Thoughts on the Final Night

Posted on by Josh Marshall

First, on the speech … rock solid. I doubt her advisors and press people thought it could have gone much better. At the beginning I thought it might be understated somehow. Not bad at all, but understated, a bit quieter than we expect from these speeches. But as it progressed I realized she was developing an emotional audience, in person and on television. This came through later in the speech when she ranged from intense to boisterous to categorical. It worked with a mixture of intensity and authenticity. There’s no point in my doing more interpreting of the speech. It hit every point and hit every one well. The most telling comments were those from Republican commentators who couldn’t find their way around saying that it was a strong speech before, of course, reassuring listeners that Harris is obviously terrible and they agree with her about nothing.

Some other points are less obvious.

Continue reading “Thoughts on the Final Night” → 

Harris Paints Optimistic Vision Of The Future In High-Energy Convention Finale

As the crowded chanted her tagline, “we won’t go back,” VP Kamala Harris painted a bright picture of the future. She offered olive branches to non-Democrats and sought to reclaim patriotism, a mantle Trump’s MAGA movement has monopolized. She talked about her prosecutor-born toughness and sense of justice, her refusal to be coddled by dictators. She traced her “unlikely journey” from humble beginnings to the heights of political power, mirrored in her unusual path to the presidential nomination. She characterized Trump as both small and dangerous, a self-obsessed weirdo with the potential to do immense damage if given a second term.

And with that, the metric ton of balloons fell upon the crowd and the convention has come to a close.

The biggest surprise of the night was the lack of surprise guest, a rumor egged on by at least one senior White House staffer.

Follow our live coverage here:

Sarah Huckabee Sanders Takes Credit For Arkansas Supreme Court Abortion Ballot Question Decision

Posted on by Nicole Lafond

The Arkansas Supreme Court sided with state officials in a ruling on Thursday that will keep an abortion rights question off the ballot in November over what is, essentially, a paperwork issue.

The court upheld state officials’ decision to reject certain signatures that were collected by paid petitioners. The officials had found that the organizers behind the effort to get the amendment on the ballot — which would protect abortion access in the state — submitted the signatures in a way that did not comply with state law.

Per the Associated Press:

Election officials said Arkansans for Limited Government failed to comply with state law primarily because it submitted documentation regarding paid signature gatherers separately and not in a single bundle. The group argued that it should have been given more time to provide any additional documents needed.

“We find that the Secretary correctly refused to count the signatures collected by paid canvassers because the sponsor failed to file the paid canvasser training certification” in the way the law requires, Justice Rhonda Wood wrote for the 4-3 majority.

A dissenting justice wrote that the decision strips Arkansans’ of their rights and effectively changes the state’s initiative law.

Nepo baby-turned-Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders — who is vehemently anti-abortion — celebrated the decision, and even took credit for the ruling in a tweet on Thursday.

Abortion is currently banned in Arkansas, with exceptions only if the pregnant person’s life is in danger.

“This effort has generated a wave of fiercely engaged Arkansas women,” Arkansas for Limited Government, the group behind the measure, said in a statement to the AP. “We are outraged. We will not back down. And we will remember this in November.”

The Best Of TPM Today

New from Khaya Himmelman: Georgia Election Board, Beloved By Trump, Keeps Cranking Out Rules That May Sow Chaos

Follow our live coverage of the last night of the convention here: DNC Builds To Finale As Harris Prepares To Take The Stage

Yesterday’s Most Read Story

Walz Delivers On-Brand Speech As Democrats Look Towards Harris Finale

What We Are Reading

A guide to the streamer dipshits Trump keeps appearing with

Trump Hosting Fundraiser For Domestic Terrorists Who Assaulted Cops On Jan. 6 

From Dems, a Reminder: January 6 Was Horrible

Let’s Discuss Honeymoonism

Posted on by Josh Marshall

We’ve spoken a few times about the ongoing discussion of when Kamala Harris’s “honeymoon” is going to come to an end. We had a lot of press conversation about how it had to end a week after she got into the race. There’s been a growing media hunger for it to end. I was prompted to write this post because of a piece I saw in New York Magazine headlined, “How Long can ‘Brat Summer’ Last? The vibes are good, but at some point, Kamala Harris has to leave her bubble.”

I need to be really clear about what I mean here. On the podcast, Kate and I keep saying that there are going to be reverses in this campaign, to be prepped for them, not to lose heart at the first ugly attack that lands or the first bad poll. I’ve said similar things in various posts. So when I talk about “honeymoonism,” I don’t mean to suggest that I think we’re in a straight-line progression from now until Election Day. Just as we should never lose heart in the bleakest moments, we should always be mindful to invest positive energy in future resilience. But through these discussions of Harris’ “honeymoon” and when it has to end or when she has to come out of the “honeymoon” bubble, we can see an assumption or claim that is a bit different. It’s that somehow what’s happened during the first month of Harris’ campaign isn’t quite real, that it’s a sugar high, if you will, a burst of excitement that can’t last.

Continue reading “Let’s Discuss Honeymoonism” → 

Let’s Not Sweat the Bobby Jr. Thing

Posted on by Josh Marshall

Let me expand a bit on the RFK Jr. discussion from yesterday. It’s now clear that Kennedy will drop out tomorrow and that he will endorse Trump. I mean, clear as anything with two confirmed weirdos can be. But that’s what all the big publications are reporting, so we’ll assume that’s the case. I went through the numbers again and looked closely at what those most immersed in them think. If we look strictly at the numbers, the odds are likely that Trump gains some modest benefit. But it’s very modest. Elliott Morris, new top guy at 538, has become one of my go-tos on these things. He looked at their data which says that Kennedy dropping out of the race loses Harris two-tenths of a percentage point on her current lead. That’s not nothing in a race we all know will be very close. But it’s not far from nothing.

