Are Trump’s Pro-Wrestling Antics Getting Stale?

We hear a lot that the press is making all the same mistakes with Donald Trump that it did back in 2016. There are certainly many ways this is the case. But not in all the ways. Indeed, I think Trump has perversely and paradoxically benefited from one thing most news organizations have done very differently. They don’t carry his speeches live. They don’t report all his latest nonsense. I think this has been a net plus for him, especially in a rematch with Biden, since there’s less reminder of just how out there, unhinged and violence-inciting he is. That benefit is only starting to ebb now as we’re getting into the meat of the campaign proper and people really are hearing a lot of it. Thursday night’s debate will bring that to the fore.

Which brings us to the debate.

One thing I’m very curious about is whether certain parts of Trump’s schtick will just seem stale the third time.

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A Helpful Observation about Trump and Big Capital

I was reading a piece in Axios this morning that happened not only to be smart but also erudite. Surprise! When I looked at the byline: Felix Salmon. Okay, not a surprise. Axios actually publishes a lot of good stuff outside its narrowly political content. There’s good stuff there too. But on politics it’s mostly narrowly captive to DC conventional wisdom and conceits. But to the good Felix Salmon piece: he compares billionaire and business giving to and support of Trump to Pascal’s Wager: It makes sense to believe in God because if God exists you’ll be glad you did and if he doesn’t exist it won’t matter.

Salmon makes the point that high-profile business leaders have a big incentive to support Trump even if they want him to lose or at least think Biden would be a better President or better for the economy. If Trump wins your personal support could end up mattering a lot to your business or your company and vice versa. If Biden wins, he’s not going to try to retaliate against you for supporting Trump. Not how the Biden folks operate. This is a bit far fetched but I could even see how you might have a fiduciary responsibility to support Trump for just the same reason. I know it’s a bit more complicated than that. But the effect on your bottom line could be very, very real.

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Heritage Foundation Funds Blacklist Of Federal Workers

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Keeping A Blacklist And Checking It Twice

The Heritage Foundation is funding the creation of a blacklist of federal government workers who MAGA loyalists claim might obstruct the Trump II agenda, the Associated Press reported Monday.

The work of compiling the list of names of some 100 government employees is being done by a Kentucky fellow named Tom Jones and his American Accountability Foundation. The work is being financed with the help of a $100,000 “Heritage Innovation Prize” from the Heritage Foundation, long a bastion of Reagan conservatism in DC but now fully in MAGA mode. Heritage announced the prize winner back in May, referring to “the presence of anti-American bad actors burrowed into the administrative state.”

In announcing the prize, Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts touted it as effort to expose the “Deep State”:

“The weaponization of the federal government under President Joe Biden is only possible because of the deep state of entrenched Leftist bureaucrats in the White House and its agencies. I am proud to support the outstanding work of AAF in their fight to hold our government accountable and drain it of bad actors determined to undermine our constitutional republic and weaponize government against the American people, our economy, and our institutions.” 

For his part, Jones is a former staffer to Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who went on to run the Heritage Foundation, and to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). Jones also did oppo work for Sen. Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Notably, the plan is to publish the list online. A doxxing in the public square as it were, with all the obvious historical echoes, as the AP rightly notes:

The public list-making conjures for some the era of Joseph McCarthy, the senator who conducted grueling hearings into suspected communist sympathizers during the Cold War. The hearings were orchestrated by a top staffer, Roy Cohn, who became a confidant of a younger Trump.

As for the criteria used to determine who makes the list and how those criteria are applied, the AP provides this chilling methodology: “They’re relying in part on tips from his network of conservative contacts, including workers.”

Sobering …

WaPo:

[T]he nation is experiencing a lull in political unrest — in fact, one of the quietest periods that extremism researchers have recorded in recent years. Chief among the factors explaining the lack of political violence, analysts say, is a simple one: Trump’s supporters believe he will win the presidency. …

There’s little reason for pro-Trump extremist groups or radicalized MAGA fans to demonstrate when they foresee the presumptive Republican nominee coasting to victory over President Biden in five months and positioned to enact promised “retribution” against his enemies in seven, political violence trackers say.

This is consistent with what TPM’s Josh Kovensky found a couple of weeks ago when posed the question: Where Are the Proud Boys?

The problem, of course, is that the election is not rigged and it’s very close, so the risk is growing of the Furies being unleashed in the event of a very plausible Biden win.

Oy Vey

TPM’s Hunter Walker: Jan. 6 Prisoners Recorded A Podcast From Jail With A Camera Someone ‘Accidentally’ Gave Them

On My Reading List

John Ganz’s new book – “When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, and How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990s” –  is yielding book reviews that themselves are worthy of your time and attention. Among them, this reflection by historian Thomas Zimmer on the the origins of Trumpism.

House GOP Gonna House GOP

The usual performative stuff from the Crazy Caucus:

  • Exhibit A: “Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.) introduced a resolution Friday urging the Supreme Court to “intervene” in the hush money case against former President Donald Trump before the 2024 election — a move that experts say is a political stunt that faces significant legal obstacles.”
  • Exhibit B: “This House GOP is about to add another item to their long list of abnormal events: voting to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in ‘inherent contempt.’ Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said she will force a vote this week on the rarely used tool, which would direct the House sergeant at arms to take Garland into custody.”

