Brief Update: Key Election Denier Likely on the Cusp of Speakership

Posted on by Josh Marshall

It certainly *seems* – and I stress *seems* – like Republicans have finally managed to thread the Speaker needle and will elect Mike Johnson of Louisiana in a couple hours. When the caucus did a roll call late yesterday evening a few voted present but none voted against him. But 20 or so weren’t there. Those who were put on a big show of unity in a late evening press conference and the consensus seems to be that it’s happening. There’s a bit of uncertainty created by that non-trivial number not showing up for that final key vote. But no members have made any announcements or moves overnight or this morning that suggest they’re going to oppose Johnson on the floor or take any steps to halt his momentum.

My best guess is it probably happens. But given the events of the last three weeks we can’t be certain until we see the actual vote.

How did they finally pull this off?

Continue reading “Brief Update: Key Election Denier Likely on the Cusp of Speakership” →

The Big Mystery Of Mark Meadows’ Jan. 6 Testimony

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Meadows And Immunity

The biggest news in the Trump prosecutions yesterday was the ABC News report that Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows was given immunity by Special Counsel Jack Smith and then testified to the DC grand jury investigating Jan. 6.

A lot of confusion about what this means, what it reveals, and what remains unknown. The big point of contention over the course of the afternoon yesterday was whether this was Meadows flipping and becoming a witness against Trump. The answer is more nuanced than that.

Meadows was compelled to testify, i.e., he did not so so willingly. Rather, prosecutors gave him immunity to testify, meaning they wouldn’t prosecute him using anything incriminating in his testimony. This gets them around him taking the 5th, and it lets Meadows have a shot of maintaining his viability as a conservative mover and shaker. He was forced to do it; he wasn’t a snitch.

ABC News later updated its story to note that the Meadows testimony came back in March. (ABC News had previously reported that Meadows testified to a grand jury in April in matters related to the Mar-a-Lago documents case.) This suggests that Meadows’ testimony was already baked in when Jack Smith indicted Trump in the Jan. 6 case back in August.

More on what it all means:

Witness Tampering? What Witness Tampering?

Donald Trump reacted to the Mark Meadows news in a way that is sure to get the attention of U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, who already issued a limited gag order in the Jan. 6 case to prevent exactly this kind of thing, but then paused it to consider whether to impose it while Trump is appealing her decision:

Jenna Ellis Flips!

The second biggest news of the day in the Trump prosecutions was the plea deal in the Georgia RICO case for former Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis:

  • Aaron Blake: Jenna Ellis’s tearful guilty plea should worry Rudy Giuliani
  • NYT: Latest Figure to Flip in Election Case Had Direct Ties to Trump and Giuliani
  • Philip Bump: The layers of falsehoods that led to Jenna Ellis’s plea deal

Michael Cohen Testifies Against Trump

On a normal day, this would have been the biggest news in Trump accountability world. Not so this time.

  • NYT: Cohen Denounces Trump During Courtroom Face-Off
  • WSJ: Michael Cohen Testifies Trump Ordered Him to Inflate Wealth

House GOP Goes On A Wild Ride

A long, long day on the Hill yesterday, and perhaps no better way to catch you up on the day’s chaos than a brief timeline (all times ET):

Approx. 9:55 a.m. House GOP begins voting for a new speaker nominee.

12:15 p.m. On the fifth ballot, Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) is selected by the House GOP as speaker nominee, winning 117 votes. Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) finishes second, with 97 votes.

12:19 p.m. Emmer immediately calls for a roll call vote within the House GOP conference to gauge his support for a floor vote. He needs virtually unanimous GOP support to win the necessary 217 votes on the floor without Democratic help.

Approx. 1 p.m. Emmer loses 26 votes in the roll call vote; gets to work trying to convert the holdouts.

2:35 p.m. Former President Trump drives a nail into Emmer’s coffin with a Truth Social post claiming he hasn’t shown sufficient fealty to MAGA.

Approx. 4:24 p.m. Emmer’s run as speaker-designee barely made it past the four hour mark before he dropped out and left the building without a word.

5:30 p.m. The deadline for anyone on planet Earth to submit their name for consideration by the House GOP as the next speaker.

