We seem to be in one of those very MAGA interludes in which members of Donald Trump’s base are not so much rebelling as in a process of mourning. They are struggling to find a path to discovering that up turns out to be down, or that the things that they have always professed to care about do not matter because Trump has announced they do not matter. Lindsey Graham seems to be maybe 3/4s through the process. Ted Cruz is working on it. But some of his supporters, especially a number of those who aren’t in elective politics are having a harder time, at least for now. The dynamic, the level of shock is very straightforward. Most of MAGAworld has gone along with the premise that the war in Iran, or Trump’s management of it, has actually been going great all along. Trump is underestimated, the Lamestream media, etcetera. Wait to see the final deal. Trump won’t let Iran get away with anything.
A lot of these folks are now coming into contact with the reality of the situation, from zero to 60 in two or three seconds. It’s pretty jarring. The deal as structured, from what I can tell at least, contains more or less exactly the details that Iranian state media has been reporting for weeks and which the White House claimed was IRGC propaganda. Maybe the U.S. isn’t contributing to the $300 billion Iran rebuilding fund. But it’s overseeing and guaranteeing its creation. So it’s a fairly minor distinction. There are also some odd signals from within the White House that they might pull the plug on the whole thing. For instance, JD Vance agreed with Megyn Kelly that the deal could be scrapped if Trump’s supporters had an “utter meltdown.” Trump has hinted that he might scrap the deal too but has mainly focused on attacking those who are pointing out that the emperor has no clothes, perhaps not even an agreement.
Amid all the justified criticism of his flimsy deal to end his reckless and unlawful war against Iran, nothing seems to get under President Trump’s skin quite like unfavorable comparisons to President Obama’s deal on Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump famously pulled the plug on the JCPOA in one of the worst disasters of his first term, so the comparison is more than apt. It’s an essential point of reference for the capitulation Trump just made to Iran for it to get him out of the war he started against it.
“And you know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama, and they said, ‘He’s a stupid son of a bitch,’” Trump said in one of his biggest tantrums of the week.
The memorandum of understanding, which Trump unbelievably chose to sign while at dinner at Versailles last night, punts entirely on Iran’s nuclear program. It saves those negotiations for another day, with no real mechanism to force the parties back to the table or to compel Iran to strike a new nukes deal. In that narrow sense, Trump is right when he claims his deal is the “complete opposite” of Obama’s.
“When a reporter asked Trump about that absence, he said that what would guarantee Iran’s compliance is fear of renewed U.S. bombing,” Heather Cox Richardson notes. “But Iran has shown it can withstand such attacks, and in any case, the U.S. has no stomach for them.”
In any event, if it turns out badly, Trump can just blame JD Vance.
Trump coming out on the short end of these Obama comparisons happens to coincide with the opening of Obama’s presidential library in Chicago, which itself has stirred up Trump enough that he has felt compelled to mock it.
Boat Strike Survivors Lost at Sea
The two survivors of a U.S. strike on an alleged drug-smuggling boat this week have presumably died at sea, after the U.S. Coast Guard suspended search and rescue operations:
On June 17, @USCG suspended search & rescue operations for 2 persons in distress in the Pacific Ocean. @USCG coordinated more than 20 hours of focused search efforts covering 46 square miles with no signs of survivors or debris.
Since a double-tap strike in September that killed the survivors of the first attack in the lawless U.S. campaign, most of the survivors of subsequent strikes have perished at sea.
The ostensible rescue missions, either launched by the U.S. Coast Guard or handed off to the Mexican Navy, have been too little too late and raise serious questions about whether the Trump administration wants to deal with survivors at all.
Senate GOP Shows Sign of Life
The Senate has tucked a provision into the must-pass annual defense bill that would drastically cut Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s personal travel budget unless the Pentagon coughs up more information on the lawless campaign of high seas boat strikes.
