A Very Important Story (With Some Wonky Details)

TPM’s Layla A. Jones and Josh Kovensky published a major story yesterday outlining a new, draft Commerce Department rule that is circulating within the Trump administration. Our story includes documents that TPM is the first outlet to make public.

The rule aims to do two things: exclude undocumented immigrants and other types of non-citizens from the census (in violation of the Constitution), and stop the census from collecting most demographic data on Americans.

These changes would have several impacts, the enormity of which is hard to overstate:

• They would likely change allocations of power in Congress, shifting it toward red states. After the decennial census, the federal government apportions congressional seats to states. A census that doesn’t count many categories of non-citizens would see fewer congressional seats apportioned to blue states, and, as a result, more apportioned to red states.
• They would likely change the Electoral College, again shifting power toward red states. The Electoral College is based on each state’s congressional allotment. Fewer seats for blue states in Congress would mean blue-state voters have less power to elect the president.
• They would eliminate a crucial source of data. By not collecting data on race and other demographics, the administration would eliminate information that is critical both for the government, as it distributes congressionally allocated funds to various communities meant to receive those funds, and to researchers trying to better understand America.
• They would make it harder to challenge maps that are gerrymandered based on race. Data on race is a critical tool for plaintiffs looking to prove that state governments have illegally carved up their congressional districts to dilute the power of minority voters. “You have to prove discrimination, you have to prove the fact that you have been discriminated against,” Walter Schwarm, a California state demographer, told TPM. “But if you don’t have race and ethnic data on the ground, how can you prove that you’re being discriminated against?”

Another Big Primary Night

Last night saw voters pick candidates in several states, including Minnesota, South Carolina, and the swing state of Wisconsin.

• Primaries are very hard to poll, in part because pollsters try to model a comparatively small and shifting electorate. It’s effectively taking a guess about who might vote in the primary, which can change a lot from year to year. Even so, this year has seen some headline-grabbing polling misses, including in Michigan last week, where Haley Stevens came much closer to Abdul El-Sayed than polls were predicting. Last night saw that phenomenon repeat again, in the closely-watched Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, and also in the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary.
• In Minnesota, Mike Lindell lost his bid for governor! More on that below.
• In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County executive David Crowley squeaked out a victory in the Democratic gubernatorial primary over the DSA-endorsed Francesca Hong, who has become a kind of media obsession. Gov. Tony Evers (D) campaigned for Crowley, believing him to be a more competitive candidate against Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), the very right-wing member of Congress Republicans are running for governor. The race, in which over 600,000 votes were cast, came down to about 3,000.
• Rebecca Cooke, a Democrat endorsed by figures in both the party establishment and the left, won a primary to face Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, which covers a large, western chunk of the state.
• Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), the man who called for “Marshall Law” after Jan. 6, yet has had a hot and cold relationship with Trump, beat out a very crowded field and advanced to a runoff against Sen. Darline Graham (R) in South Carolina.

Tabs

• A U.S. District Court judge expanded a ruling blocking the Trump administration from implementing one of the president’s executive orders on voting ahead of the midterms. Judge Indira Talwani of the District of Massachusetts had previously ordered the administration not to move forward on figuring out how the U.S. Postal Service would implement the directive that it only send mail ballots to administration-approved voters. Her initial order applied to 23 states that were plaintiffs in the case; yesterday she expanded it nationwide. Trump has appealed this case to the Supreme Court, which should weigh in any day now.
• The MIT Technology Review has a fascinating deep dive on how conspiracy theories about the “censorship-industrial complex” became endemic among right-wing influencers and the Trump administration.

Man of the Hour

It’s Mike Lindell, who polling showed to be a strong contender in his bid for Minnesota governor, even as state Republican leaders strongly opposed his candidacy. Alas, he wasn’t. We’ll see if he understands a global conspiracy to be at fault here.

Are We at War?

Yes, with Iran preparing for the long haul.