“Discipline means organization, chain of command, and logistics.”
— Master Sun Tzu
In “The Art of War,” his famed treatise on military strategy from the 6th Century B.C.E., the legendary Chinese strategist Sun Tzu spends much of his time on the need to keep armies well fed and supplied. It appears America’s self-styled “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth skipped over those parts of the ancient manuscript.
Yesterday I noted G. Elliott Morris’s argument that extremely poor consumer sentiment in the U.S. is no mystery once you look properly at what Americans mean when they talk about prices and inflation. In short, just because prices stopped going up in the second half of Joe Biden’s presidency didn’t mean the public stopped being mad about them going up (and staying up) in the first half of his term. I’m pretty certain that this explains a lot about what sank Biden’s presidency and the dynamics of the 2024 election. But does it explain what’s happening now? When I wrote yesterday’s post, TPM Reader SB agreed, but argued that it went beyond that — that the still-declining consumer sentiment, the extremely sour public mood goes beyond the post-COVID inflation shock. It’s also about extreme wealth inequality, SB argued. Then, this morning, Paul Krugman began what he says will be a series of posts on his Substack in which he argues that while he agrees with the “excess price” framework, he’s not sure it’s a sufficient explanation.
Krugman didn’t really get into what exactly he thinks it is. As I said, he said he’ll address it in a series of posts. But the gist is that there’s a larger politico-economic explanation that goes beyond how long people stay mad about prices. Krugman says he thinks the deepening sense of economic gloom is driven by the fact that the public was upset about inflation, voted to move in a direction and then had the new guy do basically everything he could to stoke more inflation into the economy and generally whipsaw the economy in 20 different directions for a series of bizarre and obscure ideological fascinations.
After facing a series of setbacks and outright dismissals in its legal battle to try to seize sensitive voter data from multiple states throughout the country, the Justice Department is asking courts in 13 states for permission for a redo.
The U.S. and Iran both announced this morning that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open for the duration of the current ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. While the news is positive on the surface for global commerce and the global energy-economic crisis, few developments better illustrate the situation Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have gotten the U.S., the global economy and Israel into. What we see now is that the health of the global economy is, going forward, subject to fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. In a way Iran has always had a tacit or latent hold on the Strait of Hormuz. Simple geography tells you that. But it was only when Trump forced the matter that Iran learned how comparatively easy a lever that was to pull. They didn’t have to sink any oil tankers and even seriously damage one. They just had to issue threats and do some drone harassment. Maritime insurance markets would take care of the rest. There’s no way not to see this as a massive strategic win for Iran.
Local authorities in Minnesota have charged an ICE agent for brandishing his gun in a road-rage-style incident that could end up being an important test case for whether states can successfully prosecute federal agents for their misconduct in Trump’s mass deportation operation.
The two-count criminal complaint accuses Gregory Donnell Morgan Jr., 35, of Maryland of second-degree assault for pointing his gun at the driver and passenger of a vehicle he was attempting to pass on the shoulder of the road as he and his partner made their way back to the Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis at the end of their shift on Feb. 5. A warrant has been issued for Morgan’s arrest.
The complaint states: “During his interview, Defendant made no claim that he was conducting any law-enforcement operation or activity or responding to any emergency situation during the incident.”
Much will ride on whether Morgan was still on duty at the time of the incident and whether passing cars on the shoulder in an unmarked vehicle without lights or sirens, then flashing his gun, were part of his official duties. Those will be among the issues that Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty will have to overcome to sidestep the defenses the officer is likely to raise, including immunity from state prosecution.
In that sense, the Morgan case may not be the optimal test case for Moriarty if she is exploring the waters for bringing state charges against the federal agents in the three major shootings during Operation Metro Surge. But unlike in the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti and the shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis, where the feds have refused to cooperate in any way, the Morgan case played out differently.
“This is the only case that we actually know what the federal officers say,” Moriarty told the Star Tribune. “We have their statement. We have video. The difference is that it came to us just like any other case would have.”
Minnesota State Police responded to the scene after a 911 call from the passenger of the vehicle Morgan allegedly assaulted and were able to gather evidence unobstructed by federal law enforcement. The passenger in the vehicle had video of Morgan’s license plate, which state police were able to link to a rental vehicle leased by Morgan’s partner, according to the complaint. A license plate reader at the Whipple Building clocked the vehicle, and state police learned the next day that both agents were at the building, the complaint says.
