By now you’ve likely read details of the project of intimidation underway in Florida as voters in the state try to place a measure to protect abortion on November’s ballot. The Tampa Bay Times and other local news outlets have reported in recent days that police have been going to the homes of Florida residents who signed a petition to help get Amendment 4 on the ballot and questioning individuals about their signatures. Big picture, it looks as if Gov. Ron DeSantis has come up with a new, creatively frightening way to turn Florida into a police state.
Continue reading “DeSantis Finds New Dystopian Activity To Keep His Election Police Busy”Trump’s Authoritarian Promise Is Distilled Into A Single Paragraph
Good morning — it’s John and Nicole today. David will be back on Tuesday.
As always: a lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
Stop the Steal 2.0 cranks into a higher gear
Donald Trump stepped off stage in Wisconsin Saturday and blasted out a social media post that crammed his authoritarian promise into a 159-word paragraph. The Truth Social post went up at 7:01 p.m. ET; it was copy-pasted over to the platform formerly known as Twitter some two hours later, where the larger audience there heard the same message. (The candidate’s X account has largely been posting campaign memes and press release-like announcements since it was reactivated.)
CEASE & DESIST: I, together with many Attorneys and Legal Scholars, am watching the Sanctity of the 2024 Presidential Election very closely because I know, better than most, the rampant Cheating and Skullduggery that has taken place by the Democrats in the 2020 Presidential…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 8, 2024
It was a return to dangerous form after the Republican candidate spent August subdued, seemingly sad that he would not be facing Joe Biden after all. The post claimed, incorrectly, that Democrats stole the election in 2020. It promised votes in the 2024 election “will be under the closest professional scrutiny.”
“WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences,” Trump wrote. This threat, he promised, “extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials.”
In a way, this is familiar. It’s also quite serious: a promise to imprison his enemies, junta-style, that extends not just to his political foes but to those who run elections and those who donate money to candidates. It’s a broadside against Democratic society of the sort that was unrivaled in American history before Trump. It’s a kind of high water mark, even for him.
The threat functions on a few levels. It is a bid to instill fear in those who oppose him, to intimidate voters — a note picked up on by Marc Elias, a longtime Democratic election lawyer currently working for Kamala Harris. “We won’t let Donald Trump intimidate us,” he wrote on social media. “We won’t let him suppress the vote.”
The ominous post also signals to his base, again, that any election Trump loses is not one they can accept. And it rehashes the 2020 lie, after various allies (including the white nationalist Groypers) expressed exasperation that he, briefly, dropped his election denying during a podcast interview last week.
On Sunday, he moved from the broad to the specific, pointing in a Truth Social post to an interview on Tucker Carlson’s show to claim, falsely, that 20 percent of mail in ballots in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania are fraudulent. “We will WIN Pennsylvania by a lot, unless the Dems are allowed to CHEAT. THE RNC MUST ACTIVATE, NOW!!!” he declared. (Carlson’s guest was talking — inaccurately — about the 2020 election. Trump’s Truth Social post suggests that the statistic applied instead to 2024, which would be even more preposterous: Pennsylvania officials have not processed any 2024 mail-in ballots yet.)
Like in 2020, there’s little room to be surprised here. Trump — especially over the last 72 hours — is telling us exactly what to expect in November.
Seriously and literally, pt. 1,000,000
Trump had some other things to say while on the stump over the weekend.
- He theorized that executing his plan to deport undocumented immigrants would be “a bloody story.”
Trump yesterday in Wisconsin on his promised mass deportation: "Getting them out will be a bloody story." pic.twitter.com/JlcpdWkUG4
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 8, 2024
- He promised to get rid of the Department of Education, telling his Wisconsin audience he would “send it back to the states” so that “Ron Johnson can run it.”
Trump: "I'm dying to get back to do this: We will ultimately eliminate the federal Department of Education and send education back to Wisconsin and back to the states. We'll send it back to the states so that Ron Johnson can run it." pic.twitter.com/5sN1vzzamG
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 7, 2024
Project 2025, stand back and stand by
In case you were still keeping tabs, political prosecutions, mass deportations, and scrapping the Department of Education are all part of Project 2025, the deeply unpopular agenda for a second term produced by reactionary think tanks and former Trump administration staffers about which the former president insists he knows nothing.
