Biden Forced To Remind Everyone He Doesn’t Control The Weather

For politicians who still ground their rhetoric, more or less, in the real world, there’s an argument to be made for they-go-low-we-go-high-ing your way out of acknowledging most of the far-right’s most vile, racist, extreme and dangerous conspiracy theories, including those propagated by Donald Trump himself.

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Miscellaneous Thoughts on Polling

I wanted to share with you a few ideas, possible insights and caveats about campaign polls. These aren’t original to me in most cases, just some general points, observations, etc.

First, herding: Herding is the phenomenon in which even professional, good-faith polling operations start grouping together in the latter stages of a campaign because you don’t want to go too far out from the consensus numbers. Right now the national top lines have been between 2 and 4 points in Harris’ favor for a couple months. If you do a poll that gets you plus 10 in either direction, you’re going to think or are liable to think something’s wrong with your numbers. Somehow you’ve just got a spoiled set of data. Maybe you don’t release that poll or maybe you look again at the numbers and decide there are too few of some demographic subset and you re-weight that and it brings the topline back close to that 2-4 range.

It’s also the case that voter choice gets more settled in the final weeks of a campaign. So maybe the voters are actually herding themselves. There are lots of possibilities. But the general point here is that there are factors which can drive even ethical and professional pollsters in this herding direction.

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The Text Campaign Underworld and the Florid Anti-Semitism You Can Find There

When I asked to see the text messages you’re receiving, I was mainly interested in the presidential race and even more those coming from the right. I’m also interested in ones from the Harris side and from the big Senate races. It’s a fascinating and illuminating prism into an often subterranean part of the campaigns, and ones that can fly under the radar. But I was particularly struck by this text TPM Reader BG received in New York City.

It identifies itself as coming from a group called “Turn Left,” which is associated with Richard Ojeda from West Virginia. Ojeda’s name isn’t a household word. But you may remember him. He came to a fame as a West Virginia Democrat who voted for Trump in 2016 and then turned against him. He gained a lot of attention in 2018 and 2020 as a candidate who could give Democrats purchase in rural, Trumpy parts of the country. This ad combines the hurricane misinformation of the moment — $750 checks to storm survivors — with pretty florid and traditional anti-Semitic tropes about a “genocidal AIPAC” that has its “claws so deep in Washington” that it “cuts checks to bomb civilians while your neighbors drown.”

“This is what happens,” it continues, “when genocidal groups like AIPAC buy off our leaders. When the same corrupt politicians line their pockets with blood money, then look us in the eye and tell us there’s nothing left for healthcare, education or disaster relief.”

Full text after the jump …

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Johnson Is Trying To Keep His Options Open As He Dodges Questions On Election Certification

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), an increasingly loyal Donald Trump ally, gave a vague, cryptic response to a question around if he would willingly preside over the certification of the 2024 presidential election if he is still speaker.

“Look, I think I have shown that I am a rule-of-law person,” Johnson told Politico. “I follow the Constitution and follow the laws, and we just pray and hope and pray that this is a non-controversial election, and that everything’s fair and square, and that I hope the margin is large for whomever wins so that there’s no questions for anybody.”

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Ohio Is Home To Dozens Of Extremist Groups Angry About Its Changing Demographics

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

The first time many Americans heard about Springfield, Ohio, came during the September 2024 presidential debate when Donald Trump falsely claimed that Haitian immigrants in the city were eating other residents’ cats and dogs.

Though shocking, these harmful rumors had been spreading on social media since the beginning of the summer and had gained more notoriety when JD Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio and Trump’s running mate, made similar statements on X, the social media platform formerly called Twitter.

But what has gone mostly overlooked is the effect these racist lies have had on energizing Ohio’s nearly 50 white extremist groups.

Members of the white supremacist group Blood Tribe marched through Springfield on Aug. 10, 2024, with with swastikas on their signs.

Since then, members of the Ku Klux Klan and the right-wing extremist group Proud Boys have each marched in separate demonstrations through Springfield.

