I’d missed this from a few days ago. At NBC News, TPM alum Sahil Kapur notes that Democrats use of abortion ballot initiatives to coincide with the November election can be seen as a kind of replay of the 2004 election in which the Bush campaign got state Republican parties and activists to work to get anti-gay marriage initiatives on the ballot to goose turnout for their partisans. There are some pretty basic substantive differences, of course. Abortion rights that existed in 2022 have close to disappeared in many of these states and the ballot initiatives would bring them back and in many cases expand them. At the time legalizing gay marriage wasn’t really on the horizon in any of the states in question. But the functional similarity is a point well-taken.
Continue reading “A Replay of 2004?”Judge Cannon Rules For Jack Smith–Though You Wouldn’t Know It
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
One Obvious Avenue Of Appeal Is Off The Table
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has reversed herself and will not force the names of potential prosecution witnesses in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents trial to be made public at this early stage of the proceedings.
But Cannon used the occasion of ruling in favor of Special Counsel Jack Smith to slap him around a bit more, as is her wont.
For those looking for a chance for Smith to take her to the 11th Circuit on appeal sooner than later, this pre-trial dispute was the best chance of that happening because it threatened to expose witnesses to threats and intimidation. But she belatedly ruled properly, so this is out of the running now as an opportunity for the appeals court to rein her in. Stay tuned.
Clock Ticks Down To First Trump Criminal Trial
The pulse quickens as things remain on track for the New York hush-money case to begin Monday:
- Donald Trump lost another last-ditch bid to delay the trial.
- Aaron Blake: Why Trump’s ‘hush money’ case is bigger than hush money
- *Coverage Alert*: TPM’s Josh Kovensky will be covering the trial in person beginning next week.
Trump Prosecution Miscellany
- NY Mag: What on Earth Is Aileen Cannon Doing?
- WaPo: How Donald Trump’s mug shot became a defiant and divisive 2024 symbol
- University of Texas law professor Lee Kovarsky offers a handy cheat sheet for what the Supreme Court might do with Trump’s presidential immunity argument in the Jan. 6 case.
Whoa Arizona!
Barely 24 hours after Roe-destroying Donald Trump took the craven and elastic position that he would leave abortion policy to the individual states, Arizona’s Supreme Court showed us exactly what that will look like.
In reviving a draconian, mid-19th century abortion ban passed when Arizona was still a territory, the high court upended the state’s closely watched Senate race, made it an even swingier swing state in the presidential election, put a potential November abortion-rights referendum front and center, and exposed the fundamental fraud of Trump’s position.
The most exposed person of all was likely GOP Senate nominee Kari Lake, who was on record in favor of the previously dormant ban but quickly started trying to crawfish her way out of it as soon as the court ruling landed, comically captured by TPM’s Josh Marshall:
So let’s review. Lake opposes the law she had consistently said she supported. She denounces the court decision which ruled that the old law is in effect. She thinks the decision should be left to the states. She also opposes abortion. Also, Arizona is a state.
Women’s health is obviously the core issue here, but the self-own of Republicans spending half a century forcing through the courts a deeply unpopular political position and now seeing those chickens come home to roost is one of the pleasures of being old enough to have witnessed nearly the entire story arc.
Loud And Proud
Sometimes the truth hurts:
2024 Ephemera
- TPM’s Josh Marshall: Yep, The Polls Are Shifting To Biden
- LOL: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) angles for a bipartisan rebrand, the Texas Tribune reports.
- NBC News: Election worker turnover has reached historic highs ahead of the 2024 vote, new data shows
Here We Go Again
It’s time to start paying attention again to the antics of the Crazy Caucus in the House.
Under siege from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), the speakership of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is once again hanging in the balance. As Punchbowl put it this morning, “it’s clear now the Louisiana Republican has a very stark choice in front of him — pass a Ukraine aid bill or remain speaker.”
No one except Johnson gives a hoot about his fate, but the fate of poor Ukraine is bound up in the internal tribalism of the Republican Party with a big assist from Russia, whose propaganda efforts Republicans admit they have swallowed hook, line, and sinker.
