeover of Social Security
  • Politico: Trump’s cuts bring climate and energy agencies to a standstill, workers say

ABA Sues Trump Over Big Law EOs

The American Bar Association filed a lawsuit on behalf of itself and its members against the Trump administration challenging the executive orders targeting law firms.

Ex-Sen. Menendez Reports To Prison Today

Robert Menendez, the longtime New Jersey Democratic senator convicted on federal bribery charges, is scheduled to report to prison today in Pennsylvania to begin serving an 11-year sentence.

Mike Lindell Hit With $2.3M Defamation Verdict

Dominion Voting Systems employee Eric Coomer won a $2.3 million defamation verdict in federal court in Denver against MyPillow founder Mike Lindell over 2020 Big Lie falsehoods.

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They’re Giving The Whole Game Away

You don’t have to squint to see it.

In a lengthy Truth Social post Sunday that you have likely already seen by now, President Trump made clear that his Priority No. 1 Mass Deportation Scheme goes hand in hand with the retribution agenda: invading blue cities, stoking chaos and panic among residents and punishing the Democratic leadership of those jurisdictions.

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A Good Corrective

There’s a good piece in the Post today by Philip Bump making an important corrective point which is that, no, we shouldn’t assume that millions of people going out and protesting against Donald Trump is actually great news for Donald Trump. The issue is sort of over-learning the fairly questionable lesson of the George Floyd protests, thinking that they somehow redounded to Trump’s benefit. As Bump notes, there’s pretty little evidence that this is true. At least in the short- to medium-term most evidence suggests the opposite.

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MAGA Whips Up Conspiracy Theories To Muddy An Act Of Right-Wing Violence

It took only hours after an allegedly Trump-supporting gunman shot multiple Democratic state lawmakers and their spouses for the right-wing misinformation machine to chug into action. 

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The Biggest Loser: The Public Is Rejecting Trump’s Degenerate Police State Antics

On Saturday, watching the President’s birthday celebration/Army parade, I commented that it seemed like it was going so poorly and Trump seemed so grumbly that I was afraid he might occupy a few more cities with the tantrum he was going to throw as a result. Of course, “going poorly” can mean a lot of different things. I didn’t watch a lot of the parade. But the moments I did catch gave me some reason for confidence in the durability of the America I know. The soldiers manning the tanks trundling down the city streets were all smiles, waving at the admittedly sparse crowd, saying “hi” to kids. I don’t think that’s the kind of parade Trump wanted. That’s not what a strongman’s military parade looks like. The soldiers are impassive. Their eyes are fixed on El Jefe. This wasn’t that.

And I wasn’t wrong about the tantrum.

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Another Dichotomy to Avoid

In recent days, I’ve seen a number of comments or editorials which focus on a dichotomy between reacting to the crisis of the moment (which is portrayed as the ICE raids, military deployments and general attacks on democracy) and focusing on issues like Medicaid (which is portrayed as politics-as-usual and an inability to recognize a national crisis). I agree with the sentiment behind this, but it’s wrongheaded and I want to explain why.

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Generation Emanuel: Meet The Black Lawmakers Whose Careers Were Ignited By The Charleston Shooting 

Reverend Clementa Pinckney knew the Bible from back to front. But according to a close spiritual colleague, one of Pinckney’s most treasured passages was the “Parable of the Sower.” The scripture tells the story of a teaching Jesus Christ delivered from a boat in the Sea of Galilee where he spoke of a man who scattered seeds along the ground. Some fell on rocks or among thorns where they failed to take root. 

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A Searing Weekend Of Political Violence In America

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Another Spasm Of Political Violence

Vance Luther Boelter, 57, was captured late Sunday in Minnesota and charged in the assassination of former state House Speaker Melissa Hortman (D) and her husband, Mark, and the attempted assassination of state Sen. John Hoffman (D) and his wife, Yvette.

One of the debilitating aspects of any violence is how final and definitive it is and how anemic any response to it feels. Capturing and trying the alleged culprit are necessary next steps but nothing unwinds what was done. Nothing sets things right.

The story of who Boelter is and how he did what he did is unsatisfying no matter how many particular details are uncovered and strung together. Piecing together motive, political ideology, and the catalysts that pushed him into unspeakable violence tries to serve our desire for meaning by establishing cause and effect. Maybe it will. Maybe it won’t.

Setting aside for now the particulars in Minnesota, what we do know is that violence and violent rhetoric begets more violence. While political violence has been a recurring feature of American political life, what marks the Trump era and makes it so different is that the president of the United States has immersed himself with almost gleeful fascination in violent threats, themes, urges, and impulses. Trump mythologizes violence.