The bill, which passed the GOP-controlled Senate Armed Services Committee last week, is trying to force the disclosure of the unedited footage of every boat strike in the campaign. It also wants more information on the Pentagon’s investigation into the apparent U.S. missile strike on a girls school in the opening days of the Iran war.
If the Pentagon fails to provide the information, Hegseth’s travel budget would be cut by 75%. The Senate tried a similar but less draconian move late last year, which the new provision suggests didn’t succeed in obtaining the requested information.
‘Mistakes Are Made’
NYT: Can you now say whether you will hold anyone in your administration accountable for the strike on a school that killed more than 100 children?TRUMP: No. It's such a strange question to be asked. It's a long time ago. Mistakes are made. I would ask Pete Hegseth that question.
TPM’s Josh Kovensky: DOJ Invokes McCarthy-Era Law to Strip Somalia-born Minnesotan of Citizenship
Mass Deportation Watch
Politico: Immigration judges are denying ICE detainees release. Federal judges are stepping in.
WaPo: ICE removed detainee protections after private outreach from top contractor
Politico: ICE’s detention policy won at the 5th Circuit. Then judges found another way to reject it.
NYT: Internal Emails Raise Questions About D.H.S. Ending Haiti Protections
For Your Radar: Bill Pulte Edition
With President Trump having successfully torpedoed yesterday’s Senate intel committee confirmation hearing for Jay Clayton as DNI, Bill Pulte is poised to become acting DNI tomorrow. The amount of mischief, disinformation, and chaos Trump’s favorite gremlin can generate in that position is alarming, even though DNI doesn’t have a direct operational intel function.
For our purposes though, pay particular attention to the upcoming elections. DNI served as a clearinghouse in recent elections for intel on attempts by foreign adversaries to influence the vote. It sets up an opportunity for Pulte to use the position to plant seeds of conspiracy theories, sow doubt about the results, and enable ratfuckery in various forms.
Important
The Trump DOJ moved this week to block an NAACP lawsuit in Mississippi against Elon Musk’s AI company which alleges that its dozens of gas-burning turbines violate the Clean Air Act. In doing so, the DOJ third-ranked official, Stanley Woodward Jr., made the extraordinary claim that the federal government has the authority to stop environmental lawsuits brought by private groups or individuals.
Anti-White Supremacy Lesson Costs Prof Her Job
Indiana University has declined to renew the contract of a non-tenured lecturer who was suspended in October from teaching the graduate-level course “Diversity, Human Rights and Social Justice.”
The scrutiny of the instructor, who showed a graphic in class that identified “Make America Great Again” as an example of covert white supremacy, came after Indiana passed a law claiming to promote “intellectual diversity” while protecting students from being subjected to political views unrelated to the course, the NYT reports.
Headline of the Day
The New Republic: Tommy Tuberville Hit With Lawsuit Over Secret Life as Florida Man
Travel Alert
I’ll be away until July, doing something I’ve always wanted to do but in my race to see as much of the world as possible have never managed to do: Go abroad to one place for a couple of weeks and just stay there. No city hopping. No multiple border crossings. No sandwiching in a wilderness trek or a mountain climb.
Copenhagen is my one and only destination (although day trips are allowed … hello, Malmö?). I’m a first-time visitor. Recommendations? Tips? Off-the-beaten path gems? I’m keen to simply be a local for a few days.
The DOJ is attempting to strip a Somalia-born Minneapolis man of his citizenship, citing actions he took after he became a citizen. To do so, it’s relying solely on a McCarthy-era law. Its a first, experts told Josh Kovensky.
TPM is the first outlet to note the DOJ’s novel use of the 1952 law, alone, for this purpose — to denaturalize someone who had already become a citizen. Read our story here.
The federal government is applying a McCarthy-era law to strip a Somalia-born Minneapolis man of his citizenship over actions that took place after he became a citizen.
