Rogue Supreme Court Abandons Democracy In Her Hour Of Greatest Need

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‘Because We Destroyed Our Democracy On Our Own’

For long moments during yesterday’s Supreme Court oral argument on presidential immunity in Trump v. United States, the clock stopped and the outside world ceased to be and all I was left with was the blood rushing in my ears and a sinking feeling in my stomach.

When Justice Samuel Alito, the most villainous political figure in my lifetime, asserted without any irony that prosecuting a president for refusing to relinquish power after losing an election might encourage future presidents to hold on even more firmly to their office, any remaining optimism I could muster about American democracy and its institutional ability to defend itself against tyranny drained away.

I don’t say that lightly or for effect, and I don’t want to make my personal feelings the point here. But when I woke up this morning and saw the news coverage writ large, it didn’t reflect what happened yesterday. We slid over the edge of a cliff, and we won’t stop now until we hit bottom.

For the second time this year, the Supreme Court encountered a Jan. 6 case and barely talked about Jan. 6, which would be amazing under any circumstance but is astounding considering the court’s own proximity to the riot. The auto-coup attempt happened right across the street from the Supreme Court building. As TPM first reported and was later confirmed by an IG report, the planners of the Jan. 6 Ellipse rally had also planned a second culminating rally for that afternoon on the steps of the Supreme Court itself. The only reason it didn’t happen was that the growing riot at the Capitol blocked access to the Supreme Court. As long as the guillotine falls on another’s neck, I suppose?

As I’ve said here many times, the legal system can’t seem to appreciate the existential threat to itself that Trump and the MAGA movement represent. The hypotheticals batted around yesterday only confirmed that. Whether it was bribery or political assassinations or even another coup, Trump argued that he would be immune from criminal prosecution unless and until he was impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate.

But those and other hypotheticals presupposed for no obvious reason that there would still be a Congress around to impeach him and a court system to try him. Why would he tolerate an insolent Congress and a meddlesome Supreme Court in the first place? And if he had been so short-sighted as to leave the other two branches intact, why would a lawless president immune from criminal prosecution for official acts leave the White House after an impeachment conviction? Who’s gonna make him leave? Who’s gonna stop him? Certainly not this Supreme Court, we learned yesterday.

While the ultimate ruling in this case may soften some of the worst of what the justices said yesterday, even a “compromise” decision that allows the Jan. 6 trial of Trump to go forward is likely to lead to considerable delay – setting up the preposterous scenario in which the president who engaged in sedition against the United States gets to run for the office again before he is ever prosecuted for his first coup.

The conservative justices had an opportunity to rally to the defense of democracy, to gird the system against further attack, to righteously defend the rule of law, and to protect its own prerogatives and powers against a wannabe tyrant who is counting on them to be his supplicants. They could have drawn a sharp line. They could have summoned indignation and outrage. They could have overlooked their partisan priors in favor of principle – or more cravenly in favor of self-preservation. With the possible and limited exception of Justice Amy Coney Barrett, they did none of that.

They failed in the worst possible way at the most crucial time.

The Best Of The Best

No one captured my experience of the day yesterday as well as Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern:

For three long years, Supreme Court watchers mollified themselves (and others) with vague promises that when the rubber hit the road, even the ultraconservative Federalist Society justices of the Roberts court would put democracy before party whenever they were finally confronted with the legal effort to hold Donald Trump accountable for Jan. 6. …

On Thursday, during oral arguments in Trump v. United States, the Republican-appointed justices shattered those illusions. This was the case we had been waiting for, and all was made clear—brutally so. These justices donned the attitude of cynical partisans, repeatedly lending legitimacy to the former president’s outrageous claims of immunity from criminal prosecution. To at least five of the conservatives, the real threat to democracy wasn’t Trump’s attempt to overturn the election—but the Justice Department’s efforts to prosecute him for the act

The Irrepressible Ketanji Brown Jackson

So smart, so confident, and so direct. I came out of my seat when she asked Trump’s attorney: “What was up with the pardon for President Nixon? If everybody thought that presidents couldn’t be prosecuted, then what was that about?” What was up indeed.

Quote Of The Day

In the end, if it fails completely, it’s because we destroyed our democracy on our own, isn’t it?

