Politico and other outlets this morning are reporting the Nancy Pelosi has ‘voiced support’ for the ‘open convention’ approach to replacing Joe Biden if he steps aside. I find this more than a little surprising. To put it mildly.

Two thoughts occur to me.

The first is that in a chaotic and fevered moment like this you simply can’t believe everything you read. I don’t mean the stories are fake. I mean there’s a huge appetite for information and often not enough to fill it. So you get shards of information either fourth hand or badly out of context. This applies especially to a lot of the ‘King Lear’ reporting you’re currently seeing about Biden and the various things he’s ‘thinking’. Much of this reporting is really people on the 2nd or 3rd ring of Biden’s circle of advisors trying to figure out what’s happening or relaying what they’ve heard or surmised. Then this gets turned into a story with an official imprimatur and it’s rapidly woven into an official narrative of what’s happening. Suddenly there are lovers and haters of what ‘happened’ when it’s really not clear the thing happened in the first place.

In this case, though, the reporting seems more specific. Politico says this came up at a July 10th meeting of the California Democratic House delegation. In a discussion of next steps if Biden steps aside, Pelosi was apparently against anything that looked like party bosses making the decision rather than its voters.

I wanted to flag to your attention another data point that suggests that reader of ours was on to something when he posited that Tom Crooks, 20 year old who tried to shoot Donald Trump, was more in the line of school shooters and mass shooters than political assassins as we’ve conventionally understood them. CNN now reports that Crooks had been googling information about Ethan Crumbley, a 2021 school shooter, who’s parents were later prosecuted over his murders. Indeed, the FBI seems to be quite literally moving toward this theory of Tom Crooks’ murders.

We’re now in our third day of this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. We hit our goal for yesterday which was to reach $150k. (I was a bit surprised and very relieved.) We have a much more modest one for today which to hit $175k by the end of today. We’re currently at $161k. These goals aren’t arbitrary. We’ve learned over the years where we have to get each day to hit our goal. Anyway, this annual drive is always really important to TPM’s vitality and future. So please consider making a contribution if you haven’t already. Just click right here. If you’re flush like so many others in the Biden economy make it big. But if not even a buck or two pushes us in the right direction. Please accept our appreciation in advance and thank you for being readers, members and contributors.

Here’s a small update on the lack of any word from federal law enforcement or hospital officials on the what and how of the injury Donald Trump suffered last Saturday in western Pennsylvania when a 20-year-old gunman tried to shoot him. As I’ve noted, Pennsylvania State Police initially told reporters on the scene that Trump had been struck by shards of glass. Then Trump himself said he’d been hit with a bullet and that was the end of the matter. There’s small detail from a local news report from last Sunday that suggests it as at least plausible that the initial report was correct, that Trump was struck by some flying debris.

A report from local TV station WPXI at 4:50 PM Sunday said this (emphasis added) …

We’re on day two of this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. In our fifth year with the Fund we know there are key benchmarks we need to hit on certain days to be able to meet our goal. A really big one is hitting $150,000 by the end of today. We’re currently just over $130k $139k $147k. If you’re planning on contributing to the drive this year it would be great if you could make today the moment. Our new payment system makes it super easy. No more than a minute or two tops. Just take a few moments out from your browsing routine and click right here. We thank you.

This is a two-part post, with two related but very distinct topics.

It looks like there’s a really good chance we’re going to get a change at the top of the ticket. Big, unprecedented, historic development. This isn’t to advocate a point or change anyone’s mind. I simply think it’s important to say this so everyone understands it. We have a lot of assumptions about the November election, we have a lot of gut instincts, certainly, since the debate. But the only thing we have that is somewhat objective is polling data. I think a lot of people have this idea that Biden is dead in the water and basically can’t win and that is the backdrop for their thinking about changing candidates. That may be true. But by the data there’s really little to no evidence for that. Biden’s behind, but not by much. He’s the underdog, certainly. But the most decisive part of the election season hasn’t even happened yet. When Adam Schiff or some backbencher in the House says they’ve determined Biden has no path to the presidency or cannot win, that is their hunch and they have no more insight into the matter than you, a close follower of politics, does. That is a fact.

We’re off to a solid start to this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. We just hit $122,000 toward our goal of $500,000. We’ve got a ton of news today and I want to get back to that. So I’ll try to keep it brief. The drive is super important. It is. It’s a critical part of what keeps us going. If you value what we do and it’s important to you that we keep doing it please consider contributing today. The link is right here. If you want more information about why it’s important click here. It matters a lot and we really appreciate all those who’ve contributed over the first 24 hours.

