Trump Refocuses On Pennsylvania To Shore Up Reelection

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — President Donald Trump’s campaign has grown increasingly focused on making inroads in Pennsylvania to offset potential vulnerabilities in other battlegrounds.

The president will travel to the state for the second time in a week on Saturday, hoping to attract the same rural and white working-class voters who delivered him a narrow victory here in 2016. The in-person touch, in what may become the most important battleground on the map, complements an aggressive get-out-the-vote operation that has been working for four years to find new voters by knocking on doors in competitive neighborhoods.

Trump narrowly flipped three Great Lakes states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — from blue to red in 2016. He has virtually no path to reelection without keeping at least one of those states in his column. His campaign has long viewed Wisconsin as his best option, but aides who requested anonymity to discuss strategy said their thinking has begun to shift.

There are growing concerns inside the campaign, the aides said, about Trump’s ability to retain Wisconsin. Even winning that upper Midwest battleground wouldn’t provide the needed votes if Trump’s Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, claims Arizona.

But Pennsylvania would be enough.

“With Pennsylvania, I don’t have to make a play, we’ve got Pennsylvania,” boasted Trump at a rally Tuesday night just outside Pittsburgh.

That may be harder than Trump suggests.

Despite fervent Republican efforts, no GOP nominee since George H.W. Bush in 1988 had captured the state until Trump did four years ago, winning by just 44,000 votes out of nearly 5.9 million cast. And as someone born in Scranton, Joe Biden is also heavily focused on the state.

Recent Pennsylvania polls disagree over the state of the race: Some show Trump and Biden in a competitive race, while others have Biden slightly ahead of Trump.

And just as “Florida, Florida, Florida” became the moniker in 2000 for the electoral delays and controversies in the state that decided the election that year, Pennsylvania, which may be 2020’s tipping point state, may have its own drama looming.

With 3 million or more voters expected to cast ballots by mail, lawmakers, party officials and election officials are warning that the conditions are ripe for a presidential election result to be left hanging in limbo on a drawn-out vote. A partisan stalemate and lawsuits have held up fixes to glitches in the state’s fledgling mail-in voting law, and Democrats are warning that as many as 100,000 or more mail-in ballots — dubbed “naked ballots” — could be invalidated if they aren’t put in the proper envelope by people unaccustomed to voting by mail.

Pennsylvania also is where a federal prosecutor’s announcement that nine mailed-in military ballots had been found in the trash at a local election office was seized upon by Trump and his supporters. But there was little explanation of what had happened or whether investigators believed a criminal act had occurred in a county controlled by Republicans.

Pennsylvania is anchored by large cities — Philadelphia to the east, Pittsburgh to the west — on opposite ends, each with sprawling suburbs. But the rest of the state is largely rural, comprised of small cities and towns where Trump ran up the score four years ago.

He will likely need to again, as his prospects have slipped since 2016 in vote-rich suburban Philadelphia, where he underperformed by past Republican measures. This raises the stakes for his campaign’s more aggressive outreach to new rural and small-town voters across the industrial north.

In Chester County, for instance, Trump was the first Republican presidential nominee in more than 50 years to lose what is Pennsylvania’s fourth most-populous county and once a GOP stronghold. While 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried the county on the western edge of metro Philadelphia, Trump fell short by 10 percentage points.

If Trump is to carry Pennsylvania again, he cannot just add new voters in the state’s expansive rural areas but must stop the bleeding outside Philadelphia, former Rep. Ryan Costello, a Republican, said.

“If the hypothesis is Trump can increase his margin, he will have to first not allow regions where he didn’t perform well to perform worse,” Costello said. “That means he has to make up even more ground.”

Republicans also point to an aging population and a shrinking voter-registration edge for Democrats, down 20% from 2016’s election to 733,000, according to the latest state data, although the numbers also show that many more non-voting Democrats than Republicans fell off voter rolls in the last four years.

