The Gathering Storm Of Trump 2.0 Is Upon Us

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

It’s Coming

The news will slow a bit this week as we celebrate Thanksgiving, but we are only weeks away from the beginning of the 2024 GOP presidential primary, which looks assured of anointing Donald Trump as his party’s standard bearer yet again.

You can hear his rising fascist rhetoric, the roar of his crowd when he calls for retribution against his perceived enemies, and his own exuberance as he casts aside any hint of restraint in favor of the most toxic attacks.

The upcoming primaries are heightening tensions, concentrating the calls for violence, and distilling Trumpism into its most corrosive form.

There’s no one defining story from the weekend, but you’ll see in the mix of news items below the dire stakes.

Judge Rules Trump Engaged In Insurrection, But …

A Colorado state judge ruled that Donald Trump may stay on the 2024 ballot, rebuffing efforts to disqualify him under the Constitution’s Disqualification Clause. But in doing so, she found that Trump had engaged in insurrection.

The judge read the Disqualification Clause as not applying to the presidency for two reasons: (i) The president is not an “officer of the United States,” as the clause requires; and (ii) The presidential oath of office only promises to “preserve, protect and defend” the Constitution, not “support” it, in the language of the clause.

As I hope is obvious, those are very technical, perhaps even cramped, readings of the Disqualification Clause that will give appeals court plenty to chew on.

Trump Loses Bid To Distance Himself From Jan. 6 Attack

In a feeble effort to try to disentangle his indictment over his 2020 election subversion effort from its most incendiary element, Donald Trump recently asked Judge Chutkan to strike those parts of the indictment which tied him to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Chutkan denied that request late last week in a brief, muted three-page order that said Trump failed to carry his burden.

Chutkan took only one light, parenthetical jab at Trump in the order: “Defendant’s sixteen-page Reply In Support of the Motion, despite making numerous inflammatory and unsupported accusations of its own … (“President Biden directed the Department of Justice to prosecute his leading opponent for the presidency through a calculated leak to the New York Times.”), devotes only a single paragraph to the prejudice requirement.”

Warning Warning Warning

Trump continues to engage in rhetoric like this:

The Danger Of Forgetting

Brian Beutler:

Democrats might lose this twilight battle to drive Trump out of the body politic, and if they do, they’ll scour the devastation for the governing failure or political error that did them in. Was it inflation? Was it “wokeism”? Was it Biden’s age? But if it happened today, my money would be on this explanation: Their choices and emphases allowed the human process of forgetting to proceed as normal. And that in turn has allowed Trump to gain advantage, or narrow his disadvantage, on things like temperament and fitness for office that should be his defining liabilities. 

Appeals Court Hears Trump Gag Order

The DC Court of Appeals has oral arguments scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET today on the limited gag order imposed on Donald Trump by U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan in the Jan. 6 criminal case.

Fani Willis Seeks August 2024 Trial Date

Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis has formally asked the judge overseeing the sprawling RICO case to set the trial to begin in August 2024. She had already said that she expected the trial to drag into 2025.

Neo-Nazis March In Madison

A small group of neo-Nazis marched between the University of Wisconsin and the state capitol, stopping for a time in front of a local synagogue.

Global Right Scores Another Win

Usually comparisons of foreign leaders to America presidents are inapt and unenlightening, but when I was in Argentina earlier, this year like-minded Argentinians were in despair (a familiar emotion there) over the potential of electing their own Donald Trump in the form of Javier Milei. The similarities are striking, and Milei has now won the presidency.

The Abortion Fight Is Never Truly Over

Republican state officials in Ohio are already trying to find ways to undermine and weaken the newly passed constitutional amendment enshrining abortion rights.

Welp …

A pastor who coordinates “faith-based” outreach for the Philadelphia chapter of Moms for Liberty is a registered sex offender.

Rosalynn Carter, 1927-2023

PLAINS, GA – JUNE 2: Former First Lady Rosalynn Carter sits in a rocking chair that her husband, former President Jimmy Carter, had built in his home work shop. Mrs. Carter is posing for a portrait in her back yard to promote her new autobiographical book, “First Lady From Plains”, on April 3, 1984 at the Carter home in Plains, GA. (Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The former first lady died Sunday afternoon at age 96, thus ending her remarkable 77-year marriage to Jimmy Carter. When a long-lived marriage like theirs comes to an end, I have the urge to congratulate the surviving spouse on their accomplishment. It never seems quite appropriate to do so in the midst of loss and grief, but it is achievement in its own right, one to be celebrated and admired.

