Josh Marshall
Israel’s Channel 12 released a new poll today. It told largely the same story every poll has told since the days just after the October 7th massacres: a big drop for the Likud, a huge jump for Benny Gantz’s National Unity party. Stepping back the current government loses about twenty of its seats while the opposition jumps to roughly 70. Again, this is broadly consistent with all the other polls over the last six weeks. I’ve noted before that while this is a rare occasion where the head of government hasn’t received any kind of rally-round-the-flag effect. Quite the contrary. But if we define rally-round-the-flag as rallying around the country, the war effect or national unity, there is overwhelming evidence of that.
But looking at this and other polls, I think we can make an additional observation.
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History, Its Importance and Irrelevance – Plus Some Books 
Today I wanted to share with you a few thoughts about history — both the history of the Middle East and the story that is consuming a lot of our politics in the US in these final weeks of 2023, as well as history generally, its centrality and sometimes its irrelevance.
I’m going to cover this in two ways. I’m going to give you a list of books that are helpful to understanding the origins of all of this. They’re both very good and helpful reads. They also shed some light on where I come from in all this because I come at this grounded in a specific part of the historiography and with my own set of personal and ideological commitments. The other part is my recent email conversation with fellow community member, TPM Reader ME. I’ll start with that.
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History from the River to the Sea and Across the Ocean
This may seem like old news to some people. But I wanted to go back and reread some of the initial reactions to the massacres in southern Israel on October 7th. They are notable in themselves. And I read at least some versions of them in real time. But I felt the need to reread them now to understand the progression of events in North America over the last 5 weeks if not necessarily in Israel/Palestine.
National Students for Justice in Palestine is the national umbrella group which supports and coordinates messaging for over 200 Students for Justice in Palestine campus groups across North America.
On the day after the October 7th attacks, the organization issued this statement as either their first or one of their first statements on the massacres in southern Israel.
Read MoreKate Riga is giving us the play by play on Speaker Mike Johnson’s attempt to do exactly what Kevin McCarthy did while not paying the price McCarthy did for doing it. As we’re seeing, he’ll almost certainly pull it off. The House Freedom Caucus guys know he’s one of them, at least genetically related if not identical. That’s helping. They also realize they need to give him some time to get his footing before tossing him overboard. But what stands out most is House Republicans’ great reluctance to shut the government down – more reluctance than I expected. New boss, old boss, the same dynamics govern in the spring, the fall and now in the winter.
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Pretty remarkable things emerging in the House. It appears that Speaker Johnson can’t move his own compromise plan with Republican votes. Or actually he can’t pass the rule that governs how to bring up his bill. So now he’ll now go back to relying on Democratic votes to get it done. He’s already back to the McCarthy rules – what is it? a three weeks in? The difference, presumably, is that House hardliners know he can’t and they’ll give him a pass. They won’t make him pay any price for passing something they claim is unacceptable with Democratic votes. Because he’s their guy.
Not clear how this evolving. But a pretty decent chance we’re looking at a new MO: House hardliners remain pure and Democrats take on the responsibility for actually governing.
Netanyahu’s Rule Is Getting More Perilous for Israel and the USA
Several times I’ve noted this key oddity of the Israel-Hamas war: it is certainly the gravest crisis in Israel in a half century and yet it is being led by an Israeli leader who is now overwhelmingly discredited within his own country. And there is no sign that that public rejection is fading as the war enters its second month. Polls continue to tell the same story. Indeed, last week the right wing daily that was literally founded to support Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel HaYom, called on Netanyahu to resign at the close of the war. The difference is that the costs and dangers of Netanyahu’s continued rule are growing graver and appearing in a starker relief.
One confusion for some in the United States is the belief that the intensity and ferocity of Israel’s response to the events of October 7th is tied to Netanyahu himself. That is not the case. While public opinion is complicated and there are disagreements over strategy, the current war has overwhelming support within Israel. It’s quite unlikely that any head of government who seems at all plausible would be prosecuting it in a different way.
To the extent there are disagreements it’s over what comes afterwards. What happens in Gaza? Who controls Gaza? Is it again governed by some kind of Israeli military occupation? Is it governed by the Palestinian Authority? Is it governed by some kind of international force?
Read MoreI note a bit of speaking in jest there in the headline. But in our recent podcasts Kate Riga and I have been noting that Sherrod Brown must wish his reelection had coincided with the big abortion referendum that just won in Ohio by 13 percentage points. Could he get his wish? Could this end up on the ballot again in 2024? Let me start by saying that I don’t think he’ll get this lucky. But we can’t rule it out.
Ohio Republicans turned around from their Tuesday defeats to announce that they don’t plan on accepting the results of either the abortion or the marijuana legalization votes. With the marijuana legalization vote there’s actually a fair amount they can do since it was an “initiated statute” rather than a constitutional amendment. At least in theorythey can implement it to death, much as Florida did a few years ago when voters backed the felon enfranchisement. The abortion vote was for a constitutional amendment. So it’s locked in. There’s nothing the gerrymandered legislature can do to keep that text out of the state constitution. But Republicans think they’ve found a way around the state constitution.
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