Trump Will Be Happy With Supreme Court Arguments On Immunity

The Supreme Court conservatives seemed to solidify around a middle-ground position on Donald Trump’s claims of absolute presidential immunity Thursday, a win by another name for the former president as it would add months of delay to the Jan. 6 case.

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Conservative Justices Appear Poised To At Least Limit Scope Of Jan. 6 Case Against Trump

The Supreme Court heard Donald Trump’s attempt to knock the legs out from under Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 case on Thursday. The arguments come over four months after Smith initially asked the justices to decide whether Trump could claim sweeping immunity to protect him from prosecution related to the insurrection.

The conservative justices at times at least appeared skeptical of the Trump team argument that the former president has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution, but were primarily concerned about the chilling effect a ruling on the matter might have on future presidents.

The arguments began at 10 a.m. ET.

Catch up on our live coverage below:

Our Long National RCP Nightmare Is Over

For most of this election season so far, FiveThirtyEight hasn’t surfaced its own presidential race average. Compiling these averages in a sophisticated and honest way is actually kind of complicated. (They explain their methodology here.) We used to play in this space with PollTracker. So I know from experience. For me it’s not that I put so much weight on the specific number. It’s just a simpler way of visualizing the trend over time.

Well, now they’ve finally rolled theirs out. So I don’t have to be so reliant on RealClearPolitics, which has both a clumsy methodology and goes to comical length to add or not add polls to juice their favored candidate. All that said, the absolute averages as of today as remarkably similar. Trump up .4% on FiveThirtyEight and .3% on RCP. This reminds us of some of the ironies and … how can I say it, melancholy and ennui of complexity. The FiveThirtyEight model is HUGELY complex and sophisticated. It factors in all sorts of different variables. It incorporates findings from individual states into the national averages and vice versa. And yet for all this statistical leg work the averages as of this moment are essentially identical.

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The Man Behind The Jan. 6 ‘Pence Card’ Memo Is Now Pushing ‘The Mother Of All Twitter Files’

A key player in the push to overturn the 2020 presidential election now has set his sights on Elon Musk. 

Ivan Raiklin, a former Green Beret and associate of retired Gen. Michael Flynn, is currently fixated on a new scheme: to have Musk use his position as CEO of the social media company X, formerly known as Twitter, to publish private messages from the “Deep State.” In various appearances on right-wing broadcasts and events, Raiklin has suggested this would expose a plot against former President Trump and others.  

Raiklin has described his vision as a natural extension of the “Twitter Files” project Musk launched in late 2022 when, shortly after taking over the social media company, the mogul released some of its internal documents to a group of media figures including Bari Weiss, Michael Shellenberger, and Matt Taibbi. The underwhelming exposé merely highlighted conversations among Twitter’s former members of management as they made admittedly fraught decisions about how to handle a New York Post story on Hunter Biden’s hacked laptop. Experts largely dismissed the project as highlighting routine content moderation. Musk and his team eventually descended into infighting

Inspired by Musk’s lackluster 2022 project, Raiklin has prepared a document he has dubbed the “Deep State Target List,” identifying over 350 people and institutions whose direct messages he wants Musk to publicize. 

One of the venues where Raiklin outlined his plan was a Vegas conference hosted by the far- right ​​Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association earlier this month. Videos posted by Raiklin show him detailing the scheme in a Q&A session where he wondered if the assembled law enforcement agents might be willing to go “to the maximum level” to punish the targets on his list for unspecified crimes. 

“What if, hypothetically, I communicated with Michael Shellenberger and Matt Taibbi and convinced them to get Elon Musk to do what’s known as the ‘Mother of all Twitter Files’ where he releases the direct messages for the lifetime of the account of all the federal government actors previous and current that have weaponized against all of us citizens throughout the entire country?” Raiklin asked.

Raiklin has published his full “Target list” of figures whose direct messages and geolocation data he wants exposed on the encrypted app Telegram. The hundreds of names include federal officials ranging from former President Barack Obama to Trump’s first chief of staff, Reince Priebus. Raiklin’s targets also include members of the media and witnesses in various investigations into Trump. 

