8:32 PM: One of the people I follow just put together the numbers and found that in all five counties with more than 10k total votes Warnock is bettering his November margins. That’s a clear indicator.

8:27 PM: It’s hard to do a methodical analysis in real time. But I keep seeing completed red-rural counties where Walker is falling off his margins from November. The differences are quite small, a percentage point or two. But remember, he came in second in November. So falling back is bad. That’s not the story in every county. But it’s more than not from what I can see. The picture seems to be crystallizing in Warnock’s direction. That’s my read at least. Definitely need to see the big metros to be on firm ground.

8:16 PM: Same picture. Basically a re-run of November 8th but with Walker seeming to be very slightly underperforming his November numbers in the now completed red rural counties. Advantage Warnock but far from done. If you’re the Walker campaign you have to be hoping that Warnock underperforms on his home turf in metro Atlanta. That’s not what you’d expect. But run-off turnout is unpredictable. So by no means can you rule it out.

7:58 PM: Gist so far seems to be this: There was some thought that demoralization on Walker side might lead to the bottom dropping out and a solid win for Warnock. That’s now what we’re seeing so far. It’s very close, based on what we’re seeing so far. In the completed counties, which are almost all red rural counties, Warnock’s is very slightly improving his margins. That sounds like he’s on the road to another close victory. But the big metros are still an open question. And surprises there in either direction could change things substantially. The thing to remember is that Walker was ahead by a tiny margin in November. So broadly speaking percentages that are a replay of last month are good for him.

7:46 PM: We’re in the early numbers and all the vagaries of early voting and election day voting makes it hard to make sense of early numbers. That makes you reliant on the few completed or near completed counties. That removes questions about different kinds of voting from the equation. So far that’s only small red counties. They’re showing a tight race but in most cases Warnock very, very slightly improving his margins from November 8th. Given that he was ahead of Walker in round one (but under 50%) that’s obviously a positive for Warnock. Still early though and there’s a lot we don’t know about election day in the more populous counties.

Trump Organization found guilty on all seventeen counts in New York City trial. More shortly.

I had been told by some that the appointment of Special Prosecutor Jack Smith was a problem since there would be a lengthy period of his coming up to speed on the case, hiring staff, perhaps even revisiting earlier parts of the investigation. Seems that was not the case. In fairness, I think Attorney General Garland was clear on this point. Smith was brought in to oversee the case, make the tough calls on decisions to prosecute. In other words, take over Garland’s role. Nothing Garland said gave any indication that anything in the investigation would pause, re-cover old ground or slow down to bring on new staff. It now seems clear Smith hit the ground running.

I included yesterday’s post “Hang It Around Their Necks” as the main post in yesterday’s edition of The Dispatch newsletter. And I got a note back from TPM Reader NM. I’m not sure whether this is a case of my disagreeing with NM or not writing the post itself with sufficient clarity. I wanted to share NM‘s note and my response because I think it gets at something key about the current moment.

From NM …

We know that before the pandemic there were political fringes on the right and left which opposed vaccination. But the idea that politics would have anything to do with whether you got your flu shot would have seemed strange. Now, however, we’re seeing another concrete downstream effect of anti-vaccine activism on the right.

We’re now in the midst of a pretty bad flu season. That appears mostly due to the fact that the population has been relatively insulated from contagious respiratory diseases for going on three years. Our immune systems are out of practice. But it’s not only that. Vaccination rates are also down. New data show that vaccination rates among US children are down 4.8% compared to before the pandemic. But the details tell a more specific story. Vaccination rates among Black and Hispanic children are still slightly behind where they were pre-pandemic. Among white children however, the rates are down more than 7%.

Former Miami Congressman David Rivera (R-FL) arrested on federal charges tied to a consulting contract with a Venezuelan oil company. The charges contained in the indictment are yet to be unsealed.

Ronna McDaniel has now served three terms as head of the RNC, almost entirely on the basis of being the choice of Donald Trump. Her loyalty was so great she agreed to change her name for him. Professionally known as Ronna Romney McDaniel until 2017, she dropped her middle-family name reportedly to please Trump. Now she has drawn what appears to be her first serious challenger for a close to unprecedented fourth term, Harmeet Dhillon. (MyPillow guy Mike Lindell is running. But that’s a longshot.)

TPM Reader JB has this just right …

I appreciated your latest piece about how to use Trump’s latest insane outburst against him. I wonder if it would be useful to have the House and Senate individually pass resolutions affirming the Constitution and condemning Trump’s outburst. If they vote against it, I could see adds in 2 years about how so-and-so Republican voted against the Constitution and effectively for its “termination.” 

Over the weekend, apparently in response to Elon Musk’s “Twitter Files” nothingburger, ex-President Donald Trump demanded that the U.S. Constitution be “terminated” and he be reinstalled in the presidential office. A number of you have written in to say, isn’t this a big deal? Shouldn’t you be making a bigger deal of it?

There are many ways to respond to this question, one of which is: here I am writing about it. But on a very basic level, what’s new? Talk is cheap. Trump actually launched an unsuccessful coup attempt two years ago. In the subsequent two years he has repeatedly demanded that he be illegally and unconstitutionally restored to power. My point is not to say this is no big deal but to keep our feet firmly planted on the ground recognizing that this is the political world we’ve been operating in for two years. It is, as far as I know, new that Trump has specifically said the Constitution should be done away with once and for all. But it really just puts the bow on an already wrapped present.

I really hope Raphael Warnock wins the runoff election in Georgia this week. That’s an understatement. It’s hard for me to imagine what Herschel Walker winning would even be like. But set that aside. There’s an important dimension of this and the Kelly race in Arizona. If Warnock wins, both of these guys will have won two successive Senate contests in two years in states that have been considered off limits for Democrats for years. One cycle can be a fluke. But these are two successive cycles under dramatically different political conditions.