Georgia Republicans Drop Gerrymandering — At Least Til November
The official reason that Georgia Republican leaders cite in their letter to Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announcing their decision to drop plans to redraw the state’s congressional district lines for 2028 ahead of the midterms is pending litigation in the state.
Republican officials expected the map re-draw to target at least two House districts currently held by Democrats, at least one of which is a majority-Black district.
“Changes to Georgia’s maps should take place only when members of the General Assembly and citizens have been given ample opportunity to gather the facts, provide input, and engage in meaningful discussion,” Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns (R) wrote in a letter signed by every member of state House Republican leadership. “For this reason, we will not be taking up congressional or legislative redistricting for the 2028 election cycle during this special session.”
But according to reporting from the Atlanta Journal Constitution, which was first to report on Georgia Republicans’ letter to Kemp, Republican lawmakers in the state feared that redistricting for 2028 ahead of the midterms might energize an already outraged base of Democratic voters — apparently a risk that GOP lawmakers did not want to make when both the governor’s mansion and a key Senate seat are up for grabs this fall. Per AJC:
The prospect of a prolonged fight alarmed some Republicans. Several GOP lawmakers privately questioned if redistricting was worth the political cost, particularly when there was no court order requiring Georgia to immediately redraw its maps.
Others worried the fight would hand their rivals a potent mobilizing issue at a time when Republicans hoped to focus attention on the affordability and public safety arguments against a Democratic ticket led by U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee for governor.
Kemp initially showed some restraint in the wake of the Callais Supreme Court decision that dismanted the Voting Righs Act and set off a race to gerrymander away Black electoral power across the Old Confederacy, opting to leave 2026 midterm maps alone for the upcoming election. But he did not agree with the lawmakers decision Wednesday. (In addition to House leadership, Senate President Pro Tem Larry Walker III, the top Republican in the state Senate, told AJC Senate Republicans were “united” with the other chamber.)
“I do not believe there is reason to delay the apportionment process, especially with the legislature already convening,” Kemp said. “Legislative districting, however, is the responsibility of the General Assembly, and it is within their discretion to defer the issue until a later date.”
The motivations are all tricky to decipher.
While Kemp initially waved off calls to redraw maps for the midterms cycle that we are currently in, he did direct state legislators to hold a special session that began Wednesday to redraw maps for the 2028 presidential election — something that, if passed, he could sign off on before leaving office after the November election. Even after his Republican primary runoff loss for the GOP gubernatorial nomination on Tuesday night, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, the president of the Senate, urged Georgia Republicans to reconsider, saying, “we owe it to the voters that elected us to deliver on this critical issue.”
More on the Jones’ calculus, from AJC:
Had he won the GOP nomination, the Trump-backed candidate would have faced pressure to use his role as president of the Senate to deliver on new maps. Instead, his loss likely deprives the effort of one of its most important potential champions.
Even if Democrats are successful in a longshot bid to retake the governor’s mansion in Georgia, Kemp could still call a special session to pass new maps before the end of the year, likely meaning Republican legislators in Georgia are aware their efforts — and the broader ones across the South to erase Black voting power — may backfire this fall.
— Nicole LaFond
‘Tremendous Foreign Policy Blunder’
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), whose Senate career Trump and RFK Jr. helped end when they backed one of his primary challengers this spring, had some strong words for President Trump and the deal his administration apparently made with Iran.
“The details that I’ve seen so far look … awful. This will go down as a tremendous foreign policy blunder,” Cassidy said. “Iran ends up stronger, our allies in the region are weaker and Iran has learned that if they’re willing to grab that Strait of Hormuz and choke it off, they can get the Western world to dance to their tune. I think it’s a deep mistake.”
While official text of the apparent agreement won’t be released until the two sides sign it in Switzerland, expected to happen on Friday, CNN and other news outlets have obtained drafts of the plan. CNN’s draft suggests that the parties agreed to end fighting on “all fronts,” which includes Israel’s assault in Lebanon, and calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by mid July. The U.S. and other allies are also expected to help finance some $300 billion in reconstruction costs for Iran, though Trump already said today that the U.S. won’t be doing that.