Raiklin is no stranger to intense conspiracy theories or explosive documents. In the leadup to the 2020 presidential race, he and other intelligence veterans associated with Flynn were vocal promoters of Trump’s baseless allegations that fraud played a part in his election defeat. Raiklin was also the author of a memo titled “Operation Pence Card” that detailed a plan to have the former vice president block the electoral certification of Trump’s loss. That document was shared by Trump in December 2020 as his legal team coalesced around a similar plan, which served as the basis for their efforts to have the election results officially overturned on January 6, 2021. 

The effort to obtain DMs is also not the first time Raiklin has allegedly sought personal material as part of a political pressure campaign. According to a Republican whistleblower, Raiklin was involved in a plot to obtain negative information about Republican members of Congress as Flynn and other allies  pushed them to back baseless audits of the 2020 race. 

Raiklin did not respond directly to a request for comment. However, on Telegram, he posted TPM’s message and encouraged followers to target this reporter for an investigation. 

“Can y’all do a deep dive on who this guy is before I consider responding? Would like to know all of his biases, relationships and IQ first,” Raiklin wrote. “DM me your findings of any elicit activity by him, the org he works for, neighbors, friends and family.”

Raiklin’s new “Deep State” list is color coded by category and begins with people identified as being involved in the “unmasking” of Flynn as participating in a phone call with a Russian diplomat. Revelations Flynn lied about that contact — including to former Vice President Mike Pence — led to his ouster as Trump’s first national security adviser. Raiklin’s list also includes figures involved in various investigations into Trump and supposed “censorship” at Twitter. 

TPM spoke to one person identified on the list who said they were concerned about targeted harassment. The list includes people who have received threats in conjunction with the various conspiracy theories promoted by Trump and his allies. It also questionably links some figures to events such as the pandemic. For these reasons — and the fact Raiklin has explicitly described it as a “target” document — we will not be identifying individual figures on the list, outside of the aforementioned public figures. 

Needless to say, it’s a far reaching list of people and institutions that Raiklin has baselessly suggested are involved in a murky series of vaguely defined high crimes. Raiklin is currently involved in the nationwide tour for Flynn’s documentary about himself. Screenings for the movie include a presentation of what Raiklin has dubbed a “Deep State Wall,” an actual, physical wall plastered with paper printouts connected with string. In a filmed tour of the display earlier this month, Raiklin boasted that “each one of these sections is easily one to two hours discussion” and suggested it exposes the supposed links in a “Deep State” plot to target Trump and his “non-establishment” allies, namely Flynn. 

“Elon Musk, if you’re listening in, please release the DMs of every single person on this wall. Every one,” Raiklin said. 

Raiklin’s tour also provided some insight into his focus on Pence. He suggested the former vice president had been “foisted” on Trump by establishment Republicans at a moment when Flynn was being considered for the post. 

The idea that Musk, one of the richest men in the world, would engage with this might seem far fetched. However, particularly since taking over Twitter in 2022, the entrepreneur has extensively promoted far-right rhetoric and conspiracy theories. And the “Twitter Files” project showed Musk’s willingness to release private correspondence obtained through his role at the company for political ends. The publication of those private messages and documents reportedly led to threats against the subjects of the stories.

Along with repeatedly invoking Musk, Raiklin has sent social media messages to Taibbi and Shellenberger, two of the reporters who worked on the “Twitter Files” project. For his part, Shellenberger told TPM via email that he had never heard of Raiklin. After we explained in further detail — including sharing links to posts where Raiklin had named him and cited his work specifically — Shellenberger suggested he did not even understand how he might have inspired the “Deep State” list.

“How does this involve me, exactly?” he asked. 

Taibbi did not respond to a request for comment. 

TPM also sent a message to Twitter’s press email, which, at one point during Musk’s tenure, was answering all requests with poop emojis. We received a response that said, “Busy now, please check back later.”

Musk did not respond to a request for comment sent to him directly on Wednesday. He spent the afternoon sharing Shellenberger’s work on the site he has named “X.” And, while he hasn’t engaged with Raiklin’s endeavor, Musk made clear he is eager to go after some of  the media institutions mentioned in Raiklin’s “Deep State” list. 

“This graph illustrates the woke mind virus taking over legacy media,” Musk declared on Wednesday alongside a random chart that purported to show an increase in coverage of “racism” at four major newspapers. “Infection rate almost 100%. But now it will die.”

Raiklin’s dream of getting Musk, Shellenberger, and Taibbi to take on his target list may just be a feverish fantasy, but it is a sign of something far more real and consequential. The endeavor is a stark example of how some of the people who were involved in the efforts to overturn the last election are continuing to promote increasingly militant conspiracy theories to their audiences ahead of the next one. 

