Into the Rabbit Hole of Probabilities

TPM Reader DD says I’m not seeing the forest for the trees about Democratic prospects in the House. From DD

Reader reaction with some thoughtful nuance about Dem chances on holding the House

The recent upswing for Democrats across several metrics has folks, including yourself, feeling hopeful that Democrats could somehow maintain control of the House. Now I know you’ve said it’s still a long shot and unlikely but I think that long shot misses the forest for the trees (or actually the trees for the forest).

At the macro level there are plenty of reasons to maintain that hope, and the rising, and real, fortunes of Senate Democrats seem to color that perspective. But with the House it’s a matter of math and race-by-race dynamics. By those measures the House is all but gone for Democrats, although the losses may be low enough that they’re in the hunt to reclaim the majority in 2024.

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A Bit More

Another point which comes out of last night’s result. It now seems quite possible, perhaps even probable, that the outcome of the midterms will come down to high stakes GOP redistricting wins that came right at the end of the cycle in NY, FL and OH. I don’t say that to bum anyone out or to predict that Democrats can’t win the House. It is only to note how close it seems likely to be and that those extra seats could well be in the margin.

I’ve just seen it noted that it now appears that in all five post-Dobbs special elections to the House Democrats have improved on Biden’s 2020 performance by at least 2 percentage points. The story from 2020 was that Biden did well enough to beat Trump by a decent margin. But Democratic congressional candidates didn’t do as well as he did. So they’re improving on 2020, which suggests a very different midterm environment than we’ve been hearing about for months.

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A Bit More on NY-19

A bit more on last night’s result in NY-19, which I discussed here. The only minor update is that it didn’t even turn out to be a virtual tie. Democrat Pat Ryan appears to have won with 52% of the vote — a clear if close win. Ryan will only serve for four months. He’s on the November ballot in the new adjoining 18th district. Republican Molinaro will also be on the ballot in a redrawn 19th district against Democrat Josh Riley. The takeaway is the same as last night. Molinaro was and is a first-rate recruit in what the Cook Report calls a dead-even district. The fact that Republicans couldn’t notch a solid win here strongly suggests the governing assumptions about the 2022 midterm are simply wrong.

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Everything You Need To Know About Last Night’s Results

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

So About That Red Wave …

A lot to pick through from Tuesday’s primary results. Some good news for Dems. Some bad news for democracy. Data points galore. Resist the urge to make sweeping conclusions about November based on one day in August, BUT a quite a bit to chew on here:

The Race With The Biggest Implications For November

Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in the NY-19, in a special election to fill the empty seat of former Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY), who stepped down to become lieutenant governor.

Josh Marshall: “The key is that this result is not consistent with a GOP wave election, not even a mid-range one.”

What A Grudge Match

In NY-12, Rep. Jerry Nadler defeated Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the battle of two longtime Democratic incumbents thrown into the same district in the latest redistricting cycle.

Impeachment Echoes

Impeachment prosecutor Daniel Goldman won the Democratic primary in NY-10 and is expected to win the general election in November.

Good For Everyone

Carl Paladino, the glowering racist with a soft spot for Adolph Hitler, lost in the GOP primary in the NY-23.

Loomer Loses

The extreme right wing candidate Laura Loomer lost in the FL-11 GOP primary. As Mother Jones noted, Loomer would have been a top contender for most racist member of Congress.

Can’t Keep A Good Man Down …

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) won his GOP primary despite running for re-election under the specter of a federal sex trafficking investigation.

In the general election, Gaetz will square off against Democrat Rebekah Jones, who is facing criminal charges for allegedly illegally accessing a state computer. Jones you may remember as the Florida Department of Health data manager who claimed to have been fired for refusing to suppress COVID data.

Gen Z Represents

Maxwell Alejandro Frost, a 25-year-old gun control activist, won the Democratic primary in the FL-10, a heavily Democratic district that he is expected to win in November. Incumbent Rep. Val Demmings (D) won the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Marco Rubio (R) and did not seek re-election.

Crist v. Desantis

Charlie Crist prevailed in the Democratic priamry for governor, setting up a longshot November challenge to incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is expected to run for president if re-elected.

Student Loan Week Is Finally Here!

At long last, Biden is set to unveil student loan relief today, including loan forgiveness and extending the pandemic pause on student loan payments. The contours of the loan forgiveness program, details of which are still being finalized, look like $10,000 of forgiveness for those making below an income threshold in the $125,000-$150,000 range.

Federal Judge Confused By Trump’s Lawsuit Over Mar-A-Lago Raid

Kinda embarrassing. The Trump-appointed federal judge whom he asked to intervene in the legal battle over the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago responded by asking Trump what exactly he wants her to do and on what legal basis. Good start for Trump.

