Nope. Fetterman Isn’t Going Full Manchin. Not Even Close.

Sometimes a story catches fire and just a really straightforward look at the fine print shows there’s really nothing to it. One of the recent examples has to do with Sen. John Fetterman and the increasingly vocal complaints that he’s gone rogue from his progressive roots and is likely to one day become or is possibly already on his way to becoming the next Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema. There’s actually a whole conversation on social media about how we’ll soon see him coming out against getting rid of or abolishing the filibuster.

Continue reading “Nope. Fetterman Isn’t Going Full Manchin. Not Even Close.”

Wait, Trump Is Sticking With The No Sex Claim?

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Good Luck With That One!

It hadn’t fully occurred to me until opening statements yesterday that Donald Trump was going to stick with his claim that he never had sex with Stormy Daniels or, by extension, Karen McDougal.

As the first real day of trial unfolded yesterday, it became apparent that Trump wasn’t merely going to argue that this was a bullshit application of the business records law and that nothing he did amounted to criminal conduct. Rather, he was going to continue with the maximum denial: No sex, no affairs, no hanky-panky period.

That sets up the challenge of having to overcome the expected testimony of Daniels about the sex, in addition to all the testimony from Michael Cohen, David Pecker and others about how this transaction worked, what it was for, who was involved, etc.

If you’re a juror listening to all this, you almost have to believe that there was a massive setup of Trump, a wide-ranging conspiracy against him, in order to rule in his favor. That’s a high bar to clear.

‘What Have We Done?’

A resonant moment in court yesterday:

TPM Coverage Alert

Josh Kovensky will be liveblogging the proceedings again today. Great stuff! Check it out.

First Order Of Business Today: Gag Order

Judge Juan Merchan is expected to take up Trump’s 10 alleged gag order violations in a hearing at 9:30 a.m. ET, before trial resumes later this morning. This can go in a lot of different directions, so I’m not to make any predictions. I would keep your expectations very low that Trump is going to be hauled off to jail this morning.

Things to know:

More From Day 1 Of The Trial

  • The Atlantic: Trump’s Misogyny Is on Trial in New York
  • Philip Bump: Unpacking the alleged crime that made Trump’s alleged crime a felony
  • Harry Litman: How Trump’s trial will go well beyond the charges to paint a damning portrait of him

How’s The Trial Going For Trump?

The Fox News propaganda machine is so reliably pro-Trump that it can actually serve as a decent barometer of how things are going for him. When the Fox News defenders debase themselves with especially over-the-top, ridiculous, and far-fetched lines of attack, it’s a pretty good sign Trump is in the shit:

The man running to be president again finds it torturous to sit in a room for a grueling eight hours a day and a whopping four days a week. Brutal.

‘Plasmic Echo’: Eye-Opening New Deets In Unsealed MAL Docs

On order from U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, hundreds of pages of investigative records in the Mar-a-Lago case were unsealed yesterday (with heavy redactions). Among the highlights:

  • The FBI code name for the Mar-a-Lago investigations: Plasmic Echo
  • A senior Trump aide who had access to Trump in the White House and post-presidency cooperated with investigators.
  • Trump valet and co-defendant Walt Nauta was allegedly told he’d receive a pardon in 2024. (Editor’s note: If Trump does win, he won’t take office until 2025 …)

These were records that Special Counsel Jack Smith had fought to keep sealed.

Trump Prosecution Miscellany

  • NYT: The Circus Trump Wanted Outside His Trial Hasn’t Arrived
  • Aaron Blake: Trump’s transparent attempt to play the victim on ‘election interference’
  • NYT: Could Trump Go to Prison? If He Does, the Secret Service Goes, Too

Quote Of The Day

January 6th was no less than an intent and an effort to replace by force who our country had voted for. The mob was there because it hadn’t achieved what it wanted to at the ballot box.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg of Washington, D.C., in sentencing a Jan. 6 rioter

Trump Appeal Bond Gets All Sorted Out

New York Attorney General Letitia James and Trump worked out an agreement on the fly yesterday to tighten up his appeal bond, and the judge in the case approved it. That should put this whole matter to rest for the pendency of Trump’s appeal of the mammoth $454 million judgment against him in the civil fraud case.

2024 Ephemera

  • AP: In Tampa, Biden will assail Florida’s six-week abortion ban
  • TPM’s Nicole Lafond: Abortion Group, Dems Warn Swing State Voters That RFK Is Just As Dangerous As Trump On Abortion

Abortion Watch

  • WSJ: In oral arguments Wednesday, the Supreme Court will turn to emergency abortions as the Dobbs fallout continues.
  • Arizona Republic: California bill to offer Arizona abortion providers licenses in state
  • WSJ: New U.S. Rule Bans Release of Health Records in Investigations of Women Who Get Legal Abortions

‘Where Are They Supposed To Sleep?’

TPM’s Kate Riga: Liberal Justices Come Out Swinging In Uphill Battle Over Criminalizing Homelessness

Israel-Gaza Fallout

NYT: Scenes of Protests Spread at Elite Campuses

Dark Brandon On The Loose

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Abortion Group, Dems Warn Swing State Voters That RFK Is Just As Dangerous As Trump On Abortion

As abortion access promises to be an energizing driver for voter turnout in 2024 — with abortion initiatives making their ways onto ballots in a handful of states — abortion advocates and the Democratic Party are reminding voters early and often that a vote for President Biden is the way to preserve abortion access in their states.

