Trump’s Venezuela Attack Is a Uniquely Dangerous Threat to the Constitutional Order

Get Your Tickets Now!

We’re kicking off the new year with our first Morning Memo Live event on Jan. 29 in Washington, D.C.

I’ll be moderating a panel discussion on the politicization of the Justice Department, featuring:

  • Stacey Young, a former 18-year DOJ veteran who is the founder and executive director of Justice Connection, a network of DOJ alumni providing support to current and recent DOJ employees;
  • Aaron Zelinsky, a former assistant U.S. attorney in Maryland who served on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team, where he prosecuted Roger Stone, and who is now a partner at Zuckerman Spaeder in Baltimore; and
  • Anna Bower, a senior editor at Lawfare who covers rule of law issues and fields wacky Signal messages from Lindsey Halligan.

We’ll be taking your questions, with a reception to follow.

See you there!

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Trump’s Venezuela Misadventure

As ghastly as the lawless U.S. attacks on alleged drug-smuggling boats had been, it was clear all along that they were merely a prelude to an equally lawless but more robust military action against Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela. The weekend’s surprise decapitation strike — in violation of international law, U.S. law, and Venezuela’s national sovereignty — sets the United States on a familiar course of both historical Latin American interventionism and 21st century regime change with no plan or exit strategy.

What is unfamiliar about it and makes it more alarming than previous foreign escapades by the United States is that President Trump is claiming and exercising an unbridled form of executive power not heretofore seen in the United States, unconstrained by a pliable GOP-controlled Congress that has abdicated its constitutional powers.

Trump’s comments last night on Air Force One suggest that no country is safe from his impulsivity, especially as his domestic political fortunes darken amid his lame duck status:

  • In addition to a second strike against Venezuela, Trump threatened Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, Iran, and Greenland.
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): “You just wait for Cuba.”
  • “We’re in charge” of Venezuela, Trump said again.
  • Maduro and his wife are scheduled to appear in federal court in Manhattan at noon for arraignment on a newly unsealed four-count superseding indictment alleging (1) a narco-terrorism conspiracy, (2) a cocaine importation conspiracy; (3-4) possession of and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices. 

As of last evening, the Trump administration still had not briefed the Gang of Eight, according to Hill Democrats.

The Lawlessness

While U.S. presidents have increasingly bypassed Congress and engaged in hostilities abroad on a largely unilateral basis, no prior president has simultaneously asserted such wide-ranging executive authority while aggressively sidelining the legislative branch not just in foreign affairs but in matters of the purse. It sets up a uniquely dangerous threat to the constitutional order:

  • Just Security: “[S]triking Venezuela and abducting its president, is clearly a violation of the prohibition on the use of force in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter. That prohibition is the bedrock rule of the international system that separates the rule of law from anarchy, safeguards small States from their more powerful neighbors, and protects civilians from the devastation of war. The consequences of flouting this rule so brazenly are likely to extend well beyond the case of Maduro’s forcible ouster.”
  • Steve Vladeck: “[A] blatantly unlawful use of military force overseas will go un-remedied—because there’s no viable legal pathway to challenge it; and because the one branch of government historically in a position to hold the executive accountable in these cases (you might remember it—Congress) has become completely feckless not just in general, but in pushing back against unlawful unilateral uses of military force, specifically.”
  • NYT’s Charlie Savage: Can the U.S. Legally ‘Run’ Venezuela After Maduro’s Capture? 

In another egregious move, the Trump White House posted video of a perp walk of Maduro.

How We Got Here

By nearly all accounts, the U.S. attack on Venezuela was not an inevitability at the start of Trump II, nor the result of a clear ideological through-line or grand strategic bargain. It was, like so many Trump II initiatives, the result of an easily manipulated, feckless president who has no clear sense of the U.S. national interest. Was it the oil? Sure. The rare earth elements? Perhaps. But are those reasons any more plausible than Trump’s fetish for violence and Stephen Miller’s thrill in taking punitive measures against brown people?

As TPM’s Josh Marshall put it: “[I]’s a mistake to think there’s a ‘real’ reason mixed in with other subterfuges and rationales, or that it’s important to find out which one the ‘real’ reason is. It’s not that linear or logical.”