For a decade now, Trump has fed his supporters with ever more lavish displays of violence – ugly threats and smears, mass deportations, harsh reprisals against foes, an attack on the Capitol. The episodic violence serve as totems of their tribalism. Over time, it takes ever greater shows of violence to feed the hunger for it. The next performative violence must out-do what came before.

It’s not clear where it ends. But it’s not nearly over yet.

The Weekend’s Major Deportation Developments

  • Under political pressure, the Trump administration abruptly shifted its deportation focus away from enforcement actions in the agricultural industry, hotel, and restaurant industries, the NYT reports.
  • The Trump administration is considering adding 36 countries to its travel ban list, but countries can avoid being added to the list if they agree to accept third-country nationals deported from the United States, according to an internal memo reviewed by the WaPo.
  • In an unhinged social media post, President Trump directed federal immigration officials to prioritize deportations from Democratic-run cities:

Trump is now directing ICE to focus on Democratic-led cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago and New York:

Phil Lewis (@phillewis.bsky.social) 2025-06-16T01:33:25.696Z

Posse Comitatus?

Marines in Los Angeles were photographed by Reuters in what was the first known detention of a civilian as part of its deployment in support of mass deportations. The man was quickly released.

Good Read

Inae Oh on The “Delicate, Beautiful, Tiny” Fascism of Kristi Noem

PHOTOS: The No Kings Protests

ICYMI: a collection of photos of the anti-Trump protests gathered from TPM readers and professional photographers.

The New Trump DOJ: Prosecute And Publicize

Reuters: “The U.S. Justice Department on Thursday ordered federal prosecutors to prioritize criminal prosecution of protesters who destroy property or assault law enforcement, and to make sure every case they bring gets publicized, according to an internal email seen by Reuters.”

Inside The Trump DOJ’s ‘Rubber Room’

We’ve known for a few months that some career Justice Department lawyers perceived as insufficiently loyal to the President were consigned to dead-end work on sanctuary cities. Now CBS News goes inside what has been dubbed the “rubber room.”

Judge Blocks Key Parts Of Trump’s Elections EO

In a new preliminary injunction, U.S. District Judge Denise J. Casper of Massachusetts blocked two key elements of President Trump’s executive order on elections: (i) allowing the federal government to require proof of citizenship to register to vote; and (ii) enforcing against states an Election Day deadline for counting mail-in ballots. No other judge had yet blocked the ballot-counting provision. Both provisions will remain blocked while the litigation proceeds.

More Big Law Firm Fallout

Seven partners at Willkie Farr & Gallagher, one of the law firms that struck a deal with President Trump, are leaving to join the Cooley law firm, which represented Jenner & Block in its successful challenge of the Trump executive order that targeted it.

About Trump’s Parade …

TPM’s Hunter Walker offers his account of President Trump’s long-sought strongman-style military parade in DC.

For the perspective of a seasoned major events planner, this thread from Doug Landry is a fun romp through the image-making and planning fails of the parade.

The Corruption: Cryptocurrency Edition

President Trump earned around $57 million from his stake in his family-backed cryptocurrency firm World Liberty Financial last year, according to a new financial disclosure form, when the venture was still in its infancy and hadn’t yet burgeoned after his inauguration.

Quote Of The Day

“They knew that these were losing positions from the beginning and were not actually hoping to win in court, but rather to intimidate firms into settling, as many firms did. Now that they have racked up the four losses in district courts, it is not surprising that they are not appealing, because I don’t think they ever thought these were serious positions.”–Cornell law professor W. Bradley Wendel, on President Trump’s strategy of targeting big law firms with executive orders and not appealing his losses in lower courts

A Deep Dive On Amy Coney Barrett

Two nuggets from the NYT’s well-reported examination of Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s emerging role on the Supreme Court:

  • “Soon after Justice Barrett arrived at the court … Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. assigned her to write a majority opinion — among her first — allowing the seizure of state property in a pipeline case, according to several people aware of the process. But she then changed her mind and took the opposite stance, a bold move that risked irritating the chief justice.”
  • “This spring, on Stephen K. Bannon’s podcast, [right-wing legal activist Mike Davis] tore into [Barrett] in such crude terms, even mocking the size of her family, that Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, for whom Mr. Davis had once clerked, phoned him to express disapproval of his comments, according to people aware of the exchange.”

For Your Radar …

Senate Republicans are moving to replace the provision in the House GOP “big, beautiful bill” that would make it harder for judges to enforce contempt of court violations with a provision that … would make it more costly to sue the federal government.

Only The Best People

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., says one of his new appointees to the vaccine panel that he wholesale fired is a George Washington University professor – but the school says he doesn’t work there.

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