Despite the pandemic, Trump’s campaign has prioritized in-person events, including over 4,000 meet-ups that have drawn more than 38,000 people. The president and his allies are also hitting hard in TV ads accusing Biden of wanting to ban fracking, a sensitive topic in the No. 2 natural gas state behind Texas.

While Biden insists he does not want to ban fracking broadly — he wants to ban it on federal lands and make electricity production fossil-fuel free by 2035 — it may make it harder for him to win back rank-and-file union members who work on an expanding network of pipelines, power plants and processing facilities.

Biden may have an advantage in getting his message out in the state. He’s outspent Trump by more than 2-to-1 in Pennsylvania from last spring through this month, according to data from Kantar/CMAG, a market research and consulting firm. From April through mid-September, Biden had spent $27 million compared with the Trump campaign’s $12.5 million.

The campaigns had reserved similar amounts for the six-week stretch to Nov. 3, with Trump at $11.5 million and Biden at $10.1 million.

Pennsylvania, which is tied for the fourth most electoral college votes, is “personal” for Biden, the former vice president recently acknowledged during one of his trips to his native state.

Since the beginning of June, he’s made eight in-person trips to Pennsylvania, far outpacing other states with his pandemic-limited itinerary. Priorities USA, a pro-Democrat group, has identified Pennsylvania as the likely tipping point state in the Electoral College, and it announced Thursday a new $7.3 million TV and online ad blitz in the state that will pummel Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Sincere Harris, a senior strategist for Biden in Pennsylvania, said the personal ties to the state are “huge” and open a path to votes that other Democrats might not get.

“Biden is in the perfect position to come back to these voters that Trump lied to four years ago,” Harris said.

Breonna Taylor’s Family Demands Release Of Evidence In Her Case

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — Breonna Taylor’s family demanded Friday that Kentucky authorities release all body camera footage, police files and the transcripts of the grand jury proceedings that led to no charges being brought against police officers who killed the Black woman during a raid at her apartment.

The decision disappointed and angered those who have been calling for justice for Taylor for six months, and protesters vowed to stay in the streets until all the officers involved are fired or someone is charged with her killing.

A diverse group, including Taylor’s mother, marched through Louisville on Friday evening. The protests were peaceful, though at one point, police in riot gear fired flash bang devices to turn back a crowd on a street. Two were arrested, authorities said.

About a dozen people who were out past the city’s 9 p.m. curfew were arrested later.

Earlier, Taylor’s lawyers and family expressed dismay that no one has been held accountable for her death.

“I am an angry Black woman. I am not angry for the reasons that you would like me to be. But angry because our Black women keep dying at the hands of police officers — and Black men,” Taylor’s mother, Tamika Palmer, wrote in a statement read by a relative. She stood close by wearing a shirt that said, “I (heart) Louisville Police” with bullet holes in the heart emoji.

Palmer’s statement said the criminal justice system had failed her, and state Attorney General Daniel Cameron was the final person in the chain, following the officer who sought a no-knock warrant as part of a drug investigation, the judge who signed it and police who burst into Taylor’s apartment. The warrant was connected to a suspect who did not live there, and no drugs were found inside.

Taylor was shot multiple times by white officers after her boyfriend fired at them, authorities said. He said he didn’t know who was coming in and fired in self-defense, wounding one officer. Cameron, Kentucky’s first Black attorney general, said the officers were not charged with Taylor’s killing because they acted to protect themselves.

The grand jury indicted one officer on endangerment charges, saying he fired gunshots into a neighboring home that didn’t strike anyone. He has been fired.

“I hope you never know the pain of your child being murdered 191 days in a row,” said Bianca Austin, wearing her niece’s emergency medical technician jacket as she read Palmer’s statement.

Family attorney Sam Aguiar said all the videos should be released because Cameron’s investigation is over, noting that he’s seen dozens of them, most of which are not public.

Cameron “got so much wrong. We’ve seen so much piecemeal stuff come out throughout the case,” he said without giving specifics.

Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, also has called on the Republican attorney general to release what evidence he can.

Cameron said through a spokeswoman that he understood the family’s pain.

“Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but prosecutors and Grand Jury members are bound by the facts and by the law,” spokeswoman Elizabeth Kuhn said in a statement.

As Taylor’s family decried how the case was handled, a man accused of shooting and wounding two officers during protests Wednesday appeared in court. They’re expected to recover.

A not-guilty plea was entered for Larynzo D. Johnson, 26, and bond was set at $1 million. Attorney Zac Meihaus called the streets “a war zone” when the shooting happened and said it’s difficult to “pinpoint” if Johnson fired the shots in question. A prosecutor replied that a gun was recovered from Johnson, and there are video and witness accounts of the shooting.

Taylor’s case has become a rallying cry as protesters nationwide call out racism and demand police reforms.

Protesters marched through Louisville on Friday with a purple banner bearing Taylor’s name. They danced and chanted, “Bow for Breonna.” Some handed out pizza or water, while others tried to register voters.

One protester, Victoria Gunther, was so outraged she traveled more than 600 miles (965 kilometers) from Reading, Pennsylvania, to Louisville.

“I’m a Black woman — that could have been me, that would have been my family,” she said. “We are disrespected and disregarded. They think we don’t matter. That’s why I’m here, to say we do matter.”

The police presence was light until protesters neared the city’s East Market section, a few blocks from the banks of the Ohio River. About a dozen police cruisers were parked under a highway overpass, and officers with clubs and face shields formed a semi-circle blocking protesters’ path.

Police told people to move to the sidewalk. Officers deployed two flash bang rounds into the air, and the crowd moved away, authorities said in a statement. Past a nighttime curfew, people gathered in a park that protesters are now calling “Injustice Square” and then at a church, where there was no major police presence — a change from the previous night.

As he marched, David Ward wore his cap that says “Desert Storm Veteran” because he wanted to send a message: he fought for America, but when he takes his hat off, he’s a Black man treated like any other in a country built on racism.

“When I put that hat on, I’m a good person, when I don’t, I’m a bad person in their eyes,” Ward said, and to him that means Black people must constantly prove their worth.

At least 24 people were arrested Thursday night — including Democratic state Rep. Attica Scott — during protests that authorities said resulted in vandalism.

The curfew in Louisville will last through the weekend, and the governor has called up the National Guard for “limited missions.”

How The Right Branded A Mock Election Exercise As A Dry Run For A Lefty Coup

On the Sept. 3 episode of his show, The National Pulse, right-wing broadcaster Raheem Kassam acknowledged that he might be irritating his audience with his repeated references to a series of tabletop election simulations that happened in June.

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Reports: Trump Intends To Nominate Amy Coney Barrett To Supreme Court

President Trump reportedly intends to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to fill the seat of the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died a week ago at age 87.

CNN and CBS News reported Friday evening that Trump will tap Barrett for the high court. The President is expected to make a formal announcement Saturday afternoon at the White House, and the Republican-controlled Senate is expected to move swiftly on Trump’s nomination. If confirmed, Trump will have successfully placed three judges on the Supreme Court, likely cementing a conservative majority for decades to come.

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Trump Campaign Official Deletes Tweet That Ignited Firestorm Over Ballot Snafu

After igniting a firestorm of MAGA indignation, a Trump campaign aide has deleted a tweet claiming Democrats were “trying to steal the election.”