— Nicole LaFond
Warsh Subtly Criticizes Past Fed Leadership, Begins His ‘Regime’ Change
Parts of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee press conference and rate decision went as expected — and other parts didn’t. Predictably, the central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. But after just three weeks on the job, Warsh also soft launched his “regime change” vision for the central bank. The Fed issued a much shorter rate decision press release than normal, removed the names and reasoning of voting central bankers, and announced five new task forces charged with analyzing the Federal Reserve’s communications, balance sheet, use of data, inflation frameworks and “productivity and jobs in the era of transformation,” likely focusing on the economic impact of AI.
“It was surprising to me that the committee removed the vote count from the statement,” Cornell economic policy professor Ryan Chahrour told TPM. “The criticism of past chairs was apparent, though stated very mildly. In short, he made it clear he plans to make a lot of changes at the Fed.”
Trump, who has tried to coerce the Fed to cut interest rates by force, was gentler with his new Fed chair after the decision.
A Senate hearing to start the process of confirming President Donald Trump’s pick to be the Director of National Intelligence, Jay Clayton, went up in flames early Wednesday morning. And, though at times Wednesday it looked as if the Senate might move forward despite the president’s erratic demands, by mid-afternoon Clayton’s path to director was a hopelessly tangled mess. The fracas saw even Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Tom Cotton (R-AR), a dependable pro-Trump voice, grumbling publicly about the White House.
In a flurry of new filings overnight, attorneys for the Broadview Six continued to press their advantage in seeking a full accounting for the Trump DOJ’s misconduct and subsequent alleged cover-up in the now-dismissed case against ICE protesters.
Among the new requests, the Broadview Six are now asking U.S. District Judge April Perry to:
Appoint a Special Counsel: In seeking the appointment of a outside special counsel to investigate and, if warranted, prosecute DOJ officials in Chicago and D.C., including U.S. Attorney Andrew Boutros, they argue that the Justice Department is scapegoating the line prosecutor who appeared before the grand jury in the case:
Indeed, these steps must be taken in large part because of what appears to be a determined effort to blame a single prosecutor when the misconduct now known – particularly in this case – runs much deeper and indeed to the highest levels of the Chicago U.S. Attorney’s Office and likely to the Department of Justice in Washington D.C.
If the investigation yields evidence of criminal contempt, they want the court to empower the special counsel to prosecute those officials involved.
Conduct a Hearing on Prosecutorial Misconduct: In conjunction with the request for a special counsel, the Broadview Six also wanted an evidentiary hearing on sanctions for “both the misconduct that is already manifest, and additional misconduct which we anticipate is yet uncovered.” As they continue to pound the lectern that more misconduct is likely to be found upon further investigation, they ask for additional discovery to inform any hearing on sanctions or criminal contempt of court:
We ask that the Court direct the government immediately to conduct a search for any emails, text messages, phone calls, memos, notes, or other records of communications between anyone in the Chicago U.S. Attorney’s Office and anyone – including [DOJ official Aakash] Singh – from DOJ or DHS related to this case.
Note the particular focus on Main Justice.
Allow Limited Discoveryto Recoup Attorneys Fees: In another new filing, the Broadview Six attorneys revealed that the Trump DOJ “will not contest” that the defendants are entitled to recover their attorneys fees and costs. How much they are entitled to recover remains in dispute. In pursuit of recovering attorney fees, the Broadview Six previously asked the court to allow additional limited discovery “to demonstrate the bad faith, vexatious, and/or frivolous nature of this misguided prosecution.”
Trump DOJ Goes After ICE Protesters in Minnesota
A sweeping new indictment of 15 ICE protesters in Minnesota is another test case of the Trump DOJ’s penchant for slapping conspiracy charges on alleged “antifa” dissidents — though the facts of this case are complicated and will take some time to unpack and distill.