Back in 2002, Jimmy Carter offered a glimpse of the gratitude it takes to make a marriage like theirs work:

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Well, Kinda Quite a Story

AI and who runs the company-cum-non-profit OpenAI is far from much that concerns TPM. But I felt I had to return at least once to the topic of the previous post. Because it did turn out to be “quite a story” but a story of a totally different sort than I’d imagined. The abruptness of CEO Sam Altman’s ouster, the potential loss to investors of tens of billions of dollars and the apparent claims of malfeasance in the company’s announcement made it seem certain that some vast scale of wrongdoing must be at the heart of the story. But now it doesn’t seem like that was the case at all. We still don’t know quite what happened or why. But the weight of evidence now points to some kind of non-wrongdoing-based spat between Altman and certain members of the board. Within a day, the board was trying to get Altman to come back and be CEO again. They’re currently negotiating to see if they can get him to come back. But he may choose to just start his own company with another employee who was canned.

Continue reading “Well, Kinda Quite a Story”

Jury Convictions Of Bannon And Navarro May Energize Lawmakers’ Ability To Hold Powerful People Accountable

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

On Jan. 25, 2024, Peter Navarro is scheduled to be sentenced – perhaps to prison – after his swift conviction by a jury on contempt of Congress charges. He has joined Steve Bannon as the first defendants in decades to be held criminally liable by the U.S. Department of Justice for refusing to provide information in response to congressional subpoenas.

Continue reading “Jury Convictions Of Bannon And Navarro May Energize Lawmakers’ Ability To Hold Powerful People Accountable”

The Fight For Abortion Access In Ohio Isn’t Over

While many in the state were still sweeping up the metaphorical confetti from a red-letter win on protecting abortion rights, Ohio Republicans immediately began insisting that the amendment’s passage was illegitimate. 

Continue reading “The Fight For Abortion Access In Ohio Isn’t Over”

Sounds Like There’s Quite a Story Here

You’ve probably seen the news that Open AI, which created ChatGPT, has fired CEO Sam Altman because the board concluded he was “not consistently candid in his communications with the board.” Yikes. He was sacked as CEO and removed from the board. I come at this with no knowledge of the inner workings of the company or Altman. But when a board out of the blue fires a CEO at the helm of a company that has skyrocketed to around $80 billion in value and is at center of huge bets about future economic gains across the economy you have to assume that something really, really bad must have happened.

Penny Stock George

It may not get a lot of attention. In a way it doesn’t matter since I don’t think anyone cares that George Santos going to do serious time in prison. But in addition to the mistake he made not resigning soon after the original New York Times report last December, he made another big mistake staying in office until this week’s House Ethics report was released. Resignation from office is always a big chit in plea negotiations. There are both good public policy reasons for this (corrupt pols should be removed from office) and it appeals to prosecutors’ inherent desire for a ‘win’. Regardless of the motivation, it’s something a politician can agree to give up and get something in return.

Now it’s too late – even if in theory Santos cut a deal today ahead of getting expelled. It’s like he held on to a hot shot stock portfolio until it dropped down to penny stock levels. It’s now extremely likely he’ll be expelled from office at the end of this month. Prosecutors know that. Resigning in the face of near certain expulsion isn’t worth anything.

Israel’s Politics of Denial

As I’ve engaged with TPM Readers in response to yesterday’s Backchannel post and other recent posts on the same topic, I’ve been thinking again of the ‘big picture’ behind everything that is happening right now in Israel-Palestine. When I wrote about Students for Justice in Palestine a few days ago, I noted that that post was really more about North America than the Middle East. Activism frequently, although perhaps not always, tends to be more ideological at a distance than it is on the ground. People on the ground need to make practical and daily decision about living their lives. But as we watch this chaos and carnage and suffering unfolding from a distance, what remains the case is whatever Israel is trying to accomplish militarily, it will not amount to much if it isn’t followed by some political settlement. “Settlement” in this context probably sets up expectations too big and immediate, so much that it becomes self-defeating. So let’s say the beginnings of one. Because Israeli politics for the last fifteen years at least has been based on denial.

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Aileen Cannon Makes A MAL Trial Before Election Day Nearly Impossible

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Hair On Fire Time

With this simple docket entry, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon all but assured that the trial of Donald Trump in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case will not happen until after the 2024 election:

The docket entry is not a clarion call by any means. It’s technical and legalistic. A perfect way to bury the reality of acceding to Trump’s delay strategy. But the consensus among CIPA experts and legal observers is that this is best evidence yet that Cannon is slow-rolling the case, to Trump’s benefit.

What happened? A couple of days ago, Special Counsel Jack Smith asked Cannon to set a key deadline in December for Trump to provide notice of which classified materials he wants to use at trial. Without waiting for Trump to respond, Cannon nixed the idea. Cannon’s docket entry says she won’t even consider setting this and other important deadlines until a hearing on March 1, 2024. That’s not a feasible schedule for a May 2024 trial date.

The only slight caveat I would add here is that it’s conceivable that while the current May 2024 trial date is out the window, something could be scheduled later in 2024, before the election. But that would be very difficult practically with this latest move by Cannon, even if she were competent and well-intentioned, both of which are highly in doubt at this point.

The reactions were scorching:

Harry Litman: “Judge Cannon’s paperless order denying without explanation DOJ’s uber-reasonable request to set a CIPA section 5 hearing comes mighty close to guaranteeing Trump what he wants: a trial post Nov 2024.”

