It’s been clear for some weeks that there is growing division in the Israeli war cabinet. Now it appears to be breaking into the open, with indications that a new election could come sooner than later.
First a bit of stage-setting and context to explain the moving pieces and what this all might or might not mean.
On October 7th, the day of the Hamas massacres in southern Israel, Israel was led by a narrow and very right-wing coalition government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel had been embroiled for most of the previous year in a highly polarized fight over the government’s effort to dramatically curtail the power of the country’s Supreme Court. The massacres shattered the public’s confidence in Netanyahu, which had kept him in power since 2009 with only one intermission in 2021 and 2022. Soon after the outbreak of the current war, Netanyahu was able to bring one of the two main opposition parties, National Union, into his government.
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Wayne LaPierre announced on January 5 that he’s retiring as executive vice president of the National Rifle Association. He cited “health problems” as the reason for his resignation, but many speculate he left because of the NRA’s failing financial and political health.
But U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan all but confirmed yesterday that the March trial date of Donald Trump in the Jan. 6 case in DC is unlikely to hold due to his appeal of his claim that the president enjoys immunity from criminal prosecution.
The acknowledgement came parenthetically in a ruling Thursday that said: No, Special Counsel Jack Smith is not in contempt of court for continuing to meet his discovery obligations to Trump and by filing the occasional motion (though she also said let’s stop with filing substantive motions until you obtain leave of court).
Buried in parentheses, Chutkan quotes herself in a previous status hearing in the case: (“A trial start date of March 4, 2024, gives Mr. Trump seven months between indictment and trial, which I believe is sufficient time to advise with counsel and prepare his defense.”)
That line suggests she will want Trump to still have the same amount of time to prepare for trial once the immunity appeal is exhausted. That’s an interpretation of what she’s saying. She wasn’t quite that explicit: “Contrary to Defendant’s assertion, the court has not and will not set deadlines in this case based on the assumption that he has undertaken preparations when not required to do so.”
But it’s pretty clear she is pausing the pre-trial clock while the pre-trial process is paused, and she’ll resume running the clock when the appeal is over.
Trump Makes His Case On DQ Clause To SCOTUS
No surprises in Donald Trump’s brief to the Supreme Court asking it to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court decision striking him from the GOP primary ballot. The contour of his argument remains the same as before:
The president is not subject to the Disqualification Clause because he’s not an “officer of the United States” and doesn’t take the kind of oath that it requires.
He did not engage in “insurrection.”
The Disqualification Clause is not self-executing, meaning Congress must take steps to enforce it.
The Disqualification Clause doesn’t prevent an insurrectionist from running for office, only from holding office.
The Colorado court exceeded its authority under the Constitution’s Elector’s Clause.
Say It Ain’t So
Two significant developments yesterday in the unnecessary but perhaps now unavoidable sideshow in the Georgia RICO case:
The judge in the case scheduled an evidentiary hearing for Feb. 15 on the claims that Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis was romantically involved with one of the three special prosecutors she hired to help on the case.
Willis filed a motion in the special prosecutor’s divorce case to quash his wife’s subpoena seeking Willis’ testimony.
I highlight “evidentiary” because this isn’t simply a motion hearing where the sides will argue over the law. The judge wants evidence put forward, which almost certainly means Willis is going to have to say something on the record about the claims. In the meantime, she has a Feb. 2 deadline to respond to the pending motion in writing.
As for the Willis filing in the divorce case, she has a number of plausible arguments for why she shouldn’t be dragged into the divorce proceedings – but it does not contain a denial that Willis had a romantic relationship with the special prosecutor. In that respect, it’s similar to comments she made in a Black church in Atlanta over the weekend where she admitted to not being perfect but did not deny the substance of the allegation.
As general matter, even if the claims are true, they should not lead to the dismissal of the case. But they’re a complicating factor in a monumental case with incredibly high stakes. How complicating? It’s too early to say. We’ll have a better read after Willis’ Feb. 2 filing is made.
E. Jean Carroll Trial Resumes Next Week
The trial judge became even more acerbic during Thursday’s trial proceedings, continuing to pound Trump’s attorneys as E. Jean Carroll’s testimony ended and expert witnesses took the stand. More analysis and insights on the case:
Marcy Wheeler: “Trump is attending this trial, which will almost certainly result in much larger award for Carroll than she would otherwise get, in order to delegitimize it. And Trump has decided it is worth millions to do that.”
Daily Beast: Trump Team’s New Courtroom Argument: E. Jean Carroll Is Lucky He Defamed Her
Trump is following Rudy Giuliani’s treacherous path:
I've covered both of E. Jean Carroll's trials against Donald Trump.
