As I’ve written a few times, we can’t over-read any single move in the broad contest over big societal institutions obeying or resisting Trump administration diktats. But Sinclair Broadcasting just announced they’re ending their “preemption” of the Jimmy Kimmel show. Even their own statement seems to make clear that while they asked for concessions from ABC/Disney they didn’t get any.

As we hurtle toward an almost inevitable government shutdown, I want to note one part of the discussion I’ve seen among commentators. This is a bit in the weeds but I think it’s worth discussing. Some writers say that it’s actually a mistake for Democrats to make any policy demands in the budget standoff. So health care, pushing back on ICE, standing up for democracy … regardless of the specific demand, it’s a mistake. I noticed Bill Scher making this argument today in The Washington Monthly. I’ve seen TPM alum Brian Beutler in his Off Message substack newsletter. And these are only a couple of examples.

The argument goes like this.

These shutdown standoffs are technical budgetary questions. The side that is making policy demands is basically taking the budget hostage to extract extraneous policy concessions. Based on the evidence of the last 20-30 years of history, that side is the one who gets blamed for the shutdown because they’re “taking the budget hostage” or introducing extraneous demands even if those demands are good ones on the merits or even supported by the public. Beutler focuses on the “hostage taking” metaphor. Scher puts it this way:

Every past attempt to use government shutdowns to extract policy concessions has failed, even when the policy demands are politically popular, because shutdowns make people forget what you have to say. Public attention shifts to how shutdowns hurt average Americans and how one political party is willing to harm constituents to play political games. Once public opinion quickly turns, the shutdown agitators invariably realize the shutdown failed to provide negotiating leverage and eventually cave.

I have a growing sense of optimism about the political situation in the United States. But it’s not necessarily because I’m more confident about the outcomes, though I am that too. It is more that on a number of fronts the actual fight is coming into the open. Who knows who wins or gets the better of it. But the things the Trump opposition is actually talking about are getting put on the table. And they’re at the center of the table, with everyone watching. They’re fights to get attention and attention outside of the normal political space.

The Jimmy Kimmel Brouhaha is one example of this, which I discussed earlier this week. The impending budget fight is another. I’m also seeing more and more examples of Democrats telling corporations, laws firms and others that Trump won’t be in power forever, and that when that time comes they’ll need to answer for conspiring with President Trump against the American people. Minority Leader Jeffries made clear that when Democrats are in power they’ll hold people accountable for participating in Trump’s pay-to-play schemes.

Kate and Josh talk Kimmel’s return, the corruption of the White House and how regular people keep smacking down Trump’s authoritarian attacks.

For the last 48 hours or so, Trump’s toadies and martinets have been putting on a performance which is one half gaslighting, one half effort to create a bit of distance between FCC Chair Brendan Carr’s extortion and ABC’s decision to (now-temporarily) pull Jimmy Kimmel off the air. Then, late last night, President Trump busted all of their knees by insisting it was him doing it all along and says now he’s going to go to war even harder against ABC/Disney for having the temerity to bring Kimmel back after (Trump claims) telling him they canceled his show.

On November 6th and 7th we’re celebrating the 25th anniversary of TPM. It’s a two-day event in New York City — a TPM mini-festival: night one a discussion and oral history of TPM featuring TPM alums, current staff and special guests, followed by a live podcast and mega cocktail hour at the historic Metrograph Theater Manhattan. Night two a big party at The Bogart House in Brooklyn. Tickets are officially on sale now. We’re also offering sponsorship passes for those who’d like a few extra goodies and also help defray the costs of the event to keep ticket prices reasonable for other attendees. If you’re a member, there’s an email you received this morning with links to purchase your tickets. We can’t wait to see you.

Bloomberg columnist Ron Brownstein posted this this morning on Twitter.

Disney’s initial surrender over [Jimmy] Kimmel marked another ominous advance in Trump’s campaign to suppress dissent. Kimmel’s restoration shows those willing to resist that campaign can tap into a deep well of public concern. But this fight is hardly over, for any of Trump’s targets.

He’s exactly right. This goes to a topic we’ve frequently discussed: not simply the deep well of public concern but the civic totems that makes American blanch at the idea that the chair of the Federal Communications Commission should act like a Minister of Propaganda or Speech Commissar.

As Ron says, this is far from over. This morning, Nexstar has announced that it won’t resume airing Jimmy Kimmel’s show on the ABC affiliates it owns. I believe Sinclair, a far-right company which also owns a large number of affiliates, says the same.

There are many threads surrounding the MAGA right’s ongoing martyr-making and canonization of Charlie Kirk. We know about the tendentious rewriting of history both from Kirk’s stalwarts and his fellow travelers; we know how his death is being used as the pretext for various crackdowns on free speech and domestic enemies. But the part of this saga that is most interesting to me is the part that is based on a fairly simple and lazy misunderstanding. It’s not a terribly large part of the story but it contains some interesting dimensions.

Ezra Klein, rather notoriously, eulogized Kirk as someone who was doing politics right. He wanted to debate everyone. He was a master of persuasion, Klein claimed. California Gov. Gavin Newsom made similar points. Each of them made slightly better points than their one-line quotes that have gotten the most circulation. But in those comments and in their penumbras an idea got hatched that Kirk was an example of people debating their disagreements, engaging rather than retreating to their echo-chamber bubbles.

The Trump administration is preparing to bail out the Argentine economy, whose current President is Trump ally Javier Milei. Says Reuters, “Markets have been roiled by corruption allegations inside Milei’s circle and a larger-than-expected loss in a local election in Buenos Aires …”