As scholars of extremism who live in Ohio and work at the University of Dayton, we have seen these events unfold at a time when city officials have received multiple bomb threats targeting local government offices and schools since Trump’s false and racist claims against Haitian immigrants.

The changing landscape

In our research, we have found that the rapidly changing social conditions in Ohio have played a significant role in the growth of extremism.

Between 1990 and 2019, for instance, manufacturing jobs shrank from 21.7% of all employment in the state to 12.5%, a loss of nearly 360,000 jobs. As a result, income disparities between the professional and working classes have widened – as has the heightened sense among some alienated white men that white conservatives are the real victims of bias in a society growing more racially and culturally diverse.

A group of men wearing brown shirts and Nazi swastikas stand in front of the Toledo, Ohio City Hall building and are surrounded by policemen.
A neo-Nazi group speaks under heavy police protection at a 2005 rally sponsored by the National Socialist Movement at City Hall in Toledo, Ohio. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

For many of these alienated men, particularly those in rural areas that lack significant numbers of Black and Hispanic residents, extremist ideologies offer easy answers to complex questions that involve their sense of disenfranchisement.

In 2020, for example, the population of Springfield was about 60,000. But over the past three years, city officials estimate that the population has grown by about 25%, partly fueled by the arrival of as many as 15,000 Haitian immigrants during that time. Many of them are legally living in the U.S. under a special federal program.

Similar demographic shifts are occurring throughout the state. Between 2010 and 2022, the percentage of the white population dropped from 81.2% to 77.3%, a loss of about 250,000, putting the state’s white population at about 9.1 million. During the same time, the Hispanic population, for instance, grew from about 357,000 in 2010 to nearly 525,000.

For some of these white extremists, these population changes will lead to an inevitable race war between white people and nonwhite people. We have found that the attraction of belonging to a group that promises strength, protection and a source of identity can be particularly compelling.

The Ohio connection

In recent years, white extremism in Ohio has received attention as a result of the extremist rhetoric of and often violent crimes committed by white men who call the state home. Consider just a few examples:

Born and raised in Ohio, Andrew Anglin founded the Daily Stormer, a popular neo-Nazi website, in 2016.

An image of a white man staring into a camera at a police station.
James Alex Fields Jr. of Maumee, Ohio, poses for a mug shot after he drove his car into a crowd of counterprotesters in Charlottesville, Va., on Aug. 12, 2017. Albemarle-Charlottesville Regional Jail via Getty Images

James Alex Fields Jr., a white nationalist from the Toledo area, was sentenced to life in prison in 2019 for the murder of Heather Heyer in Charlottesville, Virginia. Fields was convicted of driving his car into a crowd of counterprotesters during the white nationalist Unite the Right Rally in August 2017.

Prior to the attack, Fields frequently posted the hashtag #Hitlerwasright on his social media accounts and called for violence against nonwhites and Jews.

In the summer of 2022, Ohio law enforcement officers shot and killed Ricky Shiffer after the armed Navy veteran fired a nail gun at the FBI field office in Cincinnati. On his social media accounts, Shiffer had called for violence against federal law enforcement officials after the FBI searched Donald Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago as part of the federal probe into Trump’s handling of classified documents.

Tres Genco, a self-described incel – short for “involuntary celibate” – who hated women and believed he was owed sex from them, was from the Cincinnati area and pled guilty in 2022 to plotting a mass shooting of women at Ohio State University. Law enforcement officials in Ohio stopped the planned attack before it happened.

On April 21, 2023, Christopher Brenner Cook, 20, of Columbus, Ohio, and others were sentenced to nearly eight years in prison for his plan to attack power grids across the U.S. Cook and his accomplices believed that they were starting a race war and used neo-Nazi propaganda and white supremacist ideology to recruit young people to join their group.