SCOTUS Will Consider Ban On Transgender Care

The Supreme Court will take up Tennessee’s ban on transgender care for minors in its next term. The Biden administration was seeking Supreme Court review, so this isn’t one of those cases where the high court aggressively reached out to insinuate itself into a still-percolating area of the law.

🚨 Red Alert 🚨

Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern: Sonia Sotomayor Just Sounded a Dire Warning About Marriage Equality

Aileen Cannon Is Off The Chain

Another day, another pointless hearing (or two) in the Mar-a-Lago case, another tongue-lashing of a federal prosecutor by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon. Because media access to the courtroom is so limited, we’re left to pick through after the fact accounts from journalists in attendance:

Primary Day

  • NY-16: It’s put up or shut up time in the most closely watched primary today, where Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) is trying to hold off a strong challenge from Westchester County executive George Latimer (D) in a race in suburban NYC dominated by the Israel-Palestine conflict.
  • CO-04: Don’t look now but Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) appears poised to win today’s GOP primary in the new-to-her district she opted to run in because she feared losing her existing seat.
  • UT-Sen: For all intents and purposes, Utah will pick Mitt Romney’s replacement in the GOP primary today. Two candidates have emerged from the crowded field: Trump-backed local Mayor Trent Staggs and Rep. John Curtis, who is leading in the polls.

Officially Too Close To Call

The AP declared the final tally in the VA-05 GOP primary too close to call, with incumbent Rep. Bob Good trailing state Sen. John McGuire (R) by some 375 votes (some reports peg it at 373). Because the margin is less than 1%, Good is entitled to a recount but must pay for it himself because the margin is more than 0.5% threshold for a state-funded recount.

I Wondered About This …

How did Sen. Bob Menendez’s allegedly criminal water-carrying for Egypt play inside his Senate office? We got a glimpse of that in testimony yesterday from a former senior aide to Menendez at his ongoing federal corruption trial in Manhattan.

Right Wing Celebrates Assange Plea Deal

A court filing yesterday in the far-flung U.S. territory of the Northern Mariana Islands revealed that Julian Assange will be pleading guilty to a single felony count of illegally obtaining and disclosing national security material.

Assange is scheduled to appear in federal court in Saipan on Wednesday morning local time, where he is expected to plead guilty, be sentenced to time already served, and allowed to travel on to his native Australia, ending his decade-plus legal saga, much it spent in the Ecuadorean embassy in London and in a British jail.

How much things have changed since Julian Assange’s Wikileaks published its bombshells in 2010. It seems like a lifetime ago now. The political landscape surrounding Assange has been turned upside down (though a less generous reading might argue otherwise). To give you some sense of where the core of Assange’s support now comes from:

And of course Russia remains happy to tout Assange:

Just Say It!

A very lively and engaging read from CNN chief climate correspondent Bill Weir on the pressures local TV weatherfolk are under when it comes to speaking to their audiences candidly about climate change.

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Georgia Becomes First State To Mandate Election Intimidation Training for Law Enforcement — But At What Cost?

Election deniers have put states in a position of having to involve law enforcement more heavily in elections this fall. And while it’s a crucial step in the direction of better protecting poll workers and voters after right-wing chaos was injected into the 2020 election, the changes also have the potential to create an environment of intimidation at the polls. 

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The Palpable Pain In Texas

On the two year anniversary of the disastrous Supreme Court Dobbs ruling, which overturned Roe v. Wade, JAMA Pediatrics, a child and adolescent health journal, published a new study on the significant uptick in infant and newborn deaths in the state of Texas.

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New Thing Alert: Inside TPM

If you are an Inside member, you’re familiar with the Inside Briefings we’ve done over the years. We’re launching a new kind of briefing: Inside TPM. This will be a series of monthly interviews with TPM staffers (and down the road, potentially alumni and friends-of-site) to help readers and viewers and listeners better understand TPM and the people who work here.

In the first episode, I spoke with Josh Kovensky about covering the Trump hush money trial, what he learned from his time in Ukraine, and much more. I hope you enjoy and we’ll be back next month with another video.

Jan. 6 Prisoners Recorded A Podcast From Jail With A Camera Someone ‘Accidentally’ Gave Them

Some of the people who were convicted for their actions during the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol have insisted the unit where they were held before sentencing in the Washington D.C. jail is an abusive “gulag.” It’s also ground zero for a burgeoning media empire that appears to violate jail policy and features broadcasts starring people who were convicted for their role in storming the Capitol as former President Trump’s loss in the 2020 election was being certified. 

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The Nevada Fake Electors Prosecution May Be Fatally Flawed

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Nevada Fake Electors Case Dismissed

The criminal prosecution of the 2020 fake electors scheme in Nevada was undertaken in the wrong county, a state judge ruled Friday. The criminal case was filed in Clark County (Las Vegas) but the proper venue was Douglas County (Carson City, the state capital).

