Trump And His Friends Seize On Arizona Voter Registration Error As Conspiracy Theory Fodder

Earlier this month, Maricopa County election officials detected an error in Arizona’s voter registration system, which has jeopardized tens of thousands of registered voters’ ability to vote full ballot in the upcoming election. 

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Lindsey Graham Helps Nebraska GOP Resurrect Effort To Screw Dems Out Of An Electoral College Vote

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is leading a delegation for Donald Trump to Nebraska, where the senator is making a last-ditch effort to convince a critical mass of the state’s Republican lawmakers to change how Nebraska awards Electoral College votes, a shift that could turn the state into a winner-takes-all situation.

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Ummm … What’s Going on In North Carolina?

Let me give you a brief update on a story out of North Carolina, or rather rumors out of North Carolina. Because it’s really nothing more than rumors. But it could be real and could be a pretty big deal. We’re told that CNN is about to publish a story that is likely to, or could, knock Lt Gov. Mark Robinson out of the governor’s race in North Carolina. That’s pretty stunning because Robinson is a freakshow candidate even in the broader menagerie of GOP freakshow candidates. Hunter Walker had an early jump on his freak flag in this story from a year and a half ago. That raises the question of what could possibly be so bad, so insane, outrageous or criminal that it would knock him out of the race. The rumors suggest something of a sexual nature. There already was a story a couple week ago claiming, over Robinson’s denials, that Robinson was a regular at porn-shop viewing booths in the ’90s and early 2000s. So what could it possibly be? And don’t forget that a major shakeup at the top of the ticket in North Carolina could conceivably impact the winner of the presidential election.

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Actual Springfield Ohio Story Is Pretty Different from What You’ve Heard

I continue to have what I guess I would call a mild confidence that not just the Trump campaign but some amount of the political press is missing the political valence of the situation in Springfield, Ohio — the point I alluded to in this post from yesterday. But I want to zoom in on one aspect of the story. Trump and Vance are obviously telling a really lurid and ugly story about half-savage outsiders being foisted on a town of hard-working Americans from the Heartland. But even a lot of the non-far-right coverage has operated on the assumption that either the federal government or some outside entity has essentially resettled a large community of refugees in this one city. But that’s not really what happened here at all. The influx of immigrants into the city is actually a direct result of economic redevelopment plans devised by local leaders, most of whom are Republicans.

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Yet More Polls

For reasons that are not altogether clear, a ton of polls came out overnight. Just in Pennsylvania alone, for example, I believe we have six new, decent-quality polls from just last night. We also have a few new national polls — Fox and NYT/Siena. I don’t know what appetite anyone has left for me doing deep-dive polling analysis of so many polls when, if you’re really that interested, you can see what the actual polling analysts say. (I have limited appetite to hear myself at this point.) I’d say the 30,000-foot takeaway is that they’re telling a pretty good story for Harris. We continue to see more evidence that Harris is consolidating real leads across the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and, yes … Pennsylvania. Of those six PA polls, three showed a tie. The other three showed leads of three, four and five points, respectively. Across these results you also see more signs of Harris consolidating or in some cases expanding on the 2020 Biden coalition, especially with “traditional” Dem constituencies. One detail I find interesting are the increasing signs that Republicans’ Electoral College advantage may be diminishing. As I said, if you don’t want to get into the nitty gritty, which may tell you less rather than more, the gist is that Harris seems to be consolidating a small but significant lead based on the Blue Wall states while remaining close or tied in the Southern tier states, where she may be better positioned in North Carolina than Georgia and possibly Arizona.

Trump-Vance Intentionally Blurs The Line Between Illegal And Legal Immigrants

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

No One Is Safe

The Trump-Vance ticket’s unbridled racist attacks on Haitian immigrants in Ohio – as a proxy for attacking immigrants and people of color everywhere – continue unabated deep into the second week of serving as a centerpiece of a campaign that was searching for a way to gain traction against Kamala Harris.

In a troubling sign of how the xenophobia at play here may be yoked to the powers of the federal government in a Trump II presidency, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH, ironically) insisted on continuing to call the Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio “illegal aliens” even though they are legal immigrants.

When confronted by a questioner about the Haitians being in the country legally, Vance played to the crowd and, with stubborn grandiosity, stuck to his false claim denying them their legal status:

As NPR noted, Vance’s remarks had the additional effect of calling into question whether a not insignificant portion of the immigrant community would lose their legal statuses if Trump wins. Combined with the specter of Trump’s threat of mass deportations if he wins, the rhetoric that the Republican campaign is staking the race on continues to blur the line between legal and illegal immigration in a way that puts immigrants of all statuses at risk.

