Trump Wins New Hampshire Within Minutes Of Polls Closing

The Donald Trump show continues in New Hampshire after the Associated Press called the primary for him as soon as polls closed.

The state, with its high number of unaffiliated voters, independent streak and high level of educational attainment, gave Nikki Haley her best shot at making Trump’s campaign wobble and giving herself a boost of momentum. That is not developing, as Trump is headed for a comfortable margin of victory.

Haley gave a victory-esque speech early — “we got close to half the vote” — and vowed to stay in the race. She cast her sights on to South Carolina — where Trump is currently walloping her by nearly 40 points.

Trump gave a very angry speech, fixated on Haley’s, and issued a vaguely ominous threat that Haley would come under investigation for unidentified reasons (and that DeSantis would have too, if he hadn’t dropped out).

That’s a Wrap, And Not a Bad One

Let’s call this a split decision. Not terrible for Trump. But definitely not great either. Losing would have been terrible. (Terrible on the way to winning the nomination.) At the moment Trump is beating Haley by about 54% to 45%, which isn’t a lot better. That margin may go up two or three points. As we knew last night and a year ago last night, Trump is absolutely going to be the nominee. But having a candidate who is basically no more than a stand-in for opposition to Trump pulling upwards of 50% is definitely suboptimal for him, to put it mildly.

Earlier today I said that Haley’s threshold was somewhere between 35% and 40%. She’s coming in at 45%. That’s solid.

Watching Trump speak tonight I got the sense that he was one of the few people watching the results tonight who realized this was kind of embarrassing for him.

Continue reading “That’s a Wrap, And Not a Bad One”

House Republicans Use SCOTUS Texas Ruling To Salivate Over ‘Civil War’

Some House Republicans are using yesterday’s Supreme Court decision, which allowed federal officials to cut through the razor wire Texas had installed at the border, as a rallying cry, urging Texas Republicans to “stand their ground” and elevating talk of “civil war.”

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What’s the Best Outcome Tonight? Let’s Discuss.

Tonight is the night of the first and very likely the last meaningful primary of the 2024 primary calendar. Polls suggest a similar outcome to what we saw last week in Iowa: a bare majority for Trump, which in a normal contest would be a big win but is less clearly so when the candidate is the party leader and de facto incumbent. The difference is that unlike in Iowa where most of the remaining vote was split between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, now most will go to Haley.

People will be talking all day about just where we should place the thresholds over which Haley overperforms and keeps some semblance of a faux primary campaign going or Trump does the same and gets everyone to finally admit that this thing is completely absolutely done.

I’d put the number for Haley somewhere between 35% and 40%. For Trump, maybe if he goes over 60%. The truth is I have no idea. By any reasonable calculus, if she can’t win in New Hampshire she can’t win anywhere. And really … it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.

Continue reading “What’s the Best Outcome Tonight? Let’s Discuss.”

Layla Outro Time for The Dead Bounce Ron Crew

Last week I pointed to signs that with Ron DeSantis’s campaign flatlining post-Iowa, Donald Trump was ready to settle scores with everyone who had backed DeSantis when he appeared to many to pose a genuine threat to Trump. The President and his top strategist strongly hinted that he would back a primary challenge (by Virginia ultra-Trumper John McGuire) against Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, who happens to the be newly elected chairman of the Freedom Caucus. Now it’s looking like that really will happen, or at least that Good has a serious problem on his hands.

Yesterday afternoon Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene went on Twitter to endorse state Senator McGuire, Good’s challenger. Among other things she calls Good “an angry, disloyal, MAGA traitor who was caught on camera trashing President Trump and doing everything he could to defeat President Trump. Bob Good is NO GOOD and cannot be trusted.”