Online recruitment tactics

Leaders of white supremacist and militia groups often use both traditional outreach and digital platforms to recruit people to their groups. Traditional outreach includes recruitment in conversations, attending events, and sharing books, pamphlets, flyers and posters.

At the same time, social media has become a critical tool for extremist groups to spread their message, recruit members and organize events.

These online platforms create echo chambers that reinforce extremist beliefs in debunked conspiracy theories, such as the assumption that the federal government is part of a plot to eliminate the white race.

In addition to the increased traffic on social media, we have seen a rise of extremist groups in Ohio known as active clubs, where members engage in physical fitness, combat training and emotional support that encourages the development of a warrior mentality in preparation for what followers believe is an inevitable race war.

Countering extremism in Ohio

Though the emergence of white extremist groups goes far beyond the borders of Ohio, we have found that community-based, educational initiatives are effective in understanding and ultimately eradicating the root causes of racial and ethnic hatred on the local level.

In our view, community engagement that emphasizes dialogue and understanding across different racial groups is crucial for demonstrating the dangers of intolerance – and the benefits of diversity.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Georgia Board Turns Election Deniers Into Election ‘Monitors’

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Oy …

Fulton County filed a lawsuit Tuesday against the Georgia State Election Board to try to block it from sending in election deniers to serve as election “monitors.” The MAGA Republican majority on the board wants to appoint its own monitors despite Fulton County already having appointed a team to monitor its performance in this election.

Check out these bios of the “monitor” assigned to Fulton County:

They include former [state] Rep. Frank Ryan [R-PA], who asked his state’s congressional delegation not to recognize its electors in December 2020, and Heather Honey, a subcontractor in the Cyber Ninjas audit of the 2020 presidential election in Maricopa County, Arizona.

Honey is also responsible for the false claim, repeated by Trump, that there were “205,000 more votes than you had voters” in Pennsylvania.

Vote-rich Fulton County is plurality Black and had been a frequent target of Republicans trying to sow doubt and discord about election results.

The State Election Board responded to the Fulton County lawsuit yesterday by subpoenaing the county’s records for the … 2020 … election. Will it never end?

Sign O’ The Times

Bloomberg: “A new wrought-iron fence wraps around the Maricopa County office where votes will be counted next month. On Election Day, there’ll be concrete barriers too, along with plainclothes officers and mounted police.”

Alleged Election Day Terror Plot Thwarted

The FBI arrested an Afghan national in Oklahoma who was allegedly plotting an Election Day terror attack. The FBI got wind of the 27-year-old man, allegedly inspired by the Islamic State, and used a confidential informant to sell him and his juvenile brother-in-law a pair of AK-47 rifles and ammunition, at which point they were arrested Monday.

2024 Ephemera

  • Presidential Transition: The Trump campaign has blown deadlines to participate in the official presidential transition process that both candidates usually engage in to smooth the post-election change of power, the NYT reports. One potential advantage for Trump of not participating: “His refusal to sign the documents allows him to circumvent fund-raising rules that put limits on private contributions to the transition effort, as well as ethics rules meant to avoid possible conflicts of interest for the incoming administration.”
  • Electoral College: Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) reiterated his call to abolish the Electoral College, a position not favored by his running Kamala Harris, their campaign was quick to point out.

Which Is Worse?

The two big Trump-Putin reveals from Bob Woodward’s new book “War”:

  • Trump has spoken with Putin as many as seven times since leaving office, according to an unnamed Trump aide. (That account was not able to be immediately confirmed by other journalists.)
  • Trump secretly sent COVID tests to Putin for his personal use in 2020 when the tests were in short supply. (The Kremlin confirmed this account but denied that the two leaders have spoken by phone since Trump left office.)

Finding The Limits Of SCOTUS’ Conservative Majority

In oral arguments Tuesday, even the Supreme Court’s right-wing justices expressed skepticism towards a proposed ghost gun free-for-all.