Debate week round-up
- A pre-debate Times/Siena poll was released Sunday, showing Trump one point ahead of Harris. Times polling guy Nate Cohn tries to make sense of whether this poll is an outlier or signals a shift in the race.
- A CBS/YouGov poll finds Trump and Harris effectively tied in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. No matter what poll or polling aggregator you look at, the race is incredibly close.
- Harris and Walz plan to campaign in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin following the debate.
- Liz Cheney revealed Friday that her notorious dad, Dick Cheney, is worried enough about Trump that he, too, will be voting for Harris. “In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” the elder Cheney said in a statement later that day.
- At the Saturday rally, Trump shrugged off the DOJ’s series of recent announcements about Russia’s attempt to interfere in the election, including the allegation that Russian operatives had tricked very high profile, U.S.-based conservative influencers into ending up on RT’s payroll. “It’s Russia, Russia, Russia all over again,” Trump said.
- ‘Rigged’: Trump reported plan of attack during the debate is to whine about the rules and accuse the moderators of being biased. Nothing new there.
House GOP may force shutdown to appease Trump
The House is back from recess this week and expected to begin deliberations on spending bills ahead of a government funding deadline at the end of the month. Nicole wrote last week about House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) loyalty to Trump and how the speaker may find himself caving to demands from his far-right flank, which includes attaching a redundant bill that makes non-citizen voting illegal (it’s already illegal) to any stopgap funding bill brought to the floor in coming weeks.
In doing so, House Republicans are helping Trump spread lies about the myth of non-citizen voting, and giving him some baseless voter fraud fodder to point to if he loses in the fall.
Politico has new reporting this morning that suggests Johnson may be having second thoughts about linking the pieces of legislation, as his speakership may also be hanging in the balance: Johnson’s future speakership could hinge on the spending fight.
Ken Paxton continues to terrorize constituents
AP: Texas sues to stop a rule that shields the medical records of women who seek abortions elsewhere
It’s not clear whether public officials have sought patient medical records related to abortion. But the state has sought records related to gender-affirming care, demanding them from at least two out-of-state health centers last year. Like many Republican-controlled states, Texas bans gender-affirming care for minors.
Ron DeSantis continues to terrorize constituents
Tampa Bay Times: Floridians unnerved by police visits about abortion petition signatures
The officer’s visit appears to be part of a broad — and unusual — effort by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration to inspect thousands of already verified and validated petitions for Amendment 4 in the final two months before Election Day. The amendment would overturn Florida’s six-week abortion ban by proposing to protect abortion access in Florida until viability.
Good luck this week
David has gotten into recommending music in here lately, a development we support. In that spirit, John recommends you take a listen to MJ Lenderman’s new album, ideal for fans of Bill Callahan, Hurray for the Riff Raff, Silver Jews, Songs: Ohia, Wilco, Waxahatchee, that sort of thing.
Have a good day. 🫡
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Pacing Yourself with Polls
I wanted to share a few thoughts about the Times/Siena poll which has sent more than a few people reeling today. If you haven’t seen it, the new Times/Siena poll shows Donald Trump with a one-point lead over Harris nationally. That’s the first major poll to show Trump in the lead in weeks. What do I make of it? Not a huge amount. And I would recommend the same to anyone else.
It’s certainly possible that this is a leading indicator of a shift in support away from Harris after a month and a half of generally positive news and poll numbers. But you simply can’t change your whole theory of the race around a single poll. I’m not going to get into picking apart all the details of the poll. And I’m definitely not going to try to unskew it. It’s a quality poll. But it does show a very different race than other polls we’re seeing — ones taken over the same time period, ones with which we’re able to make pretty straightforward apples-to-apples comparisons. It’s not just the top-line number that’s different. It shows a more popular Trump, a less popular Harris, key demographics much closer to how they were when Joe Biden was still the nominee.
Continue reading “Pacing Yourself with Polls”The Art Of The Sentencing
Hello, it’s the weekend. This is The Weekender ☕
If Trump’s sentencing hearing happens on its new date of November 26, we’ll know a few things.