As you know, I’ve been pressing the simple point that we don’t have any information about the injury to the former president’s ear or what caused it other than a social media post from him on Truth Social a few hours after the Saturday afternoon shooting. That’s not just inadequate. It’s frankly bizarre. Someone did just flag to me that two days ago the Times made a very oblique reference to this in an article devoted to Congressman Ronny Jackson’s description of changing the gauze on Trump’s ear on his flight to Milwaukee (“Former White House Doctor Describes Tending To Trump’s Wounded Ear“). That article says in passing: “So far, only Mr. Trump has described his injuries; his team has not provided any formal medical briefing to the public since the shooting.” And that’s it.

Thank you for taking the time to read this note.

Today we are kicking off our fifth annual TPM Journalism Fund drive.

We plan these drives months in advance. So let me start by saying we had no way of knowing that we’d be launching in the midst of what has been perhaps the most chaotic, bewildering, and often agonizing three-week stretch in our political life in recent memory. After we’d processed launching during the post-debate frenzy, then came last weekend’s Trump rally shooting. I say this simply to note that we’re fully cognizant of the fact that it may seem jarring to be holding a drive in this current news moment. But in an odd way, it all fits with our drive’s focus this year, which is on “preparing TPM for what’s next.”

The success of our drive last year made possible all sorts of big, exclusive stories — like our expose of SACR, the Trumpist secret society of white Christian men prepping for a “national divorce,” the Ken Chesebro document trove that shed new light on the fake electors scheme, our profile of a tough-talking sheriff taking on the neo-nazis who surged into central Florida, or our look, before anyone else was looking, at the surreal, extreme post-2020 world of the man who became the GOP nominee for governor of North Carolina. It’s also made possible what I believe has been unparalleled, deeply knowledgeable coverage of the Trump trials from Josh Kovensky and of the right-wing judiciary from Kate Riga.

I’m sure we’ll have more big exclusives like these over the next year. But when we say “preparing for what’s next,” we mean something slightly different, more expansive. At this moment, we very much don’t know what’s next. I don’t mean the lead-up to the November election. No one knows what the next three and a half months hold, but our team has been preparing for a campaign in which literally almost anything is possible for months. We’re ready for all of that. I’m talking about what comes after that, which is very much up in the air at this moment.

So what we mean is fortifying and strengthening TPM for the long haul, to be able to react, grapple with, make sense of any number of future possibilities. In the last three weeks, especially, I’ve had so many TPM readers reach out to me and say they’ve found the site as valuable and as necessary as it’s ever been precisely now — not just for our efforts to explain, as best as we’re able, the unprecedented, but to do so with a unique steadiness and transparency about our reasoning. While I’m admittedly biased, I believe TPM is a unique beacon in the journalistic firmament, an oasis for our community and a source of news and insights that spread far beyond our virtual pages. We want to make TPM strong enough — financially, editorially, legally — for whatever comes next.

That’s what this year’s drive is about. So I hope you will be able to contribute in whatever amount you feel able to. Let me add that in addition to keeping TPM robust and vital, the Journalism Fund is what provides the resources that allow us to provide free memberships to TPM Readers who cannot afford a subscription as well as to any registered student. Last week we held our first of what we hope will be many TPM community happy hours in New York and in other cities. And a reader came up to me and told me she had one of these free memberships and thanked me personally. I told her that was very nice of her to say but that it was our pleasure and, really, the thanks goes to our larger community, which makes them possible. But it was gratifying to hear because this part of our financial model is part of what makes me proud of what we do and of our community.

Publications around the country are shuttering, retrenching, laying off employees, getting sold to private equity funds. We’re not. This year, like last year, our goal is to raise $500,000 for the drive. Last year I made clear that it was critical that we reach that number. And we did. For reasons tied specifically to 2023, the wolf was truly at the door. And that is not the case this year. But let’s be honest: the wolf lives in a co-op down the street from TPM. He’s never far away. So this year’s drive remains very important. We aim to and believe we can strengthen the financial footing of the organization, get ready for what comes next and even modestly expand. And that’s the spirit in which we’re coming to you today

If you’re ready to join us in this year’s drive just click right here.

Thank you so much in advance.