This one is going even more disastrously bad for him than the last one.
I am beginning to think the damages will be absolutely massive. Possibly enough to bankrupt him. 🧵
Ahead of next week’s sentencing of Trump White House official Peter Navarro for his contempt of Congress conviction, the Justice Department filed its sentencing memo recommending six months in prison and a $200,000 fine.
Truer Words Never Spoken
In the months ahead, the courts of the United States will be tested up to, and beyond, the breaking point, like they have never been tested in history and will never be tested again.
If we keep extending the pain, creating more suffering, we will pay the price at the ballot box. At this point, we’re sucking wind because we can’t get past the main object in the road. … We need to get the hell out of the way. Cut the best deals we can get and then get on with the political year.
Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and the House GOP’s internal impasse on government funding for 2024
The Current Environment
Threats against members of Congress increased in 2023, Capitol Police reported.
2024 Ephemera
Nikki Haley: Trump’s going birther on me because he’s “threatened” and “insecure.”
Politico: The New Hampshire primary ain’t what it used to be.
An interview with the NYT Pitchbot guy: “My tweets critique how the media frames things. They help get to the bottom of all the both sidesing and ridiculous framing that goes on at places like the New York Times.”
Under pressure from an impending snowstorm (translation for non-D.C. weather babies: a predicted couple-inch sprinkling), both chambers of Congress Thursday passed a continuing resolution to keep the government funded until early March.
A Georgia state judge has scheduled a hearing on allegations that Fulton County DA Fani Willis had an affair with one of the lawyers she appointed to work as a lead prosecutor in her prosecution of Donald Trump and others.
The Post write-up says that the hearing is is about whether Willis “engaged in an improper relationship and mishandled public money.” When I read this I thought it wasn’t clear if the relationship was actually improper aside from the allegations of misuse of public money. But my momentary double take captures the uncanny dualism of this story.
Over eight years Donald Trump has made it clear that if you cross him your career in Republican politics will be over. With Ron DeSantis’s campaign flatlining, Donald Trump seems to be moving ahead with settling the family’s outstanding business. What jumped out at me here was that his target is not a Mitt Romney (one of the only exceptions to the rule) or Adam Kinzinger or Liz Cheney. Next up appears to be one of the diehardest members of the rump of the Freedom Caucus, Rep. Bob Good of Virginia.
A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh analyze the Iowa caucuses and what the results tell us about the rest of the primary season and beyond.
You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.
I can’t recall a lawyer having a worse go of it in open court than Trump lawyer Alina Habba did yesterday in the damages trial against Donald Trump by E. Jean Carroll.
Habba had the unenviable task of cross-examining Carroll, the 80-year-old victim of Trump’s sexual assault and subsequent defamation. But Habba made things so much worse for herself. So much worse.
U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, a 79-year-old veteran jurist, shot Habba down so many times that I started to wonder if her misguided strategy was to somehow make the jury hate her more than her client. What good that would do, one can only imagine.
But there was also the one time that he ordered her to stand up: “Ms. Habba, when you speak in this courtroom or any other courtroom you’ll stand up.”
Habba struggled to make proper objections during Carroll’s direct testimony. She struggled to introduce evidence on cross. She struggled with the hearsay rule. It was epically bad.
I don’t usually like to clutter up Morning Memo with numerous tweets from the same thread, but these are so good (thanks to the work of Matthew Russell Lee) and so many of you are no longer on X/Twitter, that I’m going to make an exception today. Here’s a choice sample, in chronological order:
RW: Let's show this– Habba: Objection Judge Kaplan: Ground? Habba: It's prejudicial. Judge Kaplan: All evidence is prejudicial against the party it is offered against
Habba: She said too different things about Montana Judge Kaplan: She said it's great and before she said, it's not boring – that's your difference? Habba: I can ask another question. Judge Kaplan: That would be a good idea.
Habba: You were a regular at Elaine's, right? Carroll: Yes. Habba: It's hard to get into, isn't it? Carroll: No, not hard. Judge Kaplan: It doesn't exist anymore. That's why it's hard to get into
Habba: Do you know if there is a communications team at the White House? Carroll: I don't know. Habba: I represent to you that it does – Judge Kaplan: You're not going to be representing anything, or you'll be a witness.
Habba: How do you suggest I proceed? Judge Kaplan: Show it to her, ask if she recognizes it. Habba: Do you recognize it? Carroll: Yes. Judge Kaplan: It's not marked. It should be marked. Do it appropriately. Do it overnight. They. Need. To. Be. Premarked.