Continue reading “The Art Of The Sentencing”Inside TPM with John Light
One of the great mysteries of the world is how the news gets made. Theories abound. The reality is every newsroom is its own little ecosystem with its own way of doing things. I worked in several newsrooms before arriving at TPM, and TPM operates in a way that was vastly different from any other. I noticed the conspicuous lack of meetings and that nobody really had a “beat” — two things I had supposed were universal. But of course, TPM is not your average news gathering operation. So, in this episode of Inside TPM, I spoke to Managing Editor John Light to find out how the news gets made at TPM. We discussed how the team decides what is newsworthy, how the team tries to serve readers, and even how he thinks TPM would cover Tony Soprano if he were a real person. (The answer surprised me!)
All that and more in this month’s episode of Inside TPM.
BREAKING … Or At Least Something Josh Is Obsessing About
So after my last update below, new reports from TPM readers have confirmed that the Mailer Storm overwhelming the mailboxes of partisan Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia are all coming from a single zip code in Jacksonville, Florida (32204) and presumably a single vendor. This notwithstanding the fact that they are all going out as sent from the respective Republican parties of the respective states. That’s not terribly strange in itself. Direct mail is a national business. It’s actually not okay to use state parties, which have preferential mail rates, as pure passthroughs, but I’m told it’s a widespread practice and rules against it are basically unenforced. The one exception may be the mailers going out in Pennsylvania. The mailers are all the same in every state. But the ones in Pennsylvania are the only ones that are from a state party committee rather than the state party, and their “nonprofit indicia” mark does not include the the zip code they are mailed from.
Judge Delays Trump’s New York Sentencing Until After Election
The New York state judge presiding over Donald Trump’s hush money case pushed the GOP candidate’s sentencing until past the November election, saying in a Friday order that the upcoming election had played a role in his decision.
Continue reading “Judge Delays Trump’s New York Sentencing Until After Election”My Hunt After the Mailer Storm Mystery Continues!
I wanted to update you on the mailers story I discussed with you yesterday. Before getting to the details, I want to thank everyone who sent in reports. Really, really helpful. In fact, what I’m doing would be completely impossible without them. I’m going to assume you read yesterday’s post, which has various caveats and context. If not, you can read it here.
- First, there are a lot of people talking about this independently in different swing states. Like, it’s really a thing. I was listening in on a Zoom call yesterday about a state legislative race in North Carolina and the topic actually came up — how we’re all getting spammed by these Trump mailers. And to be clear, this was a call where everyone was either a party official or a partisan Democrat or actually a candidate. From this and other discussions with TPM readers it’s clear this is being discussed as a minor mystery among Democrats in each swing state but with everyone thinking that it’s just their town or state and not something that’s happening in all the swing states.
Alleged Assailants In Trump’s Arlington Cemetery Fiasco Identified
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
Drip, Drip, Drip
NPR has been leading the pack in the reporting on Trump’s violation of the Arlington National Cemetery rules against political activities. It was the first to report that there had been an altercation of some sort between two Trump campaign staffers and a cemetery staffer who was trying to enforce the rules. Now NPR has identified those staffers:
The two staffers, according to a source with knowledge of the incident, are deputy campaign manager Justin Caporale and Michel Picard, a member of Trump’s advance team.
According to the NPR report, both staffers verbally abused the cemetery worker, but it was Picard who allegedly pushed her aside:
When an ANC employee tried to enforce the rules, she was verbally abused by the two Trump campaign operatives, according to a source with knowledge of the incident. Picard then pushed her out of the way according to two Pentagon officials.
Caporale, as a deputy campaign manager, is the higher ranking of the two staffers. He used to work for Melania Trump in the White House before he reportedly ran into problems with his security clearance and was let go by then-White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. As NPR notes, Caporale also served in another notable capacity:
He was also listed as the on-site contact and project manager for the Women for America First rally in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021 where Trump urged the crowd to “stop the steal” before some of them stormed the U.S. Capitol.
Neither Caporale nor Picard commented to NPR.
The Supreme Court’s Handiwork On Full Display
Yesterday’s first hearing in the Jan. 6 case since the Supreme Court rocked the constitutional foundation with its presidential immunity decision showed what a difficult of not impossible task it left for U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan. She threw some light shade toward the Trump team and more indirectly toward the high court, but she seemed resigned to having to make lot of difficult decisions ahead with little guidance from the justices and ample opportunities for her to be second guessed.
