As I noted below, we are now getting sufficiently dense data on the genetic lineages of COVID19 to map its introduction and spread within the United States – both in time and geography. The preliminary evidence suggests the epidemic in New York City began after COVID was introduced from Europe in mid-February. Perhaps there were isolated introductions earlier. Given the scale of international travel in and out of the city it seems hard to imagine there wasn’t. But it was this mid-February introduction that took root and exploded, ultimately infecting more than 1.5 million city residents and killing at least 20,000 people. Now that this virological, genomic history is coming into clearer view it is time to consider an alternative history of the epidemic, one in which the US fielded tests two or three weeks before the point of introduction to what would become the epicenter of the US epidemic.
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