It led to this bit of absurdism from Minnesota U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen during a press conference announcing the charges:
You mentioned coordinated attacks. Elaborate?Rosen: "I don't believe I used the word attacks but if I did, I stand by it."
The indictment of protestors comes even as the Trump administration continues to refuse to investigate or prosecute federal agents who killed U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti — or cooperate in the state investigations in their deaths.
Court Declines to Discipline DOJ Attorney
After appointing a special counsel to look into it, the federal court in Rhode Island has declined to discipline a DOJ attorney who failed to disclose to a judge that an ICE detainee she ordered released had an outstanding international arrest warrant.
The Trump Department of Homeland Security seized on the release of the detainee to attack the judge publicly, and the lawyer apologized for not being more forthcoming with the court, saying ICE has instructed him not to divulge the existence of the warrant.
In a letter to DOJ attorney Kevin Bolan, Chief Judge John J. McConnell, Jr. admonished:
Given your knowledge and the importance of the information you knowingly withheld from the Court, the Special Counsel found sufficient evidence that your conduct violated the duty of candor owed to the Court. And the Court agrees. In particular, your knowing decision not to disclose this critical fact was, under the circumstances, the equivalent of making an affirmative false statement to the Court about Mr. Gómez’s criminal history, in violation of Rule 3.3(a)(1).
Nevertheless, the special counsel and the court found “countervailing factors” that made formal disciplinary proceedings unnecessary:
While your error was serious, countervailing factors are also present. The Special Counsel’s investigation found, and the Court agrees, that there is no reason to conclude that you were part of a scheme to deceive the Court, or that you acted in bad faith or for personal gain. On your own initiative, you publicly accepted responsibility and apologized to Judge DuBose and this Court. Outside of this incident, you have participated responsibly in many cases here. Your lapse of judgment reflected a failure to prioritize your duty to the Court over the instructions of your client, but you did not act for any deceitful or illicit reason.
The April DHS news release — titled “Activist Biden Judge Releases Violent Criminal Illegal Alien Wanted for Murder” — remains online.
Secret Service Big Mad at Kash Patel
FBI Director Kash Patel jumped the gun again in racing to post news of a criminal investigation to social media while arrests were still being made.
It prompted an unusual public backlash from the deputy director of the Secret Service, which led the investigation into an alleged plot to attack the UFC event Sunday at the White House on President Trump’s birthday.
“I’ll tell you a phrase I learned early in my career in the New York field office and that’s `’Don’t choke on your own smoke,’” the Secret Service’s Matthew C. Quinn said at a press conference, without naming Patel. “I’ll tell you the Secret Service led that investigation from the beginning. I’ll tell you that case is ongoing. In order to maintain the integrity of the investigation and the security plan, we chose not to leak it.”
At least five people from four states — California, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio — have been charged in the alleged plot involving drones and rifles, which was uncovered when a concerned mother called the police, though it remains unclear whether they had the means to carry out the attack.
In related news: The Trump DOJ seized on the alleged plot in its appeal of the court order shutting down construction of Trump’s vanity ballroom, dubiously arguing that it shows the need for a secure location (to hold UFC fights and related circus events?).
Patel Has a Slush Fund for FBI Loyalists?
In a new letter, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) claims FBI Director Kash Patel “may” have unlawfully paid more than $1 million in bonuses to agents on his Director’s Advisory Team and on his security detail.
Trump Holds DNI Nom Hostage to Election Interference Bill
In another sign of the gathering storm of a Big Lie redux for the midterm elections, President Trump this morning scotched a plan to quickly confirm Manhattan U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence in order to pressure Congress into passing his election interference bill, the SAVE America Act, as part of extending FISA’s Section 702 surveillance authority.
