Normie Saviors and the Long Hand of Donald Trump

Posted on by Josh Marshall

I mentioned in this week’s podcast that the current state of the House GOP Speaker debacle-ship reminds me of the day Denny Hastert became Speaker. Hard on the heels of a disappointing (Clinton-Lewinsky) scandal mid-term, in rapid succession one Speaker and one Speaker designate were blown out of the water by extra-marital affairs. In a rush to safety, as the financial journalists have it, Rep. Denny Hastert was elected Speaker essentially by affirmation. The one thing Republicans wanted more than anything was a return to calm and Hastert’s biography and demeanor offered it. Certainly someone as frumpy and avuncular as normie embodiment Hastert wouldn’t be off cheating on his wife or bringing the caucus into disrepute. So Hastert it was.

Obviously, it didn’t turn out quite as expected. But that’s how it looked at the time.

Continue reading “Normie Saviors and the Long Hand of Donald Trump” →

On the Brink

Posted on by Josh Marshall

I want to note several interconnected developments in the news coming out of the Middle East today.

Already battered by his ongoing criminal prosecution and attempted judicial coup, Benjamin Netanyahu’s standing with the Israeli public appears to have been shattered by the October 7th massacres in southern Israel. In such a perilous position, Netanyahu’s allies in and out of government have been spreading various stab-in-the-back type storylines seeking to evade responsibility for the events of October 7th.

The best way I can describe this is that Israel has its own version of the Fox News-rooted right wing big lie machine that Americans are familiar with here. That has been in overdrive for the last three weeks. It has included the government briefing reporters against the country’s security establishment, placing the blame for the massacres squarely on the IDF and Shin Bet, the country’s domestic intelligence and security service.

Continue reading “On the Brink” →

Fani Willis Has Notched 3 Guilty Pleas And She Ain’t Done Yet

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

No Trial Today In Georgia

In an alternate universe, jury selection in the Georgia RICO trial of Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro would be starting today, and we’d be facing down a trial stretching out ahead of us for many weeks. What a difference a few plea deals make. Powell pleaded guilty Thursday, and Chesebro did so on Friday.

The Georgia case against the remaining 16 defendants (19 original defendants minus three guilty pleas) returns to a brisk but not insane pace. There is still no trial date set, but substantive motions are due by Dec. 1.

Chesebro Flips!

A key architect of the fake electors plot has now admitted to criming. Kenneth Chesebro’s plea agreement Friday in the Georgia RICO case is at least as big as Sidney Powell’s the day before. Now two attorneys involved in Trump’s post-election scheming have pleaded guilty. Unlike Powell, who pleaded guilty to misdemeanors, Chesebro pleaded guilty to a felony.

Here’s the rundown:

  • Chesebro pleaded guilty to a single felony count of conspiracy to file false documents.
  • Chesebro was sentenced to five years of probation, required to perform 100 hours of community service, ordered to pay $5,000 in restitution, and write a letter of apology to the people of Georgia. If he completes probation without incident, his conviction will be expunged under Georgia law.
  • Chesebro is cooperating with DA Fani Willis, but it’s not clear how helpful he’ll be to her (see below).

Should Trump Be Worried About Chesebro?

I don’t know how much stock to put in what Chesebro defense attorney Scott Grubman has been saying since the plea deal, but it’s worth noting:

  • Should Trump worry? “I don’t think so.” 
  • Did Chesebro implicate others? “He did not implicate anyone else. He implicated himself in that particular charge.”
  • Is Chesebro a snitch? “He didn’t snitch against anyone. He went in there. He accepted responsibility.”
  • Will Chesebro testify in the Georgia RICO case? “That doesn’t mean that they’re going to call him and I don’t think that’s anywhere near certainty. And in fact, quite frankly, I would be somewhat surprised if they did [call him].”
  • Could Chesebro’s testimony be helpful to other defendants? “He is required to testify truthfully if he is called by the state, and Mr. Chesebro is a man of his word. At the same time I will say, if he is called by a defendant he will testify and testify truthfully.”

What Impact Does Chesebro’s Plea Have on Jack Smith?

TPM’s Josh Kovensky revisits the Jan. 6 indictment of Donald Trump in DC to see what it says about Chesebro, a.k.a. “Co-conspirator 5.”

