There's a campaign dynamic now coming into view which under other circumstances might only be a matter of trash talk or taunt. In this unique campaign cycle, it will likely be a driving issue. Put simply, as Donald Trump's poll numbers continue to fall - or more likely become more anchored in a position with him clearly behind - he is himself being lowered onto his own personal kryptonite: Loserdom.
One charge, one taunt, one attack will rile and unhinge Donald Trump more than any other. That he's a loser. At the moment, the facts leave little question on this point.
For all the ups and downs, look at this chart to see the basic stability of the presidential race.
Perhaps I'm late to this story, what with so much else going on. But apparently just recently Donald Trump accept Jesus as his savior and is now a born-again Christian.
This is what Dr. James Dobson is telling fellow evangelicals. And it is apparently what Trump told him. Dobson even knows the businessman who recently led Trump to Christ. And it all came out at that big evangelical shindig Trump held a week ago in New York City.
He did accept a relationship with Christ. I know the person who led him to Christ. That's fairly recent.
I hadn't taken Obama's statement that a post-EU UK would have to go 'to the back of the line' for trade negotiations that seriously. I'd seen it as more a nudge to ward off any expectation that trade relations with the US would be instantly restored on some crash course negotiation. But the possibility of the break-up of the UK itself (which seems like a very real possibility to me over the 4 to 5 year time horizon) hadn't occurred to me as a drag on potential negotiations.
Overall, I liked your post about Brexit. I will have to say though that I'm doubtful the US will make a deal with the UK outside the EU a priority.
We are told we are entering a period of economic nationalism and right wing populism. We see it in the UK with Brexit, in the USA with Trumpism and in other nations and regions with their own unique inflections. From others we hear this is simply a tantrum or irrationality, perhaps a generalized breakdown of trust in elites. These are each true to a degree. But I think they are each also quite misleading. I see a very different or much more specific pattern in the country whose politics I know best, the USA, and the demographics and the voting parallels seem evident enough in Britain as well.