Trump Owns This
WaPo: “Six years after the Trump administration’s controversial decision to withdraw from the pact, the restraints have fallen away, one by one, leaving Iran closer to nuclear weapons capability than at any time in the country’s history, according to confidential inspection reports and interviews with officials and experts who closely monitor Iran’s progress.”
‘Despicable And Consequently Very Serious’
The woman who stole Ashley Biden’s diary and sold it to James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas was sentenced to a month in jail by a federal judge in Manhattan.
Dumb And Dumber
Right-wing provocateurs Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman have agreed to pay up to $1.25 million in fines in a settlement with New York Attorney General Letitia James for their 2020 robocall campaign to suppress the Black vote. The dumb-and-dumber duo has already been fined $5.1 million by the FEC and pleaded guilty to criminal charges in Ohio arising from the scheme.
Women Beat Men
For the first time, more TV viewers watched the NCAA women’s basketball national championship game than watched the men’s championship game.
Preach, Sister!
In her latest Vanity Fair piece, Molly Jong-Fast writes:
The situation we’re in, and will be in for the next seven months, is without precedent. And there is no handbook for US media outlets covering the rise of authoritarianism on its own shores.
She brought that same spirit to MSNBC’s Morning Joe yesterday:
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Full Panic Mode Kari Lake
Whatever happens in Arizona in November, we got a preview of the difficulty Republican candidates will have in states where high-stakes ballot initiatives literally put abortion on the ballot. Shortly after Arizona’s high court ruled that the state must go back to the 1864 abortion law which forbids virtually every abortion, Kari Lake, probable GOP Senate nominee (and governor over the water) released a remarkable statement. She first denounced the 1864 law, which she said she supported as recently as last fall. She said she opposed today’s ruling. She then demanded Gov. Katie Hobbs and the Republican state legislature “come up with an immediate common sense solution that Arizonans can support.” She then said that the decision will be up to voters in the ballot initiative that will be on the November ballot — that is, the initiative she actually opposes.
Continue reading “Full Panic Mode Kari Lake”What A Time To Remind Voters What Happens When Abortion Is Left To The States
Look, when paving the way for the highest court in the land to overturn the federal right to an abortion becomes your legacy and then completely backfires during every election in the wake of said overturning — you’re in a tough spot!
Continue reading “What A Time To Remind Voters What Happens When Abortion Is Left To The States”Arizona Supreme Court Greenlights Near-Total Abortion Ban, Making November Ballot Fight Existential
The Arizona Supreme Court Tuesday supplanted the state’s 15-week abortion ban with a near-total one dating from 1864, making existential a proposal to protect abortion rights organizers are currently working to get onto the ballot this fall.
Continue reading “Arizona Supreme Court Greenlights Near-Total Abortion Ban, Making November Ballot Fight Existential”New Bill Would Mean Open Season In Georgia For MAGA Voter Roll Challengers Like True The Vote
A new, Republican-backed Georgia election bill that has been sent to the governor’s desk has the potential to inject chaos into the upcoming election cycle if signed into law.
Continue reading “New Bill Would Mean Open Season In Georgia For MAGA Voter Roll Challengers Like True The Vote”AZ Abortion Ruling
The court decision out of Arizona reminds us there are lots of unknowns still to reveal themselves over the course of this election. This is a pretty big one. The state court ruled that Dobbs means the near complete ban on abortion under an 1864 law must be enforced in the state. If I’m understanding the ruling, it is for the moment stayed. So it doesn’t go into effect today. But it likely will pretty soon. Arizona abortion rights advocates say they already have sufficient signatures to get an abortion ballot initiative on the ballot for November. That’s not confirmed yet. But these groups have a lot of experience knowing the number of excess signatures required to be certain you’re going to get on the ballot. So it’s a safe assumption that that ballot initiative will be on the ballot. It’s just not certain.
So what we seem to be looking at is a situation in which abortion will become illegal and the only recourse is to win that ballot initiative in November. That’s disastrous near-term for Arizona women and potentially very good news for every Democrat on the ballot in the state.
