Kennedy Out?

If you haven’t seen, just in the last hour or so there are indications that RFK Jr is planning to drop out of the race and endorse Donald Trump. Kennedy’s campaign has put out word that he’ll be giving a speech about the “path forward” in Phoenix. And people are noting that Trump is supposed to be in Phoenix Friday too. The reporting suggests that the Kennedy people are signaling something like an endorsement. But who knows. That’s what it looks like to me. But we will know Friday, if not sooner.

A few points on this. The first one is that there’s some evidence that Kennedy is now hurting Trump more than Harris. Obviously Trump thinks so or he wouldn’t be trying to get Kennedy to drop out. Polls suggest that the balance changed after Harris got into the race. The more Dem-adjacent supporters basically went to Harris. So in this still very tight race, this could hurt Harris in the horse race numbers.

Continue reading “Kennedy Out?”

Booooooom!!!! Thank You, Folks

Well, there it is. We just flew past our goal of raising $500,000 in this year’s annual TPM Journalism Fund drive. We’re currently at $503,822. I want to say just a big, big thank you. We started this year’s drive with a relative confidence we could hit this mark. But you simply never know. Each year people’s moods are different. The economy is different. And these are just very big numbers. Each new time is really like a trust fall all over again. I personally want to thank the whole TPM team whose collective work this result is based on. The site promos will stay up a bit longer. And of course you are very welcome to continue contribute. Every extra dollar will be put to very good use. But this was our critical goal. So this will be my last post pitching you on this year’s drive.

Truly, we thank you. I thank you. We couldn’t be happier and prouder.

The Obamas Fire Up Dem Convention With Penis Joke And Real Talk

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Oh, He Went There

Barack and Michelle Obama welcomed the Democratic convention to their hometown of Chicago, with sterling back-to-back speeches that harkened to the brighter pre-Trump days.

Neither has lost a step as orators, with precision timing and panache that very few politicians have ever mustered, except that Michelle is not a politician and this was never her day job.

Barack added physical comedy to his repertoire Tuesday night.

While he struck familiar themes from his two terms as president and wove them into the Harris-Walz campaign messaging in a way designed to make her a natural successor to his legacy, it was this pantomimed dart at the manhood of the man who did succeed him that brought down the house:

I cannot imagine Trump’s reaction to that one, but this seems right:

Michelle Obama Still Has It, Too

A lot of silly analysis overnight about Michelle eschewing her motto — “When they go low, we go high” — as if calling out racism and misogyny is going low.

“Going small is petty, it’s unhealthy, and, quite frankly, it’s unpresidential,” Michelle Obama said. “It’s his same old con: doubling down on ugly, misogynistic, racist lies as a substitute for real ideas and solutions that will actually make people’s lives better.”

She also unspooled an anti-Trump thread that I haven’t seen Democrats use as often as they might have over the past decade, perhaps because they generally avoid explicit appeals based on class:

But her speech peaked with her invocation of Trump’s derogatory reference to “Black jobs”:

Georgia Representin’

We’re not going back to the days of fusty convention roll calls:

What Else Did You Miss?

Meanwhile, In Milwaukee …

The Harris-Walz ticket filled the NBA arena in Milwaukee that hosted the Republican convention last month, a split-screen primetime feat with the Democratic convention going on 90 miles away in Chicago:

Maria Bartiromo Still Spewing Nonsense On Air

Media Matters flags the xenophobic election conspiracizing that Fox Business News’ Maria Bartiromo has been airing this week:

Maria Bartiromo repeatedly used her Fox Business show to peddle an election fraud conspiracy theory that she claimed originated with the wife of a friend of a friend in Texas and that she made no apparent effort to confirm. But when the Texas Department of Public Safety and the local Republican Party investigated her reckless allegation, they discovered that none of it was true.

More here.

