Kamala Harris Puts A Wobbly Donald Trump Back On His Heels

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

‘Sucker Punch’

The Trump campaign had at least a month of forewarning that President Biden ending his re-election bid was a plausible scenario, and they let every reporter within earshot know that if that happened they were ready. It did, and they weren’t.

GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance fessed up to donors in Minnesota over the weekend that Kamala Harris has thrown the Trump campaign for a loop:

All of us were hit with a little bit of a political sucker punch. The bad news is that Kamala Harris does not have the same baggage as Joe Biden, because whatever we might have to say, Kamala is a lot younger. And Kamala Harris is obviously not struggling in the same ways that Joe Biden did.

A sucker punch is a cheap shot, delivered without warning to an unsuspecting victim. It’s fitting that Vance would couch it in terms of victimization, the perpetual posture of MAGA adherents. Their constant whining about fairness grew out of conservatives’ own decades-long misinterpretation of special interests on the left as animated by “grievance” politics. The result was a transformation of older white voters into a special interest group of their own, with a parallel set of grievances that mirrored what they had railed against for so long. That’s how you get canards like reverse discrimination against whites.

Back in the real world, Harris’ ascension to the nomination was not without warning or time to prep. The failure of the Trump campaign to do so effectively remains inexplicable and a bit mystifying. They seemed wedded to what they thought was a winning campaign strategy against Biden. They may have been right about that; we’ll never know.

But in the meantime, there’s a campaign to be run, and Trump finds himself with an opponent whose age and vigor isn’t an issue but more importantly who has captured the zeitgeist in a way that Trump craves and can’t possibly reproduce himself. His mass appeal has always been narrower than the broad cultural currents of our time. He’s pro wrestling, not the Olympics.

MAGA’s complaining about it all being unfair is weak sauce in the face of the transcendent energy and enthusiasm Harris is initially generating.

Trump Tries To Return Anti-Immigration Focus

  • The Trump campaign’s first major attack ad on Kamala Harris goes back to the well with an anti-immigration appeal, as if Joe Biden had never left the race. The ad buy is north of $12 million and is on the air in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
  • TPM’s Khaya Himmelman: MAGA Resurrects Most Vile Non-Citizen Voting Hysteria As It Flails In Attacking Harris

Not Even Remotely Reassuring

Given a chance to disavow interpretations of his recent comments that his Christian supporters won’t have to vote again after 2024 because he’s going to “fix” things, Trump bobbed and weaved but offered no concrete assurance:

On The Trail

2024 Ephemera

  • Harris tacks close to Biden on abortion.
  • David Dayen talks to Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), the only member of Congress who has worked for Kamala Harris.
  • “White Dudes For Harris” raise more than $4 million with live-streamed event.

Iran Meddling In U.S. Election

Iran continues to try to sow chaos in the United States through misinformation campaigns and is now also using a covert online influence campaign to undermine Donald Trump’s candidacy, the U.S. intel community assesses.

Trump Shooting Update

  • Donald Trump agreed to do a standard victim interview with the FBI about the attempt on his life.
  • The gunman used an alias to make 25 online gun-related purchases between the spring of 2023 and the first half of this year, the FBI revealed. He has also bought materials used in explosives six times.
  • The gunman’s online search history included information about power plants, mass-shooting events, improvised explosive devices and the assassination attempt on Slovakia’s prime minister in May, according to the FBI.
  • Just stop:

Quote Of The Day

The court asserted it was making a ruling for the ages. That isn’t true. The court made a ruling for one – a former president.

President Joe Biden, castigating the Supreme Court for its ruling on presidential immunity in Trump v. United States in speech at the LBJ Library in Austin calling for reforming the high court

Wayne LaPierre Banned From NRA

A New York judge has banned former NRA honcho Wayne LaPierre, 74, from holding a paid position with the organization for a decade.

Remembering The My Lai Massacre

With the discovery that Army Lt. William L. Calley, Jr., the only U.S. service member convicted in the My Lai massacre in Vietnam in 1968, died at the age of 80 back in the April without public notice, let me draw your attention to one of the few heroes of that horrific day.

Hugh Thompson was an Army helicopter pilot who along with his two crew members intervened to stop the massacre, positioning his chopper between Vietnamese civilians and advancing U.S. troops. He was able to rescue some civilians and reported the massacre up the chain of command, which eventually led to the operation being halted. He later testified at Calley’s court-martial.

WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 6, 1998: Former US Army warrant officer Hugh Thompson, Jr. (L) and former Army Specialist Lawrence Colburn (R) react 06 March after making a rubbing of fallen comrade Glenn Andreotta’s name from the Vietnam Veterans Memorial in Washington, DC. Thompson, Colburn and Andreotta were awarded the Soldier’s Medal for heroism stemming from actions taken by the three to save civilian lives during the My Lai Massacre in March of 1968 in the Quang Ngai Province, South Vietnam. (Photo credit should read JESSICA PERSSON/AFP via Getty Images)

After his military career ended, Thompson wound up living for a time in my hometown of Lafayette, Louisiana, flying helicopters for the offshore oil and gas industry. It wasn’t until the 1990s, around the 30th anniversary of the massacre, that Thompson garnered recognition for his exemplary conduct on that black day in U.S. military history. He died of cancer in 2006 at the age of 62.