Continue reading “AZ Abortion Ruling”Yep, The Polls Are Shifting To Biden
I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to be too focused on polls more than six months before a presidential election. But since polls have had such a big impact on the political mood and almost everything about how Democrats see their candidate, their coalition and the election itself I think it’s important to keep an eye on them. Or rather, since you’re inundated with them via commentary, it’s worth actually looking at the polls themselves, especially when they’re in flux.
All to that end, for months President Biden has been between 2 and 4 points behind in the polls — basically since late summer. But over the course of March that’s reversed and the average of recent polls puts him either tied or slightly ahead.
Let’s look.
Continue reading “Yep, The Polls Are Shifting To Biden”Donald Trump Wrings The Last Drop Of Dignity From Lindsey Graham’s Tortured Soul
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
The Honorable Lickspittle From South Carolina
For the rest of his natural life, any mention of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) should begin and end with this all-timer:
The subsequent eight years have not been kind to Graham, deservedly. No amount of obsequiousness can satisfy Trump. Each lick of Trump’s boot costs Graham a part of his soul, which Trump happily pockets and uses to demean Graham again further the next time. Graham’s descent into his own personal Trump hell has been epic to watch, like a Greek tragedy or a fabled character of lore, done in by his own shamelessness and weakness of spirit.
And so it was that Graham found himself Monday reprising his role as a Trump punching bag. After Trump’s principle-free declaration that he supports “states rights” on abortion, a baldfaced political move to try to win re-election, Graham “respectfully” disagreed. (We’ll leave the irony of a South Carolinian opposing the “states-rights” position for another day.)
In response, Trump unleashed an afternoon-long tirade against Graham on social media, best captured by this gutting line: “I blame myself for Lindsey Graham, because the only reason he won in the Great State of South Carolina is because I Endorsed him!”
Graham, it seems, can’t help himself. He’s stuck in a cycle of asserting his independence of thought and action then getting smacked down by Trump for such insolence, at which point Graham submits, only to reinitiate the cycle again on his own the next time. It’s a perpetual smackdown machine.
Graham has abandoned his principles, compromised what he held out as his true beliefs, and sacrificed the good people of Ukraine on the altar of Trump. In return for what? He still has his Senate seat, but little else.
A Daylong Backlash Against Trump On Abortion
Trump’s dual play of claiming credit for overturning Roe while abandoning for the moment his abortion-foe allies, fooled a few journalists (not all), but most people saw it clearly for what it was.
Trump will try to low-key his anti-abortion position until he’s re-elected, then of course all bets are off on what new draconian measures he will support in order to pay back the supporters he temporarily sidelined.
Don’t read that to mean that it should work politically. He’s an easy target now. His “low-key” states-rights position necessarily means he is in favor of every hardline law that’s been passed at the state level so far and will be passed in the future. And of course it’s fair game to assume that he would sign a national abortion ban, forcing blue states into the post-Dobbs regime. He’s really fooling no one:
- TPM’s Kate Riga: Trump Bets That Voters Will Buy His Feigned Moderation On Abortion
- TPM’s Nicole Lafond: Trump Couched His Non-Answer On Abortion In IVF Messaging Cleanup
- NYT: On Abortion, Trump Chose Politics Over Principles
- Aaron Blake: Trump’s cynical punt on abortion
Democrats Weren’t Fooled By Trump’s Gambit Either
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey:
The Politics Of Abortion Has Indeed Changed … Dramatically
Here’s a microcosm of the tectonic shift in abortion politics in the personage of Laura Ingraham, via @Acyn:
April 8, 2024:
Aug. 9, 2023:
Dec. 20, 2022:
Good Read
TPM’s Josh Kovensky: What Exactly Do The Christian Nationalists Want?
THANK YOU!
We did it folks! Three-quarters of the way through TPM’s annual membership drive, we hit our target of 1,000 new members. We 100% could not have done it without you. A huge thank you from all of us at TPM!
