Josh Marshall
It certainly *seems* – and I stress *seems* – like Republicans have finally managed to thread the Speaker needle and will elect Mike Johnson of Louisiana in a couple hours. When the caucus did a roll call late yesterday evening a few voted present but none voted against him. But 20 or so weren’t there. Those who were put on a big show of unity in a late evening press conference and the consensus seems to be that it’s happening. There’s a bit of uncertainty created by that non-trivial number not showing up for that final key vote. But no members have made any announcements or moves overnight or this morning that suggest they’re going to oppose Johnson on the floor or take any steps to halt his momentum.
My best guess is it probably happens. But given the events of the last three weeks we can’t be certain until we see the actual vote.
How did they finally pull this off?
Read More
The Party of Rule-Breaking Trundles Toward Its Inevitable End Point 
Eight years ago Will Saletan said, “The GOP is a failed state. Donald Trump is its warlord.” There’s probably no short summary, phrase or aphorism I’ve repeated more times on TPM. Because it’s that good. Today we’re seeing another permutation and illustration of that enduring reality.
Yesterday and today the GOP went back to the well to find a completely new set of Speaker candidates and, they hoped, a new Speaker designee. After multiple rounds, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota was elected as the caucus’s choice. He then asked for a roll call of who would actually vote for him on the House floor. He came up more than twenty votes short.
Was there a writers’ strike on this new episode of the Caucus series? Because this sounds like a crib from an episode that ran the weekend before last when just the same thing happened to Steve Scalise. Sure enough within an hour or so we’re now hearing chatter that only Rep. Mike Johnson (LA), the guy who lost in the final vote, could get to 217. So only the guy who just lost can hope to win. Got it? Again, it’s a script cribbed from ten days ago.
Read More
Normie Saviors and the Long Hand of Donald Trump
I mentioned in this week’s podcast that the current state of the House GOP Speaker debacle-ship reminds me of the day Denny Hastert became Speaker. Hard on the heels of a disappointing (Clinton-Lewinsky) scandal mid-term, in rapid succession one Speaker and one Speaker designate were blown out of the water by extra-marital affairs. In a rush to safety, as the financial journalists have it, Rep. Denny Hastert was elected Speaker essentially by affirmation. The one thing Republicans wanted more than anything was a return to calm and Hastert’s biography and demeanor offered it. Certainly someone as frumpy and avuncular as normie embodiment Hastert wouldn’t be off cheating on his wife or bringing the caucus into disrepute. So Hastert it was.
Obviously, it didn’t turn out quite as expected. But that’s how it looked at the time.
Read More
On the Brink
I want to note several interconnected developments in the news coming out of the Middle East today.
Already battered by his ongoing criminal prosecution and attempted judicial coup, Benjamin Netanyahu’s standing with the Israeli public appears to have been shattered by the October 7th massacres in southern Israel. In such a perilous position, Netanyahu’s allies in and out of government have been spreading various stab-in-the-back type storylines seeking to evade responsibility for the events of October 7th.
The best way I can describe this is that Israel has its own version of the Fox News-rooted right wing big lie machine that Americans are familiar with here. That has been in overdrive for the last three weeks. It has included the government briefing reporters against the country’s security establishment, placing the blame for the massacres squarely on the IDF and Shin Bet, the country’s domestic intelligence and security service.
Read MoreAccording to Israeli media reports, the Mossad and Shin Bet (Israel’s international and domestic intelligence agencies) have created a new unit with the Hebrew acronym Nili, to track down and kill all the Hamas fighters who participated in the October 7th incursion into southern Israel which left more than 1,400 Israelis dead, mostly civilians.
According to Israel the attack was carried out by the Nukhba (elite) Force, a naval commando unit of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassem Brigades, Hamas’s military wing.
Press reports suggest the attack was carried out by roughly 2,500 Nukhba fighters.
The Inside Story of How Jim Jordan Broke the Model, Didn’t Become Speaker and Decided That was Fine
There’s an aspect of the Jim Jordan Speaker Drama that hasn’t gotten enough attention. It’s really the central element of the story. Over the years I’ve argued that the post-2010 GOP caucus operates by a consistent set of informal rules. What looks like drama and dysfunction is actually in its own way a very stable and functional system.
The congressional party is controlled and run by the hard right minority variously called the Tea Party or Freedom Caucus. But they are a bit too hot for national public consumption. They also rely on the idea that their far right policy agenda has broad public support but is held back by a corrupt/bureaucratic establishment. For both of these reasons a system was developed in which this far right group runs the caucus, but from the background, while it is nominally run by a mainstreamish Republican leader. Under John Boehner, Paul Ryan or Kevin McCarthy this basic dynamic remained more or less the same. It works for everybody because the Freedom Party calls the shots while the party maintains broad electoral viability via figureheadish leadership.
Read More
Jordan CryMore-onistes
Let me try to briefly up date you on where Jim Jordan’s zombie Speakership seems to be. As you know, he lost a Speakership vote Tuesday with 20 Republicans in opposition and then lost another yesterday with 22 votes in opposition. In the second outing, a couple switched to supporting him but more flipped in the other direction. After that he remained committed to forcing a third vote even though there was a strong consensus that his losing ground in the second vote meant his bid was over.
A few assumptions and developments are operating behind the scenes.
Read MoreI said yesterday that this week’s podcast would be coming Thursday, today, not Wednesday. Well, that was fake news. Like I said yesterday, it’s coming tomorrow. But today that means Friday not Thursday. Just to give you a little behind the scenes: Kate is one of our two Capitol Hill reporters. So the gist is we’re a bit hostage at the moment to Jim Jordan’s whims and tantrums as he keeps trying to hold votes in his increasingly fantastical Speakership bid. So bear with us, we’ll have the podcast to you soon.
A new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll finds that 70% of New Jersey residents want Sen. Bob Menendez to resign. Just 16% want him to serve out his term.
This is when you’re holding on to office to trade it for something in a plea bargain.
This week’s podcast will come one day later than usual. So don’t expect it today but it will be on your devices tomorrow afternoon.