In February, Raiklin went on the “Infowars” broadcast hosted by Alex Jones, who was heavily involved in the protests against Trump’s 2020 loss that turned violent on January 6. The pair spun a new narrative with echoes of QAnon that suggested Raiklin’s “Twitter files” plan was the only way to stop Trump from being killed. 

“The next move is assassination,” Jones declared in between dramatic operatic music and shots of Raiklin’s list. 

“They’re going to stop him at all costs,” Raiklin said of Trump, adding, “The end of that continuum is a political assassination.”

Raiklin went on to suggest Trump’s enemies might “shut the internet down” and that Musk could use the “counter strategy” of releasing their private correspondence to “stop them in their tracks.” 

“This will be the Twitter files nuclear just bombshell … in exposing these scum,” Raiklin said. “They’re not going to survive that level of scrutiny.”

Along with showing how active the January 6 conspiracy theorists remain, Raiklin’s target list illustrates how Musk has emerged as an inspiration and focal point in these circles. At the close of their broadcast, Jones asked Raiklin for his “analysis” of the billionaire. Raiklin pointed to things Musk has posted on X before making a confident declaration. 

“He’s like us,” Raiklin said of Musk. “I think he’s cut from the same cloth.” 

18 People Indicted In Arizona Fake Electors Scheme

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Just A Gobsmacking Amount Of Important News

Good lord what a two-day run of news we’re having. Today’s Morning Memo is going to focus on four things: Trump prosecutions, abortion, campus protests, and carbon emissions. A lot of other stuff happened, but we’ll get to that (maybe) in future MMs. Let’s dive in.

Hello, Arizona!

A sweeping state indictment in Trump’s 2020 fake electors scheme targets 11 (presumably all in-state) named defendants and seven as-yet-unnamed (and presumably all out-of-state) defendants who haven’t yet been served.

The case was investigated and is being brought by Attorney General Kris Mayes (D).

The Defendants

The 11 named defendants are:

  • Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party and Trump fake elector
  • Michael Ward, Kelli Ward’s husband and Trump fake elector
  • Tyler Bowyer, Trump fake elector
  • Jacob Hoffman, Trump fake elector
  • Anthony Kern, Trump fake elector
  • James Lamon, Trump fake elector
  • Greg Safsten, former executive director of the Arizona Republican Party and Trump fake elector
  • Nancy Cottle, Trump fake elector
  • Loraine Pellegrino, Trump fake elector
  • Robert Montgomery, Trump fake elector
  • Samuel Moorhead, Trump fake elector

The seven redacted defendants, based on context and outside reporting, appear to be:

  • Mark Meadows
  • Rudy Giuliani
  • John Eastman
  • Boris Epshteyn
  • Christina Bobb
  • Jenna Ellis
  • Mike Roman

The Epshteyn indictment is a big deal given his central role in organizing Trump’s criminal defense team in the numerous cases against him. Bobb is a highly ironic defendant to have in an election interference case since she was just named the RNC’s new “election integrity” chief.

The Charges

  • Count 1: Conspiracy
  • Counts 2-3: Fraud
  • Counts 4-9: Forgery

Because the names of some of the defendants remain redacted in the indictment, it’s not entirely clear if each defendant is charged with all nine counts, but it appears that way based on the formatting of the redactions.

Among the unindicted conspirators in the case: Trump himself, Kenneth Chesebro, state Sen. Kelly Townsend, former state Rep. Mark Finchem, and former Arizona GOP lawyer Jack Wilenchik.

Trump Is An Unindicted Co-Conspirator In AZ And MI

What a twofer. On the same day Trump emerged as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Arizona fake electors indictment, an investigator in Michigan testified in open court that Trump is also an unindicted co-conspirator in that state’s fake electors scheme, along with Mark Meadows and Rudy Giuliani.

This Shouldn’t Be A Close Call At SCOTUS

The Supreme Court hears oral arguments at 10 a.m. ET today on Trump’s claim of presidential immunity from prosecution.

TPM’s Kate Riga will be live blogging the oral arguments here.

You’ll hear lots today about this being a momentous and historic case, but it really didn’t need to be. The Supreme Court could have kept this narrow and discrete, but by agreeing to take the case it’s looks to be on track to turn this into a more complicated matter than it needs to be. That’s by choice, their choice.