6 p.m. House GOP holds yet another speaker candidate forum with the lucky six candidates for the least desirable post in DC.

Approx 8:40 p.m. House GOP begins voting for new speaker nominee.

Approx 9:54 p.m. On the third ballot, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is nominated for speaker, meaning the guy who came in second some nine hours earlier somehow emerges from the chaos as the winner. Johnson is the fourth GOP nominee for speaker in the past three weeks.

Approx. 10 p.m. Rather than waiting until morning, as originally planned, Johnson immediately holds a roll call vote among Republicans to assess his strength on the House floors.

Approx. 10:30 p.m. Johnson wins the roll call with zero no votes and 3 present votes. In what may or may not be an ominous sign, 20 GOP members don’t show up for the vote.

What Happened Next

After Johnson secured the nomination, he and the House GOP conference made an ostentatious show of unity, inviting reporters into the room and gathering around the new nominee. Here’s how it went:

Let’s see the video proof (set aside, if you can, the House GOP’s blinding whiteness):

Then this:

Mike Johnson’s “We’re not doing any policy tonight” stands as a marker of the era, a truth all the truer for the obliviousness with which it was delivered. All hail the speaker of truth.

Where Do Things Stand Now?

We’re in the fourth week of no speaker of the House. The House GOP has flailed spectacularly in public that whole time, riven by internal divisions, crippled by a deep aversion to governing, and fundamentally opposed to basic democratic principles, such as abiding by the results of elections.

Despite all that – and especially after the wild ride of yesterday – it actually appears this morning that Mike Johnson is more likely than not to win a floor vote expected shortly after noon E.T. today.

What makes Johnson viable? First off, I’m not 100% sure he really is, but what makes it seems plausible that he will win is that he is as conservative as they come, with deep roots in the Christian right and a pro-insurrectionist bent – but he’s not as bombastic, wild-eyed, and loaded with baggage as Jim Jordan.

So he’s convinced the House Freedom Caucus types that he’s one of them, but hasn’t been crazy enough to scare off more vulnerable members. It’s a delicate balance, but it may be enough to get him elected speaker today. Just remember, there are about two dozen House GOP members who showed some possible signs of flaking on Johnson last night, and he can only afford to lose a handful of them on the floor.

Mike Johnson’s Jan. 6 Record

Not only did Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), the new speaker designee, vote against certifying the 2020 election results, he was the architect of a slightly more palatable “theory” for why House Republicans shouldn’t certify the results, as the NYT reported a year ago:

In formal statements justifying their votes, about three-quarters relied on the arguments of a low-profile Louisiana congressman, Representative Mike Johnson, the most important architect of the Electoral College objections.

On the eve of the Jan. 6 votes, he presented colleagues with what he called a “third option.” He faulted the way some states had changed voting procedures during the pandemic, saying it was unconstitutional, without supporting the outlandish claims of Mr. Trump’s most vocal supporters. His Republican critics called it a Trojan horse that allowed lawmakers to vote with the president while hiding behind a more defensible case.

Even lawmakers who had been among the noisiest “stop the steal” firebrands took refuge in Mr. Johnson’s narrow and lawyerly claims, though his nuanced argument was lost on the mob storming the Capitol, and over time it was the vision of the rioters — that a Democratic conspiracy had defrauded America — that prevailed in many Republican circles.

So there’s that.

Keep An Eye On Acapulco

One of the most extraordinary weather events in recent memory occurred yesterday on the Pacific Coast of Mexico where sleepy Tropical Storm Otis, originally forecast to be little more than a nuisance, rapidly intensified at record rates and slammed into Acapulco with little warning as a Category 5 hurricane, with 165 m.p.h. winds at landfall.

It wasn’t just that the forecast models entirely missed it or that the intensification rate was off the charts. Historically there was no precedent for a storm this strong on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, and even less precedent for a storm like this in Acapulco, which had never experienced anyhing stronger than a Category 1 hurricane.

The language of the normally staid National Hurricane Center was apocalyptic as the storm bore down on the coast last night:

Initial reports on the damage are just now emerging as the sun comes up. Stay tuned.

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Republicans Applaud Themselves For Barely Managing To Nominate A Fourth Candidate

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) lasted about four hours as the House Republican nominee for speaker Tuesday before he dropped out of the race, dramatically exiting the Republican conference meeting and leaving the building without saying a word to reporters. His bid never made it to a floor vote.

