8:37 p.m.: We’re still seeing just the first results out of Michigan. Too early to draw any real conclusions. But some benchmarks are helpful. In 2012, 2016 and 2020, “uncommitted” got around 20,000 votes. In 2012 that was 11% of the votes. That’s a helpful benchmark since that was the last time an incumbent Democratic President was on the ballot.

One of the numbers crunchers I follow points to 17% for uncommitted as a threshold below which you could say the Gaza/uncommitted push has failed vs over that and it has some success. The best hints I’m seeing have it right about there and maybe a point or two higher. So modest success but some success. But again, that’s tentative so far. It’s difficult to model this since there aren’t obvious baselines from earlier elections.

We’ll know more soon.

One TPM Reader sent me this new article on Rep. Ro Khanna jumping into the complex and perilous situation for Democrats in Michigan. The primary there is this week. But this is really about the general election. The article is fuzzy on a number of points but the gist is that Khanna seems to have taken on the role of mediator between disaffected groups in Michigan and the Biden White House. And after a series of meetings in the state Khanna says that absent a dramatic change of policy — by which he means a permanent ceasefire — Biden cannot win Michigan. That’s the gist of the article.

A few things come to mind to me about this article and this message.

For everyone who enjoyed our recent series on The Chesebro Document Trove and our exclusive on Ken Chesebro’s sock puppet Twitter account (BadgerPundit) I wanted to flag this follow up on Badger Pundit from CNN, which kinda sorta credits TPM breaking the story, even if the reference and link are buried pretty far down in the piece. (But seriously, who’s complaining!?!?) In any case, thank you to our members for supporting our original reporting and independent journalism. And if you’re not a member yet please consider joining our team.

The Nikki Haley campaign tells Fox News that the campaign has taken in $1 million in contributions online since her defeat last night in South Carolina. But the Koch Network, which put its ample funding apparatus behind Haley’s campaign last fall, announced that it’s suspending that support and shifting its focus to congressional races. They haven’t soured on Haley. They say they just don’t think more money can make Haley’s nomination any more likely. By that standard, of course, this has been clear for months. What’s not entirely clear is how much immediate effect that will have. Koch had already significantly scaled back its spending on Haley after she fell short in New Hampshire.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL): “IVF is something that is so critical to a lot of couples. It helps them breed great families.”

Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss visited CPAC this weekend and announced that her record-breaking 50 day stint as Prime Minister had been brought to an early end by none other than the British “deep state.” It’s another illustration of how one of America’s many cultural exports, or soft power, is now Trumpism. In most ways early 21st century revanchist nationalism really began in Europe, building on existing parties like the French National Front but taking it in significantly new directions. But Trumpian branding, if not always the substance, has mostly won out.

The networks announced Donald Trump’s victory tonight in South Carolina shortly after the polls closed. The headlines speak of a decisive victory. The Times reported Trump “trounced” Haley, landing a “crushing blow,” a “big win” over Haley who “lost decisively.” But as I write 87% of the vote is in and Donald Trump has 60% of the vote to Nikki Haley’s 39.4%.

Sen. Steve Daines (R) of Montana heads the Senate Republican campaign committee, which today sent out a memo to all its candidates instructing them to vigorously defend IVF fertility treatments which the Alabama Supreme Court just effectively outlawed in the state. Donald Trump put out a statement so wildly endorsing IVF that he appears all but ready to undergo IVF himself just to make the point. But Sen. Daines himself recently cosponsored (along with numerous Senate colleagues) a law based on precisely the same theory used by the Alabama court.