The real answer is “all of the above” and whatever other rationales the Trump White House seizes on in the comings days, weeks, and months to bolster its position.

The Never-Ending Nobel Madness

The WaPo reports on why Trump isn’t elevating Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado:

Two people close to the White House said the president’s lack of interest in boosting Machado, despite her recent efforts to flatter Trump, stemmed from her decision to accept the Nobel Peace Prize, an award the president has openly coveted.

Although Machado ultimately said she was dedicating the award to Trump, her acceptance of the prize was an “ultimate sin,” said one of the people.

“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” this person said.

The Alien Enemies Act Was the First Salvo at Venezuela

As a reminder that the first attack on Venezuela under Trump II was the lawless invocation of the Alien Enemies Act in March, the Trump DOJ last night cited the ouster of Maduro in asking U.S. District Judge James Boasberg of D.C. for an extension of today’s deadline to submit a proposal for how to provide the original AEA detainees with due process:

Given substantial changes on the ground in Venezuela and the fluid nature of the unfolding situation, Defendants respectfully move for an extension to respond to this Court’s Order … directing them to propose a remedy by Monday, January 5. Over the weekend, the United States apprehended Nicolas Maduro. As a result, the situation on the ground in Venezuela has changed dramatically. Defendants thus need additional time to determine the feasibility of various proposals. Defendants therefore request a 7-day extension to evaluate and determine what remedies are possible.

Here’s the backstory on what Boasberg had demanded from the administration.

The Biggest News Over the Holiday

U.S. District Judge Waverly Crenshaw of Nashville unsealed his Dec. 3 order that found high-level Trump DOJ officials were involved in pushing the prosecution of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, bolstering his case for vindictive prosecution.

The finding that acting U.S. Attorney Robert McGuire may not have been the sole decision-maker contradicts repeated assertions made in court by the Trump DOJ to try to avoid scrutiny into the roles of top officials, including Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.

From Crenshaw’s much-anticipated order:

Specifically, some of the documents suggest not only that McGuire was not a solitary decision-maker, but he in fact reported to others in DOJ and the decision to prosecute Abrego may have been a joint decision, with others who may or may not have acted with an improper motivation. …

These documents show that McGuire did not act alone and to the extent McGuire had input on the decision to prosecute, he shared it with Singh and others. … Specifically, the government’s documents may contradict its prior representations that the decision to prosecute was made locally and that there were no outside influences.

An evidentiary hearing is scheduled for Jan. 28 on Abrego Garcia’s vindictive prosecution claims.

Hannah Dugan Resigns

Convicted of interfering with the arrest of an undocumented immigrant in her courthouse, Wisconsin state Judge Hannah Dugan has tendered her resignation from the bench, under threat of impeachment for statehouse Republicans.

ICYMI: Jack Smith Testimony

In a New Year’s Eve news dump, the Republican-controlled House Judiciary Committee released the transcript and video of former Special Counsel Jack Smith’s deposition testimony. Your regular reminder that Smith is being targeted by Republicans as political retribution for his investigations of Trump:

The Corruption: White Collar Crime Edition

“President Trump’s first year back in office turned the world of white-collar enforcement upside down,” the WSJ reports.

There Is Always More Epstein

WSJ: The Incident That Prompted Trump to Ban Epstein From Mar-a-Lago’s Spa

Hot tips? Juicy scuttlebutt? Keen insights? Let me know. For sensitive information, use the encrypted methods here.

Top DOJ Official Shut Down Enforcement Against Crypto Companies While Holding More Than $150,000 in Crypto Investments

This article first appeared at ProPublica, a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive their biggest stories as soon as they’re published.

Before Todd Blanche could be confirmed as the second-highest official at the Justice Department, he had to satisfy the concerns of ethics officials.

Continue reading “Top DOJ Official Shut Down Enforcement Against Crypto Companies While Holding More Than $150,000 in Crypto Investments”

Brief Point

Let me reiterate a general point I’ve made in other posts. I don’t think there’s any actual reason we’re invading Venezuela or trying to decapitate its government or whatever we’re doing. I think there are two or three different factions in the government each pushing a very hostile policy toward Venezueala for differing reasons. Meanwhile, Trump thinks it’s cool and has a personal beef with Maduro. That combination of factors created a lot of forward momentum within the U.S. government with nothing pushing back in the opposite direction. That gets you to today. My point is that it’s a mistake to think there’s a “real” reason mixed in with other subterfuges and rationales, or that it’s important to find out which one the “real” reason is. It’s not that linear or logical.