Normally this is not that big of a deal: The prosecutor, in this case the state attorney general, merely refiles the case in the right county.

The problem here: The statute of limitations has already run out, meaning it can’t simply be refiled in a different county.

Attorney General Aaron Ford plans to appeal the venue decision.

Do Yourself A Favor

Ignore all the expectations-setting “journalism” ahead of Thursday’s presidential debate. It’s pablum.

2024 Ephemera

  • Democrats, including the Biden campaign, are rolling out a day full of abortion-related messaging pegged to today’s two-year anniversary of the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.
  • North Carolina: Biden Is Pouring Millions Into a State Democrats Haven’t Won Since 2008
  • The Trump campaign is keeping a tight leash on things in the run up to the GOP convention in Milwaukee, via NBC News:

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign moved [last] week to quash a potential disturbance at next month’s GOP convention in Milwaukee by seeking to replace six delegates to the convention who they thought were potentially going to initiate “unnecessary distractions” on the floor. …

Days later, however, the Trump campaign abandoned efforts to replace the delegates, saying it “cleared the air” with the delegates who sparked the concerns after days of deliberation. 

Playing The Long Game

Politico’s Alice Ollstein reports on a new 10-year $100 million national campaign by a coalition of abortion rights groups to restore federal protections for the procedure.

Tell Me More …

New reporting from ABC News this morning about an unusual trip that Donald Trump took to Mar-a-Lago in the summer of 2022 that raised the suspicions of investigators in the classified documents case:

The previously unreported visit, which allegedly took place July 10-12 in the summer of 2022, was raised in several interviews with witnesses, sources familiar with the matter said, as investigators sought to determine whether it was part of Trump’s broader alleged effort to withhold the documents after receiving a subpoena demanding their return.

At least one witness who worked closely with the former president recalled being told at the time of the trip that Trump was there “checking on the boxes,” according to sources familiar with what the witness told investigators.

Mar-a-Lago Miscellany

  • U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon spent much of Friday hearing arguments on whether Jack Smith’s appointment as special counsel was constitutionally valid.
  • The hearing resumes today with separate arguments over whether the funding of Smith’s office has been proper.
  • Your occasional reminder that neither of these arguments are particularly novel nor have judges in other cases found them persuasive. But here we are on Day 2 of pretending otherwise.
  • Over the weekend, Special Counsel Jack Smith submitted a new filing in connection with his effort to persuade Cannon to modify the conditions of Trump’s release so he will stop his rhetorical attacks on law enforcement. He cited the attack on the FBI field office in Cincinnati in 2022 and the recent charges against a man who allegedly threatened an FBI agent in the Hunter Biden case.

Gag Order Update

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is asking the judge in Trump’s hush money case to leave the gag order against him mostly intact for the time being.

Good Read

NYT: Michael Flynn Has Turned His Trump-World Celebrity Into a Family Business

This Is Not Normal

An eloquent reaction to being targeted by MAGA from former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe:

Pelosi’s Husband’s Attacker Convicted On State Charges

Already facing a 30-year federal prison sentence for the attack on Paul Pelosi in his San Francisco home, David DePape was convicted Friday in state court of first-degree burglary, false imprisonment of an elder, threatening the family of a public official, kidnapping for ransom that resulted in bodily harm, and dissuading a witness by force or threat.

For Your Radar

Graham Allison and Michael J. Morell: The Terrorism Warning Lights Are Blinking Red Again

Historic Court-Martial Struggles To Find Jurors

Air Force Maj. Gen. Phillip Stewart is being court-martialed for alleged sexual assault, conduct unbecoming an officer, and controlling an aircraft within 12 hours of consuming alcohol, but the military is struggling to find a sufficient number of jurors holding either a higher rank or the same rank for longer than the accused. Stewart is only the second Air Force general to ever face a court-martial.

Life Imitating Art

Historian Kevin Kruse recounts how the precedent Louisiana is citing for requiring the 10 Commandments to be displayed in every classroom is at least partly rooted in Hollywood’s promotional campaign for Cecil B. DeMille’s 1956 epic of the same name starring Charlton Heston.

Messiah Complex Much?

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A Different Take On Jamaal Bowman, Israel & NY-16

I wanted to share a few thoughts on Tuesday’s primary in New York’s 16th congressional district, which pits Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) against Westchester County Executive George Latimer. It is apparently going to be the most expensive congressional primary ever. The headlines are that AIPAC itself, and a number of AIPAC adjacent pro-Israel groups, are pouring money into the race and Bowman is being wildly outspent. And that’s true. Limited polling suggests Latimer is a strong favorite. But this headline version misses a lot of the story. Or, more specifically, it mistakes cause and effect.

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Trump Ally Gets A Taste Of MAGA’s Medicine

Hello, it’s the weekend. This is The Weekender ☕

That’ll Do It

The attorney general in the state of Missouri, Andrew Bailey, is making a bunch of headlines for announcing on his podcast Thursday that he intends to sue the amorphous state of New York and officials there for what he describes as “their direct attack on our democratic process through unconstitutional lawfare against President Trump.”

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