Brandon Van Grack: “Court won’t even consider scheduling a Sec. 5 hearing until March. Clear indication May trial date wont happen. … Refusal to schedule hearing shows the Court is not going to move with urgency.”

Hugo Lowell: “In short: Trump classified docs case is almost certainly not going to trial in May — in fact, we are probably now several months behind that schedule”

Andrew Weissmann: “Judge Cannon’s bias is showing over and over again. Smith has to be weighing whether, when, and how to seek her reversal by the Ct of Appeals and her removal.”

I expect many of you will now expect Smith to follow through as Weissmann suggests above: get Cannon recused and/or appeal her refusal to keep the trial on track. I’m not an expert in CIPA or criminal or appellate procedure, but it sure looks like Cannon has done this in a way that will make appealing it virtually impossible at this stage. In short, we may be stuck with Cannon and these awful, compromised decisions.

Another Trump Gag Order Lifted

An appeals court judge temporarily lifted the gag order imposed on lawyers and parties in the NY fraud trial against Donald Trump and his business empire – and Trump immediately resumed public attacks on the judge’s law clerk. The pause returns things to the status quo while the appeals court considers Trump’s appeal of the gag order.

The Stakes

Dahlia Lithwick: Suppose They Threw a Cage Match Between Fascism and Democracy and Nobody Cared

All George Santos All The Time

So much to dig into in the House Ethics Committee report on Rep. George Santos (R-NY), whose fabulism and alleged bad acts were even more extensive – and hilariously bad – than we previously know.

But before I surrender the floor to the TPMers who have been covering Santos, here are the main takeaways:

  • Santos won’t run again. This surprised me a bit because I was expecting him to hold on to this bargaining chip to work out a possible plea deal with prosecutors, though I suppose his resignation sometime before January 2025 could still be a tradeoff in any kind of deal.
  • Santos may yet be expelled by the House. A dozen or so GOP members who previously opposed expelling Santos flipped on Thursday. The tea-leaf reading suggests expulsion could actually be in play when the House returns in December, despite the bind Republicans are in with their narrow four-seat majority.

Okay, now for the good stuff:

  • TPM’s Where Things Stand: “It’s as if Santos were a planetary convergence of political scandal, a once-in-a-lifetime alignment of grifting, lying, and adopting a perpetually scandalized tone in response to it all.”
  • TPM: Bombshells From Santos Report Include Imaginary Maserati, Spending Sprees On Casinos, ‘Botox’ And OnlyFans
  • TPM: We Talked To George Santos’ ‘Botox’ Doctor And Got Skincare Advice For The Scandal Spotlight

Pelosi Attacker Convicted

A jury deliberated for about eight hours before finding David DePape guilty of attempted kidnapping of a federal official and assault on the immediate family member of a federal official in last year’s attack on then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband in their San Francisco home.

Professor Charged In Death Of Jewish Protestor In California

A 50-year-old professor at Moorpark College was arrested on a charge of involuntary manslaughter and held on a $1 million bail in the death of a 69-year-old Jewish protestor after a Nov. 5 altercation.

Senate Judiciary Dems Fizzle On SCOTUS Reform

TPM’s Kate Riga: Senate Democrats Punt On Supreme Court Oversight In Favor Of Early Vacation

Great Piece

The WaPo goes deep on the historical and structural biases that have given rural white people wildly disproportionate representation in the U.S. Senate.

2024 Ephemera

  • NYT: Democrats plan to spend big to whittle away Republican supermajorities in the state legislatures of Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and Wisconsin.
  • WaPo/Monmouth poll of NH GOP primary: Trump 46%, Haley 18%, Christie 11%, Ramaswamy 8%, DeSantis 7%
  • Rep. Daniel Kildee (D-MI) will not seek reelection in 2024.

Hate To See It

Elon Musk’s embrace of anti-Semitism is causing problems for Twitter/X:

  • NYT: X Races to Contain Damage After Elon Musk Endorses Antisemitic Post
  • WaPo: IBM pulls ads from X as Musk amplifies antisemitism

You Wanna Date Me, Fight Me, Bite Me, Or Shoot Me?

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Where Things Stand: The George Santos Edition

Even in the deep and murky annals of congressional corruption, there’s no one quite like Rep. George Santos (R-NY). Who else, after all, could hope to match the sheer mendacity or the brazenness of his alleged scams? 

Continue reading “Where Things Stand: The George Santos Edition”

We Talked To George Santos’ ‘Botox’ Doctor And Got Skincare Advice For The Scandal Spotlight

With a pile of criminal charges, a scathing House Ethics Committee report, and mounting calls for his expulsion, Rep. George Santos (R-NY) has a lot to worry about. However, amid all of the drama that has blown up since his election last year, at least the embattled lawmaker has taken care of his aesthetic concerns.

Continue reading “We Talked To George Santos’ ‘Botox’ Doctor And Got Skincare Advice For The Scandal Spotlight”