Under Trump’s new plan, his loyalist Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, would step in as acting DNI in the meantime — an ironic move because fast-tracking Clayton was a way of sidelining Pulte, whose selection as acting DNI had derailed the FISA reauthorization in the Senate.
In his social media post announcing the move, Trump said he was cancelling today’s Senate Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Clayton’s nomination, but committee Chair Tom Cotton (R-AR) said the hearing would proceed.
Midterms Results: Georgia Edition
GA-Sen: Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins won the GOP runoff to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), giving Democrats the general election opponent they wanted.
GA-Gov: Trump-endorsed Georgia Lt. Governor Burt Jones lost the GOP runoff to billionaire Rick Jackson, despite having led in the first round of the primary.
U.S. Boat Strike Leaves 2 Survivors
A U.S. attack on an alleged drug-smuggling boat in the eastern Pacific on Tuesday killed one man and left two survivors adrift on the high seas, bringing the death toll in the lawless Trump administration campaign to at least 208. In what has become a largely meaningless refrain, the U.S. military said it “immediately notified U.S. Coast Guard to activate the Search and Rescue system for the survivors.”
Trump Faked Out Most Media on Iran War Deal Yet Again
It’s now basically confirmed that the U.S. and Iran agreed to disagree and that President Trump turned around and peddled that publicly as an agreement to end the war.
The terms of a draft of the memorandum of understanding between the two countries, which isn’t yet signed, is both generally favorable to Iran and leaves much unresolved for later negotiations (which may or may not happen).
After touting it over the weekend — and being inexplicably taken at face value by most major news outlets — Trump gave the whole thing an absurdist twist this morning in Europe at the G7 summit:
Trump on his Iran deal: "It's a very strong deal. Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong."
That’s not just Trump free-associating in front of the cameras. That’s the official administration line, per this rich CNN headline: “US officials downplay text of the Iran agreement, saying it doesn’t account for back-channel commitments.”
Meanwhile, each night since the MOU was conceptually agreed to, Iran has launched drones against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. has shot them down, NBC News reports. `
Messi Doing Messi Things … at Nearly 39
Vintage Lionel Messi last night against Algeria, where his three goals for defending champ Argentina tied him for most in a career in World Cup play:
Hot tips? Juicy scuttlebutt? Keen insights? Let me know. For sensitive information, use the encrypted methods here.
The TPM Show will not be recording this week. We could say it’s because we’re riding high on the Knicks win, but really, we just had some scheduling issues. We’ll see you guys next week with a brand new episode!
Throughout his confirmation hearing, Democrats didn’t trust that President Donald Trump’s new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh could remain independent from the president. Of chief concerns were Trump’s very open attacks on the Fed’s independence, which started on social media and in the press but went far beyond that when he tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and allowed his Department of Justice to launch a criminal probe into former Chair Jerome Powell.
Cook’s case is still unresolved, with the Supreme Court expected to soon rule on whether Trump has the authority to outright fire a central banker. Powell’s investigation was tentatively dropped by the Justice Department, but U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro refused to say her office wouldn’t take the case back up. Amid all the executive branch chaos, the president managed to nominate conservative economist and former Fed governor Warsh to helm the central bank, and after some significant, albeit short-lived, hurdles, he was confirmed as Fed chair almost entirely along party lines.
Ahead of the first Federal Open Reserve Committee interest rate decision of Warsh’s chairship, expected Wednesday afternoon, economists and policy experts don’t necessarily foresee the man Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) called “Trump’s sock puppet” to making much of a splash. But even if he doesn’t join a minority of governors and committee members advocating for lower interest rates, Warsh is expected to bring big changes to the central bank. Some people who spoke with TPM aren’t confident he’ll remain independent from the president for long.
What to Expect at Warsh’s First Press Conference
The prevailing belief among economists, including those who spoke with TPM, is that Fed governors and voting committee members will opt to leave rates unchanged. They’re currently sitting at between 3.5% and 3.75%, below their last recent high of above 5% during the COVID pandemic and lower than when Trump took office in January 2025.