It’s Not Just Trump

TPM’s Khaya Himmelman: Republican State Officials Do Trump’s Election Denying Prep Work For Him

2024 Ephemera

  • The Harris campaign swamped the Trump campaign in fundraising in July. Harris has raised in the vicinity of $500 million in the month since President Biden ended his re-election bid.
  • Reclusive Republican megadonor Timothy Mellon gave another $50 million to a pro-Trump Make America Great Again super PAC, raising his total contributions to the group since the start of 2023 to $115 million.
  • North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in the Crystal Ball Electoral College rating.

Trump Campaign Hack Update

Trump attorney Lindsey Halligan was targeted by the Iranian hacking effort though when it happened and whether it was successful remain unclear, CNN reports.

Santos Is A Two-Time Loser This Week

The same day he pleaded guilty to federal criminal charges, ousted Rep. George Santos (R-NY) saw his civil lawsuit against Jimmy Kimmel dismissed. Santos sued Kimmel for copyright infringement for eliciting and then airing absurd Cameo videos that Santos did.

Important

NYT’s David Sanger: Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat

Yeah, Keep Talking About Michelle Obama ‘Going Low’

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‘The Next 77 Days’: Dem Speakers Urge Voters To Not Get Complacent

The Democratic National Committee hosted the second night of its convention —  themed “A Bold Vision for America’s Future” — on Tuesday. 

A good chunk of the messaging was focused on policy — and specifically, the elements of the progressive agenda implemented by the Biden administration that Donald Trump intends to dismantle — and introducing voters to a more personal side of Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Continue reading “‘The Next 77 Days’: Dem Speakers Urge Voters To Not Get Complacent”

Obama: America Is ‘Ready For A Better Story’

The keynotes of the DNC’s second day ran the tonal gamut. From Doug Emhoff, an intimate and warm portrait of the woman he loves. From Michelle Obama, an urgent call to action, to fend off complacency and prepare for the torrent of lies and inevitable attempts to overturn a Trump loss from the right. From Barack Obama, fan service peppered with his old catchphrases, a story of redemption and of hope.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz played to a packed Milwaukee rally — the very venue where the Republicans held their convention. Boasting two full arenas, a scratchy-voiced Harris beamed into Chicago for brief remarks.

Follow our live coverage below:

Hey Now!!! We’re Going to Make It!

We are down to under $35,000 $31,000 $12,000 $10,000 before we hit $500,000. We’re in the final countdown. I’m trying to balance my and our excitement that we’re going to hit the goal with whatever encouragement I can give you to help us get past the finish line. But I’ll just say we’re so pumped and also … well, this is a great time to contribute! Just click here.

Will Kevin McCarthy’s Revenge Tour Defeat His Biggest Enemy?

You’d be forgiven for not remembering that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is facing a challenger tonight in the Republican primary election in his home state — with the House out on recess and the 2024 presidential campaign season in full swing, Gaetz hasn’t had much room to troll his way into the news in recent weeks (though he did make some headlines with his … stiff appearance during a speech at the RNC last month).

Continue reading “Will Kevin McCarthy’s Revenge Tour Defeat His Biggest Enemy?”

Some Thoughts About Bad Reportage

I’ve been having a series of discussions about press coverage over the last couple weeks and they’ve drawn some seemingly not entirely related issues together in my mind. So this post won’t have a fully linear structure or focused point. It’s more collecting together notes I’ve been keeping in my head.

In a staff discussion several days ago we got to talking about how recently a lot of political press reporting just seems … well, bad. Everyone’s a critic of course. And TPM has always been critical of many things about mainstream media. But it seems worse. So we were discussing, is that really the case? Is it different? And if so, why would that be? We didn’t come up with any answers but we discussed some structural factors that I think play at least some significant role.

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Republican State Officials Do Trump’s Election Denying Prep Work For Him

State-level Republican officials have been making a big show of the work they are doing to boot alleged non-citizens from the voting rolls — an emphasis that echoes the efforts by presidential candidate Donald Trump and congressional Republicans to stoke pre-election panic about the false and dangerous narrative that non-citizens are voting en masse for Democrats.