In other developments:

  • TPM’s Nicole Lafond: Ohio Republican Leaders Gently Beg Trump To Please Not Visit Springfield
  • Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and his wife have traveled to Haiti at least 25 times and helped found a school there named after their late daughter.
  • Adam Serwer: The Real Reason Trump and Vance Are Spreading Lies About Haitians
  • WSJ: How the Trump Campaign Ran With Rumors About Pet-Eating Migrants—After Being Told They Weren’t True

By The Numbers: Pennsylvania

2024 Ephemera

  • The national Teamsters union is declining to issue an endorsement in the presidential race for the first time in almost three decades.
  • More than 100 former GOP national security officials and members of Congress endorsed Kamala Harris, calling Donald Trump “unfit to serve again as president.”
  • The Guardian: “Emails obtained by the Guardian reveal a behind-the-scenes network of county election officials throughout Georgia coordinating on policy and messaging to both call the results of November’s election into question before a single vote is cast, and push rules and procedures favored by the election denial movement.”

‘Unwelcome and Unacceptable Malicious Activity’

AP: Iranian hackers tried but failed to interest Biden’s campaign in stolen Trump info, FBI says

TPM Exclusive

A trio of Democratic senators on the relevant committees – Judiciary and Intel – have told TPM they favor a Senate investigation into murky claims surfaced last month by the WaPo that Egypt allegedly funneled $10 million to Donald Trump to boost his 2016 campaign – an allegation that was being probed by federal investigators until they were reportedly stymied by the Trump DOJ.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post and Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press have moved to unseal court documents related to the story.

Oh …

ProPublica: “Federal Judge Aileen M. Cannon, the controversial jurist who tossed out the classified documents criminal case against Donald Trump in July, failed to disclose her attendance at a May 2023 banquet funded by a conservative law school.”

House GOP Is Doing House GOP Things

Punchbowl, with the punchy lede:

At the outset of September, House Republican leaders told us they were going to spend the weeks before the election dividing Democrats and uniting the GOP.

But in forcing a vote on a six-month CR with the SAVE Act — a move that failed badly on the House floor Wednesday night — Speaker Mike Johnson succeeded in spending a week dividing his party and lessening his already minuscule leverage with the Senate.

Sign Of The Times

A bipartisan group of four members of Congress are proposing a constitutional amendment to ensure continuity of government in the event of a mass casualty attack on the national legislature.

For The Record

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) issued an executive order banning “conversion therapy” for minors.

Riveting

The NYT has the best rundown of Israel’s staggering one-two punch against Hezbollah using exploding pagers Tuesday then exploding walkie-talkies Wednesday.

Ghosts Of Joe McCarthy

This may be the most outrageous conduct I’ve ever seen from a member of Congress in a committee hearing.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) has patented his country bumpkin schtick – and believe me when I tell you it’s pure schtick – but it wore thin a long time ago. His atrocious behavior Wednesday in relentlessly and falsely besmirching the leader of an Arab American group was neither home-spun nor folksy.

It was racist, inflammatory, intellectually dishonest, and put Maya Berry and Arab Americans everywhere at personal risk of physical harm by labeling them as terrorist sympathizers on the basis of their religion and ethnicity:

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Immigrants Are Unsung Heroes Of Global Trade And Value Creation, Research Finds

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

In nearly every country that hosts foreign-born citizens, immigration emerges as a lightning rod for controversy. The economic realities of immigration, however, are far more complex than the negative sound bites suggest.

Far from being a burden, as critics claim, immigrants play pivotal roles in driving innovation, enhancing productivity and fostering economic growth in their adopted countries. They also elevate their adopted and origin countries’ standings in global value chains, contributing to economic resilience.

We are economists who study global trade and migration, and our recent work reveals that immigrants contribute far more to the economic fabric of nations than previously understood.

By facilitating what’s known as “trade in value added,” or TiVA, immigrants play a crucial role in helping countries specialize their production, move up the value chain and significantly enhance trade sophistication.

Moving up the value chain means progressing from producing basic, low-value goods to more complex, higher-value products. This shift involves improving skills, technology and production techniques, allowing a country to capture more economic value and develop advanced industries.