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, during oral argument in Trump v. United States

Have A Cute Weekend!

Let’s not end the week on a glum note:

Quick story: When my first child was born, I had a 100-pound German Shepherd who I was super concerned about bringing a baby home to. So I read all the things about how to socialize a GSD to the new member of the pack: let him smell her a lot, put one of her spit-up rags in his crate, give him time to adjust. 

That first week I was pretty on edge, but then my mom came to visit her first grandchild. When she arrived, I was in my study with the baby asleep on my chest. My mom made a beeline for the baby – but when she got to the doorway, the GSD blocked her path.

She tried to sidestep him. He countered. She tried to push by him. He wouldn’t budge. He wasn’t mean about it, but he wasn’t nice either. And then I realized: HE WAS NOT GOING TO LET HER ANYWHERE NEAR THAT BABY. I called him off, and he reluctantly let my mom through.

In that moment, the baby was confirmed as part of the pack (and to my mother’s chagrin she was not). From then on, I relaxed about the dog and the baby, and we never had a problem. 

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The Court is Corrupt. Say It With Me.

I was watching cable news this afternoon at the gym. And I saw one of those examples of what has now become a Trump/Roberts Court-era set piece, where principled and very smart lawyers and/or legal academics have to say, I guess I was a chump.

Sure the Roberts Court is partisan, I thought. But there’s a threshold level belief in the rule of law. I’m not trying to make hay out of others’ mistakes. My guiding heuristic has been that the Roberts Court, especially in its post-2017 iteration is thoroughly corrupt and will generally do whatever is in the interests of the GOP so long as it doesn’t put too big a dent in the Court’s own perceived legitimacy and elite social standing. Based on this standard I assumed the Court would settle for delaying Trump’s trial until the Fall. It seems now that they’re likely to kick it back to the trial Court for further fact-finding and thus the case itself well into 2025.

Fair enough.

Continue reading “The Court is Corrupt. Say It With Me.”

Trump Saves Most Merciless Humiliation For Bill Barr

Donald Trump needs a good grudge like the rest of us need air. But from time to time, those who wrong him debase themselves and shred their own dignity so thoroughly to get back in his good graces that he makes an exception. Lindsey Graham is a good example. So is Ted Cruz.

Continue reading “Trump Saves Most Merciless Humiliation For Bill Barr”

Trump Will Be Happy With Supreme Court Arguments On Immunity

The Supreme Court conservatives seemed to solidify around a middle-ground position on Donald Trump’s claims of absolute presidential immunity Thursday, a win by another name for the former president as it would add months of delay to the Jan. 6 case.

Continue reading “Trump Will Be Happy With Supreme Court Arguments On Immunity”

Conservative Justices Appear Poised To At Least Limit Scope Of Jan. 6 Case Against Trump

The Supreme Court heard Donald Trump’s attempt to knock the legs out from under Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 case on Thursday. The arguments come over four months after Smith initially asked the justices to decide whether Trump could claim sweeping immunity to protect him from prosecution related to the insurrection.

The conservative justices at times at least appeared skeptical of the Trump team argument that the former president has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution, but were primarily concerned about the chilling effect a ruling on the matter might have on future presidents.

The arguments began at 10 a.m. ET.

Catch up on our live coverage below:

Our Long National RCP Nightmare Is Over

For most of this election season so far, FiveThirtyEight hasn’t surfaced its own presidential race average. Compiling these averages in a sophisticated and honest way is actually kind of complicated. (They explain their methodology here.) We used to play in this space with PollTracker. So I know from experience. For me it’s not that I put so much weight on the specific number. It’s just a simpler way of visualizing the trend over time.

Well, now they’ve finally rolled theirs out. So I don’t have to be so reliant on RealClearPolitics, which has both a clumsy methodology and goes to comical length to add or not add polls to juice their favored candidate. All that said, the absolute averages as of today as remarkably similar. Trump up .4% on FiveThirtyEight and .3% on RCP. This reminds us of some of the ironies and … how can I say it, melancholy and ennui of complexity. The FiveThirtyEight model is HUGELY complex and sophisticated. It factors in all sorts of different variables. It incorporates findings from individual states into the national averages and vice versa. And yet for all this statistical leg work the averages as of this moment are essentially identical.

