Josh Marshall
It may not get a lot of attention. In a way it doesn’t matter since I don’t think anyone cares that George Santos going to do serious time in prison. But in addition to the mistake he made not resigning soon after the original New York Times report last December, he made another big mistake staying in office until this week’s House Ethics report was released. Resignation from office is always a big chit in plea negotiations. There are both good public policy reasons for this (corrupt pols should be removed from office) and it appeals to prosecutors’ inherent desire for a ‘win’. Regardless of the motivation, it’s something a politician can agree to give up and get something in return.
Now it’s too late – even if in theory Santos cut a deal today ahead of getting expelled. It’s like he held on to a hot shot stock portfolio until it dropped down to penny stock levels. It’s now extremely likely he’ll be expelled from office at the end of this month. Prosecutors know that. Resigning in the face of near certain expulsion isn’t worth anything.
Israel’s Politics of Denial 
As I’ve engaged with TPM Readers in response to yesterday’s Backchannel post and other recent posts on the same topic, I’ve been thinking again of the ‘big picture’ behind everything that is happening right now in Israel-Palestine. When I wrote about Students for Justice in Palestine a few days ago, I noted that that post was really more about North America than the Middle East. Activism frequently, although perhaps not always, tends to be more ideological at a distance than it is on the ground. People on the ground need to make practical and daily decision about living their lives. But as we watch this chaos and carnage and suffering unfolding from a distance, what remains the case is whatever Israel is trying to accomplish militarily, it will not amount to much if it isn’t followed by some political settlement. “Settlement” in this context probably sets up expectations too big and immediate, so much that it becomes self-defeating. So let’s say the beginnings of one. Because Israeli politics for the last fifteen years at least has been based on denial.
Read MoreIsrael’s Channel 12 released a new poll today. It told largely the same story every poll has told since the days just after the October 7th massacres: a big drop for the Likud, a huge jump for Benny Gantz’s National Unity party. Stepping back the current government loses about twenty of its seats while the opposition jumps to roughly 70. Again, this is broadly consistent with all the other polls over the last six weeks. I’ve noted before that while this is a rare occasion where the head of government hasn’t received any kind of rally-round-the-flag effect. Quite the contrary. But if we define rally-round-the-flag as rallying around the country, the war effect or national unity, there is overwhelming evidence of that.
But looking at this and other polls, I think we can make an additional observation.
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History, Its Importance and Irrelevance – Plus Some Books
Today I wanted to share with you a few thoughts about history — both the history of the Middle East and the story that is consuming a lot of our politics in the US in these final weeks of 2023, as well as history generally, its centrality and sometimes its irrelevance.
I’m going to cover this in two ways. I’m going to give you a list of books that are helpful to understanding the origins of all of this. They’re both very good and helpful reads. They also shed some light on where I come from in all this because I come at this grounded in a specific part of the historiography and with my own set of personal and ideological commitments. The other part is my recent email conversation with fellow community member, TPM Reader ME. I’ll start with that.
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History from the River to the Sea and Across the Ocean
This may seem like old news to some people. But I wanted to go back and reread some of the initial reactions to the massacres in southern Israel on October 7th. They are notable in themselves. And I read at least some versions of them in real time. But I felt the need to reread them now to understand the progression of events in North America over the last 5 weeks if not necessarily in Israel/Palestine.
National Students for Justice in Palestine is the national umbrella group which supports and coordinates messaging for over 200 Students for Justice in Palestine campus groups across North America.
On the day after the October 7th attacks, the organization issued this statement as either their first or one of their first statements on the massacres in southern Israel.
Read MoreKate Riga is giving us the play by play on Speaker Mike Johnson’s attempt to do exactly what Kevin McCarthy did while not paying the price McCarthy did for doing it. As we’re seeing, he’ll almost certainly pull it off. The House Freedom Caucus guys know he’s one of them, at least genetically related if not identical. That’s helping. They also realize they need to give him some time to get his footing before tossing him overboard. But what stands out most is House Republicans’ great reluctance to shut the government down – more reluctance than I expected. New boss, old boss, the same dynamics govern in the spring, the fall and now in the winter.
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Pretty remarkable things emerging in the House. It appears that Speaker Johnson can’t move his own compromise plan with Republican votes. Or actually he can’t pass the rule that governs how to bring up his bill. So now he’ll now go back to relying on Democratic votes to get it done. He’s already back to the McCarthy rules – what is it? a three weeks in? The difference, presumably, is that House hardliners know he can’t and they’ll give him a pass. They won’t make him pay any price for passing something they claim is unacceptable with Democratic votes. Because he’s their guy.
Not clear how this evolving. But a pretty decent chance we’re looking at a new MO: House hardliners remain pure and Democrats take on the responsibility for actually governing.