We’re now bearing down on crunch time in the debt-ceiling hostage-taking drama of 2023. Virtually all of the establishment press is playing to form and treating the situation as a more or less ordinary matter of legislative jockeying and negotiation. That’s a problem but not a surprise. We’ll discuss that in another post. But this morning I want to talk about something different, the story that most commentators aren’t grasping about where this situation is headed. It’s a set of assumptions that is leading most of D.C. — and, it would appear, most of Wall Street — to miss what’s coming.

We’re now at 628 642 new members on the last day of our annual drive. We made it to our goal of 500 and now passed the revised goal of 600. Huge thanks to everyone who has joined over the last 30 days. We don’t want to be greedy but we want to add as many more as we can on the final day.

The truth is, it’s not greedy. The 500 number was a plausible reach goal we thought put us in a position to have the ship not taking on water and moving in the right direction over the course of the year. Joe Ragazzo and I especially sighed a big sigh of relief when we saw that we’d probably hit that goal.

With the the wave of new media site closures and layoffs just over the last week there’s been a little mini-chorus in the media debate of, “well those TPM folks really had the secret sauce, knew how to make it work, yada yada.” Well, appreciate the congrats and f— yeah and thank you, media types. But it’s a serious slog every day, running out single after single, I assure you. So driving that number higher still makes a big difference for us. So thanks to everyone who’s joined and if you’re still thinking about it make today the day. Click here.

This is the final weekday of our annual TPM membership drive. We’re trying to get to 600 new sign ups for the drive. We’re currently at 587. Just 13 more to get there. If you’re ready here is the link. Thank you in advance and thank you to everyone who has joined us this month.

We’re coming to the end of our annual TPM membership drive. If you’ve been thinking about it but haven’t yet, I want to ask you to take a moment today and join us. We need your support and membership. It’s what powers our operation. We’re doing exciting things right now and we’re moving forward when everyone else seems to be shuttering or laying people off. So please take a moment and join our operation and be part of what we do every day. Just click right here.

There’s a new filing out in the Jack Teixeira case, written up here by the Times. It’s a government motion to keep Teixeira locked up while awaiting trial. The government argues, unsurprisingly, that Teixeira is a major flight risk and that he still knows lots of information that could cause grave damage if shared with hostile foreign powers. But what is new and newsworthy if not entirely surprising is that Teixeira’s record suggests he was carrying most of the red flags we’d expect for a future mass shooter. You can see the filing here.

As the government filing explains, Teixeira was suspended from high school in 2018 when a classmate “overheard him make remarks about weapons, including Molotov cocktails, guns at the school and racial threats.” Later that year he was denied a firearms identification card because of the local police department’s concerns about his threats and suspension at the high school.

For the first time I’ve read an article that presents at least the outlines of a convincing account of why Fox fired Tucker Carlson. The Times account, published an hour ago, isn’t dramatically different from other accounts we’ve seen over the last three days, at least not at first glance. So it may seem odd that I’m putting it in a different category. But on my read at least it provides a degree of specificity about the precise chain of events and who did what, when, that is different from all the earlier stories.

The Washington Post just published its own “why Tucker was canned” story.

Now it’s a mix of the endless controversy, Tucker’s hubris and his still redacted criticisms of Fox brass contained in discovery material from the Dominion case. But now the kicker is Ukraine. Rupert Murdoch got fed up with Carlson’s relentlessly pro-Russian commentary about the Ukraine war and his withering attacks on Ukraine itself. Even more, key Republican senators had had enough; and they were talking to Murdoch about it directly.

We’re about to have a Speaker Week Vote-O-Rama replay in which Speaker Kevin McCarthy will try to pass a pseudo-budget to kick start negotiations with Joe Biden over the debt ceiling, despite the fact that Biden has made clear he’s not going to negotiate over the debt ceiling at all. Biden has made clear he won’t negotiate but he’s definitely not even going to get into it until McCarthy says what it is is he wants. This pseudo-budget is the bill of particulars in which McCarthy says what he — or rather the Freedom Caucus — wants. As I said, it’s the Speakership vote all over again.

Following all this? Well, as you can tell it’s pretty convoluted. There’s a lot of kabuki and signaling wrapped around what should be an ordinary budgetary process. Because it’s so convoluted I wanted to provide some big picture points to keep in mind as this unfolds.

Kate Riga and I discussed this during the podcast today — for scheduling reasons we recorded one day early this week. But so many of you have asked me this question that I wanted to address it here in the Ed Blog. The question is this: Is it possible that Tucker Carlson’s termination was a non-public part of Fox’s settlement agreement with Dominion? I have no inside information. But I’m pretty sure the answer is no.

I’ve mentioned a few times my love/hate relationship with the media reporting of Dylan Byers and Eriq Gardner, the glitz media columnist for the prestige newsletter bouthemoth (boutique+behemoth) Puck News. It’s all leveraged buy-outs and acquisitions and gossip about top personalities and nothing much about journalism or the law of journalism. But, I thought, if they’re ever going to come through for me it’s going to be on the Carlson/Fox story. So I checked out what they had with no little expectation.