Photo Of The Day

From the farthest-flung Olympic venue – Tahiti – comes this epic shot of Brazilian surfer Gabriel Medina:

TOPSHOT – Brazil’s Gabriel Medina reacts after getting a large wave in the 5th heat of the men’s surfing round 3, during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, in Teahupo’o, on the French Polynesian Island of Tahiti, on July 29, 2024. (Photo by Jerome BROUILLET / AFP) / ALTERNATE CROP (Photo by JEROME BROUILLET/AFP via Getty Images)

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JD Vance Is Honored You Think He’s A Weird Freak

Much ink has been spilled on Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) being a huge weirdo with dangerous views on everything from women’s bodies to race to soft drinks. Even without the cartoonishly bizarre (and debunked) sofa hoax, Vance has emerged as one of the most unpopular vice presidential choices of all time.

Continue reading “JD Vance Is Honored You Think He’s A Weird Freak”

MAGA Resurrects Most Vile Non-Citizen Voting Hysteria As It Flails In Attacking Harris

As Donald Trump and his allies struggle to hit presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris with anything of substance, MAGA world is resurrecting its fixation on the myth of non-citizen voting. 

Continue reading “MAGA Resurrects Most Vile Non-Citizen Voting Hysteria As It Flails In Attacking Harris”

Are You on Team ‘Weird’?

In case you hadn’t noticed, over the course of the first week of the Kamala Harris presidential campaign, when it was hard to know what was real or what was happening, “weird” suddenly became a central part of the story. If this hasn’t locked on your radar yet, this is the gist: It’s hard to know precisely where it started, but Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota has gotten the most attention for pushing and then amplifying it. Quite simply, he said, guys like Trump and Vance are just “weird.” And along with the dominating freight train of Kamala Week One, that message, that identification, seemed to connect in ways that “authoritarian” and “extremist” and “threat to democracy” never quite did. JD Vance is a big supporter of “menstrual surveillance,” he’s got this weird snarling anger at women with no children. It may be bad and wrong, but everyone gets that its just … well, weird.

And look, JD Vance is super weird. But what’s been most interesting to me is that over the last handful of days I’ve had several friends reach out to me and ask, “Where are you on ‘weird’?”

They don’t feel the need for any additional explanation. And they’re right.

Continue reading “Are You on Team ‘Weird’?”

Trump Promises 2024 Is The Last Time We’ll Have To Vote … Wait, Wut?

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

How Much More Warning Does Anyone Need?

In his speech Friday to the Christian Right “Believers Summit” in West Palm Beach, hosted by Turning Point Action, former President Donald Trump exhorted the audience of religious believers to vote in November because the stakes are so high but quickly reassured them that this will be the last time they will have to vote:

Trump didn’t merely veer into weird, off-the-cuff remark that can be waved away as idle ramblings. This has been a line he’s used repeatedly in recent speeches. There were still some half-hearted efforts to parse the line into meaninglessness, such as this helpless shrug from the WaPo:

Democrats and others interpreted the comments as signaling how a second Trump presidency would be run, a reminder that he previously said he would not be a dictator upon returning to office “except for Day One.” …

The Trump campaign, however, says the comments, made at the event hosted by the conservative group Turning Point Action, were about how Trump would unite the country.

On the one hand … on the other hand … etc.

When a former president who tried to stay in office via an auto-coup is now the frontrunner to return to that office and is assuring his most diehard supporters that they only have to make the effort to vote one last time, you should take that as the clarion call it is. No excuses.

On High Alert

WaPo: As Harris steps up to face Trump, far-right attacks follow

More From The JD Vance Oppo Files

Exhibit A:

Exhibit B: Inside the powerful Peter Thiel network that anointed JD Vance

Exhibit C:

2024 Ephemera

The reordered presidential race is still settling out, but it’s safe to say that Kamala Harris has already avoided the worst of the plausible scenarios: an immediate widening of the gap into a hard-to-overcome deficit to Trump. On balance, the polls so far are showing her at least holding her own and in several polls narrowing the gap with Trump nationwide.

  • Kamala Harris’ campaign raised more than $200 million in its first week.
  • Bernie is bargaining in return for his endorsement of Harris.
  • Will Harris help down-ballot Dems?
  • WSJ poll: Trump leads Harris 49%-47% among registered voters nationwide, a smaller gap than the six-point lead the previous found that Trump had over Biden before he withdrew from the race.