So, what exactly is trade in value added, and why is it important?

In today’s global economy, products are rarely made entirely in one country. Instead, different stages of production occur across multiple nations. TiVA measures each country’s contribution to a final product, providing clearer insight into global value chains. For instance, while an iPhone may be assembled in China, its components come from various countries, each adding value.

Measuring the effect on global value chains

Our study found that a 10% increase in immigrants from a particular country residing in one of the 38 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member states leads to a 2.08% increase in the value added from their home country that becomes embedded in their host country’s exports to the world.

This effect was strongest in the services sector, followed closely by agriculture and manufacturing.

To understand how this works, consider Indian software engineers in Silicon Valley. Their understanding of the U.S. tech industry and India’s IT sector can lead to partnerships. These partnerships lead to Indian firms providing specialized coding services for American tech giants. The result? Higher-value U.S. tech exports that incorporate Indian expertise. This perfectly illustrates how immigrants boost trade in value added.

Or take Chinese immigrants in Italy’s fashion industry. Their cultural knowledge might help Italian luxury brands tailor products for the Chinese market and connect Italian designers with highly skilled textile workers in China. The result? Italian fashion exports incorporate Chinese craftsmanship, elevating both countries’ global fashion value chain positions.

Our findings show that immigrants are pivotal bridges in global trade networks. They leverage their unique knowledge, skills and connections to strengthen economic bonds between nations. That’s in line with previous research showing the significant role immigrants play in fostering bilateral trade.

Why immigration matters in the global economy

In an era of increasing skepticism toward globalization and migration, understanding the positive economic impacts of immigration is crucial. Our current and previous research, and the findings from related studies, indicate that rather than “stealing jobs,” immigrants often create value and new economic opportunities that might not otherwise exist.

Immigrants bring diverse skills, knowledge and networks to their host countries that can enhance innovation, fill labor shortages and open new market opportunities. They often possess unique insights into their home country markets, helping host country firms navigate cultural nuances and business practices that might otherwise pose trade barriers.

For home countries, emigrants can serve as cultural ambassadors, creating awareness, showcasing products and services, and helping to integrate their homeland into global value chains. They may also contribute to knowledge transfer, investment flows and business connections that boost their home and host countries’ economic development.

Moreover, immigrants’ ability to enhance trade in value added suggests they play a role in moving countries up the economic value chain. Rather than simply facilitating trade in raw materials or essential manufactured goods, immigrants appear to boost trade in more sophisticated, higher-value products and services. This is crucial for economic development, as countries that position themselves higher in global value chains tend to see bigger benefits.

Rethinking immigration and trade policies

Our observations have important implications for both immigration and trade. For one, they suggest that restrictive immigration policies might have unintended consequences, hindering a country’s trade performance and position in global value chains. Countries that want to become more economically competitive might consider more open immigration policies.

What’s more, our research indicates that immigrants’ economic benefits extend beyond the often-cited labor-market and fiscal impacts — in other words, having more workers who pay more taxes.

The evidence suggests policymakers should take a more holistic view of immigration’s economic effects, considering its role in facilitating sophisticated international trade and value creation.

Our results also align with previous research highlighting the potential value of workforce diversity for businesses, particularly for firms engaged in international trade. Employees from diverse national backgrounds can bring valuable insights and connections that help their companies navigate global markets and value chains.

It’s worth noting that immigrants’ impact on trade in value added varies across countries and sectors. This suggests that rather than one-size-fits-all approaches, targeted policies might most effectively leverage immigration for economic benefit.

Maximizing immigration’s positive impacts on trade and value chains also requires supportive policies and institutions that allow immigrants to use their skills and networks fully. These might include programs to assist with economic integration, language training, credential recognition and support for immigrant entrepreneurship.

A new perspective on immigration

As the global economy continues to evolve, with value chains becoming ever more complex and interconnected, the role of immigrants as facilitators of trade and value creation is likely to grow even more significant. Countries that recognize and leverage this potential stand to gain a competitive edge in the global marketplace.

Our research paints a picture of immigrants not as economic burdens but as valuable assets who enhance their host and home countries’ positions in the global economy. By making sophisticated trade linkages possible, and by boosting participation in global value chains, immigrants contribute to economic growth and development in ways that go far beyond conventional understanding.