Chutkan Pauses Her Own Limited Gag Order

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan paused her limited gag order against former President Trump to give the parties time to brief her on whether she should stay the order while Trump appeals it.

In the meantime, Trump is seizing on the pause to resume attacking Special Counsel Jack Smith.

Good Read

NYT: A President, a Billionaire and Questions About Access and National Security

Aileen Cannon Runs A Loose Ship

After all that, the resumption of the hearing Friday on defense attorney conflicts of interest in the Mar-a-Lago case ended up being remarkable for its lack of remarkableness.

The suspense and tension largely evaporated when Walt Nauta defense counsel Stan Woodward conceded he would not cross examine witnesses at trial who were his current or former clients, or impugn them in closing arguments. That mitigates the conflicts of interest Special Counsel Jack Smith first raised – but it highlights how Cannon got played in the first place.

In addition, Nauta waived the conflicts of interest and agreed to proceed with Woodward as his attorney. That means a missed chance for Smith of flipping Nauta against Trump, but Cannon made clear that it also means Nauta can’t raise these conflicts on appeal.

What’s the upshot of all this? Two key blunders by Cannon:

  • Her dilatory handling of the conflicts of interest issue wasted time and resources and probably gives Trump another data point to argue for pushing back the trial date.
  • Her failure to facilitate Nauta conferring with independent outside counsel (in contrast to what a federal judge in DC did in the same case with a different figure in the case) about the conflicts Woodward has prevented Nauta from getting a come to Jesus talk that might have shaken his resolve.

Trump Loses Round In Colorado Disqualification Clause Case

A state judge rejected efforts by Donald Trump and the Republican Party to throw out the pending Disqualification Clause case seeking to declare him ineligible for the 2024 ballot because of his role in attempting to overturn the 2020 election.

Graves Threats

The U.S. attorney for DC, who has overseen the prosecutions of the Jan. 6 rioters, says the threats against his office have become “pervasive.”

Correction

In Friday’s Morning Memo, I mischaracterized the outcome of the Michigan case against a Trump fake elector. All charges were dropped against James Renner in return for his cooperation. Renner did not make any admission of guilt. The error was mine.

‘This Is George Santos’

 NYT: George Santos Swore He’d Never Talk to Me. Then the Phone Rang.

Jim Jordan Is Out But The House GOP Is Still Stuck

Jim Jordan went down hard Friday, failing in a third vote for speaker in the morning and his status as speaker designee being revoked by the House GOP in the afternoon.

What happens next is truly anyone’s guess.

The nine speaker wanna-bes in the House GOP will make a case for themselves in a candidate forum scheduled for this evening, with another round of internal GOP voting for speaker expected Tuesday. Of the nine, only two voted to certify the 2020 election.

I’m seeing some risk of the coverage devolving into a horse race style story, but keep in mind:

  • The same systemic and structural problems that hamstrung McCarthy, Scalise and Jordan (and the previous two GOP speakers) remain.
  • A hair-trigger motion to vacate still threatens to hang over any GOP speaker.
  • None of the nine candidates is such a major player or possesses a power center to shift the underlying dynamics in the conference.

One possible outcome: none of the nine wins, and an exhausted House GOP elevates Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) from speaker pro tempore to speaker.

Israel-Gaza Watch

  • Israeli strikes in Gaza continued at an intense pace, with the unconfirmed death toll on the Palestinian side rising to 4,651.
  • Limited humanitarian aid is making its way into Gaza.
  • Israel raises its estimate of hostages held by Hamas to 222.
  • The Biden administration is pressing Israel to delay its expected ground invasion of Gaza.
  • Politico: An unsanctioned coterie of pro-Israel quasi-lobbyists has descended on D.C.
  • NYT publishes editor’s note critical of its own coverage of the Gaza hospital blast.
  • WSJ: Video Analysis Shows Gaza Hospital Hit By Failed Rocket Meant for Israel

SCOTUS Takes Up Major Social Media Case

The Supreme Court has blocked the overreaching lower court injunction that barred some federal agencies from jawboning social media companies about disinformation on their platforms and agreed to take up the case out of Louisiana on an expedited basis this term.

2024 Ephemera

  • NBC News: Some Muslim Americans in Michigan feel betrayed by President Biden
  • Politico: Biden’s Arab-American boosters begin to leave his side
  • Liz Cheney: Donald Trump is “the single most dangerous threat we face”:

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The GOP’s Secret To Protecting Gerrymandered Electoral Maps? Claim Privilege.