Trump will not be in attendance at the Supreme Court because he must attend his ongoing criminal trial in New York City.

Dueling Live Blogs At TPM!

The Trump criminal trial in the Manhattan hush money case continues this morning, with former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker back on the stand.

TPM’s Josh Kovensky will be at the courthouse live blogging the trial here.

One additional note: Judge Juan Merchan has not yet issued a ruling on whether Trump has violated the gag order imposed on him in the case. I expected the ruling yesterday and it’d be a little surprising if we don’t get it today.

Trump Was A Walking Classified Info Disaster

Important new reporting from ABC News on how Trump’s mishandling of and casual attitude toward classified information well pre-dated his absconding to Mar-a-Lago post-presidency with a trove of classified documents:

In interviews with investigators last year, former aides and national security officials who were close to Trump in the White House described a president who could erupt in anger when presented with intelligence he didn’t want to hear, who routinely reviewed and stored classified information in unsecured locations, and who had what some former officials described as “a cavalier attitude” toward the damage that could be done by its disclosure, according to sources.

Worth a read, both in the context of the Mar-a-Lago case and of Trump’s possible return to the Oval Office.

I Can’t Emphasis Enough How Bad SCOTUS Was Yesterday

The oral arguments over Idaho’s abortion ban and whether it trumps federal law that requires hospitals to give pregnant patients emergency medical case may have marked a new low for this court.

It was so bad that even Justice Amy Coney Barrett said she was “shocked” by the position Idaho was taking. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar (ironically, a former Miss Idaho) is as cool and collected a Supreme Court advocate as has ever argued there, but even she seemed genuinely dismayed by the lengths the conservative justices were willing to go to ignore settled law.

To catch up:

  • TPM’s live blog of the oral arguments
  • Kate Riga: Conservatives Weave Anti-Abortion Fantasyland To Allow Emergency Room Abortion Bans
  • Esther Choo: I’m an E.R. doc. Idaho’s argument to SCOTUS reveals an ignorance of what I do.
  • Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern: The Lawyer Defending Idaho’s Abortion Ban Irritated the One Justice He Needed on His Side

Arizona House Votes To Repeal Civil War-Era Abortion Ban

The third time was the charm. The Arizona House voted to repeal the newly revived Civil War-era abortion ban after three Republicans crossed the aisle and joined with all Democrats to push it over the finish line. (In retaliation for crossing the aisle, one of the Republicans was stripped of his committee assignment.) Two previous repeal efforts had been blocked by state House Republicans. The state Senate is expected to take up the repeal bill next week.

For The Right Wing, Campus Protests Are The New BLM

This week may end up marking the moment when Republicans and the far-right hijacked the campus protest movement and tried to turn it into the same bogeyman they made of Black Lives Matters protests in 2020.

Radical lefties needing to be taken down by force plays to the right’s pre-existing authoritarian tendencies, and is a handy election-year cudgel for Republicans. That’s an explosive combination that has little or nothing to do directly with Israel, Palestine, or the new wave of antisemitism in America.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s exploitive visit to Columbia University yesterday was one indication. Johnson echoed Republican senators who are clamoring for the National Guard to be dispatched Kent State-style to break up the protests at the Ivy league school. Another was Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) crowing about sending in the state police to the University of Texas campus in Austin to remove pro-Palestinian protestors. Nearly three dozen arrests were made there.

The complexities of U.S. policy toward Israel, Israel’s own internal politics, the plight of the Palestinians, and the tit-for-tat violence in the Middle East will be totally drowned out if right-wingers co-opt the issue for themselves as a pre-text for state violence.

Also Really Important!

The Biden administration is unveiling new regulations today to dramatically limit carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants. “Taken together, the regulations could deliver a death blow in the United States to coal, the fuel that powered the country for much of the last century but has caused global environmental damage,” the NYT reports.

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Chef’s Kiss

There’s going to be a lot to talk about tomorrow with these new fake electors indictments out of Arizona. In fact, there’s so much happening in the news at the moment it’s a bit hard to keep your head straight. But I wanted to note just one exquisite point. One of the indictees is Christina Bobb, OANN talking head turned Trump lawyer, who just last month was appointed as the new head of the RNC’s “election integrity” chief. So yes, the GOP’s head of election integrity has now been charged with election subversion and election fraud. So we’re off to a strong start.