Let me share with you some graphs of the COVID19 outbreak in New York, across the United States and then their relationship to each other.
Some new and very interesting information from the Bedford Lab in Washington State. I’ve mentioned Bedford’s work a few times. He runs a research lab at the Fred Hutchinson Center where he studies viral genomes. It was his work that initially revealed that in late February that COVID19 had been spreading in Washington state for some six weeks. He just posted another Twitter thread in which he says there is now a critical mass of genomic sequencing data from different parts of the United States and the world that allows us to construct a preliminary map of how the disease spread across the United States.
Was there a single patient zero from whom the US epidemic originated or were there multiple separate introductions from different parts of the world? Or what was the mix of the two?
Senator Rand Paul said a short while ago that all the public health interventions New York City ended up taking probably didn’t make any difference in the outcome of the epidemic – a completely ignorant statement that flies in the face of over 150 years of modern public health work more and arguably thousands of years of human history. He harnesses the facts of public health to the shibboleths of his libertarian ideology: “A lot of what happens with the virus is independent of what government does.”
Whenever Paul says nonsensical stuff like this I’m reminded that he either could not or would not get board certified in his area of medical specialty – ophthalmology – and instead created his own mail order professional certification organization to accredit himself. He’s the story, from a decade ago.
The whole conversation about ‘reopening’ continues to presume growing public pressure to do so and to move faster than the country already is. But all the available evidence about public opinion suggests this isn’t the case. The smattering of public polls which have come out over the last month show the states with aggressive containment policies with sky high approval ratings for their governors and much lower ones for states that are moving quickly to end or loosen the lockdowns. Now a new poll from The Washington Post shows the pattern even more systematically and starkly.
Here’s the visual breakdown.
We’ll have more coming soon that takes up the points TPM Reader SS raises here about the oral arguments in the Mazars/Deutsche Bank cases:
JoinI found the livestream of the arguments fascinating. I also found, somewhat disturbingly, that none of the commentators/blogs/websites that I follow (all of a liberal bent, so to speak) seemed to speak to what I thought was the main weakness of Congress’ case. (Note: while I’m not a practicing lawyer, I was, at one point, a member of the DC Bar).
President Trump has repeatedly conflated limiting air travel from China to avoiding “Chinatowns” in the United States. But recent articles note something perhaps counterintuitive about the experience of New York City. Both historic Chinatown in Lower Manhattan (see here) and at least one other Queens neighborhood (see here) with a high concentration of immigrants from Asia have among the lowest COVID19 infection rates. The reasons are intuitive: these communities were focused on COVID early and they’re part of a cultural space in which the experience of SARS in 2003 is very strong. Mask wearing among Asian-Americans and Asian immigrants started in New York City two or three weeks before the city locked down.
TPM Reader JGi thin draws what I think is the most important lesson we can draw …
It’s been a long time since we had a major case or hearing to focus our coverage around, let alone two in one day.
Follow our coverage of the Supreme Court oral arguments this morning in those critical separation of powers cases right here.
One of the signatures of the COVID19 crisis in the US is how little critical information came from the US government sources. The canonical source of death tolls in and out of the United States is a project at Johns Hopkins University. The canonical sources of testing and infection data is a volunteer project spearheaded by a data guy and a journalist at The Atlantic. Yet even in the Trump Era the CDC does continue to do some public health research and publish their findings. Here’s a write-up from Josh Kovensky on a new CDC report which looks at excess mortality data to find that more than 24,000 people in New York died between March 11th and May 2nd as a result of the epidemic.
President Trump just unveiled his unofficial new campaign slogan: Transition Into Greatness! Rolls off the tongue, no?
MAGA recedes into memory. TIG limps to the fore. Big shoes to fill.