I’ve already written about the narcissism/radicalization cycle that took hold of Elon Musk at some point for whatever reasons and has been accelerating at a rapid pace since he finalized his acquisition of Twitter six weeks ago. It keeps accelerating, and in two distinct but interrelated ways I would like to note.

The first is that Musk is now in near constant dialogue with the most rabid conspiracy theorists and anti-Semites in the digital space. He’s jumped head first into the “globalist”/pedophile vortex which was at the heart of the “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory and later the entire QAnon movement. He now accuses former Twitter management of intentionally allowing the platform it to become a breeding ground of pedophilia and child sex trafficking. He claims he’s shutting the offending accounts down after previous management refused to do so. These accusations have become so totalizing that yesterday Musk drew a rebuke from former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, who has been one of Musk’s bigger supporters during the takeover.

Let me return again to what I think is the key point with Kyrsten Sinema, something I think most of D.C. press misses. The conventional wisdom here is that Senate Democrats need Sinema’s seat to have any hope of holding the Senate. They have a one-seat majority and three Democrats are up for reelection in clearly red states. There’s no margin for error. So they need to swallow their misgivings and line up behind her. I don’t have a good read on where the Senate Democratic leadership is on this or the various stakeholder groups that are involved in this kind of decision. But I don’t think I need to. Because I don’t think it will be their call. Sinema is simply too reviled by Arizona Democrats to make this work.

An Arizona TPM Reader checks in on Kyrsten Sinema. Along those lines, a new poll out today shows her current favorability rating at 18%–5% among Democrats, 25% among Republicans and independents. She wouldn’t clear 10% in a three person race.

From our reader …

What’s good about writing to you about this topic is that I don’t have to do the work of convincing you that Sinema’s antics were not working among any voting group. You figured this out months ago.

One of the things that frustrates me about the self-appointed smart guy conversation about politics is that there are too many commentators who think that there is an untapped majority of voters out there that matches their exact degree of social liberalism and fiscal conservatism. You’d think the rise of Trump and a lot of what’s gone on in politics would have disabused them of that, but no such luck. I haven’t had a lot of time to delve into the commentary on this morning’s news, but I’m imagining there are blog posts being written about how brilliant this is despite the obvious signs that it doesn’t seem to have earned her fans among actual Arizona voters.

I first heard about Kyrsten Sinema’s party switch this morning and I thought, Holy Crap! I didn’t expect her to join the GOP. This reaction was largely based on my first seeing the Axios headline “Senate Earthquake.” Only it’s not an earthquake and she’s not joining the GOP.

First I saw the key news that she would not caucus with Senate Republicans, and then the real tell — that she will continue to caucus with the Democrats. In other words, she’s going to do the same thing Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine already do with much less drama and preening.

Literally nothing changes. It’s still a 51 to 49 Senate, except the Democrats’ 51 senators are now made up of three nominal independents rather than 2. That ain’t no earthquake.

I was reminded when putting together notes for the preceding posts that a number of the big Republican billionaire megadonors have announced they won’t be supporting Trump in 2024 — the Mercer family, Ronald Lauder, Stephen Schwarzman et al. This billionaire primary for Republican candidates is a whole issue in itself. But for now, I wouldn’t put much stock in these refusals. Back in 2016 most of the GOP megadonors were against Trump before they were for him. If he’s the nominee again they’ll certainly fall in line. And they may well do it even before he’s nominee.

The pestering and hectoring, the warnings of doom and promised ecstasy, of Democratic fundraising emails has become something between an inside joke and a genuine annoyance for a lot of the Democratic faithful. I’ve seen a few comments or even articles since Nov. 8 saying that now that the midterm is done … well, something must be done about it. I’ve never had a clear read about just how much people are up in arms about this. After all, they keep sending them because they work.

But there’s a more specific issue to be discussed.

Remember that 51 senators is substantially different from 50. Big picture, 50 Senate seats plus Vice President Harris’s tie-breaking vote made Chuck Schumer the Majority Leader. He and his caucus controlled the calendar, what came to a vote. But the committees had equal numbers of Democratic and Republican members. That meant issuing subpoenas required agreement between the parties. Nominees couldn’t be voted out of committee on straight partisan votes. There were workarounds for some of these issues. But they were complicated and time-consuming. So in addition to decreasing the clout of Senators Manchin and Sinema and positioning Democrats marginally better for retaining the Senate in 2024, the difference between 50 and 51 senators is a big deal on the basic nuts and bolts of running the Senate, getting judicial nominees confirmed and more.

Something came home to me last night that I’ve realized for a while but crystalized for me in a new way. If you’re into elections and want to watch results on election night you should never watch them on TV. Ever. If you were watching last night’s election on TV you probably had the sense the race was a close run thing with the lead bouncing back and forth, with Herschel Walker possibly mounting a comeback after weeks of coverage that made Raphael Warnock appear a favorite to win a full term. If you watched the results through my curated Twitter feed of election number crunchers, though, you saw something very different: from the very first returns it looked likely — and then with growing clarity — that the results would roughly bear out the polls, which showed Warnock with a modest but significant lead. The final results this morning show Warnock beating Walker by just shy of three percentage points, almost on the dot of what the consensus of polls predicted.

I’m a bit of a broken record on this. But it’s true enough to bear some repeating. Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly are two incredibly able politicians. Until 2018 and 2020, Democrats hadn’t been elected to Senate seats in Arizona and Georgia for decades. They’ve now both done it twice, in two consecutive cycles and under dramatically different political conditions. Of course, these aren’t feats of superhuman political powers. This is the direction of these states. But they are only on the cusp of being purple states. To chalk up two consecutive wins you need to be doing everything right. And both of them did.

9:36 PM: Okay, the man has spoken. Dave Wasserman of The Cook Report says it’s done: Warnock defeats Walker.

9:29 PM: I think Warnock continues to have the inside track. The uncertainty is that we don’t know precisely the makeup of the votes in those blue counties where lots of votes are left. Those could be heavily same day and actually lean to Walker. So there’s still some uncertainty. But it’s a significant uncertainty in an overall context where signs really point to a Walker win. In North Georgia Walker has put up numbers he needs to win. But in the rest of the state the pattern is Warnock making modest but consistent gains on his November totals. It would be a surprise if that pattern didn’t continue in metro Atlanta. But who knows?

9:06 PM: Not clear to me how much visibility there is into these early counts out of the Atlanta area counties into what’s election day and early. You could speculate that they’ve only counted the Warnock-leaning earlies so far and next up is Walker. But I kinda doubt that. I think this is Warnock’s unless something wildly unexpected happens.

9:01 PM: We finally got a big chunk of the vote in in DeKalb County. Still only around ~50% reporting. But starting to show the numbers that put Warnock ahead. At this point this is where the remaining votes are, this and similar counties. So even though Warnock’s overall lead is razor thin it should grow.

8:37 PM: Have said it over and over. But it’s still the same. Warnock probably wins tonight. But we don’t have the votes in metro Atlanta. That will tell the story. Walker needs a strong showing in metro Atlanta, relative to expectations. Doesn’t seem likely. But run-offs are unpredictable. Just to give a sense 5% of the vote in in DeKalb, 55% in Fulton, 53% in Gwinnett, in Cobb 23%.