Habba: Ms. Carroll, are you aware it is illegal to delete evidence? Carroll's lawyer: Objection Habba: I move for a mistrial, evidence has been deleted Judge Kaplan: Denied and the jury will disregard everything Ms. Habba just said
They're back. Habba: Have you deleted text message and not just emails? Carroll: When I see threats I delete them. Habba: Can we have a sidebar? Judge Kaplan: No.
If you’ve spent most of the last decade yearning for someone to bring Trump to heel, perhaps you can vicariously enjoy Habba’s drubbing as a proxy for Trump himself.
Trump Almost Bounced From Court
As for Trump, Judge Kaplan confronted him directly for making comments about the proceedings that were audible to the jury in the courtroom.
If Trump continued to act out, Kaplan told him, he would forfeit his right to be present for the trial.
That led to a brief but charged back and forth between Trump and the judge.
Trump Self Bounces
Perfect little detail illustrating Trump's disrespect for process, judge, and jury: he walked out of the courtroom at the end of court day rather than standing for the jury and waiting for them to exit, as every litigant, lawyer, audience member knows to do.
I think a lot of people in this country are out of touch with reality and will accept anything Donald Trump tells them. You had a jury that said that Donald Trump raped a woman. And that doesn’t seem to be moving the needle. There’s a lot of things about today’s electorate that I have a hard time understanding.
A state court in Maine has ordered Secretary of State Shenna Bellows to hold off on implementing her decision to remove Donald Trump from the GOP primary ballot until after the U.S. Supreme Court decides the Disqualification Clause case out of Colorado.
Yesterday’s Biggest News
In oral arguments Wednesday, the Supreme Court conservative supermajority looked poised to radically rewrite its own precedent on administrative law, firmly grasping the brass ring the conservative legal movement has been reaching for for decades.
If that doesn’t sound particularly serious, let me be clear: It likely portends a fundamental reordering of public and private life in America that will endure for decades and be felt in more ways than we can possibly envision from our current vantage point.
Time To Step Up
Greg Sargent: Trump Pocketed Millions in Foreign Payments. Why Won’t Senate Democrats Investigate?
Rinse And Repeat
Brian Beutler: The Democrats’ Alarming Nonchalance About The Juggernaut Of Reactionary Media
For Your Radar
Iran and Pakistan have traded airstrikes this week in a dangerous and destabilizing tit-for-tat. This week alone, Iran has carried out strikes against Iraq, Syria, and now Pakistan.
Greenland Is Sending Out A Warning
The Greenland ice sheet is melting faster than previously thought, according to a new study that finds previous analyses underestimated the loss of ice by as much as 20 percent.
Iceland May Be In For A Long Eruption Cycle
Molten lava from a fissure on the Reykjanes peninsula 3km north of the evacuate town of Grindavik, western Iceland on December 19, 2023. (Photo by Kristinn Magnusson / AFP) / Iceland OUT (Photo by KRISTINN MAGNUSSON/AFP via Getty Images)
As you may have detected by now, I enjoy the mind-fuck of geology, especially trying to wrap my head around geological time frames.
The latest eruptive cycle on the Reykjanes Peninsula comes after an 800-year period of quiescence. We’re four years into the current eruptive cycle, and rather than being a singular explosive eruption that quickly dissipates, the geological record suggests that Iceland could be in for decades of disruptive eruptive activity along the peninsula.
I wanted to flag to your attention some new developments in Israel-Palestine. From the beginning of the war there’s been discussion of the “day after,” what comes after the fighting and whether that “day after” plan provides any opening to move beyond the cycle of recurrent war and death. The U.S. has been increasingly insistent on this with its Israeli counterparts. The Biden White House wants a “day after” plan first because it thinks concrete steps toward a Palestinian state is the only viable solution to the conflict but also because in an international diplomatic context it needs something tangible to show for its steadfast support for Israel’s increasingly unpopular war.
Now, however, we’re seeing the first signs that the Netanyahu government’s unwillingness to address “day after” issues is beginning to have concrete operational effects in Gaza. Israel’s Channel 13 reports that IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has told the prime minister, Defense Minister Gallant and others that “we are facing the erosion of gains made thus far in the war because no strategy has been put together for the day after.” The IDF “may need to go back and operate in areas where we have already concluded fighting.”
Donald Trump was aggravated by his lawyer’s advice that he not appear in person during the last E. Jean Carroll trial — so much so that he is attending this week’s trial to determine damages in the second case in which he was found to have defamed the writer, and may even testify, ABC New reported.