First Thoughts on Trump’s Excellent Venezuela Adventure

Let me share a few thoughts about the U.S. action overnight in Venezuela. I say “action” because it’s not clear to me that the U.S. itself (as in the people calling the shots in Washington) know what this was, or have decided. I woke up in the middle of the night and saw the news of some major U.S. attack. That only registered a few WTFs in my mind. Then I woke up again at maybe 4 a.m. and saw at the least the claim that U.S. forces had captured and exfiltrated Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Then my WTFs escalated to 11.

Continue reading “First Thoughts on Trump’s Excellent Venezuela Adventure”

Trump Ushers in a New Era of Imperial Rivalry

Let me take an initial crack at assessing what the United States has done in Venezuela with the proviso that time can easily prove such analyses mistaken. Donald Trump’s claimed takeover of Venezuela has been compared to what the American invasion aimed to do in Iraq in 2003, but I’d go back instead to the American intervention in the Spanish-American War in 1898 and its conquest and takeover of Cuba and the Philippines, about which I wrote in Folly of Empire

Continue reading “Trump Ushers in a New Era of Imperial Rivalry”

Moments From Day 1 of the US Supposedly Running Venezuela

  • As you’ve no doubt seen by now, Trump held a press conference during which he stated that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela through a “a group.” He also talked a lot about oil.
  • Trump was asked about additional military involvement in the country to facilitate this plan to “run” it. “No, if Maduro’s vice president — if the vice president does what we want, we won’t have to do that,” he said. Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has today been publicly reaffirming that Maduro remains president and demanding the U.S. release him.
  • Congress was not notified in advance of the strike, members have said and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed. “This was not the kind of mission that you can do congressional notification on,” Rubio said during Saturday’s press conference.
Continue reading “Moments From Day 1 of the US Supposedly Running Venezuela”

Trump Says US Has Captured Venezuela’s President Maduro

Trump’s full Truth Social post from 4:21 a.m. ET:

The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M., at Mar-a-Lago. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Experts are condemning the strikes as illegal under international law, and questioning why Congress wasn’t consulted.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) said on X that he had spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who “informed me that Nicolás Maduro has been arrested by U.S. personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States.” Maduro was indicted in 2020. There is no known indictment of his wife.

Continue reading “Trump Says US Has Captured Venezuela’s President Maduro”

Rural Health Fund Awarded To All 50 States, But Trump Admin Can Still ‘Claw Back’ Cash

Rural health systems had already been struggling for years when, earlier this year, they became a legislative focus for President Donald Trump and some GOP congress members. As the president prepared to make the most sweeping cuts to Medicaid and Medicare in the programs’ histories, a handful of GOP senators initially withheld their support for Trump’s major tax cut and defense spending package until Senate Republican leadership did something to make up for the devastating cuts to health care for low income and elderly Americans, especially those from states with large rural populations. Republican leadership added a provision to the “Big, Beautiful Bill” that created a Rural Health Transformation Fund. The fund directed $50 billion of the $3.4 trillion reconciliation package, or about 1.5% of the bill’s total cost, to rural health initiatives over five years. The first year of payments were announced Monday.

The first iteration of the $50 billion fund saw all 50 states receive money, with states receiving an average of $200 million, according to a release from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS). 

And despite concerns that the CMS could use its scoring rubric to disadvantage blue states and benefit states that voted for Trump, initial awards show a seemingly apolitical distribution of funds. 

Since half of the fund will be distributed equally among the states, those with smaller populations received more money on average than the most populous states. Five of the top 10 states that received the most money per capita are blue states, with Alaska receiving the most money per capita at $368. That’s key, since Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) was among the most vocal GOP senators expressing concern about how Medicaid cuts would impact her constituents. Maine is also among the top 10 states receiving the most money per capita. Though Kamala Harris won the presidential election there, its GOP Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was another GOP legislator heavily involved in rural healthcare negotiations last summer.