Hours later House Republicans gathered again to do another round of speakership nomination votes to attempt to select a speaker-designate. After three rounds of votes, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) was nominated for the speakership. But not without a minor mutiny. 43 members of the conference voted for ousted-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). One person voted for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH). Neither of them were on the ballot.

The conference immediately launched into a roll call vote after naming Johnson nominee. While it appears no one in the room voted against Johnson, there were about 20 members absent from the internal roll call. Nevertheless, Republicans invited reporters into the room shortly after the vote and bragged about the fact that they are finally “ready to govern.” A floor vote is expected on Johnson’s nomination Wednesday.

Emine Yücel was on Capitol Hill all day Tuesday, with an assist from editor Nicole Lafond. Catch up on our live coverage below:

The Party of Rule-Breaking Trundles Toward Its Inevitable End Point

Posted on by Josh Marshall

Eight years ago Will Saletan said, “The GOP is a failed state. Donald Trump is its warlord.” There’s probably no short summary, phrase or aphorism I’ve repeated more times on TPM. Because it’s that good. Today we’re seeing another permutation and illustration of that enduring reality.

Yesterday and today the GOP went back to the well to find a completely new set of Speaker candidates and, they hoped, a new Speaker designee. After multiple rounds, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota was elected as the caucus’s choice. He then asked for a roll call of who would actually vote for him on the House floor. He came up more than twenty votes short.

Was there a writers’ strike on this new episode of the Caucus series? Because this sounds like a crib from an episode that ran the weekend before last when just the same thing happened to Steve Scalise. Sure enough within an hour or so we’re now hearing chatter that only Rep. Mike Johnson (LA), the guy who lost in the final vote, could get to 217. So only the guy who just lost can hope to win. Got it? Again, it’s a script cribbed from ten days ago.

Continue reading “The Party of Rule-Breaking Trundles Toward Its Inevitable End Point” →

Powell, Chesebro, And Now Ellis

Posted on by David Kurtz

TPM Reader EK steps back and surveys the damage done by the trio of Trump lawyers pleading guilty:

My gosh. These are three big names. All three have now admitted to fraudulent claims of election theft. 

These are obviously major developments in the legal case against Trump. And that’s how this is largely being reported, as it should be. What I’m seeing less of, although maybe that will change now that we’ve got three, is just how damning this is to Trump’s continued claims of a stolen election.

Continue reading “Powell, Chesebro, And Now Ellis” →

Trump Throws Everything But The Kitchen Sink At Dismissing The Jan. 6 Case

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

A Lot Of Table Pounding

Overnight, Donald Trump filed a big match of motions in the Jan. 6 case against him, launching a broad legal challenge to the indictment that accuses him of conspiring to subvert the 2020 election.

I would group the four motions into two categories: semi-plausible legal arguments and over-the-top playing to the crowd. To be clear, all of them are bombastic filings, but the first category is broadly what you might expect to see filed, whereas the second category is more uniquely Trumpian.

The first category includes:

The second category includes:

As a general matter, none of them are especially strong motions. (I should mention these are in addition to Trump’s pending motion to dismiss on the grounds of absolute presidential immunity.) But keep in mind that Trump doesn’t need all of these defenses to stick; he just needs a key one or two substantive arguments for appeals courts to hang their hats on.

Some of the initial reaction:

  • Politico: “The filings, combined with an earlier motion to dismiss the case citing his ‘immunity’ from prosecution for his conduct as president, represent Trump’s full strategy for preventing the case against him from ever reaching a jury.”
  • NYT: “With the flurry of motions filed late on Monday, Mr. Trump has now put on the table all of his attempts to have the election case dismissed before it goes to trial in March.”
  • WaPo: “In court filings that landed moments before a midnight deadline, lawyers for Trump claimed he was a victim of political persecution by the Biden administration. They called the charges against Trump legally defective and vague, and said the indictment should not link him to the violence of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, because he is not charged with inciting that riot.”
  • Former U.S. Attorney Barb McQuade: “Trump’s new motions to dismiss on First Amendment, selective prosecution, and double jeopardy grounds are all losers.”
  • Marcy Wheeler: Trump’s Motions to Dismiss Things That Aren’t The Charges Against Him

Let The Flippage Begin!