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Raw, Rancid and Real

I wanted to flag to your attention this piece in the Times about the end of Ron DeSantis’s campaign. It contains a lot of themes you’re certainly familiar with. But I found it striking. Because it cuts through a lot of the pablum of conventional news coverage about how Trump operates and what Trump is about. In short, it explains how Trump devoted a solid year to a ritual and often sexualized humiliation of DeSantis which reached its crescendo in demonstrating that DeSantis was — in the face of Trump’s assault — unwilling or unable to defend himself. That last point was key. To the extent Trump was making an “argument” in the form of a performative and cacophonous psycho-sexual assault, it was DeSantis who made the final case about himself.

By taking it. By not fighting back. By making a fool of himself. By being, in the Trump right’s vivid degenerate phantasmagoria, a total cuck.

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Rudy G Tries Dodging $148M Defamation Judgment With Bankruptcy

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

‘No Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow’

With fewer than $10 million in assets and more than $150 million in liabilities, Rudy Giuliani is in a world of hurt. He was a prime candidate for bankruptcy, but the fight is just beginning over what effect the bankruptcy will have, especially on his single biggest liability: the $148 million defamation judgment won against him by Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss.

In a series of developments last week, Freeman and Moss tried to get the bankruptcy court to limit Giuliani’s ability to fight the judgment. Giuliani wants the bankruptcy stay (which freezes the debtor’s affairs in place) lifted so that he can continue to challenge their judgment in court. Not fair, argued Freeman and Moss. Lifting the stay as to Giuliani would let him use the Chapter 11 filing as a sword to defeat their claim while hiding behind the shield it provides to prevent them from collecting on their judgment against him.

Giuliani’s creditors attended the first court hearing in the bankruptcy case Friday, where the judge mostly granted Giuliani’s request to continue to fight the defamation judgment:

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane on Friday agreed to Giuliani’s request to seek a new trial or to ask that the damages be reduced. Lane, however, stopped short of granting Giuliani permission to seek a full appeal. Lane stressed that the district court should have much discretion in deciding how to handle or whether to grant the request.

The key question right now is how the trial judge will exercise that discretion. It’s a complicated interplay of bankruptcy law and federal civil procedure, which I won’t bore you with and which doesn’t really speak to the larger issues around the 2020 election interference or the attack on the rule of law.

As for Giuliani’s ability to ever pay even a fraction of the judgment, his lawyer says his income at present comes from radio and podcast hosting, with his law license suspended, and he has no significant assets. “There’s no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow,” Giuliani’s attorney told the bankruptcy court.

No Smoking Gun In Georgia Prosecutor’s Divorce File

Two developments in sideshow to the Georgia RICO case:

  • The judge overseeing the divorce case of special prosecutor Nathan Wade paused the deposition of Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis sought by Wade’s wife.
  • The judge also unsealed the divorce case, but there was nothing in the record that substantiated the claims by a Trump co-defendant in the RICO case that Wade and Willis were/are engaged in a romantic relationship.

I’m struggling to make myself care about this side angle to the RICO case, but until we get an official response from Willis in a court filing and the evidentiary hearing is held next month in front of the judge in the RICO case, we’re stuck having to deal with this.

MAGA World Flips Out Over E. Jean Carroll Trial Delay

COVID forced the postponement of the E. Jean Carroll defamation trial against Donald Trump yesterday, and even though Trump’s own lawyer requested the delay, his supporters widely freaked out over alleged “election interference” because it meant the trial would resume on the day of the New Hampshire primary. By the end of the day, however, the judge punctured that balloon by delaying the trial until tomorrow.

The 2024 GOP Presidential Primary May End Today

The campaign wrapped up in fitting fashion:

  • Fake Joe Biden robocall tells New Hampshire Democrats not to vote today.
  • Nikki Haley won all six votes in Dixville Notch.
  • Trump closed his New Hampshire campaign sounding a lot like his own lawyers.

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Join the TPM team for live coverage.

[Sponsored] An Inside Story Of The Democratic Party At A Moment Of Great Peril

The Truce, from journalists Hunter Walker (of Talking Points Memo) and Luppe B. Luppen, explores the major fault lines that define Democratic politics today and asks big questions about the future of the party. An engrossing page-turner, The Truce grapples with the dangers that threaten American democracy and the complicated cast of characters who are trying to save it.