Continue reading “Trump Campaign Official Deletes Tweet That Ignited Firestorm Over Ballot Snafu” →

ICYMI: Your TPM Weekend News Roundup

RIP RBG:

Trump’s Strongman Threat

A Big Ol’ Mess In Pennsylvania

  • As TPM’s executive editor David Kurtz said Thursday: Buckle up, the election news is getting wild with less than 40 days to go.
  • This week we’ve been reporting on a bizarre story out of Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. The U.S. Attorney’s office for the Middle District of Pennsylvania issued a press release Thursday saying it was investigating “potential issues” regarding military ballots in the Pennsylvania county. The announcement of the ongoing investigation, along with the selective release of information about it, raised eyebrows among former DOJ officials, TPM’s Tierney Sneed reported.
  • The story got more confusing after U.S. Attorney David Freed sent a letter to a local election official. The letter seemed to acknowledge that the issue stemmed from a mistake, rather than a criminal conspiracy, but it left hanging the notion that there was some malicious intent.
  • On Friday, ABC News reported that Attorney General Bill Barr briefed Trump on the matter, which set off the chain reaction of events that led to the initial bizarre press release.
  • Finally, Luzerne County Manager C. David Pedri explained the situation, saying a temporary seasonal contractor had “incorrectly discarded” the Uniformed Military and Overseas Voters Act (UMOVA) ballots into the trash.

Is this feature useful? Let us know. 

New Trump ‘Plan’ Equates KKK And ‘Antifa’

What do the Ku Klux Klan and “antifa” have in common?

“Nothing,” you might think. One group  has terrorized Black Americans for generations and the other is not really a group at all, just a term for “anti-fascist.” 

Well, you’d be wrong.

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County Explains Ballot Mistake That Sparked DOJ And MAGA Freakouts

An official in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania explained Friday how nine military ballots ended up in a dumpster, a situation that sparked a Trump-world freakout and widely-criticized press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

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Is Your State Ready For The Pandemic Election? A Look At AR, CA, IL, NJ, and VT

Our journey through America’s varying levels of pandemic-voting preparedness continues this week with looks at Arkansas, California, Illinois, New Jersey and Vermont.

Every week, we’re looking at what states have done — or not done — to make voting easier during the coronavirus outbreak, where the fights over those moves have been the most contentious, and which states feature the kind of competitive races that could make things extra messy and volatile come November.

Here’s this week’s installment of our survey, and check out the other states we’ve examined.

Arkansas

Unlike some other states, Arkansas is not sending every active registered voter a ballot for this year’s election. Nor, like many other states, is it sending everyone an application to request a ballot. The state also doesn’t provide prepaid postage.

But let’s count our blessings: In August, Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) did issue an executive order allowing anyone concerned about COVID-19 to vote by mail. In the same order, Hutchinson said that election officials would have additional time, coinciding with the state’s early voting period, to process mailed ballots in order to accommodate the spike in demand.

But the state made these changes reluctantly. In June, the state faced a lawsuit when it dragged its feet to change Arkansas’ existing restrictions for absentee voting — requiring that a voter be “unavoidably absent” — and even then, the state appeared ready to fight the case. County officials, Secretary of State John Thurston said, “have conveyed to my office that they feel the current voting system will be adequate in November.”

The pair of changes — expanding absentee voting and allowing early ballot processing time for elections officials — may be able to expand voting by mail without stressing election officials with a wave of ballots that overwhelm counting capacities. Counties have seen record-breaking demand for the absentee option.

But even with the expansion in absentee voting, challenges remain. For example, ballots received after Election Day, even if they’re postmarked on Election Day, won’t be counted. And prospective voters still can’t register or submit absentee ballot applications online.

The state is a shoo-in for Trump and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK), who faces no Democratic challenger but instead a Libertarian opposed to Cotton’s view that the United States has an “under-incarceration problem.” The Second Congressional District, on the other hand, is surprisingly close according to one recent poll, between incumbent Rep. French Hill (R-AK) and state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D).

California

If you want to know how serious California’s politicians are about mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic — or at least, how serious they are about looking serious — check out the new bill signed into law on last week: SB 739 makes it a misdemeanor to intentionally mislead Californians about their right to vote by mail.

Even before the pandemic, a growing number of Californians were embracing vote-by-mail: State data shows that, over the years, the percentage of ballots cast by mail in California crept up to encompass the majority of the state, reaching 72% earlier this year.