‘Nobody Can Control The Weather’

The wave of misinformation in the wake of Hurricane Helene – some of it spread by Elon Musk – forced a Republican congressman in western North Carolina to issue a press release titled “Debunking Helene Response Myths.” One of the first entries in the press release from Rep. Chuck Edward (R-NC): “Nobody can control the weather.”

The Antisemitic Overtones Of Hurricane Helene Misinfo

  • Politico: “FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said the swirl of false conspiracy theories around Hurricane Helene is dissuading survivors from seeking help and hurting morale among responders.”
  • NYT: “A wave of antisemitic rhetoric and online threats has been leveled at state and federal officials in North Carolina in recent days as they respond to the destructive aftermath of Hurricane Helene, according to a report released on Tuesday by a nonprofit research group that studies online platforms.”
  • WaPo: “The report noted that antisemitic sentiments were largely directed at three individual officials: FEMA director of public affairs Jaclyn Rothenberg, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Asheville, N.C., Mayor Esther Manheimer.”

Good Read

H. Colleen Sinclair: 5 Types Of People Who Spread Conspiracy Theories They Know Are Wrong

Oklahoma Shamed Out Of Trump Bible Grift?

Oklahoma modified the specs Monday for its request for proposals to provide 55,000 Bibles that State Superintendent Ryan Walters wants to put in public schools. The RFP now appears to be broad enough to include Bibles other than a specific Trump-endorsed Lee Greenwood edition.

Takedown Of The Day

UNITED STATES – JULY 18: Former first lady Melania Trump is seen in the Fiserv Forum on the last night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wis., on Thursday July 18, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Monica Hesse eviscerates Melania Trump’s new memoir:

So where does “Melania” — a plain-black-covered book written by a woman who rightly assumes she needs no other introduction — fall into this pantheon [of first lady memoirs]? Let’s check:

“Over the next few months, we developed several items: the Fluid Day Serum, the Luxe Night with Vitamins A and E, cleansing balm, and an exfoliating peel, all priced between $50 and $150. In my meetings with chemists, I discovered the rejuvenating properties of caviar.”

Where are we? What are we doing? 

Indeed.

Good Luck To MM Readers In Florida

The next 18-36 hours are going to be real rough across central Florida as major Hurricane Milton threatens to send a devastating storm surge into areas that are still recovering from last month’s Hurricane Helene and 2022’s Hurricane Ian. We’re thinking about you.

Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!

Texts

A lot of you are getting campaign text messages. If they’re pitches for money, those aren’t as important. But I’m particularly interested in ones that are putting nuggets of news in front of you to, in theory, drive your vote for one or the other candidate. If you’re getting these and haven’t requested they stop, I’m very interested to see them. Ideally, if you can screenshot them and send them to me at the regular TPM email, great. If you can cut and paste, that works too. Let me know what you’re seeing. And if possible, let me know where you’re getting them geographically and anything general about your political profile that might help me understand what kind of people the campaigns are sending them to.

In New Report Into FBI’s Half-Baked Kavanaugh Probe, Thomas-Hill Parallels Abound

The two cases already drew obvious parallels, 30 years apart: Men are nominated for the Supreme Court, their elevation prompts revelations of alleged past harms done to multiple women, Republicans go into total-war mode to smear the women and defend their nominees, Democrats and the FBI fail to protect the women or disqualify the nominees. 

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Latest Target Of DeSantis’ Intimidation Project: TV Stations That Air Amendment 4 Ads

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) administration is reportedly trying to intimidate television stations into taking down advertisements put out by supporters of Amendment 4 — a proposal on the ballot in Florida this fall that seeks to codify abortion access into the Sunshine State constitution, where abortion is banned after six weeks.

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Even Supreme Court’s Right Wing Expresses Skepticism Towards Proposed Ghost Gun Free-For-All

While the conservative supermajority of the Supreme Court plainly wields an expansive view of gun rights (and a shrinkingly narrow one of agency power), it occasionally butts up against a plea for deregulation with ramifications too extreme for even these justices. 

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