Biden Goes Public With SCOTUS Reform Proposal

With an op-ed in the Washington Post and a speech at the LBJ library in Austin commemorating the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, President Biden is rolling out his proposal for Supreme Court reform today. His proposal includes 18-year term limits for the justices and a constitutional amendment to reverse the high court’s ruling on presidential immunity.

Trump Shooting Update

  • FBI confirms bullet or bullet fragment struck Trump’s ear.
  • NYT: Gunman at Trump Rally Was Often a Step Ahead of the Secret Service
  • WaPo: Trump team complained they were not told of suspicious-person reports before shooting

Power Projection

Ruth Ben-Ghiat: Trump’s Projection Of Strength After Assassination Attempt Borrows From Authoritarian Playbook

DOJ Settles With Strzok And Page

Former senior FBI special agent Peter Strzok and former FBI lawyer Lisa Page will receive $1.2 million and $800,000 respectively in a settlement with the Justice Department of their claims that their text private messages were leaked in violation of their privacy rights. The revelation of the texts critical of Donald Trump and of the pair’s extramarital affair ended their FBI careers. Both had been part of the separate investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 election and Hillary Clinton’s email server. Strzok continues to pursue a related claim that his firing was a violation of his free speech and due process rights.

Mark Meadows Goes To SCOTUS In Georgia RICO Case

Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows is now asking the Supreme Court to move the Georgia RICO case against him from state to federal court.

Good Read

Rolling Stone talks with the CIA analyst who confirmed Russian meddling in the 2016 election to benefit Donald Trump:

The lead author of the CIA report that would haunt Trump’s presidency wasn’t a Hillary Clinton partisan or a ringer for the CIA leadership’s personal preferences, as MAGA conspiracy theorists have claimed. He doesn’t have a book to sell, he’s not running for office, and you won’t find him in a cable news greenroom.

Read more.

I Had No Idea The Number Was This Large

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s long-running stunt of bussing migrants to Democratic-controlled cities has now transported nearly 120,000 people over the last two years.

Iowa’s Abortion Ban Takes Effect Today

A new six-week abortion ban, down from the previous 22-week ban, goes into effect today in Iowa, after the state Supreme Court cleared the way for the law last month.

Still Puzzling Over SCOTUS’ Immunity Decision

The NYT’s Adam Liptak takes a stab at the comparing the worst elements of the Supreme Court’s immunity decision with everything the conservative justices claimed as recently as Dobbs were the most egregious overreaches of Roe v. Wade.

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Trump’s Projection Of Strength After Assassination Attempt Borrows From Authoritarian Playbook

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

In the days since the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, supporters of the former president have used the incident to project an image of power.

Continue reading “Trump’s Projection Of Strength After Assassination Attempt Borrows From Authoritarian Playbook”

JD Vance, Awkward and Discomfiting Ragelord

One thing that has driven JD Vance’s rising unpopularity is his crusade against people without children. He’s proposed punitive tax policies to punish people who do these “bad” things like not having children and he’s even suggested diluting the voting rights of non-parents.

The odd thing about the tax policy side of this is that the U.S. tax code is actually filled with tax advantages and subsidies for people with kids. And generally speaking no one has much problem with that. There are dependent deductions, a refundable child tax credit, even something as obvious as public schools. Public schools are generally funded by property taxes. And almost everyone pays those, childful and childless alike, either directly or indirectly. Lots of people have kids and U.S. political culture is pretty pro-kid and pro-family (in the narrow sense of the phrase rather than the right-wing Christian sense). So generally it’s uncontroversial, even something politicians go out of their way to support.

Continue reading “JD Vance, Awkward and Discomfiting Ragelord”

Thanks, Folks

As we go into the weekend I want to thank everyone who’s contributed so far to this year’s drive for the TPM Journalism Fund. We hit the half way point to our goal of raising $500,000 early yesterday morning. Even though we’ve gotten a lot more experience at holding these drives they remain nerve-wracking. They amount to a collective trust-fall – hopefully – into the arms of the larger TPM community. So it always feels really good, at many different levels, when you’re there for us. If you have had a moment to contribute yet you can click right here. It’s easy and quick.

We’ve always gained quite a few new members recently. Which is wonderful. And we want to welcome all of you. We’re still trying to understand the precise reasons for it.

One reason seems to be our new membership system in itself, by which I mean the software that runs it. As you know, our business is almost entirely based on membership fees. So a smoothly running system to manage memberships in all its dimensions – processing fees, authenticating users, record keeping and user experience – is mission critical. (Neither the old or the new system ever touch or store your credit cards. For that we use the industry-standard security and fulfillment of Stripe dot com.)

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Officials Were Prepped For A Dangerous 2024 Election — And That Was Before The Attempted Assassination

For election officials across the country, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and, less directly, the turnover at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, have brought into stark focus just how tumultuous the election environment has become since the 2020 election. 

Continue reading “Officials Were Prepped For A Dangerous 2024 Election — And That Was Before The Attempted Assassination”