EDITORS' BLOG
Making Sense of the (Happy) Mystery of the Declining COVID Death Toll
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One of the true mysteries of this stage of the COVID Crisis in the United States is why the death toll from the disease continues to fall, albeit slowly, even after months of plateaued cases and weeks of rapid case growth in most of the country. The White House has glommed on to this disjuncture in a highly dishonest and opportunistic way. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to understand what’s happening on its own terms.

It is helpful to distinguish between two issues.

The first is the range of potential reasons why fewer people may be dying of COVID or becoming severely ill even though more people are getting it – even taking into account more testing. I want to devote another post to making sense of potential reasons for this. They are a variety of factors including the age profile of people getting infected, an improved standard of care, perhaps even people becoming infected with less intensive exposure.

Again, we’ll come back to those in another post.

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On the Schools #1
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From TPM Reader JS on the whether the schools should reopen in the Fall …

I’m a high school teacher. I teach math in a rural, Title I school. I have very conflicted feelings about the re-opening, but I can tell you there is a very vocal portion of my colleagues that feel like being sent back this fall is being treated like cannon fodder (check out /r/teachers for example). I disagree with that and I think between masking and the mounting evidence that children are weaker vectors, makes the situation more manageable. I’m also a parent I know that my kids need to do something soon or they are going to be damaged for life, not just due to lost learning (something in my household that isn’t as big of a problem) but due to the isolation.

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School Reopening and Magical Thinking
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We’re now down to little more than two months before school starts in most of the country and a great many districts, if not necessarily most, are yet to announce definitive plans for how they are going to conduct school in the Fall semester. Indeed, the entire subject of school closures and openings is another example of a country trapped in magical thinking, yet another permutation of the “reopening” debate.

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Where Things Stand: Maybe He’s Sort Of Listening
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As we flagged earlier this morning, attendees at President Trump’s upcoming rally in New Hampshire will be “strongly encouraged” to wear masks even though President Trump has thus far refused to wear one in public.

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Even In New York We’re Dropping the Ball

I mentioned yesterday that New York’s COVID numbers were moving in the wrong direction – albeit from extremely low levels and within the range that could simply be statistical noise. Today they’re a bit better. Let’s hope they keep in that direction. But New York, which currently is doing vastly better than any other state in the country, makes a different point. Even here, where daily cases are in the hundreds and the percentage of positive tests hovers around 1% it is not remotely good enough.

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Catastrophe

I seldom think anything good about Donald Trump. I hate what he has done to the country. I hold his enablers even more responsible for what has happened on his watch. But today I feel that stew of emotions in a new, deadening way. I am baffled and aghast and angry in a way that feels new.

The US is not experiencing a COVID surge. We are back to exponential growth in the virus just as most of the rest of the wealthy, industrialized world is moving on. COVID is not done for them of course. There are masks and mitigation and distancing and people are still falling ill. Some are dying. But most of these countries have beaten COVID down into low enough numbers that they can get about the business of a new form of social and economic life.

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Watch Out, New York
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After being the center of the cataclysm, New York State and New York City have become a great COVID success story, showing what’s possible with an aware public, aggressive mitigation and robust testing. But we may be seeing the first hints that the national trends are catching up with this.

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Curbside Only, Folks
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One of the many ancillary insights or interesting developments during the epidemic is the creative use of anonymized big data to learn to things about the outbreak. Mobility data tied to cell phone and mapping apps is one example. Not too long after the outbreak began they started surfacing some of their trove of mobility data for people and public officials making public health decisions. (If you haven’t seen it, check it out here.) Credit card use is another. JPMorgan Chase just released a report based on their own credit cards which suggests a strong correlation between “card present” restaurant purchases and new outbreaks.

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REading LIst
| Cafe

When I decided this month’s reading list would be centered around the idea of beach reads I could not have foreseen the number of cooking memoirs my coworkers would suggest. In retrospect, I shouldn’t be too surprised given the number of recipe swaps that take place among TPM staff and the fact that we have a Slack channel simply entitled “food.”

Now I’m hungry.

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TPM Cafe
| Cafe

"What many black artists and thinkers are confiding in each other in private is that we fear the next wave of 'Native Son' caricatures."

This Again?
| Prime

The plan to keep waging a war of disinformation against the Biden campaign is well underway.

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51st State?
| Prime

Last week, the House passed a bill introduced by Del. Eleanor Norton, D.C.’s sole, non-voting representative, in a historic moment and unprecedented triumph in a years-long battle by district activists for statehood.

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The TPM JOURNALISM FUND
| Miscellany

We’re launching the TPM Journalism Fund as an additional way for readers and members to support TPM. Every dollar contributed goes toward expanding our editorial staff.

Ep. 126: Testing 2.0
Ep. 126: Testing 2.0
Josh, Kate, and David discuss the inadequacies of the COVID testing system the administration has touted as their new-and-improved alternative to the federa...
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