As debates around immigration continue, it’s crucial to move beyond simplistic narratives and recognize the complex and often subtle ways that immigrants contribute to prosperity. In an interconnected world, immigrants aren’t just crossing borders — they are helping to weave the fabric of global trade and value creation.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Newsom Takes Significant Stab At Reining In Social Media Disinfo, Prompting Ire From Musk

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed three artificial intelligence bills into law on Tuesday in an attempt to require social media companies to moderate the spread of disinfo and deepfakes — deceptive images, videos or audio clips resembling actual people — during elections. 

The trio, including a first-of-its-kind-law, largely aims to ban, remove or label AI-generated deepfakes and other intentionally misleading content related to elections during specific periods. 

While disinformation has played a growing role in American elections for decades, deepfake technology has in recent years advanced at a ferocious speed. 

Deepfakes Ahead Of 2024 Elections

The 2024 cycle has seen an explosion of faked videos, prompting high-profile controversies. 

In August, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social a deceptive, AI-generated image in which Taylor Swift appeared to endorse his candidacy — a move which backfired when the very popular singer instead endorsed Kamala Harris for president while warning of the dangers of deepfakes and misinformation.

In July, Elon Musk shared a faked Harris campaign video in which a manipulated version of Harris’ voice taking digs at her gender, race, her record as vice president and President Joe Biden. “This is amazing,” the tech CEO wrote with a laughing-crying emoji. 

That episode prompted Newsom to preview the California legislation. “Manipulating a voice in an ‘ad’ like this one should be illegal,” he tweeted at the time. “I’ll be signing a bill in a matter of weeks to make sure it is.”

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Musk took to social media to mock the new California laws over several posts, suggesting they were violations of the First Amendment and would “make parody illegal.” The laws contain exemptions for parody, but one of the three requires parodies to feature a disclaimer in the run-up to an election.

The newly minted California laws come as lawmakers across the country have been contemplating how to regulate AI-generated political content to contain the spread of misinformation and disinformation aimed at confusing voters.

Over the last two years, Capitol Hill has shown sporadic interest in the ramifications of AI, specifically political deepfakes, as well as how to regulate them without undermining freedom of speech rights. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have introduced bills to try and address a complicated set of issues without success. State legislatures have also sought to address the problem: Over the past two years, 18 states have passed some form of laws to limit deepfakes in elections, according to Public Citizen’s tracker.

The California Bills

The California bills are “game changers,” said Oren Etzioni, the founder and CEO of TrueMedia.org — a non-profit dedicated to fighting political deepfakes — and the founding director of the Allen Institute for AI. If successfully enacted, the laws will force social media companies to react by building restrictions into their platforms, he told TPM.

The first bill signed by Newsom, which takes effect immediately and aims to limit the circulation of deepfakes, prohibits people or groups “from knowingly distributing an advertisement or other election material containing deceptive AI-generated or manipulated content” within 120 days of a California election.

The second, set to go into effect in January, requires AI generated audio, video or images in political advertisements to be labeled.

And the third one, also set to go into effect in the new year, requires social media platforms and other websites with more than one million users in California to label or remove AI generated deepfakes within 72 hours following a complaint. The bill also empowers “candidates, elected officials, elections officials, the Attorney General, and a district attorney or city attorney to seek injunctive relief against a large online platform for noncompliance with the act.”

“Safeguarding the integrity of elections is essential to democracy, and it’s critical that we ensure AI is not deployed to undermine the public’s trust through disinformation — especially in today’s fraught political climate,” Newsom said in a Tuesday statement detailing the three bills.

The laws will almost certainly face extensive challenges in court from social media companies and First Amendment rights groups. The creator of the video Musk tweeted filed a suit in federal court on Wednesday.

Etonzi expressed concern about how California regulators will enforce the bills, and about the provisions of the bills that require social media companies to identify and take action against deepfakes on their own. 

“Self regulation is a little bit like asking the fox to regulate himself outside the hen house,” Etzioni said. “Not likely to be effective, and has actually proven to not be effective by and large.”

But if California prevails, Etzioni said, the state, as home to many leading social media and AI companies, could offer a roadmap for regulators across the country — or at the federal level — who are hoping to successfully curb the use of deepfakes. 

In fact, Newsom signed the bills the same week that a bipartisan group of lawmakers, including California’s U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Adam Schiff (D), introduced a House bill that would federally prohibit political campaigns and other political groups from using AI to create deepfakes to misrepresent their rivals or their views. That bill would also give the Federal Election Commission the power to regulate the use of AI in elections.