As a smoke jumper, Sam Forstag fought a relentless game of inches. 

The job is a hard one. Firefighters who parachute in when blazes break out deep in the forest need to build a barrier to beat back the flames. They use chainsaws and other tools to cut down to the hard mineral soil, creating a fire line with no fuel to keep feeding the inferno. It’s grueling work that can be set back in an instant by a fresh bolt of lightning. And Forstag learned all too well that, even when the forecast seems set to turn wet in a way that might help fend off the flames, you can’t rely on weather to help hold the line. 

“The rains don’t always come,” Forstag explained in a conversation with TPM on Tuesday.

Now, after winning a different kind of fight and earning the Democratic Party nomination for one of Montana’s two House seats, Forstag finds himself in the center of another firestorm. The recent stretch of Democratic primary races were defined by candidates like Forstag — progressive outsiders who have challenged the party establishment.

In especially high-profile races in New York City and Denver, Colorado, candidates backed by socialist organizations defeated moderate Democrats with entrenched bases of support. Data indicates this wave was propelled by new voters who expanded the electorate. While these victories have been met with excitement in some circles, others have likened the progressive insurgency to the GOP Tea Party movement and argue it could have dire consequences. 

Forstag shares some similarities with the candidates who pulled off shock wins in blue cities. He was an underdog against a former gubernatorial nominee. Forstag also drew endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), which led to his bid being widely seen as a test for the kind of new left messaging that’s helped define this cycle for Democrats. 

All of this puts Forstag at the center of some of the most interesting and crucial conversations in politics right now. And, while the new left wave has clearly scored in staunchly blue territory, Forstag’s campaign poses an interesting question: Can a progressive outsider experience similar success in a largely rural red state?

For his part, Forstag rejects the premise Montana doesn’t have the potential to swing. He cited the state’s history of union activity and more recent shifts in statewide representation.

“Montana just saw its first Republican supermajority in state history in 2023. Like, Montana is not a deep red state,” said Forstag. “I mean within the last 12 or 13 years, we had a 50-50 split in our state legislature. Two years ago we had a Democratic U.S. senator. We had a Democratic governor until, what, 2020? This is a brand new phenomenon that Democrats are being wiped out.”

Forstag blames the recent growth of the GOP in his state and more broadly on what he continually describes as a “disconnect” between Democratic politicians and voters. He is adamant that the party needs a new approach. 

“The Democratic Party has really fucked everything up. We are in a position where we have no power at the federal level and all of this happened as we have one of the least popular presidents ever elected in office because we could not offer a more hopeful alternative or solution,” Forstag said. “I mean, at the end of 2024, we had a president telling us all that the economy is better than we think it is. Well, I don’t think there’s any better articulation of a disconnect between our political leaders and what life is like on the ground.” 

As Forstag sees it, the party’s main mistake was failing to address the economic challenges faced by voters in rhetorical or concrete terms.  

“At the end of 2024, I was making $19 bucks an hour jumping out of airplanes for the federal government in a community where you cannot find a home for less than a half million dollars — and I was seven years in,” he explained. “Some of these guys and gals are 20-plus years in making the same wage on the same job. And if that is your situation, then your life did not improve under four years of Democratic control.”

Forstag cited rising rents and private equity buying up mobile homes in his home state as “all people talk about when I go to a bar in Missoula.” 

“Rent has doubled or tripled over the last 10 years in Missoula. It’s worse in … Bozeman, in my district. It’s worse in the Flathead Valley,” he said, later adding, “This is what normal people are dealing with on a day-to-day basis and it’s this fundamental disconnect, right?”

Their loss in the last presidential race has led some Democratic operatives and organizations to actively recruit candidates like Forstag who mix progressive positions with working class careers and the traditional masculinity that goes along with them. This drive had a notable setback in Maine where, after a lack of vetting, Graham Platner secured the party’s Senate nomination before withdrawing after becoming beset by a series of scandals, including an allegation of sexual assault. 

Forstag is about as blunt when discussing the party’s issues with fielding working-class candidates as he was when talking with TPM about the broader messaging missteps. He blamed it on “policy failures for decades,” namely Democrats not universally and aggressively pushing through campaign finance reform despite Republican opposition. 

