It’s a theme TPM has tackled repeatedly this campaign cycle — elevating all the ways in which Donald Trump, his campaign, his MAGA allies in Congress and the Republican Party as a whole have repeatedly flailed in their attempts to appear as though they’re softening their stance on abortion — due to how electorally unpopular red-state bans have been — without alienating their staunchly anti-abortion religious right base.
The result has been a presidential candidate who has been a blundering mess on perhaps the single most important policy issue this cycle, instead of capitalizing on the most significant (most infamous) legacy of his one-term presidency: stacking the Supreme Court with enough right-wing conservatives to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Trump has, for almost two years now, refused to engage seriously on reproductive rights, or address his party’s extreme anti-abortion positions and aspirations for a federal abortion ban. Anytime he’s questioned on the issue, he’s shrugged it off, claiming he’s a big believer in exceptions — something he, conveniently, only started talking about after the 2022 midterms were disastrous for Republicans — and arguing that he actually fixed the issue by sending it back to the states.
The attempts at bamboozling voters into thinking he’s moderated his stance took their most dramatic turn in the form of his newfound obsession with IVF — the fertility treatment put in the crosshairs by the Dobbs ruling that’s been further threatened by the Alabama Supreme Court’s ruling this spring. That court decision, which ruled in favor of fetal personhood ideology and found that embryos are “babies,” set off a firestorm of concerns about the future of IVF in Alabama and in red states across the country. Clinics were shuttered and the state’s Republican legislature was forced to pass a measure that would protect access in the state.
This newfound rush to publicly declare support for the popular fertility treatment flies in the face of Trump’s own beliefs and the party’s recent history.
Republicans have long pushed legislation that would enshrine fetal personhood at the state level and have repeatedly, in just the past year alone, fought Democrats’ attempts to pass federal IVF protections in Congress. But all that be damned, says Trump, who has, somehow, decided to unironically coin himself the “father of IVF” as some sort of insulting, creepy consolation prize for putting the procedure in harm’s way in the first place.
All that is to say, Trump waited until Election Day to weigh in honestly on the issue:
"Just stop talking about that,” Trump told reporters after being asked for a second time how he voted on Florida's abortion rights amendment.
— Lalee Ibssa (@LaleeIbssa) November 5, 2024
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The Dems are talking about state-level “Trump abortion bans,” and they know a second term for Trump means there will be at least a de facto national ban imposed by the right. And some GOP women seem to be quietly voting for Harris because of it.
The question that hangs over this election is how far will the Supreme Court go in tipping the scales of a close election toward Donald Trump.
As one poster put it (ME) in regard to a recent decision allowing Virginia to change its rules and purge about 1,500 registered voters in spite of clear federal law not allowing a state to make changes to its election laws within 90 days of an election, the Supreme Court will “lift a finger” to help Trump win.
We see that in the most important state of Pennsylvania that the courts are allowing purging of what could be a substantial and determinative number of mail-in votes for inconsequential errors such as dates when the ballot has a post marked date.
In 2020 the U.S. Supreme Court did nothing because to have changed the result would have required it to invalidate the count in at least 3 states or instead of “lifting a finger” it would have needed to “move heaven and earth”.
So that is where we are, to help Trump we know the Supreme Court will lift a finger but is likely not going to move heaven and earth.
The problem I see with the Court taking action in Pennsylvania is that Democrats control both the executive branch and one House of the legislature. Therefore it would be difficult for Republican IN-Justices to abuse their power as Democrats have recourse through power of their own in state Government.
Michigan, where the Democrats control all levels of elected Government, is even more immune from Supreme Court partisan rulings as they would fly in the face of state actions.
While Pennsylvania is a possibility because Republicans do control one branch of the legislature the most likely state that the U.S. Supreme Court can, if it will overturn the national result, get involved is Wisconsin.
Wisconsin has currently the most jerrymandered legislative map favoring Republicans ever in any state. While that map has been found by the state Supreme Court to be unconstitutional and new districts have been drawn for this election, at best Democrats could take control of the State House as only 50%of the State jerrymandered Republican senate is on the ballot in 2024 and it will be 2026 before the State Senate will be not Republican jerrymandered.
The problem is even if Democrats take the Wisconsin State House in 2024 and currently have all state wide elected offices including Secretary of State, Attorney General and Governor, it will be the current jerrymandered House that will still be in power as the new State Government will not be sworn in until January when it comes to this election.
This give the Republican first and only U.S. Supreme Court two possible states that if the election is close, to try and steal it like in 2000.
Wisconsin through the “independent legislative theory” that 3 Supreme Court IN -Justices, Gorsuch, Thomas and Alito have embraced as a means of Republicans holding power. I know I do not what to bet on 2 of the other 3 Republican IN-Justices, Trump appointees Comey-Barret and Cavanaugh and Chief IN-Justice Roberts to save democracy.
All 6 Republican IN-Justices are down with throwing away ballots in Pennsylvania to help Trump.
So my hope is not only that like Al Gore, Kamala Harris wins the electoral vote. I am hoping that unlike Al Gore, Harris wins by a margin that requires more than one, and perhaps more than two states, so that the victory cannot be stolen from the American people by unelected partisan judges whose only real concern is for power and care little for the constitution or democracy.
Some cuteness for you all.
Cat. (No Mom in the photo this time.)