Posted on by Nicole LaFond

This article was originally published at ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom.

Eva Bonilla grows furious when she thinks about how Latino voters are treated by the Republican power structure in Texas. At 74, the small business owner watched the GOP Legislature pass a series of measures like a voter ID law that she felt would make it harder for Latinos to cast ballots or run for public office.

Continue reading “The GOP’s Secret To Protecting Gerrymandered Electoral Maps? Claim Privilege.” →

Retaliation

Posted on by Josh Marshall

According to Israeli media reports, the Mossad and Shin Bet (Israel’s international and domestic intelligence agencies) have created a new unit with the Hebrew acronym Nili, to track down and kill all the Hamas fighters who participated in the October 7th incursion into southern Israel which left more than 1,400 Israelis dead, mostly civilians.

According to Israel the attack was carried out by the Nukhba (elite) Force, a naval commando unit of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassem Brigades, Hamas’s military wing.

Press reports suggest the attack was carried out by roughly 2,500 Nukhba fighters.

A Look At What The DC Jan 6 Indictment Says About Chesebro

Posted on by Josh Kovensky

Ken Chesebro pleaded guilty this morning in Georgia and has agreed to cooperate in Fulton County. A close look at Jack Smith’s January 6 indictment of Donald Trump sheds more light on what the Trump campaign lawyer may know about the 2020 coup attempt and what he could reveal to prosecutors in Georgia.

Continue reading “A Look At What The DC Jan 6 Indictment Says About Chesebro” →

After Secret Ballot, Jordan Is No Longer House Republicans’ Nominee For Speaker

After Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) forced a third vote on his speakership and lost worse than he did last round, House Republicans met for a conference meeting where they voted on whether Jordan should remain the nominee. The ballot was secret and members voted “yes,” “no” or “present” to determine Jordan’s fate.

Jordan lost the vote 112 to 86.

There are no more votes expected this week and the House will come back into session on Monday with a vote on Tuesday. Candidates will have the weekend to put together their bids, and have to announce to the conference by noon Sunday.

TPM’s Kate Riga and Emine Yücel are reporting from Capitol Hill, once again. Follow our live coverage below:

What To Look For When Aileen Cannon Takes Up The MAL Case Today

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

It’s All About Flipping Nauta

The proceedings today in the Mar-a-Lago case won’t be available in real time, so let me set the stage for you and give you a solid way of evaluating what happens.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon is resuming the hearing over the conflicts of interest facing Walt Nauta defense counsel Stan Woodward. It is scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET.

I went into considerable detail in yesterday’s Morning Memo about what prosecutors are ostensibly after here: They’re trying to smoke out and resolve any conflicts of interest so that defendants can’t later cite those conflicts on appeal and get their convictions overturned.

Woodward is playing fast and loose, and Cannon is giving him an obscene amount of leash. She’s treating the conflict of interest problem like an adversarial issue that she’s refereeing, but the problem is that the conflicts go to the heart of whether it’s a fair adversarial proceeding in the first place. It’s not up to prosecutors to resolve that problem. It’s up to the judge.

While prosecutors have good reason to want to get the conflicts ironed out now, there’s obviously another reason this matters: They want to flip Nauta. It’s probably a long shot. He appears joined at the hip with Trump. His legal representation is being paid for by Trump. His livelihood is dependent on Trump.

But here’s the key: The last Trump employee who was given a chance to speak to independent counsel quickly decided to stop covering up for Trump, dropped Woodward as counsel, and with new counsel in tow practically ran to the DC grand jury to withdraw his earlier false testimony and provide new deeply incriminating testimony against Nauta and Trump.

Prosecutors want a chance to do the same with Nauta. I doubt they’re counting on flipping him, but they want that shot. Judge Cannon’s frankly ridiculous handling of this aspect of the case has stalled that effort, turned what should be a normal proceeding upside down, and generally made a hash of things.

I hope this steers you right for today’s hearing.

Sidney Powell Flips!

Arguably the biggest development in any of the Trump prosecutions in weeks: Sidney Powell’s decision to plead guilty in the Coffee County caper and to cooperate with Atlanta DA Fani Willis changes the legal landscape considerably.