“There’s a reason that it’s so rare to see a working person even on the ballot as a major party nominee for any federal office. It’s because the system is not designed for normal working people to be able to make it in a position of power,” Forstag explained.

Forstag has a compelling personal backstory. In addition to serving as a first responder under trying circumstances, Forstag was the vice president of his union, National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE) Local 60, where he led a successful campaign to organize the last non-union forest in Montana. According to Forstag, he decided to run for office after seeing the dramatic impact of job cuts — from President Donald Trump and near-trillionaire Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative — on his colleagues in the federal workforce. 

“What the DOGE cuts looked like in Montana for the forest service or for public lands agencies was actually the lowest paid employees that we have being just absolutely gutted and cut,” Forstag explained. “They said it was all about government efficiency. There are massive inefficiencies in the federal government, believe me, I’ve come face-to-face with them. It is not people swinging a tool in the woods for $12 bucks an hour. … And those are the people whose jobs they came after.”

In his role with the union, Forstag said he sought help from the man who currently represents Montana’s First District.

“When I called Ryan Zinke, the Republican sitting in the seat right now, I got crickets,” Forstag said. “So, I decided, if he’s going to come after all my members and my co-workers’ jobs, I’m going to come and take his.”

Forstag ultimately had to leave his position in the U.S. Forest Service to run for office. Zinke announced his decision not to seek re-election in March, leaving a wide open race. Aaron Flint, a pro-Trump veteran and local talk radio host, won the GOP primary last month. 

As he approaches the general election, Forstag believes a focus on economic issues is crucial. 

“There’s been a big conversation about identity that I’ve lived through, through my adult life, from the left, right? And that has in large part been healthy, but it seems like we forgot about the most important fundamental part of people’s identity, which is our economic identity,” he said. “What is the thing that is woven through every piece of existence if you’re a working person? It’s how much money do I have? Can I afford my fucking rent at the end of the month? It’s like, well, what’s that noise that my car is making? …  That’s an emotional thing that you carry in your chest.” 

In the wake of wins by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and other progressives who homed in on economic issues, “affordability” gained traction as a key talking point for many politicians. But that was also frustrating for Forstag who saw them as late adopters. 

“I’ll be frank, the term ‘affordability’ kind of pisses me off,” said Forstag. “Because like six months ago this became the watchword for candidates across the country. And what that feels like on the ground is where the hell have you been living for the last 10 years?”

As much as he has clear criticism for Democratic messaging, Forstag certainly also does not appreciate how Republicans have talked about identity and the economy. 

“This messaging on the right where they told you the system’s broken, but then they blamed all the wrong people and told you it’s because of poor people, or brown people, or queer people. Like, none of those people are making you poor,” Forstag said. “It’s an incredibly small slice of incredibly wealthy people who are using the wealth that they’re accumulating to keep these systems broken. … That is who our enemy is.”

Forstag thinks Democrats’ failure to address Americans’ economic situation is why this rhetoric has gained traction.  

“I’ve watched a lot of the people that I work with, my friends, become the people who vote these schmucks into power. And most of the people I work with, I mean, a  third of my union members or coworkers … they don’t do it because they’re racist or xenophobes. They do it because their life is getting worse,” he said. 

Messaging isn’t the only thing that Forstag believes has helped him connect with voters in Montana. Forstag also believes being a union man was an essential component of his win. 

“In large part, it was solidarity. We got through the primary with over a dozen unions supporting me. I mean, not just my own union. but brothers and sisters in unions across the state, some of whom, you know, probably most of their members did not vote for a Democrat last year,” Forstag said, adding, “Many of them were very excited to finally see somebody who, you know, actually can identify with what it’s like to be a union member.” 

Forstag didn’t take the bait when I brought up the problems with Platner’s candidacy in Maine. However, he eagerly jumped when I asked if recruiting union leadership should be part of Democrats’ strategy as they strive to recruit working-class candidates.

“I think it damn sure better be,” he said. “The Democratic Party I grew up with was the party of the working class. We were the party of the unions. We were the party of young people. Nothing about this last election was that party.”

As Forstag sees it, the path forward for both his campaign and the party is painfully clear. He threw his hands up as he summed up the assessment. 

“The frustrating thing is the formula seems so obvious,” Forstag said.