A TPM analysis using U.S. Census Bureau data on states’ rural populations and rural hospital data from the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform through October 2025 shows:

  • Blue states on average received a larger share of funding per rural hospital than red states.
  • Rhode Island, which has one rural hospital and an about 10% rural population, received the most money per rural hospital.
  • California received the least money per capita, at $6 per resident.
  • There is a slight correlation between a state’s rural population and the amount of money the state received per capita.

Before the program was rolled out, healthcare stakeholders told TPM that its parameters could disadvantage certain states and benefit others. The CMS scoring system distributed the funds based on a complex weighted formula which included a range of partisan policy-based factors, including whether states restrict SNAP users from buying “non-nutritious foods” and whether states plan to require Trump’s “Presidential Fitness Test” in schools. State scores could also be impacted if the state restricts certain health insurance plans, sometimes called junk plans, which don’t comply with Affordable Care Act coverage standards.

“We have an administration which just says right out, ‘We’re gonna cut money to blue states and blue communities,’ and it is doing it,” Adam Searing, an attorney and research professor at the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy, told TPM in November. “If you happen to live in a community that we disagree with politically, too bad.”

While initial award amounts suggest nonpartisan fund distribution, there are still concerns about strings attached to the Rural Health Transformation Fund. 

Since the funding will be recalculated annually over the life of the five-year program, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz reportedly said in a call with reporters that the administration could  “claw back” funds if a state doesn’t enact policies it committed to in its application. Searing suggested that was a possibility in November, telling TPM that CMS “can do pretty much what they want and the states can’t complain about it.”

There’s also the issue that the fund hardly covers the day-to-day operations of struggling rural health facilities. Only 15% of the fund’s cash can be used to cover uncompensated care, which experts have said will become a significant issue when health care cuts in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” hit. None of the money can help supplement underpayment from other insurance sources including private plans. And just 10% of the money can be used to cover administrative costs. The rest of the money must be designated for three or more approved initiatives, including workforce recruitment and retention, support for substance use treatment and mental health services, chronic disease management and prevention, and technology improvements.

And ultimately, healthcare experts have told TPM, $50 billion is a drop in the bucket compared to the impending health care cuts and rural hospital deficits. 

“It’s $1 trillion in cuts over a decade and $50 billion to help try to shore it up,” Rob Davidson, an emergency physician in rural West Michigan told TPM in July. “That’s 5% of the problem in a 5 year span. That math doesn’t work out.”

In a statement following the award announcements, the National Rural Health Association, a nonprofit professional organization, applauded the Trump administration and called the funding “unprecedented.” Despite this, the organization’s statement highlighted that the fund is hardly enough. 

“While this one-time funding grant is significant,” the statement reads, “NRHA reiterates that long-term policies guaranteeing sustainable funding for rural health care are needed to support providers and maintain access to care.”

Who Controls AI Exactly?

I’ve been getting lots of your emails about Artificial Intelligence and its place right at the center of so many inflection points — alliances in the new world of oligarchs, the global authoritarian movement, the Gulf princes and their money and more. One of those emails was from TPM Reader AO. AO’s central point was that this is principally a technology, productivity and economics question, and really not a political one. People may hate it but mostly because they don’t know what it is. And in any case it doesn’t matter. Because this is a transformative technology being driven by private capital investment and it’s a change that’s coming regardless of what anyone thinks. With that roll out you may think we were off to a bad start. But it was an interesting conversation and it continues. I reiterated various points I’ve made in posts here, etc. But there was one point that I realized I hadn’t made explicitly enough in those posts.

As I’ve said before, I think it’s really important to distinguish between the actual technology — LLM-based AI — and the political formations forming around it. They’re not the same thing. They’re both really important on their own terms. It’s important to give both sufficient room in a discussion of either topic.

So here goes.

Continue reading “Who Controls AI Exactly?”

DC Still Flooded With National Guard After Trump Pulls Them Out Of Other Blue Cities

National Guard troops still patrol non-state Washington D.C. after President Trump announced the end of deployments (or attempted deployments) in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles. 

Continue reading “DC Still Flooded With National Guard After Trump Pulls Them Out Of Other Blue Cities”