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Notes from the Political Tornado Prime Badge
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When we collectively wrestle with a situation like the one Democrats are now grappling with, it is important to remember that multiple things can be true at once. I’ve spent most of the day thinking that Joe Biden has very much not ended this “drop out” question — which I kind of thought he had by Monday evening — and thinking that withdrawing in favor of Kamala Harris may be the least worst bad option available. But there are a couple dynamics I want to mention that are helpful to think about.

One issue I’ve written about is the disjuncture here between elite responses to this political tornado and the responses of ordinary voters. This turns out not to be specific enough. All of the information I’ve gotten on this is anecdotal. But some anecdotes are better and more valuable than others. It seems clear to me that quite a few ordinary Democratic voters want Biden to step aside. I’ve published some of their emails below. I really have no idea what the relative percentages are. But it’s certainly not like the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal where DC political elites rapidly developed an iron consensus that Clinton had to resign and then realized that there was an angry and large majority of regular Democrats saying absolutely f—king not.

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Readers Chime In #7

A fairly vitriolic note from TPM Reader JD

Just to be clear, I was absolutely on team Biden is the nominee and anything else is crazy before the debate. And I’ve tried to be measured in my emails since, but I’m kind of reaching my limit with the Ridin for Bidens. So this is for all the readers who think the solution is uniting behind Biden because of dominance politics or whatever: you cannot construct some facade of strength around a man who is so evidently, pitifully weak. Not in an election in a democracy where he has to actually appear in public. What do you think the rest of this campaign is going to be like after the Democrats fall in line? Just for starters, what do you think’s gonna happen with this next debate in September?

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Readers Chime in #6

From TPM Reader WH

I echo AO’s sentiment. While I agree with yesterday’s Morning Memo that the coverage has morphed into a feeding frenzy that’s lost sight of the bigger picture, the Biden team totally blew any chance they had at a reset following the debate. All of the endorsements and kumbayas came days late, and what we have seen lately feels insipid and clumsy. Leaning heavily upon the big group of Democratic voters that’s currently uneasy about Joe dropping out will not solidify the coalition, whereas the only remaining opportunity to get everybody on the same page isBiden himself making it clear that defeating Trump and his agenda is a collective priority that’s bigger than any individual. 

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Readers Chime In #5

From TPM Reader SS

I didn’t watch the debate for various reasons (was on vacation and busy with kids.).    From the clips I saw, yeah it wasn’t good.   When I heard about the subsequent rallies I relaxed a bit and went on with the rest of our vacation.  Then I came back…

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Readers Chime in #4

From TPM Reader JH

I’m writing because I’m not sure I get the panic and hysteria some of your very smart readers are showing about Biden. 

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Readers Chime in #3

From TPM Reader BR

I was hoping with AOC’s statement and the CBC backing Biden the other day we’d be converging on riding with Biden through the end.

I don’t care who the nominee is, I just want to win, and it made sense to me that Biden is it. In the last 24 hours a bunch of prominent Dems, elected and not, purposefully and not, undid the last week of progress towards that goal. That more than anything takes away my hope for the election. Biden stumbling didn’t bother me though it was his fault for creating this mess — he can, as he says, get back up — and as long as folks back him up and put in the work then we win.

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Readers Chime In #2

From TPM Reader BK

Josh, you and DK have expressed your concerns about the way the political press is covering Biden recently. 

I want to tell you that I am not reacting by way of anything Ezra Klein, or Paul Krugman, or Rob Reiner, or George Clooney or anyone else is saying. I feel certain about what I see with my own eyes: a fragile old man having trouble concentrating. I recognize that man because I too am old and I know what it feels like. I cannot take much hope from Biden’s comment that he will do his goodest, because I seriously doubt it will be goodest enough. 

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Readers Chime in #1

From TPM Reader AO

It is utter madness that the Democratic party is going to circle the wagons around Biden and think that we will all fall in line. The polling since the debate has been terrible.  He cannot win.

I love Joe.  He has accomplished so much. FFS, I have a 2024 Biden bumper sticker on my car. I give money.  I told everyone who said he was too old that they were being ageist. Then I watched the debate (or the first twenty minutes of it before I had to turn it off and go take a very long, depressed walk). 

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Perturbed at the Writers’ Room

Waking this morning, I confess to being perturbed at politics or history or whoever else is running this story. Because each time I feel like it’s coming into focus and I have an understanding of the motion of events, somehow that motion trundles into a sign post or lurches off in another direction.

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AOC & CBC

Yesterday evening I saw the first thing that made me think Joe Biden will weather this storm and remain the Democrats’ candidate for President. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appeared outside the Capitol stating clearly and categorically that Biden’s in the race and she supports him. Period. Interestingly she referred to having spoken to him “extensively” over the weekend. By my subjective impression, she didn’t say this, as I’ve seen some Democrats say things over the last week, in a way that struck me as a holding pattern remark. AOC obviously carries a lot of weight in the progressive wing of the party. But beyond that she has exceptionally good political instincts, both as to the general election as well as the mood within the congressional party. When I saw the video of her comments it was the first card I’d seen on the table in ten days which made me think this whole drama would go in President’s direction.

Then after seeing this I saw something that happened earlier in the day but which I hadn’t seen yet. (I spent much of the afternoon working on something else.) The Congressional Black Caucus came out squarely in favor of the President. This fits a historical pattern. The CBC remained steadfast for Bill Clinton in his most beleaguered days. But it also lines up with what I’d heard anecdotally about reactions to the last week among many African-American voters.

This thing has spun in so many directions I’m not inclined to make any predictions. But these developments strike me as very big deals.

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