While in-person voting is still available for the general election, every registered, active voter in the state will receive a mail-in ballot for the November contest, in line with a handful of states across the country doing the same. And mailed-in ballots will be counted a full 17 days after Election Day if they are postmarked on time, an extension from years past and one that will allow even more time for the state’s famously slow counting process.

That extension could help some ballots arriving late because of mail delays, but risks remain: A study by the California Voter Foundation found that in 2018, most ballots rejected for late arrival in Sacramento County were actually postmarked the day after Election Day, and therefore wouldn’t have been helped by the 17-day grace period.

The state faces other hurdles: California has millions of eligible voters who self-identify as “limited English proficient” — more than some states have in their total voting populace. And whereas those voters would normally be able to ask poll workers for help at their precinct, this time around many will have to proactively call election officials to request a ballot in their preferred language.

The climate apocalypse poses a threat to voting as well. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated to escape wildfires over the last month, but evacuees can still vote in person, contact election officials to change their address, or even fill out their ballot online and then print and deliver it to election officials.

Advocates in the state voiced another fear to TPM: Distrust of the postal service, spurred by President Trump’s attacks on the institution, could discourage some voters. But Californians have a useful tool on their side in the form of a spiffy ballot tracker.

The state is a lock for Joe Biden. But interesting races abound down-ballot, perhaps most of all in the race to fill the currently vacant seat of convicted felon Duncan Hunter. Hunter’s former congressional competitor Ammar Campa-Najjar and former Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) are locked in a dead heat. CA-25, currently represented by Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) after Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA) stepped down last year, offers a rematch of the special election Garcia won just a few months ago, against State Assemblywoman Christy Smith.

Illinois

Illinois has taken some major steps to make casting a ballot safer during the pandemic, but there are still a few places where voter advocates say that the state has fallen short in making voting easier.

Perhaps the most significant change was the state’s move, via a law signed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), to send ballot applications to registered voters who had participated in recent elections. Legislation signed by the governor also declared Nov. 3 a state holiday so that schools and government buildings could serve as polling places, so as to spread out in-person voting at more locations. Additionally, the state made changes to its early in-person voting regime to make that option more accessible during the pandemic.

Chicago-area Republicans sued to block several of the changes the state made to open up voting, but the lawsuit was rejected by a federal judge earlier this month.

Illinois already had no-excuse absentee voting in the state, though it had not been particularly widely used until now. Illinois’ last election was just before the COVID-19 outbreak had really taken hold, but the application numbers for the primary suggest that it will see a major surge in mail voting for the general. In Cook County for instance, election officials have already seen four times the absentee ballot applications over its previous record.

The deadline for applying for an absentee ballot, less than a week before the election, runs the risk of voters not receiving them in time for the election. However, local election officials are expanding their use of ballot drop boxes, and ballots postmarked by Election Day will be counted if they’re received within two weeks after the election.

The state also offers multiple options for voter registration — including an online process and the opportunity to register in-person up until Election Day.

Despite these strides, voter advocates are still frustrated that the state is only mailing ballot applications to recent voters, rather than everyone who is registered to vote. There is also not a statewide portal for requesting mail ballots online, though some counties have set up an online request option on their own.

There is a possibility that final election results will take longer to report, given the two-week grace period for accepting absentee ballots. But helping election officials deliver unofficial results quickly is the fact that they are allowed to begin processing absentee ballots as they come in.

There are three U.S. House races in Illinois that are being particularly closely watched. Democrats are trying to capture a Republican-held seat while they hold off GOP challenges to a House seat Dems only took in 2018, as well as to DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos.

New Jersey

New Jersey is conducting an almost entirely vote-by-mail election, for the first time proactively sending out ballots to registered Democrats and Republicans and ballot applications to all other eligible voters. It had a similar set-up for the July elections, including limited in-person voting sites where people could cast a provisional paper ballot.