A sizable chunk of our new members were Morning Memo readers who hadn’t yet become TPM members. My personal thanks to you. Before taking on Morning Memo almost 18 months ago, I had not written regularly in more than a decade. It’s been great getting back in the saddle and connecting with readers old and new. You can always drop me a line (email address here; use MM in the subject line) with tips, feedback, or concerns. Rave reviews accepted, too 😁!
Trump In Desperation Mode With First Criminal Trial Looming
Trump is about to face criminal justice for the first time, and his legal team had saved up a batch of last-minute Hail Marys to try to fend it off. With the hush-money trial beginning Monday, here’s the latest:
- Appeal court judge rejected Trump’s last ditch effort to move the trial to a different venue and thus delay it.
- Trump’s team signaled that it would sue the trial judge to try to get his gag order overturned.
- All of this is on top of an existing motion to recuse the judge over bogus conflict of interest claims with his daughter’s work.
None of this is likely to succeed in delaying the trial, but we’ll be watching.
Jack Smith Files His Immunity Brief With SCOTUS
Trump’s immunity case before the Supreme Court slumbers along, with Special Counsel Jack Smith filing his well-argued brief.
Keep An Eye On This
The Daily Beast: Trump’s $175 Million Bond Is Even Shadier Than It Looks
Ukraine’s Fate Will Be Determined By Fools Like This
Newly installed RNC co-chair Michael Whatley grouped Ukraine with China and Iran as “aggressive” U.S. adversaries:
This Makes Me So Happy
The NCAA women’s basketball championship game Sunday was the most-watched basketball game at any level in five years. Here’s how it stacks up against other major sporting events, according to Richard Deitsch:
To put the South Carolina-Iowa viewership in perspective, the game topped:
- Every World Series game since Game 7 of the 2019 World Series
- Every NBA Finals game since Game 5 of the 2017 NBA Finals
- Every Daytona 500 since 2006
- Every Masters final round viewership since 2001
- All but four college football games in 2023
Another amazing factoid: The three most-watched women’s basketball games ever were Iowa’s last three games in the tourney, in descending order:
- Iowa’s championship game loss to South Carolina: 18.7 million viewers
- Iowa’s Final Four win over UConn: 14.2 million viewers
- Iowa’s Elite Eight win over LSU: 12.3 million viewers
The previous most-watched women’s basketball game was Iowa’s loss to LSU in last year’s championship game: a mere 9.9 million viewers.
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Scenes From The Solar Eclipse
For anyone in the path of totality, the solar eclipse can be an exciting moment to get a front-row seat to one of astronomy’s most incredible coincidences. Every year or two the moon passes directly between Earth and the sun, casting a shadow and completely blocking the sun from a swath of the planet. These events draws people from around the world to the path of totality, hoping to witness the magical moment when the world goes dark.
If you weren’t one of those people this time — or maybe didn’t have the right protective eyewear — you can still get a good look at the eclipse. From Mexico to Maine photographers documented this year’s solar event and it’s probably better than what you would see in person.
People gather to watch the eclipse in Mexico City
Moon begins to eclipse the sun, seen in Mazatlan, Mexico
Moon almost fully eclipsing the sun, seen in Mazatlan, Mexico
Total eclipse, seen from Mazatlan, Mexico
People watch the total eclipse in Torreon, Mexico
Shadows of the eclipse seen in Guadalajara, Mexico
The sky over Torreon, Mexico during the eclipse
A man wears a mask to watch the eclipse in Mexico City
The diamond-ring effect is seen in Fort Worth, Texas
Total solar eclipse, seen from Brady, Texas
The moon begins its descent below the sun’s horizon, as seen from Brady, Texas
Watching the eclipse from a rooftop in New York City
A family watches the eclipse in New York City
Total solar eclipse seen from Niagra Falls, New York
People watching the eclipse in Niagra Falls, New York
The moon begins to eclipse the sun in Niagra Falls, New York
Total solar eclipse, seen from Bloomington, Indiana
People watch the eclipse in Washington D.C.
Patrons of the Masters Tournament watch the eclipse in Augusta, Georgia
