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Fashing Very Strongly 

The racist mass shooting in Buffalo seems to have brought us to something of a turning point in the American right’s embrace of “Great Replacement” theory as an operating framework of politics. Rather than running away from Great Replacement thinking, they’ve essentially said, “But it’s true. We can’t help that this one guy took things too far.” Indeed as you can see from our headline piece, Matt Schlapp of CPAC is now suggesting ways to limit political violence within the framework of Great Replacement politics. If you’re worried about immigrants “replacing us” the best strategy is to make more of “us,” by which he means ban abortion and thus increase the birth rate of “us.” Sort of a kinder gentler Great Replacement theory, though possibly not that kind or gentle if you have an unplanned and unwanted pregnancy.

Schlapp didn’t explicitly refer to white babies and brown babies. But I’m not sure he really had to.

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Big Pictures and Small in Ukraine 

RUSSIANS INVADE UKRAINE -- MARCH 22, 2022:  01 Maxar satellite imagery of the overview of fires burning in residential area, Livoberezhnyi District, Mariupol, Ukraine. 22march2022_wv3.   Please use: Satellite image (c) 2022 Maxar Technologies.

I went back and forth over whether to share this email from TPM Reader ME. But I decided to do so because I think he focuses our attention on aspects of the Ukraine war which aren’t at the top of the headlines but are central to how this conflict turns out and how the conflict plays out beyond Ukraine’s borders. I confess that while I certainly knew how Ukraine is the “breadbasket of Russia” or the “breadbasket of Europe” I didn’t appreciate how central Ukrainian grain production remains in our globalized 21st century world when so many regions of the world have been opened to mechanized agriculture and the trade systems that move grain production worldwide.

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Three for Me, One for You 

It was only a matter of time. A candidate for Governor in Colorado has a proposal: create an in-state electoral college that will systematically over-weight rural votes and thus make it almost impossible for a Republican not to win the governorship as well as other statewide offices. Basically, counties take the place of states and Colorado has a ton of rural counties where very few people live. From what I can tell, he’s not the most likely nominee. But he won the top spot on the primary ballot at the state convention. So he’s not some random gadfly either. In any case, Gov. Jared Polis is popular and seems like a shoe-in for reelection. But this seems like the leading edge of the broader trend.

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Up Your Nose 

Some clarification from TPM Reader RM on nasal vaccines and their utility.

I just thought I would add to your statement that nasal vaccines “likely offer a different level or kind of immunity”.  This is totally correct, but I would comment on some of the biology that underlies that statement. 

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Where Things Stand: Trump Just Wants His Own Mini-Me

This is your TPM evening briefing.

When Donald Trump looks at Dr. Oz, he sees himself.

(He probably sees his own reflection in the glint in everyone’s eye, but …)

Mehmet Oz is super close to transforming into his highest self as a Trump mini-me — he’s already got the celeb status, he’s a reality TV host with no business being in politics, he’s just as bombastic in his MAGA beliefs as the ex-president. But he’s missing one key ingredient that Trump is already subtly calling him out for.

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TPM LIVE Discussions

Join us for our first virtual event of the year!

On May 26 at 1 p.m. EDT, TPM’s Kate Riga will be hosting a virtual panel discussion with experts and practitioners on the reality of a post-Roe world. What can we expect when the Supreme Court rules, and in the days after? How did we get here, and what does this mean for civil liberties broadly? How will this affect the day-to-day lives of Americans state by state? Join us as we parse out answers. The event is free. Register here.

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Early Voting is for Cucks, Say Trumpers

You can see some of the headlines from last night’s primaries here on the front page of TPM. I wanted to share a couple other general observations.

To me the most striking thing about last night was how much same-day voting, as opposed to early or mail-in voting, has become a central feature of partisan identity for Trumpy Republicans. If you’re for Trump, you vote in person on Election Day. The other stuff is all suspect. The fairly unique dynamics of the 2020 election and its Big Lie aftermath have ossified into doctrines.

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The Josh marshall podcast

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Ep. 224: Primary Night

Josh and Kate discuss the major takeaways after a night of high-profile primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and elsewhere across the country.

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