Just a quick point while we’re in between votes on Kevin McCarthy’s speakership.
In an interview with the Washington Post, Congress expert Matt Glassman offered this very succinct explanation of the problem McCarthy has been saddled with since January:
Just like the speaker’s election in January, it doesn’t do any good to get a majority one time. … To run the House, you need an ongoing majority, day in and day out, in order to set the floor agenda.
That’s it. That’s the whole deal. By that way of thinking, McCarthy has arguably never had a real majority. We’re about to find it if he does now.
Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-CA), a trailblazer and the longest serving woman in the Senate, passed away last night at her Washington, D.C. home, according to a statement her office released Friday morning. Feinstein was the Senate’s oldest serving member and was set to retire at the end of her term.
The latest news suggests that Kevin McCarthy simply does not have the votes to survive today’s challenge from Matt Gaetz. In other words, he’ll lose both the first procedural vote (pretty much a foregone conclusion) and the big vote that actually removes him as Speaker. So it looks highly likely that McCarthy will be out as Speaker today. But as we’ve said, that doesn’t end the story. They still have to elect a new Speaker.
A TPM Reader asked me last night how much of this is shaking out in the way it is because Donald Trump is distracted by his trials and thus not getting involved. My initial response was that it might be playing some role. But I figured the much bigger driver is the fact that unlike his own power, his own freedom and his own money, who runs the House Republican caucus just doesn’t affect him that much. What we know about Donald Trump is that if there’s nothing in it for him he basically doesn’t care. That’s got to be a big part of it. But as today has played out I wonder whether this may be having a bigger impact than I thought.
The right-wing legal world has been salivating in advance of Tuesday’s Supreme Court oral arguments, eager for the conservative supermajority to get a chance to dismantle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Gutting the agency’s funding would check two big boxes: (i) kill off an entity that is the brainchild of political enemy Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA); and (ii) eliminate an important institution in the post-financial crisis regulatory landscape.
They likely came away from the arguments dissatisfied.
As efforts to use the Disqualification Clause to keep Donald Trump off the ballot in 2024 pick up around the country, the man himself has put forth his first detailed rebuttal of the plan.
The right-wing challenge to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) looks likely to come to a head later today.
McCarthy is wasting no time in putting Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) mutiny against him to a vote. In a closed-door meeting with his conference Tuesday morning, McCarthy reportedly said that he plans to bring up Gaetz’s motion to vacate in the first vote series of the day, which is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET.
It’s not clear if Gaetz has the votes to remove McCarthy. After an internal Monday night meeting, it seemed the majority of Freedom Caucus members opposed Gaetz’s effort, Politico reports. That is a clear warning of ebbing support for taking down McCarthy, but with such narrow margins in the House, Gaetz doesn’t need many mutineers to get it done.
Even if Gaetz’s motion fails today, the Florida Republican indicated that he will continue to bring the resolution to the floor at least 14 or 15 times.
As GOP infighting continues, House Democratic leaders have been quiet about how they are going to approach the motion to vacate vote. For weeks, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters that they would not entertain a hypothetical and get involved in the House GOP’s “civil war.”
Jeffries sounded unmoved by McCarthy’s plight this morning:
House Democrats will continue to put people over politics.
We are ready to find bipartisan common ground.
Our extreme colleagues have shown no willingness to do the same.
They must find a way to end the House Republican Civil War.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) told TPM last week that the Congressional Progressive Caucus was exploring options to demand power-sharing concessions from McCarthy if he ultimately needs their votes to save his speakership.
Now that Gaetz has made good on his threat Democratic leadership will have to decide whether the caucus should withhold their votes or — though, unsurprisingly, the appetite for that seems to be missing — help save McCarthy.
On Tuesday, McCarthy shut down Jayapal’s plan, saying a power-sharing agreement “doesn’t work.”
“I’m a conservative, I’m a Republican. I’m a conservative that want to get things done … Our government is designed to have compromise but look we’re in the majority,” McCarthy told reporters. “You don’t surrender.”
Gaetz had been threatening for weeks to try and oust the speaker if he works with Democrats to keep the government open. In recent days, McCarthy has been trying to muster some bravado, publicly telling the MAGA Republican to “bring it on.”
After weeks of threats, on Monday night, Gaetz finally filed a formal motion to oust McCarthy, bringing the House Republicans’ infighting to a boiling point. (Remember Gaetz could bring this motion to the floor by himself because of the deal McCarthy made with the far-right detractors when he was trying to get elected speaker back in January.)
From the time Gaetz filed the motion, McCarthy had two days to bring a vote to the floor. He’s moving quickly to try to put it behind him, though that may be bravado, too.
The different parties are lining up on this Speakership showdown. House Democrats position appears unanimous and categorical. No help for McCarthy whatsoever. Every member of the caucus will vote to oust McCarthy.
Nothing happened inside the courtroom on the first day of the New York state civil fraud trial of Donald Trump that was as important as the attacks he launched in the courthouse hallways on the judge and the legal system:
Trump: This is a judge that should be disbarred. This is a judge that should be out of office. This is a judge that some people say could be charged criminally for what he's doing. He’s interfering with an election pic.twitter.com/VCJKNFqvTK
Trump’s latest attack comes as Special Counsel Jack Smith is pushing U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to issue a limited gag order against Trump in his Jan. 6 case. Add this to the long list of recent examples.