Election officials sought to iron out in July’s contest some of the issues that arose in the state’s May municipal elections, which were the first elections New Jersey ever conducted 100 percent by mail. ne in every ten ballots in May’s election was rejected. The July primaries went more smoothly, though it took over a month for the results to be certified. That’s partially due to the large window given for ballots to be accepted — up to a week after Election Day with a timely postmark — and partially because New Jersey is still getting the hang of administering such mail-heavy elections. In the 2018 midterms, a then-record 12.3 percent of the vote was cast by mail. In July, about 87 percent of it was.

The Trump campaign, RNC and state committee have mounted a sluggish legal crusade against the state’s expanded voting access. Initially, they argued that Gov. Phil Murphy’s (D) executive order greenlighting the mostly-mail election was unlawful and that only the legislature could determine how elections were administered. That argument became moot when the Democratic-majority legislature expanded and codified Murphy’s measures in law. The Republican challengers then refocused their ire on the new law’s provisions that allow election workers to start counting ballots 10 days before Election Day and to accept ballots without a postmark up to two days afterwards. However, team Trump did not file a corresponding motion for an injunction. Even the federal judge on the case seemed surprised by the halfhearted maneuver: “I’m just not sure why this was not filed with any urgency,” he said earlier this month.

While the presidential and Senate races in New Jersey are safe Democratic bets, three House contests are extremely competitive. In all three — districts two, three and seven — Democrats flipped previously Republican seats in 2018, and are fighting to keep the districts blue. In two of them, incumbent Reps. Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) are charged with that responsibility — their races rated by the Cook Political Report a “toss up” and “leans Democratic,” respectively. The third features Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), a Democrat when he won the seat in 2018 who has since switched parties and declared his “undying support” for President Donald Trump. He’s up against Amy Kennedy (yes, those Kennedys) in the traditionally Republican district. Polls show them neck-and-neck.

Vermont

Vermont’s election should be a relative snoozefest at the federal level, with the Trump campaign not seriously contesting the state and the only federal election — for the state’s single House seat — likely safe for the Democratic incumbent. The state’s Republican governor is up for reelection after a narrow win in 2016, while neither chamber of the state legislature is seriously contested, sitting heavily on the Democratic side. But in COVID-19 terms, the state is reasonably well-prepared, though this is the first time it will be trying out a vote-by-mail plan that has survived an attack in the courts by Republicans.

To safely hold elections during the pandemic, Vermont enacted sweeping changes to create a universal mail-by-voting system that sends ballots with pre-paid postage to every Vermont voter. Vermonters can vote without notary or witness requirements, then return the ballots either in person to the local clerk or at a polling precinct, or by mail. Election officials can begin processing absentee ballots 30 days before the election, which should help them manage any potential backlog created by this year’s unprecedented surge in mail voting. Additionally, Vermont has an accessible system for voter registration that includes online registration, and the option for Election Day registration for those who vote in person.

Interestingly, the state’s Republican governor approved this absentee voting expansion, only to have a current and a former state Republican legislator attack the changes in a lawsuit. A federal judge threw the case out of court this month, allowing the secretary of state to begin sending ballots this week. The state held a primary in August, during which some 6,000 mail-in ballots were rejected due to defects, out of the record-breaking 123,000 absentee ballots that were cast. Vermont also does not accept ballots postmarked by but arriving after Election Day, and those who submit defective ballots have no opportunity to fix them after submission. Otherwise, this state’s election does not outwardly suggest major problems to come, and may have results counted and certified on the evening of Election Day — a potential rarity for states this year.

The Dem Dems Love To Dunk On: Calls Grow For Lieberman To GTFO Of GA Senate Race

Matt Lieberman, son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman, is running for Georgia Senate as a Democratic candidate – and the party wants him to get lost.

Continue reading “The Dem Dems Love To Dunk On: Calls Grow For Lieberman To GTFO Of GA Senate Race” →