Critically, Morgan and his partner agreed to voluntary interviews with state police, the complaint says, in which they confirmed key details of the incident, including Morgan having drawn his weapon. Morgan told state police he “feared for his safety and the safety of others.”
The Star Tribune reports it this way: “The trooper called his lieutenant, who was at Whipple, gave him the license plate and asked him to look for the SUV. It was in the parking lot. The trooper interviewed the ICE agents with his body camera recording.”
Notably, neither Morgan nor his partner reported the incident, Morgan’s supervisor told state police, according to the complaint.
Mass Deportation Watch
Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons, who has suffered from stress-related symptoms that have landed him in the hospital twice during his tenure overseeing Trump’s mass deportation operation, plans to resign next month.
In a rare rebuke of Trump’s mass deportation policies, 11 GOP House members defected to help Democrats pass a bill to continue temporary protected status for 350,000 Haitians.
The French foreign minister announced that an 85-year-old French widow of an American military veteran returned to France this morning after being held in ICE custody since April 1. The woman was apparently detained at the behest of one of her stepsons as part of an ugly inheritance battle, a probate judge in Alabama found.
Latest on the Middle East …
A tentative 10-day ceasefire was reached between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah was not a party to the agreement, but civilians began streaming back into southern Lebanon Friday morning after the ceasefire was announced.
With European airlines facing looming fuel shortages within weeks, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now open for the duration of the ceasefire: “The passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open.”
The Trump White House is considering a $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran, Axios reports, the irony of which is hard to overstate. For years, Trump has mischaracterized the cash component of President Obama JCPOA’s agreement with Iran and made it a recurring rhetorical set-piece, including as recently as last month.
The Christian Nationalist Project
Sarah Posner in TPM: “The Trump regime has a preferred religion — a bellicose, nationalist Christianity — but its expression, as we saw this week, can be very erratic and often theologically incomprehensible. But one thing is clear from all the chaos. The Trumpist establishment of religion is made up of various fiefdoms within the federal government, all aimed at protecting, and even justifying, the regime’s impunity.”
Quote of the Day
“Blessed are the peacemakers! But woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth.”—Pope Leo XIV
Judge Scoffs at Trump’s New National Security Rationale for Ballroom
U.S. District Judge Richard Leon of D.C. has once again blocked above-ground construction of Trump’s vanity ballroom project on top of the ruins of the demolished East Wing of the White House. An appeals court shipped the case back to Leon for clarification on Trump’s spurious new claims in the case that the ballroom construction is driven by national security imperatives.
Leon was having none of it. “National security is not a blank check to proceed with otherwise unlawful activity,” he wrote, as he allowed below-ground construction of bunkers and other security measures to continue.
In an alternate universe, you would applaud the Justice Department investigating alleged serial sexual assaults by a member of Congress, but the Trump DOJ jumping in to investigate disgraced Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) smacks of retributive prosecution all the same, especially given the president’s own predilections.
Deep Dive on Presidential Records Act
Christopher Fonzone, who was the last head of the DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel before Trump retook office, takes a close look at why the Presidential Records Act is constitutional, has been adhered to by every administration in the 50 years since it became law, and how the new OLC memo to the contrary is a shoddy piece of slapdash legal analysis.
For Your Radar …
It’s not precisely clear in the strictest scientific terms whether the National Weather Service belatedly recognized the tornado threat in the Kansas City area Monday night because of agency staffing shortages and budget cuts, but the evidence is striking that weather balloon launches upstream were delayed from the normal 7 a.m. to noon, too late to be ingested by the morning runs of some forecast models.
“It’s like we’re conducting a real-time experiment without any way to evaluate what the impacts of it are,” Alan Gerard, a meteorologist who retired last year as the director of analysis and understanding at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, told NBC News.
For its part, NOAA denied the change to weather balloon launch times adversely impacted forecast models. “NOAA’s weather model performance shows no evidence of degradation,” a spokesperson said.