“I think it’s going to be fascinating,” Alex Jacquez, chief policy director at Groundwork Collaborative, told TPM ahead of Wednesday’s decision. “I think what all Fed watchers are going to be watching carefully is how Kevin Warsh positions himself and whether he’s coming in straight away to establish a position… which is to cut rates as quickly as possible.”
Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Forecasting at the University of Central Florida, doesn’t expect him to.
“I would expect some changes certainly but I don’t think we’re going to see the kind of dramatic near-term action on behalf of the Fed,” Snaith told TPM. “And, presumably, he’ll have a little runway here from the executive branch as far as not getting brow beaten as he adjusts to this new role.”
How Much Leeway Will Trump Give Warsh?
To Snaith, Trump’s public and mostly one-sided beef with Powell was largely a personality conflict.
“There was history there and that interpersonal dynamic was pretty bad from the get go,” Snaith said of Trump and Powell. “So, I mean, Warsh comes in with a clean slate in that regard.”
But much of Trump’s stated issue with Powell was that the former Fed chair refused to lower interest rates at the president’s insistence, choosing instead to assess the economic climate and make decisions based on data, as is the mandate of an independent central bank. After Trump nominated Powell to lead the central bank during his first term, the president quickly made his desires for political influence over the Fed known, pushing for rate cuts in social media posts and reportedly threatening to fire Powell in private for failing to make those cuts.
And Trump has done more than just pick with Powell. In addition to trying to remove Cook for sham allegations of mortgage fraud, the president also appointed his top economic adviser Stephan Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Miran got in and voted every time for interest rate cuts that were either in complete opposition to every other governor, or larger even than governors who supported lower interest rates, putting him in obvious lockstep with the president.
Policy experts don’t expect, said Ryan Chahrour, professor of economics and international studies at Cornell University, for Warsh to move like Miran.
“It would be very surprising if he acted like Miran,” Chahrour told TPM. “If that were the case, that would create confusion and uncertainty in financial markets and we would collectively pay the price for that,” he added, highlighting what’s truly at stake if Warsh really does turn out to be, in Warren’s words, “Trump’s sock puppet.”
“I think in the end he’s probably going to stand more with his colleagues than the folks that appointed him,” said Chahrour.
Countries with politically influenced central banks can experience hyper inflation, far outweighing anything the U.S. experienced during the COVID-era price spike in the early 2020s.
In those cases, said Snaith, “the economy ceases to function.”
Why All The Skepticism About Warsh Again?
Warsh served as a Fed governor during the 2008 global financial crisis. Then, and in years later, he was a monetary hawk, advocating for rate hikes to keep inflation down even at the expense of slowing the economy.
That began to change in 2017 when Warsh was vying for the Fed Chair position during Trump’s first term, Skanda Amarnath, CEO of macroeconomic policy research organization Employ America, told TPM back in February.
“There’s not a lot of things in the public record that back up Kevin Warsh as someone who thinks beyond the political,” Amarnath said.
Warsh had long been critical of the bank, calling out especially its expanding balance sheet after the global recession. More recently, he’s maintained that criticism, adding to it issues with the ways the central bank relies on economic data for its monetary policy decisions.
During his Senate Banking Committee hearing, Warsh affirmed his commitment to Federal Reserve independence for monetary policy. Warsh also said “independence has to be earned,” a statement that confused some economists.
That sentiment is likely not shared among most Fed governors and central bankers on the voting committee, including Powell, who has elected to stay on the board as a governor at least until the Trump administration fully resolves its investigation.
“His biggest challenge in executing the president’s wishes is going to be, of course, whether he can bring the committee along with him,” said Jacquez.
After a tight May primary election that saw Trump-endorsed Georgia Lt. Governor Burt Jones leading billionaire Rick Jackson by a mere six percentage points, Jackson turned the tables and prevailed in Tuesday’s runoff election.