Continue reading “Let’s Not Sweat the Bobby Jr. Thing” → 

Georgia Election Board, Beloved By Trump, Keeps Cranking Out Rules That May Sow Chaos

Posted on by Khaya Himmelman

Election truthers in Georgia got their latest win this week when the Republican-controlled Georgia State Election Board approved another rule that gives county election officials a new way to potentially delay certification. It’s the second time this month that the Trump-friendly board has passed a rule of this type, a particularly worrying development given how close we are to the upcoming presidential election. 

Continue reading “Georgia Election Board, Beloved By Trump, Keeps Cranking Out Rules That May Sow Chaos” → 

The Dark New 2024 Twist To Trump’s Election Denialism

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

The Big Lie Continues … With A Twist

On the same day that the Democratic convention was highlighting Trump’s Jan. 6 transgressions, Trump himself was still fomenting election denialism at a rally in North Carolina, telling the crowd: “Our primary focus is not to get out the vote — but to make sure they don’t cheat.”

Stop and consider that particular comment for a moment. It’s a more extreme variation of his go-to falsehood that the only way he can lose is if Democrats cheat. In this version, the votes are all there for him, no need to even count them, because no matter the outcome Democrats will have cheated him out of the votes he knows to be there for him. He also declares Democrats’ cheating to be guaranteed and without a doubt. So a one-two punch: I already have the votes, and Democrats are already cheating me out of them.

Why does this matter?

At this point, I know that you know that his rampant election delegitimization is an authoritarian move, corrosive of democracy, and self-serving to detriment of civic life. But what may not be widely understood yet is how Trump is not pinning his hopes this time on winning more ballots or prevailing in court or muscling his way into office via a mob.

Trump’s bid this time is dependent on MAGA-friendly elections officials and boards simply refusing to certify the results (and maybe in a few extreme instances, certifying them in his favor despite him losing the ballot count). The intent is for delayed or rejected certifications to create enough chaos and uncertainty to deny Harris 270 electoral votes and send the matter to the House of Representatives to resolve.

Even if Democrats take the House, Trump could still prevail because the House vote for president is decided by a vote of each state’s delegation, and the GOP’s advantage in small rural states means they could still have the upper hand even if they lack a majority of members overall.

It’s such a far-fetched scheme that I feel some hesitation in warning about it. It feels like tinfoil hat territory. But Trump’s rhetoric lines up with it and makes a lot more sense in this context. What presidential candidate says publicly that they’re not worried about getting out the vote?

DOJ Pushes Ahead Despite SCOTUS Ruling

In new filings in a Jan. 6 case, the Justice Department indicated it will try to salvage obstruction of Congress charges despite the Supreme Court’s ruling in Fischer that narrowed the relevant statute. DOJ has abandoned the obstruction charges in other cases since the Fischer decision and not charged obstruction in some new cases, but it apparently feels like it has sufficient evidence in this particular case to overcome the Supreme Court’s higher bar.

Straight Into My Veins

Democratic Convention: Night 3 Highlights

It was all about Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who accepted his party’s nomination for vice president:

What TPM Saw

What Makes You Feel Older?

a. Bill Clinton hasn’t been president in 23 years.

b. Comments like this about Bill Clinton: “(For Gen Zers like myself, apparently this guy used to play the saxophone?)”

c. Sheila E. is 66 years old.

d. All of the above

2024 Ephemera

  • Spoiler alert: RFK Jr. is expected to end his presidential campaign Friday and in talks to throw his meager support to Donald Trump.
  • Brian Beutler: Why Fact Checkers Mangle Facts To Provide Donald Trump Cover
  • WSJ: Kamala Harris, the Divine Nine and Their Commitment to Black Excellence

Russia Probe, Part II

The NYT has tied together the recent FBI raids on Dimitri Simes’ Virginia farm and Scott Ritter’s upstate New York home, reporting that they are both part of “a broad criminal investigation into Americans who have worked with Russia’s state television networks,” citing unnamed U.S. officials.

It is part of U.S. efforts to confront Russian election interference efforts. More FBI searches are expected, and criminal charges could be forthcoming, the NYT reports. The investigation is focused on potential violations of the sanctions regime against Russia and of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, according to the NYT.

Related from the WSJ: How Russian Trolls Are Trying to Go Viral on X

Ooops …

PBS’ Judy Woodruff got a little over her skis while live on air during night 1 of the Democratic convention:

Judge Blocks FTC’s New Ban On Noncompete Agreements

A federal judge in Texas ruled that the Federal Trade Commission lacks statutory authority to ban most noncompete agreements.

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We are deeply grateful for your financial support. It sustains and nourishes not just the work we do at TPM but the community you have helped to create here. A special shout out to the Morning Memo readers who made contributions. Thank you!

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Walz Shows His Real Guy Roots As He Skewers Republicans’ Definition Of Freedom

Posted on by Emine Yücel

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was given a euphoric reception as he walked out on stage as the headliner on the third night of the Democratic National Convention, officially accepting his nomination as the vice presidential candidate. He delivered a short, snappy speech, taking listeners through his upbringing, entry into politics and his accomplishments since then. 

Continue reading “Walz Shows His Real Guy Roots As He Skewers Republicans’ Definition Of Freedom” →