Continue reading “Our Long National RCP Nightmare Is Over”

The Man Behind The Jan. 6 ‘Pence Card’ Memo Is Now Pushing ‘The Mother Of All Twitter Files’

A key player in the push to overturn the 2020 presidential election now has set his sights on Elon Musk. 

Ivan Raiklin, a former Green Beret and associate of retired Gen. Michael Flynn, is currently fixated on a new scheme: to have Musk use his position as CEO of the social media company X, formerly known as Twitter, to publish private messages from the “Deep State.” In various appearances on right-wing broadcasts and events, Raiklin has suggested this would expose a plot against former President Trump and others.  

Raiklin has described his vision as a natural extension of the “Twitter Files” project Musk launched in late 2022 when, shortly after taking over the social media company, the mogul released some of its internal documents to a group of media figures including Bari Weiss, Michael Shellenberger, and Matt Taibbi. The underwhelming exposé merely highlighted conversations among Twitter’s former members of management as they made admittedly fraught decisions about how to handle a New York Post story on Hunter Biden’s hacked laptop. Experts largely dismissed the project as highlighting routine content moderation. Musk and his team eventually descended into infighting

Inspired by Musk’s lackluster 2022 project, Raiklin has prepared a document he has dubbed the “Deep State Target List,” identifying over 350 people and institutions whose direct messages he wants Musk to publicize. 

One of the venues where Raiklin outlined his plan was a Vegas conference hosted by the far- right ​​Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association earlier this month. Videos posted by Raiklin show him detailing the scheme in a Q&A session where he wondered if the assembled law enforcement agents might be willing to go “to the maximum level” to punish the targets on his list for unspecified crimes. 

“What if, hypothetically, I communicated with Michael Shellenberger and Matt Taibbi and convinced them to get Elon Musk to do what’s known as the ‘Mother of all Twitter Files’ where he releases the direct messages for the lifetime of the account of all the federal government actors previous and current that have weaponized against all of us citizens throughout the entire country?” Raiklin asked.

Raiklin has published his full “Target list” of figures whose direct messages and geolocation data he wants exposed on the encrypted app Telegram. The hundreds of names include federal officials ranging from former President Barack Obama to Trump’s first chief of staff, Reince Priebus. Raiklin’s targets also include members of the media and witnesses in various investigations into Trump. 

Raiklin is no stranger to intense conspiracy theories or explosive documents. In the leadup to the 2020 presidential race, he and other intelligence veterans associated with Flynn were vocal promoters of Trump’s baseless allegations that fraud played a part in his election defeat. Raiklin was also the author of a memo titled “Operation Pence Card” that detailed a plan to have the former vice president block the electoral certification of Trump’s loss. That document was shared by Trump in December 2020 as his legal team coalesced around a similar plan, which served as the basis for their efforts to have the election results officially overturned on January 6, 2021. 

The effort to obtain DMs is also not the first time Raiklin has allegedly sought personal material as part of a political pressure campaign. According to a Republican whistleblower, Raiklin was involved in a plot to obtain negative information about Republican members of Congress as Flynn and other allies  pushed them to back baseless audits of the 2020 race. 

Raiklin did not respond directly to a request for comment. However, on Telegram, he posted TPM’s message and encouraged followers to target this reporter for an investigation. 

“Can y’all do a deep dive on who this guy is before I consider responding? Would like to know all of his biases, relationships and IQ first,” Raiklin wrote. “DM me your findings of any elicit activity by him, the org he works for, neighbors, friends and family.”

Raiklin’s new “Deep State” list is color coded by category and begins with people identified as being involved in the “unmasking” of Flynn as participating in a phone call with a Russian diplomat. Revelations Flynn lied about that contact — including to former Vice President Mike Pence — led to his ouster as Trump’s first national security adviser. Raiklin’s list also includes figures involved in various investigations into Trump and supposed “censorship” at Twitter. 

TPM spoke to one person identified on the list who said they were concerned about targeted harassment. The list includes people who have received threats in conjunction with the various conspiracy theories promoted by Trump and his allies. It also questionably links some figures to events such as the pandemic. For these reasons — and the fact Raiklin has explicitly described it as a “target” document — we will not be identifying individual figures on the list, outside of the aforementioned public figures. 