Why won’t the New York state judge doing anything about it? He might. But, remember, this is a judge-tried case. There’s no jury pool for Trump to taint, and no jury for him to tamper with. So there’s not a direct, immediate threat to the integrity of the proceedings.
No, No, No
When you try to apply the tired old campaign and election tropes to cover rising authoritarianism, attacks on the legitimacy of the courts and other democratic institutions, and the use of mass media to stoke anger and resentment in service of your own business, legal and political ends, you get badly framed stories like these:
AP: Trump turns his fraud trial into a campaign stop as he seeks to capitalize on his legal woes
Politico: As Trump goes on trial for business fraud, he treats courthouse like campaign stop
It’s only been eight years since Trump emerged as a national political figure.
Trump Trial, Day 1
NYT: Key Takeaways From the First Day of Trump’s Civil Fraud Trial
The Messenger: Apparently Trump goofed and failed to ask for a jury trial, which is why he is stuck with a judge-tried case in front a judge who has repeatedly ruled against him in this case.
Jack Smith To Donald Trump: You’re Fooling No One
Special Counsel Jack Smith keeps on calling out Donald Trump and his delay tactics for what they are. Yesterday, Smith landed a one–two punch on Trump’s elaborate effort to push back his April 2024 trial date in the Jan. 6 case in DC.
John Kelly Tests Whether Late Really Is Better Than Never
The former Trump chief of staff and cabinet secretary finally goes on the record with some of his worst Trump stories.
Clarence Thomas Recuses In Jan. 6 Case
A very intriguing recusal by Justice Clarence Thomas in a case brought by former Trump attorney John Eastman, who unsuccessfully sought to keep his emails from the Jan. 6 committee.
You’ll recall that a federal judge in California ultimately ruled that attorney-client privilege didn’t apply because Eastman and Trump used their relationship to engage in criminal activity. The Supreme Court declined to take up the case, meaning the lower court ruling stands as is.
It’s not clear why Thomas recused, but Eastman, a former Thomas clerk, was corresponding with Thomas’ wife Ginni in the post-election period in 2020.
Important Read On The ‘Polarization’ Narrative
I’ve been waiting for this dismantling of “polarization” for a long time. Thomas Zimmer really brings it in the second installment of his manifesto on the subject.
Gaetz Pulls Pin And Rolls Grenade Into Middle Of House GOP
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed his motion to vacate last night, the first step in his attempted ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker of the House. I don’t have any special insights or predictions here. I’m going to sit back and watch. In the words of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA): “Not my monkey; not my circus.”
WSJ: What Is a Motion to Vacate, and How Could McCarthy Defeat It?
Congressman Carjacked In DC
Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) was carjacked in DC’s Navy Yard neighborhood Monday night. He was unhurt, and his car was later recovered.
Hunter Biden To Enter Not Guilty Plea Today
The president’s son is scheduled to enter a not guilty plea in person in Delaware federal court today on gun charges.
Meanwhile, DC U.S. Attorney Matt Graves is scheduled to sit today for a voluntary interview with the GOP-controlled House Judiciary Committee, which is looking for more ways to make political hay.
Elon Musk Sued For Defamation
A 22-year-old Jewish man is suing Elon Musk for defamation after Musk personally promoted on Twitter a false conspiracy theory that the man was a federal agent involved with a neo-Nazi group.
The lawyer handling the lawsuit is Mark Bankston, the Texas attorney who won a $45 million judgment against Alex Jones on behalf of two Sandy Hook parents.
Riding Shotgun With SBF
Michael Lewis timed today’s release of his new book on crypto-king Sam Bankman-Fried with the start of SBF’s trial. Lewis sat down with 60 Minutes and talked about the countless hours he spent “riding shotgun” with SBF as his fame and then his life exploded:
How Will You Fare?
The most detailed interactive map yet of the US’ vulnerability to dangers such as fire, flooding, and pollution was released on Monday by @EnvDefenseFund and @TAMUhttps://t.co/wRa4rASZ0y
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 2: Katalin Karikó speaks during a press conference after being awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine with Drew Weissman at The University of Pennsylvania on October 2, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Their research discoveries in nucleoside base modifications enabled the development of effective mRNA vaccines against COVID-19. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images)
I just want to make sure that you saw that the Nobel Prize in physiology was shared by Katalin Karikó. It was Karikó who was ignored, belittled, denied tenure, and ultimately left Penn’s medical school despite the groundbreaking mRNA research that ultimately led years later to the COVID vaccines. From the Glamour profile of her in 2021:
That morning at the lab, Karikó’s old boss had come to see her off. She did not tell him what a terrible mistake he was making in letting her leave. She didn’t gloat about her future at BioNTech, a pharmaceuticals firm that millions now associate with lifesaving vaccines but was then a relative upstart in the field. Instead the woman who had bounced from department to department, with no tenure prospects and never earning over $60,000 a year, said with total confidence: “In the future, this lab will be a museum. Don’t touch it.”