The initial stage of jury selection begins today in the trial originally intended for Powell and Kenneth Chesebro. Now Chesebro will go it alone, barring any last-minute plea deal for him (he reportedly already rejected a plea offer). Jury selection begins in earnest Monday.

Powell’s conviction on six misdemeanor counts is a huge win for Willis, but I’m most intrigued by what impact Powell’s guilty plea has on Special Counsel Jack Smith’s work at the federal level. Since her guilty plea can be used against her by Smith, it’s hard for me to imagine her attorney not reaching out to Smith to try to negotiate a global deal. Still, we have no evidence that such a parallel deal was struck between Powell and Smith.

Either way, Powell’s cooperation spells bad news for Trump. She has already told Willis what she will testify to and provided documents.

It probably won’t be the last guilty plea in the Georgia RICO case.

Michigan Fake Elector Flips

A fake Trump elector in Michigan has agreed to cooperate with state prosecutors in return for the dropping of all charges against him.

Correction: I mistakenly cast this as a guilty plea in the original version of the post. All charges were dropped, and there was no admission of guilt. The error was mine.

Trump Is No Washington Or Lincoln

It looks like the Justice Department unleashed its considerable internal legal firepower in drafting this brief in the Jan. 6 case opposing Trump’s claims that the president enjoys absolute immunity from criminal prosecution.

Ooops …

Ryan Reilly: In its chaotic Jan. 6 probe, the FBI wrongly questioned a Biden staffer about Capitol pipe bombs

Never Say Never, But Then Again …

Yesterday was a very strange day on the Hill.

We came into the day promised another vote on Rep. Jim Jordan’s bid to become speaker. It never happened.

First the vote was supposed to be midday, then delayed, then maybe in the evening or even later. Nada.

There was a brief but short-lived push by Jordan and others to bestow more robust powers on Speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC). It’s not clear if that was a genuine effort to unlock the House for a few weeks and get things moving, or an elaborate delay tactic by Jordan, or some combination of both. But it didn’t do much to maintain the faux suspense.

Despite Jordan’s lackluster performance on holding a vote yesterday, most of the media coverage was still in “poised for another vote” mode. It was hard not to feel led around by the nose by the end of the day.

Jordan is obviously trying to avoid admitting defeat or even appearing to have been defeated. On top of that, he has taken advantage of the unprecedented situation and the lack of any real sense of what the next step can or should be to keep everyone on tenterhooks – even though the reality seems pretty darn clear: He doesn’t have the votes.

Maintaining this false sense of suspense continued overnight and into this morning, with a planned 10 a.m. ET vote on speaker. Will that happen or get punted like yesterday’s? If it happens, will Jordan lose even more votes than he did last time?

Jordan himself appeared before cameras briefly a short time ago and seemed to implicitly confirm some of the reporting that he is prepared to force the issue through the weekend:  “Our plan this weekend is to get a speaker elected.”

A Wave Of Threats Against Members

The Jim Jordan speakership bid has uncorked right-wing extremism directed at fellow House GOPers, subjecting them to the same threats and harassment MAGA opponents and innocent bystanders have been experiencing for years.

  • CNN airs shocking voicemail to the wife of an unnamed GOP congressman from a Jim Jordan supporter: “We’re gonna be up your ass fucking nonstop.”
  • Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) received this email: “If I see your face, I will whip all the hair out of your head you scumbag.”
  • NYT: “The harrowing experiences have provided a window into just how ugly the political discourse in the United States has become, and how the hard right in particular has normalized violent threats and intimidation.”
  • Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO):

Good Read

Daily Beast: Solving the Mystery of George Santos’ Sham Campaign Treasurer

Israel-Gaza Watch

This Case Makes My Head Hurt

The Fifth Circuit is making a mess of the Louisiana redistricting case, but the Supreme Court isn’t quite prepared to clean it up just yet.

2024 Ephemera

  • Appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) won’t run to fill Dianne Feinstein’s seat.
  • Clarence Thomas benefactor Harlan Crow maxed out his campaign contributions to Cornel West.
  • The challenge for RFK Jr. is getting on the ballot in all 50 states.

Hate To See It

NYT: “The judge in Alex Jones’s bankruptcy case ruled on Thursday that he will not be allowed to use his Chapter 11 filing to evade paying more than $1 billion in verdicts to families of the Sandy Hook shooting.”

Up Is Down

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