Continue reading “Abortion Group, Dems Warn Swing State Voters That RFK Is Just As Dangerous As Trump On Abortion”

Trump Opening Statements: ‘Election Fraud,’ Fake News, And An Appeal To Exhaustion

NEW YORK — Opening statements in the first-ever criminal trial of a former President kicked off Monday morning with prosecutors accusing Trump of “election fraud” as the defense asked jurors to take a jaundiced view of the case.

Continue reading “Trump Opening Statements: ‘Election Fraud,’ Fake News, And An Appeal To Exhaustion”

Liberal Justices Come Out Swinging In Uphill Battle Over Criminalizing Homelessness

The liberal justices pounced aggressively in oral arguments Monday over a city ban on sleeping outside with a blanket, less indicative of a full-court press to sway their right-wing colleagues to their side and more an attempt to put their stamp on a case they know cannot be won. 

Continue reading “Liberal Justices Come Out Swinging In Uphill Battle Over Criminalizing Homelessness”

All Talk Marge

Like David, I’m still not clear that we have a satisfying explanation of just why the last week on Capitol Hill happened. For the moment I’m just glad it happened. Ukraine will now get a major infusion of military aid which should at least stabilize the Ukrainian war effort. But even if we don’t really know why Mike Johnson did what he did, there are some other takeaways worth noting.

Continue reading “All Talk Marge”

Awww, House Mows Over MTG On Way To Passing Ukraine Aid

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Not A Good Weekend For MTG

The compromised-by-Russian-propaganda House GOP was not enough to stop House Democrats and less-crazy Republicans from helping Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) finally pass Ukraine aid over the weekend – leaving Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and her motion to oust Johnson twisting in the wind.

The Republican-on-Republican infighting was something to behold:

Let’s be real clear though: A majority of the House GOP conference still voted against the Ukraine aid, so there hasn’t been some seismic shift on the Republican side. The only change was the speaker deciding to bring the package to a vote knowing that it would pass without majority GOP support – a violation of what’s been known as the Hastert rule.

I don’t have an easy explanation for why Johnson finally had a change of heart and was willing to risk his speakership for Ukraine aid. None of the current batch of explanations – Biden worked him over effectively, the classified intel was sobering, he doesn’t think MTG has the votes to oust him – is particularly convincing or satisfying.

Even if Johnson ended up doing the right thing and achieved a good outcome, it would be good to understand why! As Brian Beutler muses:

By way of analogy: If you drain your retirement savings to pay off the mob, but win it all back gambling, on one level it’s no harm no foul. On another level it raises some important questions about who you are! 

Indeed.

You Come At The King, You Best Not Miss

Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is still threatening to oust Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), but notably she did not call for a vote on her motion to oust Johnson after the House passed the Ukraine aid package.

How Are Things Going Inside The House GOP?

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) tore into the House GOP’s far-right flank:

Ukraine Aid Passes!

The decade-plus internal House GOP squabble is of course mostly a sideshow to the real news that desperately needed military aid for Ukraine will now be available to try to counter the advantage Russia has pressed in the months that the critical aid has been delayed.

The aid package still must pass the Senate, but that is expected, and the military aid should begin flowing again soon after.

So This Happened

One of the weekend’s lowlights: Anti-Ukraine Republicans pretended to take great umbrage over members of Congress waving Ukraine flags on the House floor after the aid vote Saturday.

Trump Trial Begins In Earnest Today

Opening statements are expected to begin at 9:30 a.m. ET. We’ll have live coverage here.

David Pecker, the former publisher of The National Enquirer, is expected to be the first prosecution witness, according to the NYT. The trial will adjourn early for Passover, so it’s unclear how much of Pecker’s testimony we’ll get today.

A couple of reading assignments to catch yourself up:

Also Happening Today …

New York Judge Arthur Engoron will hear arguments over whether the $175 million appeal bond in the civil fraud case against Trump is sufficient.

Quote Of The Day

It can happen again. Extremism is alive and well in this country. Threats of violence continue unabated.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan of Washington, D.C., while handing down her harshest sentence to date for a Jan. 6 rioter

Another $4M In Legal Expenses Paid For By Donors

Trump’s campaign and various related committees spent another $4 million on legal expenses for Trump in March, according to the latest filings:

All told, Trump’s campaign and outside political groups have paid more than $66 million in legal-related costs since early 2023, according to a Wall Street Journal review of new campaign filings made public Saturday. That translates to about $145,000 a day.Trump campaign legal billsSource: Federal Election CommissionNote: Includes Trump’s campaign committee, Save​America leadership PAC and the Trump Save​America Joint Fundraising Committee.

King Of His Tiny Corner Of The Internet

WaPo: On Truth Socials, Trump “offers an intimate view of what his second term could look like: isolated, vitriolic and vengeful.”

2024 Ephemera

  • Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) is tap-dancing around whether she supports exceptions to abortion bans for victims of rape or incest.
  • NYT: The Trump campaign and the GOP plan to dispatch more than 100,000 volunteers and lawyers to monitor elections in battleground states, working in concert with conservative activists.
  • PA-Sen: GOP Senate candidate David McCormick claims he grew up on a family farm, but the NYT’s reporting suggests he has given a misleading impression about key aspects of his background.

Passover Week Protests At Columbia

Columbia University is shifting to virtual classes on the first day of Passover after weekend protests over Gaza and antisemitic threats prompted a rabbi to urge Jewish students to return home and the White House to issue a statement condemning “physical intimidation targeting Jewish students and the Jewish community.”

IDF Intel Chief Resigns

The head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate has resigned over the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

AOC Comes Through Again

The fame and notoriety of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) can sometimes obscure how thoughtful and capable she actually is:

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