Needless to say, it’s a far reaching list of people and institutions that Raiklin has baselessly suggested are involved in a murky series of vaguely defined high crimes. Raiklin is currently involved in the nationwide tour for Flynn’s documentary about himself. Screenings for the movie include a presentation of what Raiklin has dubbed a “Deep State Wall,” an actual, physical wall plastered with paper printouts connected with string. In a filmed tour of the display earlier this month, Raiklin boasted that “each one of these sections is easily one to two hours discussion” and suggested it exposes the supposed links in a “Deep State” plot to target Trump and his “non-establishment” allies, namely Flynn. 

“Elon Musk, if you’re listening in, please release the DMs of every single person on this wall. Every one,” Raiklin said. 

Raiklin’s tour also provided some insight into his focus on Pence. He suggested the former vice president had been “foisted” on Trump by establishment Republicans at a moment when Flynn was being considered for the post. 

The idea that Musk, one of the richest men in the world, would engage with this might seem far fetched. However, particularly since taking over Twitter in 2022, the entrepreneur has extensively promoted far-right rhetoric and conspiracy theories. And the “Twitter Files” project showed Musk’s willingness to release private correspondence obtained through his role at the company for political ends. The publication of those private messages and documents reportedly led to threats against the subjects of the stories.

Along with repeatedly invoking Musk, Raiklin has sent social media messages to Taibbi and Shellenberger, two of the reporters who worked on the “Twitter Files” project. For his part, Shellenberger told TPM via email that he had never heard of Raiklin. After we explained in further detail — including sharing links to posts where Raiklin had named him and cited his work specifically — Shellenberger suggested he did not even understand how he might have inspired the “Deep State” list.

“How does this involve me, exactly?” he asked. 

Taibbi did not respond to a request for comment. 

TPM also sent a message to Twitter’s press email, which, at one point during Musk’s tenure, was answering all requests with poop emojis. We received a response that said, “Busy now, please check back later.”

Musk did not respond to a request for comment sent to him directly on Wednesday. He spent the afternoon sharing Shellenberger’s work on the site he has named “X.” And, while he hasn’t engaged with Raiklin’s endeavor, Musk made clear he is eager to go after some of  the media institutions mentioned in Raiklin’s “Deep State” list. 

“This graph illustrates the woke mind virus taking over legacy media,” Musk declared on Wednesday alongside a random chart that purported to show an increase in coverage of “racism” at four major newspapers. “Infection rate almost 100%. But now it will die.”

Raiklin’s dream of getting Musk, Shellenberger, and Taibbi to take on his target list may just be a feverish fantasy, but it is a sign of something far more real and consequential. The endeavor is a stark example of how some of the people who were involved in the efforts to overturn the last election are continuing to promote increasingly militant conspiracy theories to their audiences ahead of the next one. 

In February, Raiklin went on the “Infowars” broadcast hosted by Alex Jones, who was heavily involved in the protests against Trump’s 2020 loss that turned violent on January 6. The pair spun a new narrative with echoes of QAnon that suggested Raiklin’s “Twitter files” plan was the only way to stop Trump from being killed. 

“The next move is assassination,” Jones declared in between dramatic operatic music and shots of Raiklin’s list. 

“They’re going to stop him at all costs,” Raiklin said of Trump, adding, “The end of that continuum is a political assassination.”

Raiklin went on to suggest Trump’s enemies might “shut the internet down” and that Musk could use the “counter strategy” of releasing their private correspondence to “stop them in their tracks.” 

“This will be the Twitter files nuclear just bombshell … in exposing these scum,” Raiklin said. “They’re not going to survive that level of scrutiny.”

Along with showing how active the January 6 conspiracy theorists remain, Raiklin’s target list illustrates how Musk has emerged as an inspiration and focal point in these circles. At the close of their broadcast, Jones asked Raiklin for his “analysis” of the billionaire. Raiklin pointed to things Musk has posted on X before making a confident declaration. 

“He’s like us,” Raiklin said of Musk. “I think he’s cut from the same cloth.”