This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis.
There’s already ample evidence that the presidential campaign Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis largely outsourced to a super PAC was among the worst in history. But wait, there’s more! DeSantis’ super-PAC games may well have unleashed federal campaign finance’s nightmare scenario.
Continue reading “DeSantis’ Lackluster Campaign Unleashed Campaign Finance’s Nightmare Scenario”Texas Republicans have been using the Supreme Court’s decision this week — to allow federal officials to cut through Texas’ razor wire that is currently blocking border patrol agents from accessing parts of the U.S.-Mexico border — to fantasize about a new “civil war.” They’ve also repeatedly characterized immigration as an “invasion” — one of their few electoral talking points heading into the 2024 elections, and a claim that Texas hopes to deploy as a legal argument in court.
Continue reading “Abbott Doubles Down On ‘Invasion’ Rhetoric That Sidesteps Specifics”Let’s come back to last night’s result. We’ve now had two contests on the Republican side. Donald Trump won 51% of the vote in Iowa (on the GOP side it’s not actually a caucus, just a straight vote) and 54% in New Hampshire. These are at best a thin showing for a former president who remains head of his party. David Kurtz is right that it’s hard to know just what the standard should be when the whole situation is so unprecedented and absurd. The rule in modern American politics is that when you lose a presidential election your career in politics is over. Add to that trying to overthrow the government and facing about a hundred felony indictments and you’d think that would be enough. But that’s obviously not the case. This is the world we’re living in.
Continue reading “Swagger and Menace: The Story of Mr. 50%”The first Winter Olympic Games were held between January 25 and February 5, 1924, in the French town of Chamonix. Competitors from 16 countries convened to show their strengths in events including speed skating, ice hockey, figure skating, ski jumping, and bobsleigh.
While the Republican primary got the most attention last night, there was a Democratic contest too.
So let’s look at those results.
President Biden didn’t campaign in the state because New Hampshire refused to abide by the DNC’s new primary calendar which put South Carolina and Nevada at the front of the nomination line. His name didn’t appear on the ballot either. He appears on track to get a bit over 65% of the vote as a write-in. He’s likely one of the few and possibly only presidential candidate ever to win a primary as a write-in.
Continue reading “There Was A Second Race in New Hampshire Last Night”A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
While last night’s coverage of New Hampshire reinforced that political journalism is not up to the task of covering the 2024 election, I should confess that I have no real idea how to cover a presidential campaign where the presumptive major party nominee is a former president who auto-couped, faces criminal indictments in four jurisdictions, promises to abuse the powers of the office he seeks to exact retribution against his perceived enemies, has no real policy interests or platform, and is bent on strongman rule if re-elected.
This is uncharted territory, and the usual campaign and election coverage is not suited to navigating it, fails to appreciate the seriousness of the moment, reinforces and celebrates Trump’s worst tendencies, and leaves voters ill-informed and under the illusion that this is somehow all normal.
Parsing Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire is absurdism. As my colleague Josh Marshall put it yesterday: “We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.” But political journalists held a goddamned hoedown last night on the head of that imaginary pin.
So let me just run through a quick list of things that made Trump’s victory in New Hampshire last night extraordinary:
Those are just the purely political metrics. They don’t include the criminal charges for couping, mishandling classified documents, obstruction of justice, and cheating to win in 2016 by covering up his dalliance with a porn star. Good god.
On top of all of that, the criminal justice system is struggling mightily to hold Trump to account for the rule of law before the election. Its inability to respond to the current moment — even when its own very existence is potentially at stake — is something future generations will find bewildering. Let the record show that the current generation is bewildered, too.
Whatever Haley does in the short term, we’re in general election mode now. In some ways that is clarifying. It sharpens the mind on the choices before us. It eliminates clutter and sideshows. But political journalism is not ready for this. Neither is our court system. It’s going to be a long, bumpy, painful road to November.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) leaves all his dignity on the field:
I’d be a little surprised if Nikki Haley sticks around to take it on the chin in her home state on Feb. 24. She’s trailing badly in the polls, and the pressure on her to drop out will only increase over the next month. To-wit:
Emphasis mine:
The Truce, from journalists Hunter Walker (of Talking Points Memo) and Luppe B. Luppen, explores the major fault lines that define Democratic politics today and asks big questions about the future of the party. An engrossing page-turner, The Truce grapples with the dangers that threaten American democracy and the complicated cast of characters who are trying to save it.
The full D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals declined to rehear Donald Trump’s appeal of the gag order imposed on him in the Jan. 6 case.
With New York Attorney General Letitia James seeking to ban Donald Trump for life from the New York real estate industry, she seized on a Second Circuit Court of Appeals ruling yesterday upholding a similar ban she won against Martin Shkreli in the pharmaceutical industry.
James immediately informed the judge in Trump’s civil trial of the ruling, which could be a factor as he considers his verdict in the just-finished trial, which is expected by the end of January.
A quirky man from a different time. A proud anachronism. A reminder of what radio and TV could offer before it was polished to an homogenous sheen:
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The Donald Trump show continues in New Hampshire after the Associated Press called the primary for him as soon as polls closed.
The state, with its high number of unaffiliated voters, independent streak and high level of educational attainment, gave Nikki Haley her best shot at making Trump’s campaign wobble and giving herself a boost of momentum. That is not developing, as Trump is headed for a comfortable margin of victory.
Haley gave a victory-esque speech early — “we got close to half the vote” — and vowed to stay in the race. She cast her sights on to South Carolina — where Trump is currently walloping her by nearly 40 points.
Trump gave a very angry speech, fixated on Haley’s, and issued a vaguely ominous threat that Haley would come under investigation for unidentified reasons (and that DeSantis would have too, if he hadn’t dropped out).
Let’s call this a split decision. Not terrible for Trump. But definitely not great either. Losing would have been terrible. (Terrible on the way to winning the nomination.) At the moment Trump is beating Haley by about 54% to 45%, which isn’t a lot better. That margin may go up two or three points. As we knew last night and a year ago last night, Trump is absolutely going to be the nominee. But having a candidate who is basically no more than a stand-in for opposition to Trump pulling upwards of 50% is definitely suboptimal for him, to put it mildly.
Earlier today I said that Haley’s threshold was somewhere between 35% and 40%. She’s coming in at 45%. That’s solid.
Watching Trump speak tonight I got the sense that he was one of the few people watching the results tonight who realized this was kind of embarrassing for him.
Continue reading “That’s a Wrap, And Not a Bad One”Some House Republicans are using yesterday’s Supreme Court decision, which allowed federal officials to cut through the razor wire Texas had installed at the border, as a rallying cry, urging Texas Republicans to “stand their ground” and elevating talk of “civil war.”
Continue reading “House Republicans Use SCOTUS Texas Ruling To Salivate Over ‘Civil War’”Tonight is the night of the first and very likely the last meaningful primary of the 2024 primary calendar. Polls suggest a similar outcome to what we saw last week in Iowa: a bare majority for Trump, which in a normal contest would be a big win but is less clearly so when the candidate is the party leader and de facto incumbent. The difference is that unlike in Iowa where most of the remaining vote was split between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, now most will go to Haley.
People will be talking all day about just where we should place the thresholds over which Haley overperforms and keeps some semblance of a faux primary campaign going or Trump does the same and gets everyone to finally admit that this thing is completely absolutely done.
I’d put the number for Haley somewhere between 35% and 40%. For Trump, maybe if he goes over 60%. The truth is I have no idea. By any reasonable calculus, if she can’t win in New Hampshire she can’t win anywhere. And really … it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.
Continue reading “What’s the Best Outcome Tonight? Let’s Discuss.”