Buy the book

2024 Ephemera

  • Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, and Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey faced off in a California Senate debate last night. Porter has the night’s best line.
  • Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is frustrated with the Biden DOJ for failing to respond to a wave of threats against election workers and officials with sufficient urgency.
  • Politico: “A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.”

SCOTUS Sides With Feds On Abbott Border Stunt

By a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court lifted a lower court injunction that was preventing the federal government from removing barbed wire from the Rio Grande, placed there by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who is on a jihad to politicize the border by asserting state control over it.

Alternate headline: Four Justices Refuse To Recognize Federal Control Of The Border!

Good Read

Steve Vladeck has lots of smart things to say about Chevron, democratic accountability, and the unitary executive.

Congrats To TPM’s Hunter Walker

Today is the release date for The Truce: Progressives, Centrists and the Future of the Democratic Party by Hunter Walker and Luppe B. Luppen. To give you a taste, we’ve published a couple of pieces recently drawn from or related to the book:

Ziegler Cleared Of Rape Charge

Ousted Florida GOP Chair Christian Ziegler won’t face rape charges after police concluded that the sexual encounter with a woman Ziegler and his wife previously had engaged in a ménage à trois was “likely consensual.” But police are recommending Ziegler be charged with felony video voyeurism for recording the encounter without the woman’s knowledge or consent.

What Are We Doing Here?

This week, Alabama is planning to conduct the first U.S. execution using nitrogen hypoxia, on convicted murderer Kenneth Smith, who survived an earlier attempted execution by lethal injection.

High-Level Diplomacy

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Biden Admin Pokes At Upcoming Supreme Court Abortion Fight On Roe Anniversary 

As it does occasionally, especially on significant days, the Biden administration released a slate of measures it’s taking to protect abortion rights on Monday, the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade

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SCOTUS Allows Feds To Remove Wire Along Border, Deferring Showdown With Texas

The Supreme Court allowed the Biden administration to cut concertina wire blocking federal agents from accessing parts of the U.S.-Mexico border, overruling an appeals court decision which sided with Texas state authorities in blocking federal access.

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The Fall of the House of Dead Bounce Ron

I wrote a few days ago that Ron DeSantis’s long campaign collapse was likely the most ignominious and vertiginous in the presidential primary era, which dates in stages from the 1960s and early 1970s. Some skeptics pointed to Jeb! in 2016 or Rudy Giuliani in 2008. But on a closer inspection neither flameout measures up to Ron’s. As evidenced by his legendary “Please clap” mix of exhortation and lament, Jeb! had an uncanny degree of self-awareness about the impending collapse of his succession plans that would cheat him of the prize. Giuliani had the political press in his hands. But his attempt to corner the 9/11 market was never enough to overcome his heterodoxy on issues like gay rights or serial-philandering in an earlier version of the Republican Party where those things mattered. His strategy of sitting out the early primaries and waiting until Florida, while a nice foreshadowing of Florida’s future as the home of Trumpism, was always correctly identified as a way to post-date the end of his campaign. Even the 9/11 brand was too long in the tooth by 2007. Joe Biden was able to make him a punch line with his famous one-liner.

The truth though is that DeSantis never had a chance. His humiliation was preordained and basically certain. Professional Republicans were at least a bit soured on Trump after the 2022 election, which seemed to make clear what 2018 and 2020 had strongly suggested: that Trump is an electoral loser. For professional Republicans there’s a bit more to it though. They’re completely down with Trump and Trumpism, as the last seven years have shown clearly enough. But they’re always going to have an eye out to move on. Part of what it means to be a political professional is to have a wandering eye for the new political horse, the new candidate, the new rising star, which is the usual path to professional advancement. More generously, it’s why you get into political work in the first place.

A Republican Party ruled by Donald Trump is one in which true advancement and greatness is always stymied and, to the extent it exists, always subject to his whims.

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