The hearing produced no major news that changes the complexion or trajectory of the case. It’s not going to proceed as slowly as Trump wants, but it’s going to be awfully slow to work through the immunity issues and have those go up on appeal yet again. So much still has to happen in the pretrial phase that Chutkan didn’t bother to set a trial date.
U.S. Comes Down Hard On Russia
The traditional post-Labor Day start to the campaign season kicked off this week with a wide-ranging sweep by federal authorities of a variety of alleged Russian election interference and other clandestine operations.
In addition to the bogus media startup that was allegedly funneling Russian cash to right-wing influencers, other law enforcement moves this week included:
- DC think tanker and former Trump 2016 campaign adviser Dimitri Simes was charged with money laundering and sanctions violations for allegedly working with a Russian state TV network. His wife was indicted separately.
- DOJ announced a superseding indictment in Russia’s WhisperGate malware attacks targeting computer systems in Ukraine, the United States and more than two dozen NATO countries.
- Meanwhile, The Blaze terminated its contract with YouTuber Lauren Chen, a co-founder with her husband of the startup Tenet Media, which was paying exorbitant sums to the likes of Benny Johnson and Tim Pool, who were not charged and claimed to have been victimized by the Russian scheme. YouTube took down the channels of Tenet Media and Chen.
China, Too
NYT: The Secrets of an Unassuming N.Y. Official Accused of Working for China
Expected Today
New York state Judge Juan Merchan originally planned to issue a decision Thursday on whether to delay the Sept. 18 sentencing of Donald Trump in the hush money case, but he missed his self-imposed deadline. He now expects to rule today.
Meanwhile, Trump has filed a new appeal in the Second Circuit to try to reverse a federal judge’s decision not allowing him to seek removal of the hush money case to federal court.
For The Record
Just Security: Chronology of a Dozen Times Trump Pushed to Prosecute His Perceived Enemies
No Deal: Hunter Biden Pleads Guilty
Hunter Biden faces up to 17 years in prison and $1.3 million in fines after he pleaded guilty to federal tax charges – apparently without the benefit of a plea deal with Special Counsel David Weiss.
The surprise change of plea came as jury selection was set to begin Thursday in Los Angeles. Biden initially tried to enter an Alford plea, where he concedes there is sufficient evidence to convict him but doesn’t accept guilt. Weiss rebuffed that legal gambit, and subsequent negotiations failed to yield a plea agreement, at which point Biden capitulated.
The only obvious upsides for Biden of pleading guilty are perhaps some leniency for it in sentencing and sparing his family, including potential witnesses, from the rigors of a trial.
Not Normal
With Hunter Biden and the nonsense of the “Biden Crime Family” now a dead end for House Republicans, they are shifting their focus to the new Democratic ticket:
The House Republicans have turned the machinery of their committees against the Democratic presidential ticket. It’s a preview of what they’ll face if Republicans keep the House and Harris manages to defeat former President Donald Trump.
It’s so striking to see how much we’ve normalized House Republicans abusing their congressional powers for purely partisan political purposes
2024 Ephemera
- MT-Sen: In a lightly polled race, a new AARP survey of likely voters finds Tim Sheehy (R) leading Sen. Jon Tester (D) 49%-41% in a four-way matchup and 51%-45% in a two-way race.
- White evangelicals are taking notice of Donald Trump’s double talk on abortion.
- By conceding that he lost in 2020 “by a whisker,” Donald Trump has induced a meltdown by the likes of once-stalwart supporters like Nick Fuentes.
You Look Like Friday Night
The TPM team will put out Monday’s Morning Memo. I’ll be back Tuesday. Enjoy your weekend:
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Donald Trump Has Triggered A Groyper Meltdown
After Donald Trump announced Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) as his running mate several weeks back, we noted the racist meltdown that was collectively had by some of Trump’s most ardently white nationalist supporters over Vance’s wife, a woman of Indian heritage with immigrant parents. Among the most upset about Vance was the white nationalist groyper chieftain Nick Fuentes.
Continue reading “Donald Trump Has Triggered A Groyper Meltdown”