ICYMI: Zeldin Doesn’t Talk Like an EPA Chief
EPA Administrator (Environmental Protection Agency) Lee Zeldin speaks on stage during a visit of the Engineering Design Services Inc. manufacturing facility by US Vice President JD Vance in Auburn Hills, Michigan on March 18, 2026. (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP via Getty Images)
NYT: “A New York Times analysis of thousands of public communications by E.P.A. administrators, including news releases, social media posts, television appearances and podcast interviews dating back three decades, shows that Mr. Zeldin has fundamentally shifted both the agency’s mission and the words he uses to describe it to reflect President Trump’s desire to maximize economic development and industrial activity while downplaying environmental consequences.”
See You Back Here Monday
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This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at Balls and Strikes.
For a full year, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg has been trying to hold the Trump administration accountable for violating a court order that prohibited the government from arbitrarily sending immigration detainees to be imprisoned in El Salvador. Trump-appointed judges on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals have spent that year preventing him from doing so. On Tuesday, the D.C. Circuit issued its fourth order halting Boasberg’s contempt inquiry, which Judge Neomi Rao, a first-term Trump appointee, characterized in her majority opinion as “improper,” “unnecessary,” and “a clear abuse of discretion.”
The D.C. Circuit’s latest order directs Boasberg to “terminate” his criminal contempt proceedings. But the contempt inquiry is not likely to end here. Rao, a rumoredcandidate on Trump’s Supreme Court shortlist, was writing for a divided three-judge panel and joined by fellow Trump appointee Justin Walker. The attorneys for the wrongfully removed people planto petition the full D.C. Circuit to review the panel’s decision. And six of the court’s 11 judges are already on record saying that Boasberg properly exercised his contempt authority, and that an earlier panel was wrong to cut off the district court’s investigative process.
In Church, Merch, and State, Sarah Posner writes about the intersection of religion and politics in the United States.This column is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis.
From AI blasphemies to attacks on the papacy to prayers from the filmography of Quentin Tarantino, the Trump administration has managed to pack what feels like a year’s worth of breaking religion news into the past week. Since Sunday, when Trump posted an AI-generated image of himself as a healing Jesus Christ and then bizarrely attacked Pope Leo XIV as “WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy,” matters have escalated, or rather descended, into greater depths of what many Catholics and Christians would consider rank heresy. Reacting to the Pope’s criticisms of the Iran War, Vice President JD Vance, speaking at a sparsely attended Turning Point USA event in Georgia on Tuesday, lectured that “it’s very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology,” and questioned the Augustinian pope’s understanding of, well, St. Augustine. On Wednesday, at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth offered a prayer for “great vengeance and furious anger” that was derived from a fictitious elaboration on Ezekiel 25:17 by Jules Winnfield, the character played by Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction.
It is easy to get distracted by the bonkers content creation, but we should not lose sight of the fact that the First Amendment proscribes government establishment of religion, even if the founders could not imagine AI or dark Hollywood crime comedies, much less their misappropriation to wage an illegal war. The Trump regime has a preferred religion — a bellicose, nationalist Christianity — but its expression, as we saw this week, can be very erratic and often theologically incomprehensible. But one thing is clear from all the chaos. The Trumpist establishment of religion is made up of various fiefdoms within the federal government, all aimed at protecting, and even justifying, the regime’s impunity.
In the middle years of the Biden administration there was an idea that right-wing dominance of the media ecosystem, or simply social media breaking people’s brains, had blinded people to the fact that inflation was actually coming down fast. Indeed, by the time the 2024 election came around, inflation had come down dramatically and was close to what economists consider optimal — between 2% and 4%. (For all the ribbing economists took about predicting the COVID inflation would be “transitory” by any historical metric, it was.) Yet most people refused to believe that inflation had, in fact, been subdued. And “affordability” continues to be the political buzzword of the day going into the 2026 midterm elections. But this always struck me as a basic failure of analysis, imagining that the public at large and economists mean the same thing by inflation. They don’t. That should be obvious. And it probably is obvious to most of us. But a lot of us, including myself for at least part of the time, failed to draw out the proper conclusions.
Despite his central role in the Trump administration, Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought had not appeared before Congress to answer questions since last June. That changed this week. And members of Congress had a lot of them.