Continue reading “Republican State Officials Do Trump’s Election Denying Prep Work For Him”

With An ‘I Love You,’ Harris Assumes Biden’s Mantle

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Biden Heads Off On Vacation … Literally

President Biden left Chicago early this morning and flew to California, where he and his family will spend the rest of Democratic convention week vacationing in Santa Ynez.

For those who don’t watch or will only see parts of the convention, I want to make it easy to catch up in Morning Memo. So here goes with a few video clips and links to TPM’s deeper coverage:

‘I Love You’

The Man Can Preach

History Likes A Little Irony

Go Deeper

For more complete highlights from TPM:

About The Protests

Monday was expected to see the largest pro-Palestinian protest at the Democratic convention, but the size of the demonstration was well short of what organizers had expected. Farah Stockman was there and took the opportunity to explore the long-running effort to place Palestinians on equal footing with Israel in the eyes of the Democratic Party.

On The Trail

  • Spot the racism: At a Pennsylvania campaign rally Monday, Donald Trump ramped up his effort to “other” Kamala Harris, asking aloud: “I wonder if they knew where she comes from, where she came from, what her ideology is.” It’s the oldest play in Trump’s playbook.
  • Under his skin: Harris is holding a rally tonight at the Milwaukee arena that hosted the GOP convention, apparently hoping to fill it up as a jab at Trump, who suffers from insecurity about his crowd size.
  • On brand: Former Appeals Court Judge J. Michael Luttig, a leading anti-Trump conservative, endorsed Kamala Harris.

It Was Iran

Elements of the U.S. intelligence community issued a joint statement Monday pinning blame on Iran for a hack-and-leak operation against the Trump campaign that also targeted the Biden-Harris campaign:

The IC is confident that the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties. Such activity, including thefts and disclosures, are intended to influence the U.S. election process. It is important to note that this approach is not new. Iran and Russia have employed these tactics not only in the United States during this and prior federal election cycles but also in other countries around the world.

Welp …

As expected, the Georgia Election Board passed that new MAGA-backed rule that makes it easier to delay the certification of election results.

Good Read

ProPublica: Armed and Underground: Inside the Turbulent, Secret World of an American Militia

Santos Pleads Guilty

As TPM’s Hunter Walker first reported last week, ousted Rep. George Santos (R-NY) entered into a plea agreement to resolve the criminal charges against him, pleading guilty yesterday to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft as part of a plea agreement.

Super proud of the TPM team for unearthing elements of the scheme that ultimately led to some of the most serious criminal charges Santos faced.

Didn’t See That Coming

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is not opposing Donald Trump’s request to delay his sentencing in the hush money case for a second time. Rather, Bragg told the the court he would defer to it on whether a delay was appropriate.

Part of what Bragg is trying to anticipate is all of the security measures needed to be in place for the sentencing of a former president; he doesn’t want to go to all of that trouble if Trump successfully appeals to pause sentencing until the immunity issues are resolved.

All of this stems from the Supreme Court’s horrendous ruling on presidential immunity, which potentially implicates some of the evidence used to obtain Trump’s conviction.

What A Mess

On Friday, the Supreme Court blocked the Biden administration’s new rule under Title IX that, among many other things, offers protections for transgender students. But the rule does a lot more than that, including touching on many areas of education that have nothing to do with gender identity. Nonetheless, the Supreme Court blocked it all for now while litigation proceeds. For a deep dive on the many ways the high court, including the dissenting justices, made a mess of this case, Steve Vladeck has you covered.

On Climate Change

I try to strike a balance on climate change coverage among (i) sounding the alarm, which frankly this audience doesn’t really need, (ii) accessible stories about what is already being done on the ground by governments and the private sector; and (iii) how to think smartly about something on this monumental of a scale, both physically and temporally.

Jeff Masters has a deeply written new essay for Yale Climate Connections that combines all three elements as he tried to answer the question: When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?

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