Are you taking outsize enjoyment in watching Trump co-defendants flip? I see you.

Former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance plays the “who’s next?” game with a ragtag band of legal experts.

New Deets On Coffee County Scheme

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has obtained the Georgia Bureau of Investigation’s nearly 400-page report to state Attorney General Chris Carr about the Coffee County voting machine caper.

Michael Cohen To Testify Today

After a delay last week, Michael Cohen is expected to testify today in the civil fraud trial against Trump in New York, and Trump himself is expected to be in court for the testimony.

Trump Still Pushing Immunity in Defamation Case

The Second Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments Monday in the E. Jean Carroll defamation lawsuit. Trump is asserting presidential immunity to try to slip out of Carroll’s grasp for comments he made in 2019, while still president, denying her rape allegations.

Maximal Flail As House GOP Turns To Plan D

We may get a modicum of clarity today from the House GOP when it endeavors to vote for a new candidate for speaker – then again, who are we kidding?

None of the speaker candidates enjoy broad-based support within the conference; none seem any more immune to the systemic problems that have already bedeviled Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise, and Jim Jordan; and none are a lock to get the near-unanimous GOP support needed to win on the House floor.

With that in mind:

  • We’re down to eight speaker candidates, after Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) gave his speech at the House GOP’s candidate forum then promptly dropped out.
  • The tone and tenor of the rabid right members doesn’t appear to have mellowed. “I want to know, which one you have the balls to hold them accountable?” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) asked the speaker candidates, referring to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland.
  • It is remarkable how little experience in Congress the GOP speaker candidates have.

On The Question Of Ken Buck

Noah Berlatsky tackles the question of what has made Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) suddenly sound like a more reasonable man:

Buck isn’t exactly an honorable man or a good legislator. That’s not surprising; it’s been some time since the GOP has been a party in which honorable people, or good legislators, are at all welcome. That means that opposition to Trump, within the GOP, has to come from people who are compromised, unserious, downright evil, or some combination of all of those things.

Republicans have spent a lot of time constructing a party that encourages members to be their absolutely worst selves. Perhaps Ken Buck is a sign that that’s changing, if only slightly. He’s a bizarre canary in the fascist coal mine — but at this point that’s the only type of canary the GOP has.

Menendez Enters Not Guilty Plea

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) pleaded not guilty to the superseding indictment against him, which added a charge of conspiring to act as an agent for Egypt.

2024 Ephemera

  • Erdoğan gets no respect: Trump praises Viktor Orbán as the leader of … Turkey.
  • A lot of jockeying going on for Rep. George Santos’s seat, a critical swing district in New York.
  • Vivek Ramaswamy says withdrawing from NATO is a “reasonable idea” and questioned U.S. membership in the United Nations.

Israel-Gaza Watch

Antarctica Melt May be Worse Than Feared

WaPo:

Accelerating ice losses are all but “unavoidable” this century in vulnerable West Antarctic ice shelves as waters warm around them, according to new research. And the analysis could mean scientists were too conservative in predicting about one to three feet of sea level rise by 2100.

Stable Genius Alert

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Not Letting Trump Be ‘Above It’

Posted on by Nicole LaFond

Perhaps hoping to avoid another embarrassing situation in which his chosen candidate for speaker of the House loses three rounds of votes — and gets his speaker designee status yanked out of his hands by his colleagues — former President Donald Trump made the tongue-in-cheek (sort of?) suggestion this afternoon that perhaps Jesus Christ is the best candidate for speaker.

Continue reading “Not Letting Trump Be ‘Above It’” →

Several GOP Speaker Nominees To Make Pitch That They Can Avoid Floor Vote Doom

Nine Republican hopefuls will pitch the conference Monday that they alone will somehow be able to avoid the failure that felled Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan.

Republicans will congregate for a candidate forum today at 6:30 p.m. ET. Tomorrow, they’ll do multiple rounds of voting. The lowest vote getter will be knocked off each round until there’s one man standing. At this point, it still requires donning some very rosy glasses to see one of these men getting to 217 — not least because of the crowded field and split factions of support.