TPM: Trump Got Multiple Extensions Before FBI Raid

WaPo: FBI’s Mar-a-Lago search followed months of resistance, delay by Trump

What The GOP Hath Wrought

The IRS is launching a security review of all of its 600 facilities nationwide in response to bogus GOP and right-wing attacks over new funding for the agency.

The Crudité Wars

If you’re Mehmet Oz and you’re still talking about crudités, you’re losing.

“If John Fetterman had ever eaten a vegetable in his life, then maybe he wouldn’t have had a major stroke and wouldn’t be in the position of having to lie about it constantly,” Rachel Tripp, Oz’s senior communications advisor, told Insider. 

Wow … a crudité reference delicately wrapped inside a stroke joke.

The Rick Scott Award For Epic Cluelessness Goes To … Rick Scott

How it started:

How it’s going:

Trump National Security Adviser To Meet With Jan. 6 Committee

Robert O’Brien, Trump’s national security adviser at the end of his term, is scheduled to meet today with the Jan. 6 committee, NBC News reports.

The Copenhagen Connection

Investigators with the Jan. 6 committee traveled to Copenhagen last week to examine documentary film footage of Roger Stone, Politico reports:

The select panel aides viewed portions of more than 170 hours filmed by a Danish documentary crew led by Christoffer Guldbrandsen. That team, known as The Ark, tracked Stone for long stretches of time over two years — including on Jan. 6, 2021, as a mob swarmed the Capitol in an effort to keep Trump in power.

Whitmer Kidnapping Plot Convictions

The final two defendants were convicted in a retrial for plotting to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

Must Read

Reuters: New breed of video sites thrives on misinformation and hate

More On Leonard Leo’s $1.6 Billion Score

ProPublica: How A Secretive Billionaire Handed His Fortune To The Architect Of The Right-Wing Takeover Of The Courts

Why Is Elon Musk Smiling?

Twitter’s fired head of security filed a whistleblower complaint with the SEC alleging that he “uncovered extreme, egregious deficiencies by Twitter” in the areas of privacy, digital and physical security, platform integrity and content moderation. Former executive Peiter Zatko’s complaint was filed last month and released Tuesday.

US Launches Airstrike In Syria

In overnight news, American warplanes targeted bunkers in eastern Syria allegedly in use by groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Life Expectancy Fell Nationwide In 2020

The first year of the COVID pandemic sent life expectancy plummeting in every state and the District:

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Timeline: What We Know About The Missing Secret Service Text Messages From Jan. 6

Back in July, news began to trickle out that texts sent by former top Trump administration officials and dozens of Secret Service staffers from around the time of the January 6 insurrection had gone missing. It was, agencies said, all the result of what they described as a series of phone wipes and a mismanaged data transfer project.

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Big Deal

[ed.note: Since I wrote this post, all the networks have called this race for Democrat Pat Ryan.]

A fascinating story is unfolding in NY-19 — a result that looks very promising for Democratic prospects this fall in the House.

This is a special election to fill a seat vacated by Rep. Antonio Delgado (D), who became Lt. Gov. In itself the race is almost meaningless. The term is only for the rest of this year. But as an indicator of the political climate it’s much more significant. In a strong GOP year this is a district Republicans should take fairly comfortably. Cook calls it a dead even district. What’s more, the Republican, Marc Molinaro, is judged by pretty much everyone to be a perfect GOP recruit for the district. So there’s no excuse. The Republicans should be winning this.

As I write it’s too close to call. In a way, though, the final result doesn’t matter that much. It will essentially be a tie. And New York state election laws allow a week for postmarked absentee ballots to arrive. So we might not know the answer for a week. The key is that this result is not consistent with a GOP wave election, not even a mid-range one.

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Nadler Ousts Maloney In Vicious Clash Of Two Longtime, Powerful House Chairs

It happened because New York Democrats flew too close to the sun. Or, no, it was because Republicans did some savvy judge shopping. Maybe just a simple matter of politicians’ lust for power? 

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So Far

No big surprises so far tonight in a lightish primary night. Alt-right performance artist Laura Loomer got pretty close to knocking off an incumbent in Florida. But close isn’t enough. Maxwell Frost, a Bernie-backed 25 year old, won his primary against a bunch of veteran Democrats.

New York, which closes at the top of the hour, should provide some drama.

Missed Opportunity

Just a little note to say that I think the Democrats, paradoxically, are resting a bit on their laurels after a couple weeks of solid news and very encouraging prospects in the Senate. Anger, outrage and motivation coming off the Dobbs decision is high and will remain high. But there are limits on how much that energy will translate into electoral outcomes if no specific, promised and quantifiable outcome is on the ballot, which is to say, Roe and Reform: Add two senators and hold the House and Democrats will make Roe the law of the land in January 2023. The opportunity is closing.

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